Thursday 28 February 2013

EU starts its campaign against the City

This is what the EU proposal to limit bank bonuses to one times salary is all about. BoJo recognises this but our useless MEPs, all of whom have gone native, support their EU paymasters. They warble the EU song about level playing fields. Its rubbish. Banking and finance are international businesses that can re-locate anywhere, Zurich, Dubai, Singapore or what the EU want, Paris or Frankfurt.

On TV we had one idiot Tory MEP stating she had worked for two US investment banks so knew what she was talking about. She did not say what job she had, possibly just a PA. In every successful hedge fund or investment bank there is an inner core of a handful of people who make it work. Its the same in IT and other high tech businesses. These handful of rainmakers create thousands for less talented people even PAs.

This will sharpen up the  in/out EU debate no end as the London chattering classes, solicitors and others, realise how much of their business and lifestyle will disappear when these rainmakers decamp to Zurich etc. Even the North London Milliband communist intelegencia will be hit along with government officials ie the people who run our country. When I worked in the Civil Service in the early 1970s I was appalled how London centric it was and how few senior decision makers had ever been North of Watford.

When the IRA was blowing up pubs and buses in Birmingham and Leeds the London civil servants and MPs  regarded it as if it had happned in Vietnam. When the IRA blew up a London restaurant, Airey Neave in the House of Commons car park and almost killed Thatcher and half her cabinet in Brighton the establishment's  attitude changed over night. The London EU philes will soon be facing their Brighton bomb moment and that will be the real game changer on the EU.

Wednesday 27 February 2013

A prediction of the Eastleigh result

There is a line in the long running play the  "The Mousetrap", "They say Virginia's doing awfully well at Wimbledon this year" that always got a big laugh at the end of June. Its now the same with UKIP. Its now become the protest vote party and you will hear its doing awfully well from time to time as suitable by-elections engage the media's attentions. People are cheesed of with the lies and broken promises of LibLabCon and are looking for a way to express their anger and will hit on UKIP as the only other recognisable name on the ballot paper now that Screaming Lord Sutch has demised.

It is not support for UKIP's core leave the EU policy. To achieve that requires much more effort and a much longer campaign.

Watching the various TV hustings you can see that local issues like building on golf courses and immigration dominate the discussion. UKIP's core leave the EU policy has barely been mentioned so a large vote for UKIP is almost entirely a protest vote pure and simple. Voters don't like Dave or his pal Nick who is so much a stranger to the truth that he has had to invent a whole new language called LibDemspeak to pretend he is not telling porkies. Watch his nose grow! Voters don't like Red Ed or his chum Ed Balls and ts not just their policies they don't like they simply do not trust them or any policians.

Now I think Ms James will get a good result tomorrow. She has come in from 25/1 at the start of he campaign to 6/1 tonight. Ms Hutchings has gone out from Evens to 4/1 against tonight. The LibDems statred at Evens and are now 1/3, overwhelming favourites to win.

This could be a dire result for Dave with the distinct possibility the Tories will be beaten into third place by UKIP. His policy of offering a qualified in/out referendum has certainly dished that vote but it does not touch the huge protest vote UKIP are now receiving at Eastleigh.Thus UKIP will be drawing votes from all wings of three main parties disillusioned with politics and politicians.

That the Tories cannot win such a seat given the tidal wave of LibDem sleaze allegations is a direct consequence of unhappy Tory activists who are simply not turning out to stuff envelopes and organise their postal vote. TheTories have a huge motivation and organisation problem to crack.

As for UKIP learning that Duffy and Reeve are in charge of candidate assessment and training says it all. Assessment means sucking up and training will be the blind leading the blind.

Putting it all together I expect the LibDems to get around 32% of the vote, the Tories 29% UKIP 27% with the remaining 12% split between Labour and the smaller parties but of course I would love Ms James to come through and win.


Tuesday 26 February 2013

Farage a poor leader . Andreasen & Bannerman defectives

Farage often boasts about 'professionalising' UKIP. Besides not knowing a noun from an adjective Farage has not delivered on this or indeed on any other promise he has made to UKIP members. Many Farage sycophants like to portray him as a great General. Let us pursue that propaganda a little.

The first modern army in terms of its structure was set up by the Roman Marius. He vastly increased the size of the Roman Army, removed the property qualification to enlist, reorganised the structure into legions and cohorts, paid the squaddies and gave them conquered land at the end of their service and crucially trained his army relentlessly. It was a greatly increased professional army loyal to its General. His nephew Julius Caesar capitalised on this in his Gallic wars but it was his uncle Marius, 7 times elected consul who made the Roman Empire possible.

UKIP badly needs a training programme for its candidates. It was what made the Roman Army in 100 BC and what made Cromwell's New Model Army in 1640. Watching the Eastleigh candidates it is clear the Tory Maria Hutchings has been put through an intensive training course and Ms James has not. Hence she got caught out on her 4 million Bulgarian immigrants claim on C4 News last night by Murphy and his supplementary, what is the population of Bulgaria? Ms James had not a clue how to handle her faux pas. It was also depressing to listen to her trotting out the Farage fag paper metaphor. It rang false. Farage and fag papers are OK but not a nice lady like Ms James.

Ms James has been let down by UKIP. She is easily the best candidate but won't winn because of lack of back up from her party.

UKIP did have the people who could do this training but Farage of course has got rid of them. His army is shrinking not growing. Worse, his choice of subordinates is dreadful. He confuses sycophancy to him with loyalty. The sleazier the sycophant the more likely he will be preferred by Farage. Basic UKIP administration is dreadful. Who was responsible for the London assembly ballot paper fiasco? He is still there.

Andreasen and Bannerman would not have been put on a UKIP MEP slate without Farage actively promoting them. A General needs loyal subordinates. Both have now gone off to join the Tories and both have been in Eastleigh canvassing for Ms Hutchings! Both aspire to Tory MEP slots. I do not think the Tories are that stupid.

Over half the LibDem MPs are reported in Eastleigh today canvassing for their candidate. How many UKIP MEPs are there? The LibDems are well organised. Will the Rennard revelations hurt them? Yes, a bit but because they got their postal votes organised in week one of the campaign most of these votes would have been returmned before the Rennard story broke! Time to explain to UKIP's Crowther what a postal vote is and how to organise it.

The LibDems are still 2/5 on to win with the Tories at 11/4. UKIP are solid at 7/1 so not to far from the Tories. For those of us who want an EU referendum sooner rather than later  this indicates a good result with UKIP a close third to the Tories and with a Tory plus UKIP total ahead of the LibDems. A bad night for Dave, good!






Monday 25 February 2013

Is Diane James a winner?

She has the best opportunity ever to win an MP seat for UKIP but she has to get her boot on the LibDems lying neck to do so. The LibDems are the nasty lying hypocritical party of British politics. They claim the high moral ground but belong in the gutter. They are completely ruthless in their treatment of women in their desperation to hang on in Eastleigh. Ms James has to do what Mrs Thatcher did in 1974 Tory leadership election and win for the women of our country.

She must label the LibDems the nasty, yellow, cowardly party. Clegg's weasel words last night showed just what the LibDems are:

As these concerns were received indirectly and anonymously, as those involved understandably wanted to maintain privacy, there was a limit to how we could take this matter forward following Chris Rennard’s resignation."

He could have reported the matter to the police after Rennard's resignation.

I watched Simon Hughes giving a one man three wise monkeys performance this morning on BBC breakfast TV like a one man band. During his 4 years as LibDem President or whatever he never heard or saw any of these allegations and said nothing as well. And the band played believe it if you like!

I hope the Tories go for this as well. I suggest Maria Hutchings and Diane use the brilliant cartoon from Guido's blog I reproduce below on all their election literature up to polling day.




Many newspapers have commented on the similarity of the LibDems handling of the Rennard allegations and the BBC handling of the Saville affair. The reason is quite simple. The BBC and the LibDems are joined at the hip and share the same sordid groupthink. So no surprise they behave the same way.

Labour is imploding at Eastleigh. The bookies odds on a Diane win are now 7/1 and shortening with Maria at 9/4 and also shortening. The Lib Dems are still 2/1 on. Its up to Diane and Maria to change that in the next three days and pick up shed loads of LibDem votes. I would normally say kick them in the gonads but of course LibDems like angels in pictures have no gonads.

Saturday 23 February 2013

Eastleigh latest, Lib Dem sleaze & Andreasen

With under a week to go till the by-election tomorrow’s Times has a Populus poll of Eastleigh (£). Voting intention now stands at CON 28%, LAB 11%, LDEM 33%, UKIP 21%. The bookies have LibDems 4/1 on, Tories 4/1 against and UKIP 12/1 against. Delving nehind the figures it gets better for UKIP.

Without the reallocation of don’t knows the topline figures would have been CON 26%, LAB 12%, LD 31%, UKIP 25%. The reallocation of don’t knows has worked very well for ICM and Populus at general elections, improving their accuracy but will it  work at by-elections?. Without this re-allocation  the position between UKIP and the Conservatives is very tight.

E veryone assumes that the UKIP support comes mainly from the Conservatives. Not quite!. 17% of 2010 Tory voters are saying they would vote UKIP, but so are 11% of 2010 Lib Dem voters and 10% of 2010 Lab voters.


As I opined earlier this week UKIP' Ms James will get over 20% but can they win? In a fptp election there are no prizes for coming second. They can win if the Tory vote crumbles plus they pick up some from Labour. The easier target  may be  the LibDems and to win Ms James must go for the jugular and portray them as a party that has no respect for women and uses them when it suits them .  Ms Hutchings for the Tories should be doing the same. Huhne and Rennard are unpleasant men and Ms James should have no compunction in so labelling them as such. Women have over 50% of the votes in every election so go for the women's vote Ms James and go for LibDEm male sleaze. How many women MPs do the LibDems have and how many men? The Populus poll shows the votes are there for Ms James to pick up.

The LibDem candidate even  his own supporters describe as boring. He talks of defending green land and votes for concreting over a golf course. What for? To house EU immigrants perhaps. Another soft target again for Ms James!

Good luck Ms James but one of Farge's former women has just crawled out to queer your pitch and help the Tories. I opined previously that Andreasen could finish Farage. She has gone off to join the Tories. When on the UKIP NEC I warned Farage about this woman. A proper party would have  listened to me and many others but UKIP is a Farage worshipping cult so it lives and dies with its leader. Post Andreasen I think the latter now looks more likely.  

I still expect the LibDems vastly superior organisation will get their vote out and retain the seat for Nick. If UKIP come second it will put more pressure on Cameron from his eurosceptic wing. He may even bring forward his referendum date or cut a deal with UKIP.

Thursday 21 February 2013

Eastleigh UKIP odds shorten; Bank of England in disarray

The LibDems odds are now 4/1 on! Did you get your bet on yesterday Mr Wood as I advised? This is despite the BoJo show hitting town yesterday. BoJo was great value. Only the Dof E on Fillipino nurses got a better press yesterday. BoJo is that rare thing a very clever man who acts the buffoon but even he, like the mother superior in the Sound of Music, cannot solve a problem like Maria. O'Farrell is making bad jokes and destroying the Labour campaign and not even the former LibDem mayor leaving the LibDems because of their 30 lies and broken promises has not dented their campaign.

UKIP are pushing at an open door. BoJo nailed Clegg on the secret Balkan immigration figures now UKIP's core policy since the demise of the BNP. Ms James is having to do little other than smile sweetly and warn on the demands more EU immmigrants will put on green belt land. UKIP's odds have come into 12/1 at Ladbrokes. Steadily the Tories are giving up on Ms Hutchings and many will vote UKIP. Pulling her out of Radio5 live hustings shows they have given up and are trying to limit the damage she is doing. Ditto for Labour and o'Farrell. So  UKIP has a squeeze on the Tories and I now expect Ms James to get over 20% of the vote.

Ms James has done well but another gaffe from legover Clegg could push her vote up to nearer 30%  if Farage stays away. He is a vote loser in Eastleigh as is Nuttall. They don't appreciate a Liverpool accent down South associated as it is with militant Trade Unionists. They also do not appreciate Arthur Daley types clad in camel hat coats with velvet collars reeking of fag smoke. It also reeks of spiv. They like nice pleasant middle class ladies like Ms James. Farage keep out and take Nuttall with you!

The BoE under Sir Merv has run out of ideas. Carney cannot arrive soon enough. Voting for more QE shows just how out of touch he is. There is no evidence whatsoever that printing money boosts economic growth. Ask Robert Mugabe and the people of Zimbabwe.

When at the BoE I despaired of how the MPC could only see the one side to their often ill-judged actions. Printing money drives up the price of gilts which reduces their yield. This trickles through to Joe Public's building society accounts which Charlie Bean thinks they should be spending. Easily said if like Mr Bean you have a huge, RPI linked, pension. But if you are a prudent pensioner on a state pension you are very reliant on that little bit of extra income you get from your savings. Take my advice spend it while you can on a nice cruise and then claim your increased social security benefits and add to Gideon's woes. Don't feel guilty about doing this, He does not feel guilty about screwing you.

It also hits corporates like insurance companies. RSA one of the biggest cut its dividend this week because of falling returns on its asset portfolio much of which is gilts.

In terms of monetary policy our country is in as big, if not bigger, mess than the Eurozone. King has proved to be a disastrous governor when the going got tough. He is out of touch because he only listens to other economists.

Tuesday 19 February 2013

Eastleigh is now a big chance for UKIP if Farage stays away

UKIP is reported this morning at 14% in the latest ComRes national poll. That share of the vote in Eastlleigh would be curtains for Dave and his pro-EU line. The LibDems would win big. It can be done and more!

There is no positive reason for UKIP to be doing so well. Its a rejection of our sordid political elite. A plague on all your houses say the voters nationally. Its a protest vote pure and simple. They are now getting the anti-establishment vote which used to go to the LibDems who are now of course part of the political establishment.

Tennis matches even at Andy Murray's level are won by the player who makes the fewest mistakes not the player who hits the most winners. In politics the surest way of avoiding mistakes is to say nothing. Sure you talk plenty but with minimal content. That is what makes a good politician. I think UKIP's Diane James has now learned that lesson. Calling for a temporary halt to immigration, rightly linking immigration to housing  controls anf green field develeopment, opposing the closure of the Ford factory is all great. It plays well with the electorate and its bomb proof for a protest vote party. Click on link to see and hear Ms James doing it really well. Dare I say it she is far less strident and thus far more effective than Mr Farage.

Maria Hutchings the Tory candidate is meanwhile opening her gob and shooting herself in both feet over private schools n particular. She is losing support hand over fist. The bookies' odds show this. She started level with the LibDems and the latest odds are roughly LibDems 2/1 on and Tories 2/1 against or in approximate  percentages to win LibDems 66%, Tories 33%. Mrs Hutchings is a decent woman but a poor candidate. The Lib Dems are picking up her stop Labour vote. Time for Ms James to squeeze her from the other side.

Labour's candidate, O'Farrell is figuratively and in real life a joke. His pro IRA comments on the IRA Brighton bomb and pro Argentine comments on the Falklands war  where many British soldiers died were born out Labour's visceral hatred of Mrs Thatcher are sinking his campaign before it starts. Why Labour chose a candidate with so much baggage in such a high profile election is beyond me. He is unelectable and Ms James should beat him easily and he can crawl back to HIGNFY where he belongs. There is a big betting market on Betfair for UKIP to beat Labour. You can still get good odds on Ms James. I hope you are reading this Mr Wood. I know you like a nice filly.

Its LibDem's election to lose. Their candidate Mike Thornton is trying to say as little as possible. His problem is that his party is in government both nationally and totally control the local council. Therein lies his problem. LibDems try to be all things to all men to maximise their vote. In particular they want to keep the countryside green and oppose housing on greenfield development. Unfortunately just before the late and unlamented Huhne fell on his shandicaps.word Councillor Thornton voted through a 4000 house greenfield development in Eastleigh. Being in power is nice but it does require you to make decisions which inevitably become electoral  albatrosses. The opposite happened over student fees in 2010. The LibDems never for one moment thought they would have to implement their signed promises!

Thornton's big asset is the Lib Dem machine something I have seen in Yeovil keep Laws in power. I quote from their web site:


"As the party’s weekly briefing itself noted, Mike Thornton’s campaign has broken the party’s by-election records, with “more volunteers, more money raised and more campaign literature delivered in the opening days of the Eastleigh by-election campaign than any other”.
Here a few of the stats:
  • Well over 1,000 Lib Dem volunteers have visited the by-election HQ since it was officially opened on Saturday morning.
  • On Thursday alone, 2,200 phone calls were made to prospective voters and activists knocked on 1,700 doors.
  • More than 650 individual donations have been received through the party’s website and through email appeals in the last six days.
  • 21 of the party’s 57 MPs have already visited: Nick Clegg, Danny Alexander, Ed Davey, Vince Cable, Sir Malcolm Bruce, Sir Nick Harvey, Tim Farron, Jo Swinson, David Laws, Duncan Hames, Andrew Stunell, Simon Wright, Sir Robert Smith, Stephen Gilbert, Tom Brake, Roger Williams, Don Foster, John Leech, Tessa Munt, Mark Williams, John Pugh and Adrian Sanders."

That shows how formidable their activists are and how much effort they are putting into their campaign. They are offering their activists travel plus subsistence to come to Eastleigh and knock on doors and it will win the seat for them.

This is what Farage's EUKIP cannot do and why it will inevitably let down the millions of voters who want to leave the EU. Its all very well for little Arnott to boast of UKIP's 22,000 members but as any military man will tell you unless you can mobilise your troops and get them to the battlefield you cannot win. The LibDems have done that ,UKIP has not. That has always been UKIP's failing. Troops in barracks don't win battles or elections.

I remember being berated on the NEC by Farage over the failure of the SW members to turn out and go to Henley in the by-election caused by BoJo becoming mayor of London. I merely pointed out to NF that Helnley was in his South East region and asked how many UKIPers from there had gone to Henley. Answer there was none.

Eastleigh illustrates why Farage's EUKIP shambles, chief of staff or chief incompetent Steve Crowther,  can never win a Westminster seat. It needs organisation, management and leadership which EUKIP could have had but the talent that could have done this has been hounded out of UKIP to preserve Farage's power base and his sycophant wannabee MEPs place on UKIP slates so they can go to Brussels!

How many UKIP MEPs have been in Eastleigh leafleting the voters? Answers with names below please.

This could have been UKIP's breakthrough into Westminster. It was winnable. The national mood is very favourable for UKIP. The two leading candidates represented a deeply unpopular government. One has shown herself to be a liability and the other is less than inspiring with big local difficulties. The principal opposition party, Labour candidate is unelectable. UKIP had an excellent candidate, presentable and saying the right things. The odds are however stacked against her by Farage's wasted years posturing and drinking in Brussels rather than building up the grassroots base in the UK. He has destroyed many  UKIP branches and made many enemies by so doing.

It still could be for Ms James but it will take a political miracle. I hope Farage butts out and lets the capable Ms James get on with it and take centre stage with the media. Every Farage rant will knock hundreds off her vote so let us pray he stays in Brussels for the next two weeks.

NB Every battle is won or lost before the first shot is fired. Its logistics.

Saturday 16 February 2013

Marta the scorned attacks Farage again!

Hell hath no fury like a woman scorned Nigel. Click on link to seeMarta's  full interview. I quote,


Do you think that Nigel Farage is the right person to lead UKIP into the 2014 European Parliamentary and 2015 UK general elections?
"Well the 2014 European elections will be very much framed around the possible referendum in the UK and in that sense it is possible that he may be successful. I’m not saying that he’s the right person to lead it, but even if he’s not the right person I think that he will be successful. Let us say that he will probably return the same number of MEPs that we have today if the political conditions stay the same, but a lot can happen in one year.
With regard to 2015 then no, I don’t think he’s the right person because he just doesn’t want to get to Westminster (the UK Parliament). We are led by the wrong person. Nigel has no interest in getting to Westminster. If he was interested in Westminster then he would have stood in the Eastleigh by election. If he was interested then he would have focused on areas where we have a chance to get to Westminster. What he’s doing is using our limited financial and human resources across the country in by elections where we have little chance of winning a seat. Yes it’s great to get more votes, but that doesn’t get us to Westminster."
Major Warry has been saying this years but the Farage controlled wannabees have to carry on like the three wise monkeys although this comparison insults the intelligence of our simian cousins. 
and,
You are UKIP’s only female MEP. Could UKIP do more to attract women to the party?
"Well UKIP could do more to attract women if they respected the women that they have. It’s not a question of putting female candidates on the list: you probably have seen that now for the Eastleigh by election they have recruited a female candidate. It’s a question that firstly, the candidates should be put in lists where there is a possibility for UKIP to win the seat, and this is not going to be the case in Eastleigh – nor was it the case in the Corby by election.
The most important thing is that once a female is elected, and she represents the people (and the party before the people) they should respect this female in as much as they are doing a good job. Putting myself as an example, I think that I have done a good job for the party and for the people that I represent, but I haven’t had the respect that I would have expected."
This was put up on the LSE web site where UKIP's founder Alan Sked still teaches. He identified the many failings in the Farage approach many years ago and left the party. In particular the takeover of UKIP by Neanderthal ex-Tories but again the comparison insults Neanderthals who we now know were quite intelligent.
Marta is getting up a fair head of steam. Keep your eye on your ball Nigel or she may nick that as well.

Thursday 14 February 2013

Eastleigh needs EU facts not factoids

A factoid is a false statement repeated so often, so loudly and by the great and the good that its underlying lie is forgotten. The EU debate has been bedevilled with these factoids since 1970. The main proponents of this scaremongering propanganda tool have been Shirley, dragged through a bush backwards Williams, Fat Boy Clarke, Tarzan Heseltine, John Major and almost every other member of our political elite. I discussed the reasons for this recently and it comes down to these people seeking to maintain themselves in power in perpetuity via the EU.

I watched a US vox pop on gun training for teachers in Colorado recently so they can defend their pupils if need be. I was struck by the answer the citizens gave to the smart media type who said, "What if your Congressman and Senators don't   agree?" The cowboy answered then we just replace them next election and send someone else to Washington who will uphold our views. Now that is decent representative democracy made possible by the bi-annual cycle of elections, What we have is a party controlled democracy.

Our MPs represent their party political elite not their constituents whom they only have to consult every 5 years! I speak from personal experience. In Yeovil we have a LibDem MP called David Laws who was named by the DT for fiddling his expenses to benefit his boyfriend. The fundamental veracity of the allegations was never challenged yet Laws did not face a criminal trial. He was not recalled to face the electors at a fresh election and having resigned from Dave and Nick's government is now back as a government minister!

What is wrong with our democracy? David Laws sums it up! My fundamental requirement of any one standing for political office is do I believe the candidate knows Right from Wrong.

Tim Congdon has been beavering away undermining these EU phile factoids with facts or to put it simply the truth. He has shown the 3 million jobs in the UK depend on our being members of the EU factoid is just not true. The opposite is the case. The EU has been destroying jobs both in the UK and in its beloved Eurozone. Tim's killer fact sourced from OECD statistics is the proprtion of the 15-64 age group in employment, 64% in the EU, 70% in the UK, 72% in Australia and 79% in Switzerland. The figures are worse for young people so if you want your children to have a job either vote to leave the EU or advise them to emigrate to Oz.

On immigration and jobs, in the 4 years ending 2011 the number of jobs occupied by UK born workers fell by 800000 and those occupied by the accession countries, Poland etc increased by 200000! Again if you want your children to have a job vote to reverse this immigration.

Ms James, UKIP's candidate, needs to do her homework. She has already had to apologise for her comments on Romanian pickpockets. In politics you can get away with a very few facts to support you argument or if not factoids parroted by the great and the good but you can't get away with unsupported allegations. Not even the Fuerher can do that.

Labour's O'Ferrall is a funnier version of Farage. The bloke in the pub who knopws nothing about the constituency but has a few good jokes and likes going to pubs. Another Bob Servant perhaps?

Tories' Maria Hutchings claims to be a straight answer person like Farage. Unfortunately she does not want to answer questions on subjects like abortion and often has to be shut up and re-interpreted by Shaps and Pickles.

Lib Dem's Mike Thornton sat on the council that approved a plan for a whopping 4000 new houses on a greenfield site but tries to make out he is the guardian of the countryside. He also, thanks to Nick, has a big student problem.

Its how not to do politics all over again.

Wednesday 13 February 2013

Hamilton goes to Eastleigh.Where Is Marta?

Today's DT publishes a very fetching picture of Neil arriving at Eastleigh station with a UKIP rosette in his cap. All wanabee MEPs should follow his fine example of how to suck up to Nigel. Now who used to wear his colours on his hat? No, not Richard III he used his sleeve. That's right screaming Lord Such of the Monster Raving Loony party memorably defeated by the Fuerher at Eastleigh 20 years ago. Have UKIP found their very own Screaming Lord Such?

Labour have chosen media luvvie John O'Farrel as their candidate. The Lib Dems continue to hammer away at the important issues for ordinary people like what days do they want their bins collected. UKIP's Diane has been laying into the Romanian immigrant pickpocket problem and the wonderful Maria, Tory grassroots candidate, has been silenced by Tory Central Office. I sympathise with her. Nigel thinks he has crushed the Marta allegation that he does not like intelligent women by the selection of Diane but has he, and what does Godders think? We have a right to know.

The bookies odds tell it all. I took the odds from 7 bookies and corrected for profit margin. Betfair has the smallest profit margin at 7% compared to roughly 12% for the other firms. This gave the average probability of  a win as:

LibDems 53%
Tories 37%
Labour 7%
UKIP 3%

Note this is not the percentage you get from an opinion poll but it looks like the dustmen will win hands down and rubbish left on UKIP's drive .

Monday 11 February 2013

Will Marta be traded in for a younger British model?

That is my interpretation of the announcement from UKIP that their Eastleigh by-election candidate will be Diane Martine James currently the one Independent councillor on the otherwise Tory dominated Waverley Borough Concil. She seems to have been a member of UKIP for around 3 years. For those members of UKIP and Eastleigh voters who may wish to contact her to ascertain her views on topics of electoral interest I give her contact details as on the Waverley borough web site


Contact Details

Abingerwood
Holmbury Road
Ewhurst
Surrey
GU6 7SJ
Tel: 01483 274799
She is a very presentable lady as her picture shows:
I have great admiration for anyone like Ms James who succeeds in being elected as an Independent in a fptp election and she looks a good candidate who will know how to campaign. She is not a local and will be at a disadvantage in that respect to the Tory and the LibDem

I would like to know more about her business, health care background as I am sure will her opponents in Eastleigh. Does she have children etc?

I am concerned about how she was selected. UKIP members who will be expected to work on this lady's campaign are entitled to know who chose her.  I feel sorry for Ray 'Skeptyk' Finch who stood last time for UKIP but as a true Farage loyalist I am sure he will do the right thing and tweet Nigel knows best.

I expect to see this lady replace Marta as Nigel's number 2 candidate in the 2014 European election, South East region. I hope Nigel is well insured.


Follow me on Twitter @NortonSubHamdon


Sunday 10 February 2013

How many UKIP MEPs will go to Eastleigh?

For those who want to suck up to Nigel and enhance their chances of a ticket on the EU gravy train attendance at Eastleigh is obligatory. All UKIP MEP wannabees will attend so I expect Arnott, Towler,  and many others of that ilk to be there. They must however ensure they attend on the same day as the Fuerher and that they speak to the great man as well. There is no point in going if you are not seen there by NF. Drinks afterwards with NF earn extra brownie points.

MEPs wanting to be relected but who are not sure where they stand with the leader must also attend, Batten, Legge, Clarke,  Agnew and especially Natrass. Only Nuttall and Bloom can feel safe by virtue of many drinks shared in the Brussels Bierhaus with the Fuerher.

Who will be the UKIP candidate will be revealed on Tuesday at 10:00 am in Eastleigh in front of the massed ranls of  around 25 UKIP sycophants and wannabees. Unfortunately it looks like Labour might put up one John O'Ferrall comic and star of HIGNFY. I quote from Guido's blog:


Joke Candidate: John O’Farrell Tipped to Fight Eastleigh

jof-on-hignfy
Ed MIliband says he wants more working class people and people with an armed forces background to stand for parliament, so the Eastleigh by-election is the first opportunity for Labour to choose someone from that kind of background. Yet Labour heavyweights seem to be swinging behind John O’Farrell, who is about as much of a Labour luvvie as you can get. O’Farrell first appeared on the West End stage when he was 10 years old, writes novels and does comedy for the BBC. He wrote a book with the title Things Can Only Get Better: Eighteen Miserable Years in the Life of a Labour Supporter, 1979-1997.
The man who reputedly invented the grey John Major spitting image character also wrote the jokes for Tony Blair and Gordon Brown. He seems serious about standing, he has stood unsuccessfully for Labour before in 2001. The Labour glitterati are backing him and he has already started campaigning in the constituency. Polly Toynbee has publicly endorsed his candidature and says she will work for his election.


If Labour make an effort they could win against this very unpopular government. If I were Milliband I would see it as chance to hole the coalition below the water line and if they lose well so what. I look forward to Edx2, Hettie and the rest of the gang pitching up at Eastleigh. Labour have had a stall in Eastleigh centre for the last two weeks so I don't think they have given up by a long way.

The Tories will of course make a huge effort. Already 5 cabinet ministersVilliers, Miller, Shapps, Grayling and Young there yesterday. They have a great candidate in Maria Hutchings who is far more leave the EU candidate than UKIP.

The LibDems have a huge number of foot soldiers to deploy. NF has had most of his troops shot for alleged disloyalty to the Fuerher so they are hors de combat as they say in Brussels. Dave also has been doing a bit of shooting, in both feet after his homosexual marriage bill so the Tories will also be a bit thin on the ground. They need Boris from Islington!

The latest opinion poll gives the Lib Dems a 3% lead but its a small poll of 500 so there is a huge margin of uncertainty, I would estimate around 5% . I don't find find such polls a reliable guide in fptp elections, I prefer the bookies odds, click on link to see these for yourself. Befair put the LibDems at 13/15 and the Tories at 14/11. The odds since yesterday have shortened on the LibDemas and lenghthened on the Tories.

For any UKIPers who wish to bet on UKIP winning I am personally prepared to offer today 25/1 up to a bet of £10. All my winnings will go to my favourite charity and I don't even know the UKIP candidate! So come on you sycos and put your money where your mouth is. All winners will also receive 25  NF brownie points.redeemable in the Isle of Man.

Saturday 9 February 2013

More Lady problems for Farage & EUKIP in Eastleigh

The lady in question is Maria Hutchings the Tory candidate who got within 3000 votes of Huhne last time. Ms Hutchings is refreshingly off message and speaks her mind. She went on record as saying if there were an immediate referendum she would vote out. I quote from today's Telegraph,


There was the sound of a loose cannon rolling around Eastleigh yesterday, as the most contentious parliamentary by-election in recent history spluttered into life. Bang went Maria Hutchings, Conservative candidate for the seat, and bang again. Yes, she would vote for Britain to leave the European Union in a future referendum, and yes, she would have voted against gay marriage. Mrs Hutchings also happens to be strongly “pro-life”, against building on green-belt land and isn’t a particular fan of “Tory toffs”.
In his effort to find a candidate more honest than the previous Honourable Member for this Hampshire constituency – which, let’s face it, shouldn’t be that hard – David Cameron has landed himself with a ready-made backbench rebel, a woman unafraid to speak her mind.
“If there was a referendum now, I would vote 'out’,” she said, for one moment free of her entourage of Conservative Central Office – now daftly titled “CCHQ” – minders.
“I am not a rich Tory toff,” boomed the former recruitment consultant as she sat in an Eastleigh coffee shop next to Grant Shapps, the bemused and improbable chairman of the Conservative and Unionist Party. “I am a mum, I ran my jobs club down here. One day I didn’t have enough money when I came to the ATM to pay for £1.80 parking here, and the people at the jobs club gave me the money!”
Click on link to read the full piece. Its excellent.

Poor old Atticus Skeptyk Finch if it is he is going to have a hard job with this lady. She is also against same sex marriage, is a mother of 4 and contradicts her minder, Tory chairman Grant Shapps in public. Great! We need more debate like this. Farage did himself a favour by ducking this contest. It was a great start to the campaign while the LibDems were busy trying to air brush Mr Huhne out of their sordid history. 
I have decided to tweet. You can read my thoughts at @NortonSubHamdon for what they are worth.


Friday 8 February 2013

Nigel Farage a Stalinist dictator, says UKIP MEP

Not my headline but the BBC's. Guess who  is the UKIP MEP?  That's right, the lady scorned!

Click on link to read the full piece.

I agree entirely with the lady's views but she kept them well under wraps when she was seeking the favour of Uncle Joe and her place on the 2009 UKIP MEP slate. So I don't have any sympathy for her. Her spell as an MEP will have enriched her by the thick end of £1 million. A worthwhile suck up to Uncle Joe and a sum not lost on UKIP's other wannabee UKIP MEPs like Neil Hamilton. Where else could people like him earn so much money? Who else would employ him at that rate of pay?

Ms Andreasen is not the only lady Farage has to worry about. Nikki Sinclaire, another UKIP MEP but who got on the list through her own talent and effort and fulfilled all the UKIP candidate criteria which Andreasen did not was reported again by the BBC in 2010 as having won a case for sex discrimination against UKIP. There are other lady friends of Mr Farage like Annabelle Fuller or even Mrs Farage who might at some stage wish to tell their story to a sympathetic lady journalist.

In 1558 John Knox wrote a tract, "The First Blast of the Trumpet Against the Monstrous Regiment of Women". Perhaps Mr Farage should read it. JK, founder of the Scottish presbyterian church, was not quite what he seemed either.At the age of 54 and a widower he married the 17 year old MargaretStewart, did the Lord's work and they had three children. Definitely worth a read Mr F.

I wrote the above last night. I see UKIP have announced they will reveal their Eastleigh candidate at 10:00 on Tuesday in Eastleigh. No mention of hustings or consulatations with local party activist so I guees its another Farage nominee. There may be a few other scorned ladies lurking out there..



Thursday 7 February 2013

Farage's EUKIP, a party not fit for purpose at Eastleigh

The LibDems have made a very smart move in Eastleigh by calling the election with the least possible notice on 28th Feb. They hope to take advantage of their supberb organisation in Eastleigh with many local disctrict councillors and party activists to rush the election through before the other parties have got their campaign going. I thought they would go long but I was wrong. Their candidate will officially be chosen on Saturday but of course has already been selected behind closed doors.




Lib Dem by election campaign underway


Liberal Democrats have a proud 20-year record of action in Eastleigh, fighting for people in both local government and in Westminster. The people of Eastleigh should have the opportunity to elect someone to serve the constituency as soon as possible. This is going to be a tough fight, and clearly a fight that’s between Liberal Democrats and Conservatives. I know that we will be up to the task – and I am confident and determined that we will win.
– TIM FARRON, LIBERAL DEMOCRAT PARTY PRESIDENT
The leader of Eastleigh Council, Keith House, emailed all Liberal Democrat members today to announce that campaigning had already begun. He said:
Our campaign is well underway. We had to hit the ground running, just as we always do in Eastleigh. It’s why we hold every council seat in the constituency. Tim Farron was with us yesterday. All our leading MPs and campaigners are being booked in. Our by-election HQ opens tomorrow. Saturday marks the start of our first action weekend.
– KEITH HOUSE, LEADER OF EASTLEIGH COUNCIL

Its a tactic that will see off EUKIP and show up their hopeless organisation and lack of management preparedness. I suppose Chairman Crowther is responsible for getting their campaign up and running  but that obviously does not inspire confidence following his cock up on the London assembly ballot papers for UKIP.  Responsibilty for Crowther's appointment rests with Farage. He is a typical 'Yes Man' that Nigel likes, prepared to do anything to get his name high up on a UKIP MEP slate.

EUKIP are riding high, at least by their standards, in the polls yet their great leader and media star seems strangely reluctant to step into the media limelight that will shine on Eastleigh these next three weeks. Farage announced he would not stand on Twitter, not many words for Nigel.

He had the day before said he was 'thinking about it'. Click on link to watch this less than stellar interview.

His decision to concentrate on his busy EU duties rather than Eastleigh is chronicled at link

I remember a similar situation over the Lisbon Treaty when I was on the NEC. The House of Lords committee considering this treaty invited contributions. I wrote in with mine as did all of the Yeovil UKIP committee. Duely the report was published, nice red portcullis and all, and all contributors were listed. There were MEPS from all EU countries and parties listed but not one from a UKIP MEP. I challenged Farage and Clarke at the NEC on this lamentable omission. Clarke replied that he could not be expected to know everything and he had been busy with his EU committee work! Even Whittaker, the then NEC chairman was shocked by this breathtaking admission of the truth. He remarked to Clarke that he was not elected by the people of the UK to do the EU's work. Whittaker and Farage were equally culpable but at least had the sense to keep quiet about their cock up.

Its the same at Eastleigh. The Tories are in a shambles over Cast Iron Dave's gay wedding and Labour are not bothered. A great opportunity for EUKIP? Nope, incompetence rules OK. EUKIP is simply not fit for the purpose of fighting Westminster elections. Farage's incompetent leadership has ensured that.

PS I think nominations for Eastleigh must have closed at 5pm, today Thursday 7th Feb 2013, so we should know soon who Eukip's candidate is if Crowther/Reeve got the papers in on time.

Tuesday 5 February 2013

Eastleigh, UKIP & Farage

On 12th Jan I wrote a piece entitled, 'Hell hath no fury like a woman scorned'. The participants then were Marta Andreasen and Neil Hamilton. Today its Vicky Price and her former husband that are the protagonists. She leaked the story to the delicious Isobel Oakeshott  a Times journo and regular participant on the Sunday morning Andrew Neil show. Ms Oakeshott advised Ms Price how to present her case in the media to put herself in the best light

Mr Farage has Ms Andreasen to contend with who also seems to feel scorned. Mr Farage should be worried. Ms Price done huge damage to herself to bring down Huhne. If Ms Andreasen chooses to follow this road it would not be good for the Farage EUKIP cult's electoral prospects.

Who will EUKIP choose as their candidate? Ray Finch aka Skeptyk fought the seat last time winning 3.6% of the vote and losing his deposit.  Farage however suffered a bloody nose at the hands of the diminutive Bercow the last time he parachuted himself into a high profile contest in Buckingham. I presume he will have learned his lesson but if not Mr Finch who? Finch is a run of the mill long time Farage supporter so Nigel will see him as no threat. The most impressive EUKIP candidate I have seen recently is Mr Woolf. He might do well in Eastleigh. I have read someone is pushing Agnew but I cannot take that seriously.

Its more interesting who the LibDems will go for. My money is on a local and I think the Tories will do likewise. The timing will be in the hands of Cleggy as it was a LibDem seat. He will want to delay it as long as possible to give the electorate as long a time as possible to forget Huhne so early May to coinicide with the local eletions looks favourite to me.

Sunday 3 February 2013

Why politicians and big business love the EU

Simples as the meerkat says, it's because it is institutionally undemocratic. The people are seldom consulted and, when they are, if they come up with the 'wrong' answer ie not the response the political elite want they have to vote again and again until they come up with the 'right' answer. All important decisions are made behind closed doors in meetings that only the political elite, and I include in this group the policy making officials of theCommission, and the highly paid skilled lobbyists paid by big business can attend.

Politicians hate elections. They might lose their well paid jobs and the huge social status the letters MP or MEP confer as well as regular invites to Buck House to meet Her Maj. Their wives love that and the opportunity it provides for new outfits, hats etc. Politicians hate meeting us ordinary plebs that is unavoidable during election campaigns. Look what happened to Gordon with Mrs Duffy. Interviews with Paxo, Humphries, Nick Robinson and the other highly paid media 'stars' are easy. They are as much part of the elite as the politicians and are very predictable. The politicians know their style and line of questioning they will pursue. They also have the ultimate sanction over the journos. If they become difficult they no longer are invited to the cosy off the record briefings and no one is made available for their chat shows. The journo is left to swing in the wind and soon disappears from the political scene to be replaced by a more compliant scribbler.

The EU with its party list system and d'Hondt voting system ensures the political elite in all parties are returned in election after election. Its only once every five years after all! All MEPs and MPs believe they are good, hard working and able democratic represenatives. Hence they sincerely think they are underpaid and therefore 'entitled' to supplement their self perceived inadequate income from other sources, expenses, big business consultancies etc. Its a slippery slope leading to banana republic political corruption.

Note that as the expenses scandal receeds in the public memory talk of giving us plebs the right to recall our unsatisfactory MPs has mysteriously disappeared. So we in the Yeovil constituency have to put up with a man who tried to fiddle £40k out of the public purse for his live in boyfriend for another two years. The EU has not even thought about such a recall system. Possibly a criminal convistion would remove an MEP but then the next on the list would step in so no new election there either.

Big business controls the EU via its army of lobbyists. There are of course bungs to MEPs, MPs etc for their election funds which often mysteriously disappear into their private bank accounts but its the lobbyists that get most of the money and who are far more effective than the powerless MEPs. Its different in Westminster where MPs can initiate legislation or get cash for questions asked in the Commons. This is not so in Brussels where legislation can only originate from the Commission so the lobbyists concentrate on the those at the top of various commission directorates. Its all done behind closed doors and we only hear of it when the proposals are put forward to be rubber stamped by the MEPs. Even then the lobbyists watch closely that they vote the right way. Voting is very fast and very boring but if you watch closely and they show a wide angle shot you will see an army of people sitting  in the gallery ticking off how individual MEPs vote. These are the big business lobbyists and that's as close as Joe Public gets to them.

Its brilliantly described in Colin Crouch's book Post-Democracy but it might well cause UKIP old Tories to foam at the mouth and seize up.

Its all helped by the way Euro civil servants career path works they go up the ladder from private industry to government and back to the private sector and when in the public sector they advance the interests of their future employers. Its not at all like the UK career civil servant. Its a corrupt system.

So there it is best beloved, a system where big business controls things to maximise its profits and no outsider can ever pry into what is happening. A system where intellectually limited professional politicians take any flak that is going in return for their little bungs and regular ego massage. A system served by a compliant government controlled media aka the BBC.  No wonder they don't want the UK to leave!