Thursday, 31 December 2009

June 2010 - a good election to lose?

Just as England won a test match yesterday by losing the toss so losing in June 2010 might be a great result for the Tories. I fear we are headed for a 30s style depression organised as in the 30s by incompetent financial authorities and re-election seeking useless politicians.

The regulatory authorities and idiot politicians are demanding than banks hold much more capital than was previously required under Basel regulations of 8% of their lending book. This meant a bank could lend up to 12.5 times its risk adjusted regulatory capital. The bank regulators seem to want to double this halving the amount a bank can lend on its existing capital. Most banks have had rights issues to rebuild their capital but given the RBS balance sheet was something like twice the UK GDP it is clearly impossible to restore bank lending to its previous level in a short time. That is why bank crises take a long time to fix, say 5 to 10 years. So we are in for a tough decade!

The other way for banks to build up capital is to widen their margins and make more profits to retain as reserves. How do they do this? They jack up lending rates to borrowers hitting business and housebuyers and they reduce deposit rates paid to those with money, largely the retired. Everyone loses except the bankers!

Tim Congdon has just pointed this out describing the authorities as barmy. I agree but it is us who will have to pay. Even in Euroland loans to companies fell by a record 1.9% and M3 money supply fell 0.2%, the weakest performance since records began in 1970. So dear 'philes the Euro is no protection and the BU now expects for a second wave of the credit crisis in Germany especially among the Mittelstand firms.

I find it amazing that we are seeking to return to the same scenario that brought us so much pain. Its time for some good old fashioned Mrs Thatcher housekeeping and cutting the bloated public sector back to manageable size. But who will have the political courage do do this? Not Gordon or Dave for two! So Dave pray you lose in June for the sake of the country.

Wednesday, 30 December 2009

Europhile push for UK to enter the Euro

Today's DT business headline, "Britain's debt is now a riskier proposition than Italy's" means we can expect a new push for the UK to abandon Sterling and join the Euro. The factual basis of the article is that the yield on 10 year gilts exceeded that on 10 year Italian BTPs yesterday in intra-day as fears over Britain's financial credibility in money markets increased.

Despite the massive QE programme of money printing and gilt buying by the Bank of England which should have reduced gilt yields, since March gilt yields have increased by more than 100 basis points. At current levels this increases UK government long term debt servicing costs by 25%. The credit rating agencies have warned unless drastic action is taken soon to cut government spending the UK credit rating currently AAA will be downgraded and interest payments by us the taxpayers to service government debt will increase. Hedge funds have already sold short some £35bn of gilts in anticipation of gilt prices falling and gilt yields rising. The so called independent BoE continues to do the government's bidding and prints even more money.

The bond market as I have said frequently is sovereign as is the associated FX market. As a market's man I am not a great believer in economic theory but the very simple truths of supply and demand. If you increase the supply of Sterling and demand for Sterling by Jonny Foreigner falls on the market the the Sterling exchange rate against the Euro and Dollar will fall. The a huge cry of, 'We told you so. If we had joined the Euro this would not have happened to us etc etc', will arise from the 'philes led by that paragon of objective journalism the Beeb.

For someone like me who worked for the Government in 72 and 73 when Heath sold us out to the EU its the same argument repeated. Then Heath, in the face of opposition from organised labour especially the miners, could not run the country so we handed it over to the smart Jonny Foreigners in Brussels who did not have these strike problems and who knew how to run our country better than we did. Its deja vu all over again as Dubya said.

The truth is all is not hunky dory in Euroland with unemployment of 20% plus in Spain, Greece and indeed all of Club Med. The root of our problems lies in our rotten party political system which does not represent the real views of the UK populace and is dominated by a self seeking political elite that responds only to special interest groups. Special interest groups however do not pay the bills. That is done by middle England so let us have a little more of he who pays the piper call the tune and a lot less political correctness especially the smearing of decent people as Islamophobes or racists when they speak out in support of traditional British values of decency and fair play.

Wednesday, 23 December 2009

Lord Pearson, UKIP's Marshal Petain

By now even Lord P. must have started to realise that UKIP is not a political party but a Nigel Farage cult. I have never doubted Lord P is a decent, honourable man if a little confused in his loyalties. He is an instinctive Tory and does not wish to damage the Tory party whilst he clearly hates the EU and sees it in the UK interest to withdraw from the EU. Is he prepared to kill the Tories to achieve EU withdrawal? Well that is the question Lord P has to answer. Nigel Farage's answer seems to be No!

Just as Petain, the hero of Verdun, saw it in France's interests to collaborate with the Germans post 1940 and run a pseudo independent Vichy state where all important decisions he made had to be ratified by Adolf Hitler on whose troops Petain's regime depended, so Lord P runs a so-called party staffed by Farage's place men and salary men whose loyalty and reporting line is to Farage, not Lord P.

Lord P was of course naive not to realise this in the first place. He could have run a clean up and clear out campaign like Gerard, Nikki and Alan Wood but chose instead to let himself be controlled and managed by Malcolm Wood, a leading sycophant of the Farage cult. The truth was Lord P had neither the knowledge of UKIP or the political skill needed to run a leadership campaign. He is also a very poor public speaker.

The UKIP Farage cult is reasonably easy to control. Most of the members are elderly, decent, honest, politically naive people who cannot imagine the low tricks that the Cabal regularly indulge in to keep their snouts in the trough. The younger more active and politically aware members have been purged from the party many without even a Stalinist show trial.

Farage even vets who from UKIP or ex-UKIP Lord P. can invite to his healing meals in the House of Lords. Farage decreed the proposed guest list were virtually all his enemies and should not be entertained. Well I have heard of control freakery but never to this extent. What on earth does Lord P. think he can do with Farage controlling his every move?

Lord P. has to clean the stables or resign. To be his own man he has to demand the resignation of the entire NEC and find sufficient funds to set up a UKIP press office and staff it with his own people who owe their loyalty to UKIP not Nigel Farage. He has to organise fresh NEC elections via the ERS. I hear the Faragistas cry we have not got time before the General Election. I don't think it matters as we do not seem to have a GE campaign anyway! We don't have a chairman, campaign manager, organisation or strategy and are dependent on a EFD press office.

Far better to go to the country as a transparently clean party. It may work as the idiotic MPs and Lords are guaranteed to keep the expenses scandal running. The media will inevitably look at MEP's abuses of the system that are many and varied. UKIP would do better with a clean campaign rather than risk answering questions about where Farage's expenses are published, why he still employs his wife etc. Who knows what might emerge?

Let Farage take on Bercow in Buckingham. I wish him well and in Mrs Bercow, Farage has an incredible asset.

As in Vichy France the real believers in the cause had to go underground and fight a guerilla war so will many UKIP activists do the same. We do not wish to be linked with Farage's Liga Nord, neo Nazi associates in the EFD party of which he is joint leader. Lord P. should remember the old saw, "A man is known by the company he keeps", and how Marshal Petain is now remembered, not for Verdun, but for the Vichy collaborationist regime he lead.

Tuesday, 22 December 2009

The EU is the new French Empire, London will fall soon

Today's DT reports Sarkozy, "will use Michel Barnier to advance French interests". Would that we had the same attitude but we put anti-UK non-entities into non-jobs. What proper jobs has this Cathy Ashton woman ever done. She is nothing but a third rate Quango Queen! The French train their ablest people in their Grandes Ecoles. They make sure they subsequently do proper jobs in Finance, Government and Industry. Their diplomatic service keeps French interests paramount in all things and when a big international job pops up they always have a good well qualified candidate. La Ashton's CV with a degree in Sociology from Bedford College hardly marks her out as academically distinguished and since then CND administrator and Labour fanatic married to Kellner another Labour luvie. The real politicians of the French diplomatic core will effortlessly control her without her even knowing it!

What staggers me is Charlie McCreevy, the Irish Trade Commissioner for financial services, soon to be replaced by Barnier,needs to remark that Sarkozy regards EU posts as vehicles to advance French national interests. That has always been French policy since De Gaulle and the Treaty of Rome setting up the Common Market. It amazes me how our political elite over the last 50 years have chosen to sacrifice UK interests for an EU mess of potage which the French rightly see only as a way to further their world wide ambitions.

This will happen first with the new French type banking regulation forcing jobs out of the City to where? Who has most practice at manipulating French banking regulation? Why the French of course. That is how they came to dominate the EU. Set up a system based on French governance and you have a huge and persistent advantage over the poor old idealistic Brits and others. It has worked well for France in the last 50 years. The lucrative finance business will be stripped out of London. Most will go to Zurich, Geneva or some other tax haven but a sizeable chunk will end up in Paris and the remainder in Frankfurt. London will end up bit like Vienna, a fading capital of a once great empire.

Monday, 21 December 2009

Endgame for Club Med & UK

The bond market is sovereign and its power is limitless. The Greek bund spread is now 250 basis points and their credit rating has been downgraded by a second ratings agency. The same fate awaits the UK indeed one commentator remarked that if the word Greek was replaced by UK in the S&P downgrade note no other changes would be needed!

The UK bond market has one slight advantage. Its average debt duration is much longer than the Greeks so other things being equal the UK has to refinance less frequently than the Greeks. But other things are not equal. The volume of UK issuance needed over the next few years however is huge. To put things in everyday terms a 250 bp spread increases the cost of a £100k mortgage by over £200 per month.

The pressure on Greek society is becoming evident in strikes, riots and assaults on public figures. This behaviour is starting to spread to Italy and Spain. Can it happen in the UK. Well cast your mind back to the miners strikes against the Heath and Thatcher government. True the power of the unions is much diminished but as the BA strike vote shows it has not gone away. Worse, we now have a much less homogeneous society with Islam and immigrants taking jobs from the indigenous population real flash points especially given the increasing likelihood of an ignominious retreat from Afghanistan with significant UK casualties.

Then we have the EU dimension with increasing bank regulation and the flight of financial institutions from London helped by Darling Brown's crazy tax policies.

Not a happy prospect but it is in the bond market that the crack will come. Increasing yields will have to be offered to sell UK gilts internationally. Swap rates will rise as will mortgage fixes set of swaps. Unemployment will stay high. If the Tories win in May they will meet a ferocious response from the Unions that have been quiescent under LabCon but have built up a huge head of resentment and what better target than a government of Toffs and former members of the Buller.

Friday, 18 December 2009

Del Young's letter from Nuttall kicking him out of UKIP

This is the letter Del was sent from Nuttall on 1st April, an appropriate day for Nuttall. No one else was sent such a letter not even me. Note the usual lack of evidence, simply an anonymous smear is enough for Nuttall to kick an decent man who has worked hard for UKIP for 5 years out of the party. That says it all about UKIP's sordid Cabal.

There are many members of the Tory party in UKIP, some may even be on the NEC. Why do they not merit similar treatment?

Del Young has never been a member of the UK First Party.








Tuesday, 15 December 2009

UKIP Counterfactuals

Farage and his apologists like Denny and Croucher have always been quick
to accuse and smear UKIP members who disagree with them as malcontents, troublemakers, BNP moles or any other damaging accusation they can dredge up.

They are damaging the party, they are being disloyal is their parrot cry, all leading to vilification and eventual expulsion or de-selection for democratically elected representatives and those who wholeheartedly support our cause of withdrawal from the EU but who just happen to disagree with the Cabal. Never mind that Farage now leads a pan European party some of whose members are Nazi racists much more extreme in their racist views than the BNP eg shooting African
immigrants on the beaches.

The end result is that by now the Cabal must surely have purged UKIP of all undesirables going back to Alan Sked, *Richard Suchorzewski* etc. It is inconceivable that such dedicated and talented mole hunters as Farage, Denny, Bannerman, Croucher, Oxley, Duffy, Nuttall etc could have failed to root out (NF's Bournemouth Conference words) all the subversives in UKIP. In so doing they have roughly halved the membership since July 2004 but we must assume in the Cabal's view this is a price worth paying! Even so the true believers still continue to excoriate any who are see even talking to me or Del Young, presumably necessary to maintain the racial purity of the Farage cult which is what UKIP now is.

The counterfactual is to look at what would have happened if this ethnic
cleansing had not happened. Would UKIP have done worse in the European
elections? Would the party be in a worse position now to fight the
General Election? Would the party be in a worse state financially? The
answer to all these questions is an emphatic No!

UKIP did well in the Europeans because the LibLabCons collectively shot
themselves in both feet over the expenses scandal. If you had asked me pre the MP expenses scandal how UKIP could have won 13 seats I could not have given you any answer. Pre expenses scandal I thought UKIP would struggle to win 5 seats!

If the ethnic cleansing had not happened UKIP would have won more seats than they did. They would have had more activists and a a stronger MEP slate in all regions, a better run campaign, more joined up policies and in Del Young a superb spokesman to appeal to the LibLab vote. UKIP could have had even better European results!

Those kicked off the UKIP NEC argued strongly for financial prudence and against antagonising ElCom and perpetrating a court action UKIP was always going to lose at horrendous cost. David Abbott in particular
argued for acceptance of the initial £20k fine and concentrating our energies and resources on things like winning elections. Following David's line UKIP would be at least £600k better off than it is now!

We could have had a real leadership contest with possibly Del Young as leader compared with the disastrous Lord P whose agenda I suspect is very pro Tory. Del is an excellent media performer and would get UKIP votes from sectors of the electorate that wont touch Pearson with a bargepole. We would have had well scrutinised policies instead of Bannerman's rag bag of banalities. Del is also an excellent organiser and the party would have gone into the General Election with a sound structure, organisation and strategy. Currently we don't seem to have a new chairman, campaign director, structure or coherent election strategy.

We now have a leader whose knowledge of UKIP is only what Farage and Malcolm Wood tell him! He will only lead UKIP up to the Election and then what? Pearson should be out right now touring the country,
addressing branch and regional meetings rallying the troops as Del, Nikki or Gerard would have done but all Pearson seems to do is talk to his old Tory friends in the Lords and put his foot in it too boot. This is not the work of malcontents or moles but Farage's cabal.

The General Election is less than 5 months away. We don't have a chairman. We don't have a campaign manager. We don't have a chairman. What we have is a Cabal created shambles. I can only conclude the Cabal's agenda is to cripple UKIP and help the Tories as much as possible in this coming General Election. Their only other interest seems to be kicking activists out of UKIP.

What a gigantic con to perpetrate on UKIP's loyal membership!

Friday, 11 December 2009

Del Young's contemporary view on the John West affair

For the record, and with Del's agreement I publish below an email Del sent to John Whitaker copy to the whole NEC concerning John West's treatment by UKIP. It speaks for itself.

Date: Saturday, 26 July, 2008, 16:52

Saturday 26 July 2008

Dear Mr. Whitaker,

First of all let me say that I can sympathise with the fact that a stupid, selfish and destructive action concerning the posting of John West’s MEP media interview on YouTube by Annabelle Fuller has put you in a difficult position.

When the actions of others put us in difficult positions it can be highly frustrating, however given the circumstantial evidence that there is a 99% chance that this video was indeed posted by Miss Fuller, from your email I get the impression that you have not spoken to Miss Fuller indepth regarding this matter.

Instead you have chosen to email the National Executive of the party a fanciful story from Miss Fuller, which is hugely insulting to what little intelligence I possess.

Not only is it damaging to Mr. West that this video has been leaked, it is potentially far more damaging to the party that this video and Miss Fullers Comments – “UKIP are the Eurosceptic nutters” etc. - have ended up in the public domain, and indeed I believe it was posted for a time on the BNP website for god’s sake.

The leader and his disciples have always accused innocent hard working activists of doing things to damage the party and yet one of his most protected confidants has done immense damage to the party with her vengeful, spiteful actions.

As the Chairman of the party and NEC, your first loyalty should be to the best interests of the party and the cause for which we fight, but increasingly over the years you and the majority of NEC members seem to have put loyalty to the leader ahead of the interests of the members, the party and our cause.

As an NEC member I have a duty to work with the elected leader of the party to take our cause forward, but I do not owe that duty blindly and unquestioningly – I have to balance what help or support I give to our leader with the best interests of the party, its members and our objectives.

It has been an open secret within the party that Miss Fuller was under the protection of the party leader and that is why on many occasions Miss Fuller has written things on internet forums that were hugely offensive to members, including certain NEC members and yet no action has ever been taken against her.

Indeed there was a particular series of postings on an internet forum regarding Tom Wise & Roger Knapman a year or two ago by an individual and Miss Fuller which caused some concern to me in so much that this individual and Miss Fuller must have had first hand and unrestricted knowledge of the matter.

At that time I raised my concerns to the NEC and they were minuted regarding persons in the press office having access to information of a sensitive nature and not handling it with confidentiality and care.

I later found out that the person in question was Miss Fullers partner and I was assured by Clive Page that Miss Fuller would not make any future postings and that she had been warned about her behaviour.

Yet after a couple of months Miss Fuller was once again posting on Internet forums commenting in ways unbecoming of a professional member of this party.

Indeed she stated on the Independence and Democracy forum that she is not answerable to the party, instead claiming that she reported to someone in the European parliament and yet it seems she has open licence to abuse UKIP’s name, members and NEC.

If Miss Fuller chooses to resign from whatever positions she holds or indeed from the party before a disciplinary hearing can be arranged, if that is deemed appropriate, there is little that you can do.

However I still believe you should have had a meeting with Miss Fuller to establish all the facts in this matter and prepared a report for the NEC to consider, at the specially convened meeting Eric Edmonds requested and any response to the wider members then agreed by the NEC, instead of this Hollywood fantasy involving a taxi driver and a mysterious computer specialist - I did not realise Stephen Spielberg had joined the party!

Miss Fuller’s actions have left the party with a potentially very large can of legal worms and a high risk of financial liability, I understand that Mr. West has now engaged lawyers and intends to sue the party, as it was UKIP that was responsible under the data protection act and not Miss Fuller.

I would also like to point out that all members of the NEC are liable and responsible for any financial liabilities of the party.

I also believe that the police will be interviewing Mr. West in the near future with a view to launching an investigation and that the information commissioner to whom this matter has been reported may also conduct an investigation, which may lead to the party receiving a sizeable fine.

So you see Mr. Whitaker, Miss Fuller may have walked off into the sunset, whilst we are left to face the music and the possibility of picking up a number of huge bills and your email has done very little to help matters and gives the impression we are running for political numpties of the year award (hotly contested with Gordon Brown I believe).

I suspect that this may not be the last we see of Miss Fuller with regards to UKIP and the InDem group and their activities, I rather suspect that she will be employed by someone connected to UKIP or as a consultant in the 2009 campaign and hence again given the right to apparently speak on behalf of the party.

What has happened to Mr. West has been totally hurtful, unprofessional and hugely unacceptable on all levels, however sometimes we cannot control what happens to us, but we can manage the effects of what happens to us.

As an NEC member I want to work with you and the other members of the NEC in managing this very fine mess once again, created by someone under the protection of the party leader.

Firstly I would respectfully suggest that you write a letter on behalf of yourself and the NEC unreservedly apologising to Mr. West and call an extraordinary NEC meeting as requested by Eric Edmonds so that we can work through and manage where possible, repair where we can, apologise where we must and ensure that the party does not find itself in this position again.

There is an increasingly distasteful pattern appearing in the party, that when party members raise concerns or lodge complaints, they are treated with disdain, contempt and viciousness and in some cases are openly attacked or have lies told about them.

There also seems to be a general refusal to investigate complaints, which in turn leads to further dissatisfaction and trouble that could have been avoided in the first place.

Dr. David Abbott stressed at the NEC meeting in July that we really need to investigate John West’s and others complaints, because failure to do so upsets the activists and rubs the members up the wrong way, sadly his request as per usual appears to have fallen on deaf ears.

Mr. Whitaker you are a very intelligent man and I know you are better than this.

Loyalty to our leader is admirable and should be encouraged, but that loyalty cannot take precedence over the interests of the members and our cause, if the leader is hell-bent on taking us down a very narrow political dead end, there is no good to come from us ignoring the signs and pretending that we cannot see the dangers that lie ahead – it is our duty to advise the leader that he must change direction – this is not disloyal, this is common sense.

At the NEC meeting in June I tried to point out to our leader some of things he needs to change and some of the things that he needs to change, including certain personnel, to get the party back on the right road but this also fell on deaf ears.

We need to have a clear functional and effective strategy, working closely with our branches and our activists in moving forward and growing the party, as our hardest task is to educate the British people on the dangers of the Political EU.

Simply concentrating on returning as many MEP’s as possible in 2009, whilst maybe being admirable and right is not a wholesale or effective strategy for achieving what we must achieve in the UK .

One does not have to like the messenger, but it does help on the odd occasion to listen to the message.

Please call an extraordinary NEC meeting for early in August so that as an NEC we can ask the relevant questions and uniformly manage this mess.

The NEC needs to get back and manage this party as laid down in the constitution, as there are far too many individuals or little groups who are unaccountable to the NEC and yet are making decisions or taking actions whilst being given licence and protection by the leader to use UKIP’s name, sometimes causing damage to the party’s name or members, whilst the NEC is responsible and liable for any recriminations.

It is time for us to stop being the see no evil, hear no evil, but do much evil club.

I have no doubt I will be branded mal-content or trouble maker etc. as usual, however I can assure you that I have just one agenda, and that is to save this country from the political EU and to make this party as strong and effective as it can be to achieve that aim.

Yours truly,

Del

John West wins in court against UKIP

When on UKIP NEC I opposed the despicable treatment John West received at the hands of the UKIP cabal. This matter is now running on the democracy forum and I copy the post I made there below in response to a comment made by Tony Butcher describing the incident as 'an unfortunate episode'.

"Tony, it was not an unfortunate episode, it was a deliberate nasty attempt to smear a decent honest man who had worked hard for UKIP in the Eastern region to ensure he would not be on the Eastern Region MEP slate and hence enhance Bannerman's prospects in the MEP selection poll. It was for this same reason that Robin Page was fiddled off the UKIP Eastern region MEP slate on very spurious grounds.

Bannerman had a clear interest in this matter but I do not recollect him recusing himself from the NEC discussion of the John West or Robin Page issues.

Del, David and I fought hard at the NEC for exactly the course you suggest, an unreserved apology by John Whittaker, then party chairman, to John West. We also asked for a full internal investigation to establish who posted this person's confidential material. My understanding was that the only people who had access to this video were Clive Page & Annabelle Fuller. I also understand Nigel Farage saw all these trial media videos.

John Whittaker stated at the NEC that he was 'not minded to take the matter further' and left John West with no option but to take court action to defend his reputation.

Sending little Arnott and Reeve to represent UKIP was pathetic. It was a job for the party chairman, presumably still Paul Nuttall until Pearson replaces him, and UKIP's solicitor and NEC member, Zuckerman. Their failure to appear in court to put UKIP's case speaks volumes.

I should add that Zuckerman and Bannerman were on the NEC that considered what action to take on this matter. They both supported the do nothing line. They are both still on UKIP NEC. David Abbott and I were voted off the NEC on charges trumped up by Bannerman. Del was so disgusted he refused to stand again for the NEC. Nuttall subsequently threw him out of UKIP on other erroneous charges.

It was a sordid and disgraceful episode that I know David, Del and I still feel soiled and dirtied by. We did all we could to rectify the situation. The Cabal has an overwhelming majority on UKIP NEC. The UKIP constitution allows them to remove on trumped up charges democratically elected members from the NEC who disagree with their actions."

I should add that the jockying for position on MEP lists in UKIP is a sordid business. EU MEPs are not elected on their own merits. They are party nominees voted onto an ordered list by party members. The amount of money, easily over a million ponds that finds its way into MEPs pockets makes people of little ability and qualifications behave quite disgracefully as they cannot hope for such recompense in any other walk of life. The late Piers Merchant, returning officer for these party elections, wrote a scathing report on improper practices in many regions but particularly the Eastern Region where I know his view was the whole election should be re-run.

There is no doubt in my mind that had Robin Page and John West been included on the Eastern MEP slate they would have come very high up the list indeed.

In the North West, the poll was originally won by Greg Beaman whom Farage dislikes. Within one day of winning he stood down in murky circumstances in favour of Farage's favourite Nuttall who had finished second in the poll.

In my own region the South West Malcolm Wood, the then RO, arranged speaking engagements for the Earl of Dartmouth at a number of the larger branches. Alan Wood protested that this was unfair to other candidates. Wood desisted but of course a number of these speeches had already been given. Malcolm Wood is now employed by the Earl as an advisor.

In the South East it was quite disgraceful that Andreasen, then not even a member of UKIP although waived through by ex Tory MP Chris Gill, was put on the South East slate.

In London there was similar shenanigans and Gerard Batten had to fight very hard against some dirty tricks to win through.

As St Paul said, "The love of money is the root of all evil"

Wednesday, 9 December 2009

Greek Debt Downgraded

As I predicted Greek debt has been down graded from A to BBB+ by Fitch, the smallest of the rating agencies. They say this reflects "concerns over the medium term outlook for public finances given the weak credibility of fiscal institutions. I would expect the rating to go down further to BBB. If it drops another 3 notches to BB- it cannot be used as collateral in the ECB' Repo operations, ie its only use is as toilet paper.

Fear not, EU commissioner Almunia is ready to ride to the rescue with officials to help the country get to grips with is budget deficit. So the EU will run Greek economic policy. Can the UK be far behind?

Downgrades come not singly but in battalions at least for Dubai state linked company bonds. Bad news for their bond holders so step forward Lloyds TSB, Barclays etc. Time for Super Brown to get his underpants on over his trousers. Meanwhile the Japanese fiscal crisis staggers on. Its as long running as the Mousetrap in the West End and shows just how long bank crises take to fix.

Our very own Darling Mr Badger announced this afternoon another host of 'tough' decisions. Are there any other sort in LibLabCon speak? No brainers would let us all sleep at night but as none take effect until after the Election there is no immediate need for the sleeping pills.

Meanwhile the Irish have got the hair shirts on in a big way. They have cut child benefit by 10% and Reuters state,

"The salary of the prime minister will be reduced by 20 percent. This reduction, together with the pension levy means the prime minister's salary will be cut by close to 30 percent in total. Ministers and Secretaries General of Government Departments will take a pay cut of 15 percent: an overall cut of close to 25 percent when the pension levy is taken into account."

Wow!

The obviously don't want to end up like Greece with Mr van Rumpy or La Ashton sent over to run Ireland properly. Seriously they really have made difficult decisions starting with the fat cats at the top. I applaud them. Would that we would do the same starting with the self satisfied, smug BBC.

Monday, 7 December 2009

UKIP's must target LibDem seats.

Starting from UKIP's aim of complete withdrawal from the EU the only way this can be achieved is by a vote in the Houses of Commons to repeal the 1972 European Community Act. The most likely scenario to achieve this is UKIP holding the balance of power in a hung parliament and supporting an agreed Tory programme including repeal of this Act. Whatever Cameron says his overarching aim is to be PM and get his statue up in Eton with their other former PMs. Note that this is not the same as having an electoral pact with the Tories of any kind. It will arise in parliament after a General Election with the Tories as the largest single party.

The current balance of power position is held by the LibDems and as Alan Wood noted UKIP must seek to replace them by winning enough Tory plus LibDem seats. I cannot conceive UKIP winning Labour held seats but I can see the Eurosceptic BNP doing this! Also, many LibDem seats were former Tory seats so UKIP has a target vote to aim at. Attacking the LibDems will be popular with Tory voters throughout the country so there is some synergy there. So how does UKIP attack the LibDems?

The LibDems are Euro fanatics. The Tories are ambivalent about the EU and even Labour are luke warm about the EU project - ask Bob Crow. But in LibDem eyes the EU can do no wrong and they support each and every EU new policy enthusiastically. We will require the EU's assistance in producing a series of policies that can be portrayed as damaging UK interests but given Sarkozy's recent gloating I have high hopes the EU will be our best ally in this matter.

The current state of the parties in the latest YouGov poll is:

Con 40
Lab 27
Lib Dem 18

UKIP 6
Green 3
SNP / PCY 3
BNP 3


so you see we have nationally quite a gap to close! But in some constituencies UKIP has been crucial in upsetting the Tories e.g. Eastleigh 2005 where UKIP's vote was three times Huhne's majority over the Tories

The LibDems are well known for being devious and slippery and saying different things in different constituencies. Reneging on the referendum on the Lisbon Treaty was a minor misdemeanour by that party's standards. Nevertheless the current attempts by the EU to destroy the City of London provides plenty of ammunition to attack the LibDems with. Their recent U turn on their mansion tax is also good for a bit of fun. Whose house is valued at just over £1 mn the previous tax threshold? Nick Clegg! Who will pay zero tax under LibDem revised mansion tax? Nick Clegg.

The real vote winner is to link every grievance on jobs, immigration even university student places to the EU. Try finding out how many non-UK EU students are being given undergraduate places at Oxford and Cambridge financed by the British taxpayers! You will find the University authorities very coy on this subject and 'we dont keep these figures'. Well every place to a Continental student is one less for a British student. How many British students are given places at one of Frances Grandes Ecoles! Err um close to zero.

So attacking the LibDems is not difficult but the trick is top ensure the votes go to UKIP not the Tories.

The easiest way to do that is to portray the Tories as not to be trusted on the EU. A reiteration of all the past Treaties the Tories have signed with the EU giving the UK away to the EU, Nice, Maastricht etc is a good start but Cameron's obfuscation on repatriating powers provides plenty
of ammo. Just keep on asking how!

Finally I wish Nigel Farage every success in his candidacy for Buckingham. Mrs Bercow is doing a great job for Nigel alienating the local Tories big time so Nigel has an excellent chance of winning!

What UKIP needs nationally is another expenses scandal but I fear things may play the other way this time after OLAF has done its work.

Saturday, 5 December 2009

Lord Pearson rows back to the Eton boating song

I have never doubted that Lord P unlike Farage, Andreasen and Bannerman believes in the UKIP withdrawal from the EU cause. However, as my mother used to say, the road to Hell is paved with good intentions. Let us start first with Lord Pearson's latest effort to repair the damage he has caused. I reproduce his missif to all below that I seems to have been drafted by Malcolm Wood or someone of his ilk. It shows an alarming level of naivete!
logo Press Office
2 Queen Anne's Gate
London SW1H 9AA
Dear UKIP members,

Many of you have concerns about recent media coverage, and I want to answer some of them now.

We did anticipate that sections of the Conservative Press would attack UKIP in general and the new leader in particular. We were proved right and I must admit to a certain satisfaction at having drawn fire so quickly.

Naturally some media stories will be written to deliberately upset members and lose us future supporters. They will sometimes be false and frequently twisted, or 'spun' and there will be more of them. They are now out to get us, and we should be flattered by this overt recognition of the threat we pose. My appeal to each of you is to keep your nerve and treat the media with the caution it richly deserves.

Now for a few facts. The word "disband" has been taken out of context. In a long interview for the Times profile last Saturday, I was looking forward to the great day when we are out of the EU, after winning an 'in or out' referendum (a referendum delivered by Cameron after we had stood aside and helped him into 'Government'). On that day there would have been a complete realignment of British politics, led by a triumphant UKIP, with the political class rebuffed. It is in thinking about this happy prospect that I may have used the 'disband' word, and if I did it was a mistake and I shouldn't have done so. The party will never be mine to disband. That is a matter for the members alone.

As for the proposed deal with the Conservatives to stand aside at the 2010 election only, we knew that David Cameron was most unlikely to accept, because he is fully committed to membership of the EU. That's why he does not want an In or Out referendum. But - and this is important- we had to ask.

By rejecting the deal he has proved that he would rather risk losing the next general election (because of UKIP's participation) than consult the people of Britain on EU membership. Next time a Tory cries: "Vote UKIP and you'll let in Labour," you can reply: "We gave them the chance and the Conservatives refused it. Roll on the election." I feel this has turned out to be quite a coup for us, and we should be shouting it from the rooftops. We put our country before our party and they did the opposite.

I must also settle any worries that UKIP is merely the eurosceptic wing of the Conservative Party. This is not true. Under my leadership, UKIP will continue to target seats right across the political spectrum. The Labour vote will collapse at the next general election, and we must go all out for it as well as for that of the Lib Dems, many of whose members do not realise how Eurofanatic their party is.

I am proud to be the leader of such a marvellous Party.

Yours sincerely,

Malcolm Pearson


Lord Pearson of Rannoch
UKIP Leader.

The 'attack' by the Daily Telegraph was the same as the DT dished out to the LibLabCon MPs and Peers over expenses and house flipping and involvement in dodgy foreign financial transactions. It is not a personal attack on Pearson but part of a generic, long overdue, attack on the political elite of which Pearson is a fully paid up member.

The Telegraph did not twist facts as Pearson/Wood claim. The facts are on record and speak for themselves. As for quotes out of context, that is the bread and butter of UK politics. The media is constrained by time and space and will condense any interview to a few headline grabbing comments. Andrew Neil last week made it clear to Pearson he did not have the time to listen to Pearson's waffle.

Why offer a deal if you know it will be rejected? UKIP looks stupid and the Tories gain.

Will UKIP contest seats held by Tories who are members of the BOO, better off out group? Pearson is silent on that but will get grilled on it very soon by the media. The safest answer is to contest all Tory seats but he will fudge and waffle about it.

He shows how far out of touch he is with the vast majority of the UK populace if he thinks the collapsing Labour vote will go to UKIP! He is an old Etonian Tory ennobled by Mrs Thatcher whom the Labour voters loathed and blame for all the ills of our country. They would rather vote for the BNP who at least are not tainted with Thatcherism. Get on your bike Lord P as Norman Tebbitt , another Thatcherite Lord told the workers in the 80s!

Thursday, 3 December 2009

How not to do Politics the Bannerman way

I have never doubted that Lord Pearson wants us out of the EU. His problem is he still hankers after his first love Hilda and the Tories. He is a businessman and lacks political skills. He joins a long list of tycoons the latest being Alan Sugar who have failed to hack it in the political arena.

Even given his failings Pearson is preferable to Bannerman, the worst sort of political careerist, failed Tory, former Europhile, prepared to say anything to get elected but believes in nothing except himself. Cick on link below and watch right through to the Ashton woman's reply.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rOhib_SIs40

It is the most sick making toe cringing performance I have ever seen from a UK politician. Has Eastern Region no better MEP candidates than this windbag? Did the UKIP voters of Eastern Region send Bannerman to Strasbourg to quaff champagne and exchange compliments with NuLabour crony Lady Ashton?

I have heard of chanpagne Socialists but now we have a self confessed champagne UKIP careerist.

Wednesday, 2 December 2009

The Political Naivete of Lord Pearson

On Monday, St Andrew's day, Alec Salmond, the ablest current UK politician for my money, announced his plans to hold a referendum in Scotland on in or out of the Union. Alec was very clear on one point that seems to have escaped Lord P viz, under the British Constitution a referendum is only consultative and cannot bind the government of the day to the action approved by the electorate. Only a vote in Parliament in Lords and Commons and signed off by the Queen has the force of law. The Parliament Act means the Lords can theoretically thwart the will of the Commons for one year but of course they would be inviting their own dissolution if they invoked this power.

Hence Lord P's claim if we get an out vote in a referendum UKIP have won and can disband is complete bollocks. The Government can fall back on the same argument as Heath used in 72 not to grant a referendum, ie that we have a parliamentary system, parliament is sovereign and only a vote in parliament can repeal the 72 European Community Act. As I said earlier this week its only bums on green leather that can get us out of the EU.

How different it is in Switzerland where, against the wishes of the Swiss government, media and the great and the good of the Swiss establishment the electorate cheerfully voted to stop the building of Islamic minarets as they were basically un-Swiss. That binds the Swiss government to that action. I wish we had the same system here.

Even that is not the end of the story. Today the DT reports the UN High Commissioner for Human Rights, one Navi Pallay, claiming the ban was the product of scaremongering.

"I hesitate to condemn a democratic vote, but I have no hesitation at all in condemning the anti-foreigner scaremongering that has characterised political campaigns in a number of countries including Switzerland which helps produce reults like this."

Perhaps Mr Pallay would like to condemn the Saudis who arrest Christians for carrying the bible and a religion which condems those Muslims who convert to another religion to death plus a horde of other human rights violations especially for women!

Tuesday, 1 December 2009

More Pearson revelations in todays DT

Following on Pearson's expenses claims today's D.T. details how he avoided paying capital gains tax of £250000 on the profit from the sale of his London house by telling the Inland Revenue it was his principal residence at the same time as telling the House of Lords authorities for the purpose of claiming expenses that his house on his Perthshire estate was his main home. Lords rules state, "Members whose main residence is within Greater London cannot claim overnight subsistence". Pearson, according to the yesterday's Telegraph has claimed £115683 for overnight subsistence since 2001. The Telegraph also state that in the same period Pearson claimed £56865 for daily subsistence i.e. food, drink, transport etc. The latter does not require receipts only attendance at the Lords on the days for which claims are submitted.

What does Lord Pearson have to say on these Jacky Smith practices? Well in July Lord P said of the MPs expenses scandal that it exposed, "a growing gulf between us, the political class, and the British people. Lord P obviously had first hand experience of what he was talking about! This comes on top of allegations in the Observer that Pearson's company, PWS, is involved in a bribes scandal in Costa Rica. I quote the Observer headline,

"The insurance business that made the fortune of the new leader of the UK Independence party (Ukip) is embroiled in an international bribery scandal that could lead to criminal charges in the UK, according to documents obtained by the Observer."

Reading this the UKIP faithful must be choking over their corn flakes. After all they voted for a Lord! Well as anyone who watched last night's C4 Dispatches programme on the links between UK Lords and Russian oligarchs will realise the title Lord is not now a stamp of probity and integrity. The truth is it never was but many decent people are conned by it. Many years ago, when he was a teenage scribbler for the FT, Nigel Lawson wrote a very perceptive piece on how to assess the competence and probity of a listed company board of directors. You start with 100 and for every Sir you deduct 10 and for every Lord 20. Don't invest when the score goes negative! Try it on any shares you own. Nigel Lawson was by a mile the smartest and best Chancellor in my life time.

No one, including me, is saying Lord P has done anything illegal but the problem is he has done, and is saying the same things as, every other sleazy LibLabCon politician named in the expenses scandal. As my granny used to say, "A man is known by the company he keeps".