Saturday, 29 December 2012

UKIP MEP musical chairs

The current spat between Neil Hamilton and Marta Andeasen chronicled by Junius is the first round in what promises to be a long game of musical chairs for UKIP MEP slots. UKIP will certainly win more MEPs in the 2014 Euro elections and out of the woodwork will crawl a largely talentless collection of wannabee UKIP MEPs who want to get on the £ 1 million pound guaranteed gravy train that a high spot on the UKIP slate brings.

The downside to party list systems of voting is you don't vote for a candidate as you do in a UK parliamentary election you vote for a party. After party votes representatives are picked of a pre ranked list of candidates submitted by each party and declared as elected representatives of the people by the EU. So who ranks the candidates on the UKIP lists. Well last time it was done on a democratic vote of UKIP members in the region but under the new constitution Farage pushed through list places will be allocated by the NEC however as many members of the NEC want to be on the MEP lists I estimate only half the elected members will be able to vote on these list rankings.

UKIP's web site shows an NEC of 13 elected member and 5 ex-officio, ie unelected Farage nominated members. Farage attends all meetings of UKIP NEC something which does not appear under the NEC  section of UKIP's website. I wonder why not?

The truth is Farage defacto controls UKIP's NEC. Its a manipulated system. Those elected to UKIP's NEC are frequently nominated, seconded or asseted by Farage. That counts hugely with the UKIP ordinary members who vote for such Farage endorsed candidates thinking they are supporting the great leader. It works in reverse when the leadership election comes round. These Farage endorsed NEC members and UKIP MEPs endorse Farage and once more the ordinary members think they are supporting the UKIP leadership. They are but what they don't realise that the people they are voting for are largely there for their own selfish reasons rather than furthering UKIP's aims.

Ms Andreasen seems now to find herself on the wrong side of this system. She appears to have lost the leader's favour. Worse the leader it seems now smiles on Neil Hamilton an elected member of the NEC and widely expected to be a UKIP MEP candidate in the SW region. She is quoted by Junius as considering herself an elected representative of the British people. What is her address in the UK? What does she do in the UK? Other than Brussels where else does she reside?

I opposed Farage at the NEC over allowing Ms Andreasen onto any UKIP slate in 2009 as she did not meet 5 or 6 of UKIP's stated and published candidate criteria. Using his control over the NEC Farage pushed her improper candidacy through. What is to stop this happening many more times for the 2014 Euro elections? Nothing, in fact given his new constitutional powers it will be easier for Farage to get his own nominees onto every slate in the country. Last time there were three of us on the UKIP NEC, myself, David Abbot and Del Young prepared to speak out for upholding UKIP candidacy rules. We are gone. Who will speak for UKIP rules now in this matter? Who on the UKIP NEC dares oppose Farage?



Monday, 24 December 2012

Farage's flaws come under attack

The Hanseatic league was a loose trading confederation run by groups of merchants in the Hansa towns, Lubeck, Bremen, Hamburg Bruges etc. Each town gave away as little as possible but gave what was needed to maintain the league. It dominated North West Europe from the 13th up to the end of the 15th century. They had no standing army and avoided wars as far as possible however one town, Lubeck mobilised 50000 men when needed at a time when the King of England could barely raise 10000 men. The Hansa preferred commercial pressure and diplomacy to achieve their aims. It was far more cost effective and less damaging to wealth. The Hansa had no political elite and despised aristocrats. Wealth creators ruled. Emphasis on the plural!

This is EUKIP's problem. It has no plurality of leadership. Its a one man band or cult with Farage as cult leader and band. This makes it an easy target for the pro EU media to attack and defeat. Decapitate and defeat will be the EU phile strategy and it will succeed. I recorded the Andrew Neil Sunday politics show broadcast on 16th Dec and switched it on when I got back. There was Farage and there was Andrew Neil, a closet Eurosceptic, deploying exactly this strategy in an interview throwing everything at NF . Farage batted it away prety well as the delicious Isabel Oakeshott remarked but when the subject turned to Nigel's nasty EU friends things became more difficult.

Farage survived this time but it is the shape of things to come. As A Neil remarked at the end if you lie down with dogs you get fleas and NF by this token must have quite a lot of fleas by now and its only a matter of time before the media start finding them.Add that to the attack by Verhofstadt on Farage trousering EU funds big time, click on link to watch, and you cannot see Farage surviving.

This has always been the basis of my opposition to Farage as leader. He comes with such a huge downside and baggage to which he is intent on adding with the Hamiltons. Its a surefire losing strategy. A leader who is so vulnerable to opposition attacks is a liability no matter how many positive assets he has. Once his flank is turned he is finished and because he is EUKIP the party is finished.

Then there is of course the enemy within, Marta Andresen and Gerard Batten who fear their deselection by NF and losing their place on the EU gravy train. Both have I gather written virtually public letters opposing their possible deselection. Much good it will do them. When on the NEC I warned Farage that Andresen should not be put on any UKIP MEP slate as she failed six of the criteria to be a candidate. Worse she is the embodiment of the EU dream of breaking down nation states, a foreigner living outside the UK representing a UK region.

Strategically therefore Andresen is a huge political danger to UKIP and she will not hesitate to exploit this. Batten is a lesser danger whom Farage can brush aside as a bad loser. He cannot do that with Andresen whom he so assiduously promoted and for whom Gill was happy to waive candidate eligibility rules.

Alas poor UKIP. Its on a good wicket right now but its main and only batter is so easy to dismiss and they don't have any others when he fails as he will. Its not that EUKIP won't get us out of the EU they simply can't get us out of the EU.

Learn from the Hansa. Have a dispersed group doing as little as possible to maintain the common interest whilst looking out for themselves ie a Europe of nation states with a common defence treaty called NATO. That will be our salvation. Its what we had before our political elite gave it away. Its time to go for a Hansa style direct democracy. Have MPs by all means but leave all major decisions in the hands of the people as the Swiss do. Its the political class we have to fight first and that includes Nigel Farage.

Thursday, 13 December 2012

Farage on Newsnight special

I write as I am about to set off on my voyage round the Hanseatic cities of North Europe. It will be very cold but amor vincit omnia but no blogs till Xmas.

Whilst packing last night I switched on Newsnight click on link to see it for yourself. Farage gave a decent performance, picked out the usual BBC big lie at the start about 50% of our exports go to Europe. The true figure as NF pointed out is 38% and falling. Tim Congdon made a video tape appearance to point out the huge imbalance in our trade with the EU. The other anti EU panelist was Terry Smith well known for speaking the truth in the City these many years plus some Norwwegian woman to balance the pro Eu woman. Terry nailed the lie about business leaving the City if we left the EU. The exact opposite is the truth. If we stay in the business will drain away to Paris and Frankfurt now the EU have got their act together and made the ECB the pan Eurozone banking regulator. The EU always tells very big lies.

The discussion followed its usual course on inward investment etc. This was how the 1972 debate went and it was a huge strategic error by the anti-EU side. This country is much more than a few car and other plants set up by here today gone tomorrow multi-nationals. Germany succeeds because of its German owned companies of all sizes who are loyal to Germany. All multi-nationals are loyal to are seedy tax havens where they can avoid paying tax others are expected to pay. Farage has to make this link whilst the the Googles and Amazons are in bad odour.

The other link Farage must make is why so many financial firms choose to locate in the City. A large factor in this is the trust investors have in the Common Law of England under which City contracts are written. There is a huge body of case law on these contracts and if a dispute has to go to court non UK companies know they will get a fair and just hearing. Just watch what happens to BP in US courts. Spain is in mess because its property law is in a mess and if you buy in Spain you do not know if you will get the property. Its the same in many other Eurozone countries.

Add in the EAW which allows anyone to be hauled of to rot in some Latin/Balkan gaol on the say so of a corrupt police service and you have plenty of reasons to pull out before we even come to human rights.

The BBC were as pro EU as ever. Time to turn the heat up on Fat Pang.


Tuesday, 11 December 2012

UK Census truth and Italy's Monti departs

The figures released by the UK census today show how far and how fast the foreign invasion of our country is happening. Only 46% of London's population are now white indigenous Britons. The  inner London birth figures show fewer and fewer babies born to mothers who themselves were born in the UK. Its now less than 40%. Worst of all the Deputy Director of the Census smugly states it show how 'diverse', whatever that means, the UK population has become. Sorry, missus the figures show about 7 million net immigration in 10 years. The immigrants come mainly from India,. Pakistan and Poland.The country simply cannot possibly absorb such an invasion of non-English speaking people seeking work.

It is a myth peddled by unscrupulous corporate bosses that this immigration is good for the UK. This is shameless self interest to acquire the cheapest possible unregulated labour. They don't care about the pressure these immigrant's children put on our own poor people seeking work, housing, health care services and a decent education for their children. How many of Dave's posh boy colleagues children go to schools where 90% of the pupils do not have English as a native language?

Worst of all these figures are a huge underestimate. Illegal immigrants don't fill in census forms!

This is inevitably going to lead to the River Tiber foaming read with blood as Virgil wrote and Powell quoted in his famous speech. I t won't be the fault of the people driven to despair. The blame belongs with our cynical Labour political elite who opened the immigration floodgates for electoral self interest knowing these immigrants will vote Labour and to self serving employers seeking cheap labour and not obeying employment law.

In Italy I am glad Monti is going and Belusconi is back in the game. AEP's piece in today's DT shows just why out of the Euro under Berlusconi Italy would be a real success story. Best of all the Bunga bunga man sorted out the Italian pensions mess before the EU deselected him. As a heterosexual, EUKIP deselected democratically elected representative I feel I have a lot in common with Berlusconi I just don't have the same opportunities to indulge my heterosexual tastes.

A new Italian election will be held early in the New Year. I expect Farage's friends in the neo fascist Liga Nord to do very well. Will Nigel go canvassing for them in the election? I do hope so./

Monday, 10 December 2012

Nads, Enoch, Foot and Greek bonds

I watched Nads from the jungle give a great performance on the Andrew Neil show on Sunday in a film shot of her talking to her constitiuents in Mid Beds and replusing the redoubtable Mr Neil in a Skype interview. The latter was all the more impressive as it came after a lack lustre performance from my former oppo BoE Matthew, call me Matt, Hancock now a Business Dept minister in a studio grilling from AN.

The difference was plain to see. It was Nads who had the balls, wit and humour and Matt who was  destined for the eunuchs who guard Dave's harem in Downing Street. Nads is clearly well liked in her constituency and communicates easily with them in terms they understand. She is a working class lass from Liverpool and the comparison withh PPE posh boys like Matt Hancock showed just why the Tories are going to be out of power for another 15 years after the next election.

The man from Witney posted a great link on his blog over the weekend to a radio discussion between Powell and Foot that must have been recorded in late 73 early 74. I advise you to click on link and listen for the full 45 minutes. It shows how far the standards of political debate have slipped in the last 38 years.

I was very interested as I worked in the Civil Service 71 to 73 and well rememember the passage of the European Communities Bill in Novemeber 72  that sold us lock stock and barrel to the EU. I wish I had gone into the house that night to see the sordid scene with political pygmies such as Jefrey Archer selling us down the river  Foot said he was ashamed to be a member of a parliament that had given so many of our hard won freedoms away. These two put the argument better than I ever could so please take the time to listen to them. People sometimes ask me what went on in government in 72. I usually reply that all that has happened since was largely forseen in Civil service briefing papers of the time but the politicians and the FO were gung ho for the EU for why?

Well the reason came out in the background snippets in the discussion with talk of prices and incomes board, strikes and corporate malpractice, Lonrho etc. That was where the real impetus came to join. There was a feeling we were not up to running our own country, a national loss of confidence or call it what you will. So the political class abdicated as cravenly as Edward VIII and handed us over the the 4th Reich. Its the old military adage, there are no bad men only bad officers and certainly in Heath, Jenkins and Shirl we certainly had that!

It seems the Greeks are still short 4 bn bonds so they have kept their auction offer open for another 2 days. They say there is no problem because if Johny Foreigner does not cough up his bonds the Greek banks will. But of ourse the latter does not get Greece anywhere its just robbing Stellios to pay Stellios!

Saturday, 8 December 2012

Greek bond buy back broadly succeeds

Athens announced the above today. It was just sufficient to keep the IMF on board so I guess a few arms were twisted as it was privately held bonds that were tendered which includes Greek pension funds, a case of robbing Stellios to pay Stellios you might say. The price was set by what price gave the hedge funds a decent profit. They had bought the bonds when they were junk rated and yielding 25% or so. The hedgies exited with a nice profit but the Greek pension funds took a big hit.

There will be a formal announcement on Monday confirm bonds with a total face value of 30 bn € were bought in for 10 bn€ ie a write down of 65%. IMF funds were being witheld until this deal was done.

Athens has received 148.6 billion euros in EU/IMF funds since May 2010. It stands to get almost 90 billion euros more by the end of 2014.

It will all go the same way. Its called chucking good money after bad. The Greeks have paid a terrible price. Their economy has shrunk by 24% in the last 5 years and unemployment is nearing 30%.

Greek banks also tendered their bonds but then they will receive the EU/IMF funds so it was naked self interest on their part.

The can will roll on and on down the road to Euro exit.

Friday, 7 December 2012

Barroso wades in to the Scottish Referendum

It may have escaped the notice of those who live South of the border that there is more than one nationalist party in the UK and that far and away the most successful is the SNP, leader Alec Salmond, which is the government of Scotland. Today's DT headline, the paper of choice in the English shires, reads, "Independent Scotland must apply to join the EU says Brussels".  This would result if the application was accepted in Scotland having to join the Euro. So UK EU rights would not be grandfathered down to Scotland or Wales and nor would Mrs Thatcher's famous rebate according to Barroso. Wow!

The Scot Nat finance spokesman John Swinney states as Scotland would be applying from within the EU its all OK.

I think this may prove to be a shot in the foot by the EU and a gift for the SNP. Alec S  likes the EU. He is by a mile the ablest politician operating in the UK. Upsetting Alec is not a samrt move by Barroso. It could be seen as a crude attempt to interfere in the internal affairs of a wannabe sovereign nation. Despite Alec Salmond's views the EU is no more popular in Scotland than it is in the rest of the UK.

If Alec wants to play hardball he will point to how much of current EU fishing goes on in what could become Scottish territorial waters. The same argument applies to Scottish oil which provides a secure back up if there was more trouble in the Middle East. Then of course he is not without allies in Spain in Catalonia and the Basque country. What happened when Czechoslovakia split into the Czech republic and Slovakia.

I don't know how this will play out. Personally I would like to see Scotland in with its historic trading partner Norway ie out of the EU entirely and into a Hanseatic league trading confederacy which was incidentally the foundation of the City of London's wealth creation in the 14th and 15th centuries. I am confident Scotland has more to gain than lose in this scenario. The big losers would be the Labour party which should be a big plus i.n Southern England.

Alec will do a good job for Scotland whatever happens. I don't want to be ruled by a load of posh boys who don't know the price of milk or left wing Oxford PPE types like Milliband, Balls and Mrs Balls.





Thursday, 6 December 2012

UK is in a financial hole - official!

That was the message from Gideon at the dispatch box yesterday. He is unwilling to take the action needed as he thinks it will terminate the coalition, generate a vote of confidence which the government would lose and usher in Labour. I would view that as the best option. There is a market saying, the first loss is the least loss. The by-elections have shown Labour will win the next election hands down. Why not just accept that and put them back in on the very sticky wicket they created. It would completely destroy the LibDems as a parliamentary party which would do our country no end of good and rid us of that EU loving rabble.

The country needs huge cuts in public spending. Why not start with the £10bn plus overseas aid budget. Ditch this ridiculous LibDem obsession with hugely expensive 'Green' energy. UK industry needs cheap energy now!

To continue the cricket metaphor, in the era of uncovered pitches beloved of GB, the greatest Yorkshireman of all time in his opinion, a Test captain declared whilst his side was well behind on a sticky wicket so the other side would have to bat in these impossible conditions. It was a great idea until the opposition captain said what if I also declare and you have to play your second innings on this pitch. Dave should declare now and put Red Ed in. He ideally not have batted first.

That is the situation Dave is in. I remember Merv King saying of course after he had been re-appointed as Governor that the next election would be a very bad election to win but the Tories after 13 years of Tony and Gordon the Tories were desperate. They grabbed the poisoned challice and added extra LibDem hemlock to the poisonous brank and drank it down in one as they do in the Bullingdon Club.

So Labour win, the LibDems are wiped out UKIP is seen to be irrelevant and the Tories are down to a South of England and shires rump of less than 200 MPs. Labour would still struggle inScotland but they would have a majority of English MPs for the first time ever. We would be in for 5 years of unalloyed gloom a bit like under Atlee possibly with rationing, exchange controls all approved by the EU of course.

And what of the UK in the EU. For sure Red Ed will do all he can to avoid a referendum but as economic conditions worsen pressure will build and there will be an inevitable explosion. That will be UKIP's chance but of course they will not have put in place the structures to exploit this shambles. They will as always have been concentrating on supping in the bars and bordellos of Brussels.

It will be as Lenin said of the 1917 Russian revolution, power was lying in the gutter and he just picked it up. EUKIP are already in the gutter but not of our country but the gutters of  Brussels EUKIP will be incapable of standing on their own their feet and returning to the UK as Lenin did to Russia. EUKIP are totally dependent on EU handouts. They are incapable of surving without the EU.

It would be a very fluid chaotic situation conducive to rapid radical change and I would not be surprised to see the EU put an army of occupation into our country invited of course by our Europhile quislings in the House of Lords as Hitler was invited into The Sudentland. What would the British Army, assuming it still exists, do in that situation? What will our monarch do? Be prepared? I doubt it.

Those who have prepared and are organised in the UK will triumph in this scenario as Hitler did in Germany in the early 1930s. Under Farage's frequent purges UKIP's structure in the UK is fallling apart so whoever copmes out on top it won't be EUKIP.

Wednesday, 5 December 2012

Farage, Hamilton and the Thick of It

Last night I watched an episode from the Thick of It from a DVD I bought in a charity shop. It was vastly entertaining where that Alastair Campbell like Scotsman Malcolm Tucker demolishes the unfortunate omni shambles secretary of state Nicola Murray with dire warnings about what the press has in store for her if she does not toe the Tucker line. They have bucket loads of sh*t that they are waiting to empty all over you he tells the unfortunate Ms Murray and only he, Malcolm Tucker, stands between her and a very smelly end.

Its a pity some one has not been saying the same thing to UKIP fuerher Farage. The press are smarting over the Leveson outcome and will be looking for a soft political target to attack and earn a few brownie points from Dave, Ed etc. They have reams of material on Farage but I think they will start on Neil Hamilton when he is approved as UKIP's lead MEP candidate in the South West.

Like many I joined UKIP precisely because it did not have politicians like Hamilton as prominent members. It beggars belief that Farage thinks he can go in with Hamilton prominent on a UKIP MEP slate and not get bucket loads of excrement tipped over Hamilton from the press. UKIP's press officer Gawain Towler won't just have Green Knights to worry about as the great and the not so good pile in to current UKIP NEC member Hamilton.

The poor UKIP members thought they were doing the right thing because of Hamiton's high media and pantomime profile. What Leveson showed was that all these C list celebs who jumped on the band wagon hoping to cash in on the media's awful treatment of  the Milly Dowler case made idiots  of themselves. They sought and solicited media attention to compensate for their abundant lack of talent. But he who lives by the media dies by the media something UKIP members should remember.

O tempore, O mores as Cicero said and he knew a lot about political lack of morals.

Tuesday, 4 December 2012

Further by-election analysis; Eurozone Banks

I do not agree with many commentators who argue that because of a low turnout, 30% say, that means you can 'reduce' parties share of the vote by 70%. There is no reason to assume those who did not vote are voting against the parties standing. The correct assumption is that these uncast votes will divide the same way as votes that were cast. That's why exit polls give a very good estimate of electoral outcomes with only a small percentage of the voters polled.

There is also a further argument doing the rounds that BNP and UKIP votes are interchangeable that I don't buy because the numbers do not add up. On my spreadsheet it looks like 30% of UKIP votes at most came from previous BNP voters. Despite Farage's claims to the contrary UKIP & BNP fish in the same voter pool but UKIP has successfully widened its pool but not by nearly enough to win any fptp election. To do that UKIP has to get working class Labour votes that some one like Bob Crow of the RMT could deliver. Will Farage step aside to let this happen for the good of our country? Not a hope.

Spain formally requested 40 billion euros to bail out its banks at a late night meeting of euro zone finance ministers. They will need a lot more than that. Meanwhile the word on the Greek buy back is the hedge funds who control  a lot of Greek debt want a higher price than the Greeks are offering so no deal yet.

Christian Noyer, governor of the Banque de France let the cat out of the bag with his demand that the vast majority of Euro business done in London must be brought into the Eurozone ie Paris in Franglais. I have pointed out for many years this was the EU agenda. BoJo would do better to concentrate on repelling the Frogs after the City of London business than trying to prop up Cast Iron's unworkable EU strategy.

French attitudes to us have not changed these last 600 years and hardened after Henry VIII set up his own church,

L'Angleterre, ah, la perfide Angleterre, que le rempart de ses mers rendait inaccessible aux Romains, la foi du Sauveur y est abordée.  

I have decided to do some reading into the origin and working of the Hanseatic League which generated much of this countries' wealth pre Elizabeth Tudor. Where Cannon Street station now stands in the City used to be one of their warehouses. It was a Baltic North German  operation much more aligned to Anglo Saxon thinking, standards and work ethic

Monday, 3 December 2012

Greek buy back ground hog day

Greece is running a distressed debt buy back Dutch auction for its paper. Its a bit like a bankrupt paying out 30 to 40 pence in the pound. The deal is for a whole series of Greek bonds with a price cents in the euro price of 30.2 to 32.2 for the longest dated maturities and 38.1 to 40.1 on the shorter dates. Bond holders will tender part or all of their bond holdings at a price they set in these ranges. These will then be ranked for each bond and the Greeks will take the bids submitted at the lowest price. They are hoping to buy back their bonds for roughly 35% of what they received for them with a loss to the bond holders of around 65%. Greece will put up to 10bn € up for this auction and this will save them roughly €30 bn including coupon payment savings or the same loss if your a bond holder.

Its the classic Keynesian trick that if you owe a smal amount you are in the creditor's power but if you owe a large amount the creditore is in your power. Greece is in the latter situation and they are the monopoly buyer of their bonds as no one else will touch them. Most of these bonds are held by other Eurozone banks and a few pension funds. No private investor in their right mind would have bought this paper.

The Greek debt mountain then gets reduced by up to €40 bn enabling Greece to get more loans from the IMF and thus avoid bankruptcy for now at least. In politician speak its kicking the can down the road but it comes at a price. Who will buy Greek debt in the next 10 years? Well only those pressurised by their political masters committed to the grand Euro project to preserve their reputation. Will that be enough? Only if the electors back these politicians and that's what concerns Merkel and the rest.

It is one of life's great truths that all politicians careabout is getting re-elected back into power. Whatever happens the Eurozone finance ministers will proclaim this Greek Dutch auction a great success. Their electorates may think differently if they engage their brains.

Saturday, 1 December 2012

Analysis of 6 recent by-elections. Where did the votes come from

There have been 6 recent Westminster by-elections: Cardiff South, Manchester Central, Rotherham, Middelesborough,Croydon won by Labour and Corby won by the Tories in 2010. That's a decent sample size. Labour won all 6 gaining Corby from the Tories. What conclusions can we draw from the vote swings since 2009. Lets start with the swings over all 6 seats. I give the results below, average, maximum and minimum.



               

Labour UKIP Tory LibDems
Average 9.90% 8.12% -10.40% -12.07%
Maximum 16.38% 15.87% -7.25% -9.48%
Minimum 1.62% 2.98% -15.63% -17.16%



The average row makes it clear the swing to Labour and UKIP is almost exactly balanced by Tory & Lib Dem losses. So UKIP like Labour won vote from this very unpopular coalition government. Any government that came into office after Gordon would have been similarly shafted. As Mr Byrne, Brown's Treasury Chief Secretary left on his desk for Laws, the note there is no money left. But Cam and Clegg were desperate to get into power they took the poisoned challice and destroyed their parties for the next three elections. That is a big opportunity for UKIP but are they up to it? Well not the current Farage cabal for sure but some clean skins might just triumph in 16 years time.

UKIP's best result came in Rotherham thanks to the social services in that town. Middlesborough was also very good. Worst was Croydon.

Before we run away with ourselves look at the share of the vote figures I give below:

Labour UKIP Tory LibDems
Average 56.05% 10.70% 13.25% 6.79%
Maximum 69.12% 21.79% 26.57% 10.82%
Minimum 46.25% 4.50% 4.53% 2.11%



Labour have 56% of the vote. OK these were up North and Welsh results with none from Southern England and the shires. Allowing for this it looks like a 40% vote share for Red Ed which would put him into Downing Street with a circa 100 seat majority. Look at UKIP's 10.7% compared to the Tory 13.25% and LibDems 6.79%. They could take out the LibDems next time on share of the vote and possibly the Tories the time after next. But how many seats would they get faced with a rock solid Labour vote of 40%+? Not a lot I opine.

UKIP could win a handful if they had a well organised party structure in target constituencies like the SNP had. The trouble is Farage and his cabal have kicked everyone out of UKIP who have the political and organisational skills to do this so its highly unlikely. Farage ain't no Alex Salmond and the people round him are not in the same league as Alec's boys.

Tony and Gord were great political operators. Not only did Tony win 3 elections but Gord made sure they will win the next 3 as well. After this UK economic meltdown nobody will vote fo LibDemCon for a generation.

I expect to see Tony as EU president within 5 years and he will be a real problem for UKIP.