Sunday 31 March 2013

EUKIP MEP wannabees play game of thrones

As always the wannabees do not do it very well. The main character in the Sky series is a Richard III figure,  a Machiavellian dwarf called Tyrion Lannister. The story unfolds from the viewpoint of seven different characters, but Tyrion dominates, if only because he has all the best lines. Asked how he’d like to die by an axe-wielding thug, Tyrion replies, ‘In my own bed, at the age of 80, with a belly full of wine and a girl’s mouth around my…’ Well, you get the idea. He’s cynical and jaded, but also clever and ambitious. You root for him because he’s aware of his moral shortcomings — just like Richard, in fact.

Toby Young in the Spectator likens it to the Tory party.  I disagree it has clear parallels with EUKIP.  The link is http://www.spectator.co.uk/life/status-anxiety/8874071/game-of-thronesits-just-like-the-tory-party/

I envy those of you who can afford Sky and can watch this unfolding political drama.

I don't think the Tories can supply such a rich cast of characters but EUKIP certainly can. They flourish in the dank, dark world of  EUKIP. Casting nominations please. My casting couch awaits.

Saturday 30 March 2013

Cyprus just got worse

This morning Sky reported that the levy on balances over 100k€ had now increased to 60% as per my prediction that it would increase from the 40% to 50%. It just shows you should never underestimate the insensitivity of the Eurocrats to the plight of ordinary people.

Also on cue the human interest story appears in todays DT Money headlined , "Cyprus Grabs Family's Fortune". They sold their villa on the island but now cannot bring the 200000€ back to Britain. I warned abou the inverse of this two days ago for would be purchasers. It works both ways as funds are held in Cyprus lawyers accounts with a Cyprus bank will be aggregated in the client escrow account and so subject to the full 60% theft.

Also on cue Richard North reports in his blog EU Referendum blog details of the Bezzle are starting to leak out. http://www.eureferendum.com/  Richard headlines his piece Eurocrash: corruption at heart of Cyprus crisis. Cypriot banks 'forgave' loans to MPs and firms. That is the EU way, forgive your cronies and rob the rest.

Richard writes, " These tell of an unhealthily close relationship between the Cypriot banks and politicians, and with political parties and trades unions. Thus we hear that the Bank of Cyprus and Laiki, between 2007 and 2012 gave loans amounting to millions to these groups, without in any way seeking full repayment. 

The Bank of Cyprus wrote off the €2.8-million loan given to a hotel with ties to the communist-rooted Progressive Party (AKEL) and forgave significant portions of many other loans. "

There is a whole lot more to come. It is too late if you are already involved in Cyprus. But if you are thinking about buying in Spain or Portugal my advice is don't and if you are selling there it may be best to cut your asking price for a quick sale. This one will run and run unlike Mr Wood's horse!

Thursday 28 March 2013

Cyprus banks open but with restrictions

At Cyprus banks today there were big queues wanting to take out their allotted 300€ today but they seemed well ordered but the hatred of the Germans was clear. More interesting was the Cyprus government announcement of a full investigation into withdrawals by government and bank officials in the month running up to the crisis. Will anyone be brought to book? I doubt it. The withdrawal restrictions are supposed to last only 7 days. A similar tale was told in Iceland which still has currency restrictions 2 years later! I expect Cyprus to be a similar tale.

Central bank figures however tell the true story. Reuter's report today, "Figures published by the Central Bank of Cyprus on Thursday showed that savers from other euro zone countries withdrew 18 percent of their deposits from the stricken island in February, as talk of a tax on bank accounts gained ground.
Overall private sector bank deposits in Cyprus fell by 2.2 percent to 46.4 billion euros last month, after a similar drop in January."
So officially roughly 2 billion plus Euro left Cyprus banks in the run up to the crisis. Once the bezzle is discovered I expect the true figure to be twice that.

Still it all pales into insignificance compared with the profligate MEPs demands for an extra 11bn € on top of their existing 113 bn € budget.  These guys do not live in the real world. Austerity is for other people not the political elite.

Tomorrow as its Easter I shall tell you tales of Moroccan holidays, untraceable taxi drivers and how some EUKIP bans are so very flexible and others are not.



Wednesday 27 March 2013

The Euro Bezzle: why Cyprus banks won't open yet

J K Galbraith one of the few economists worth reading categorised bankers loss progression thus:



First come the losses and the stupidities committed by bankers working for their own self-interest. Then come the rogue traders, unable to ‘fess up on market bets gone wrong. The last to arrive is the bezzle.
That was John Kenneth Galbraith’s word for the outright frauds – the “inventory of undiscovered embezzlement” – that are built up when markets are good. These can be kept hidden for as long as the lies hold up.
The perpetrators are in no hurry to be uncovered, as they face public wrath, not to mention the possibility of many years behind bars. But truth will out.

This is what is going on in Cyprus right now. As I wrote yesterday because of this fraud no one has any idea how much money is left in Cyprus banks. The Cyprus government's cronies were tipped off weeks ago and got their money out then with the help of the bezzle. At the same time a huge inflow of funds into Jersey banks and othe tax havens. There have even been reports of UK depositors moving their funds off shore. This is now going to accelerate.

It also explains why an independent audit of Spanish banks has been resisted by the Spanish government. They know if you go into a Spanish bank traders office you are likely to find a drawer stuffed full of duff deals that are not shown on the bank's books.

Things are going to get a whole lot worse. My advice is get your funds out of Euroland and its wholly owned subsiduary UK plc. Keep your deposits less than 100000€, split it between a number of banks. The Farage educational trust is domiciled in the IOM. I recommend this prudent move to all UKIP members.

I will not be surprised if Cyprus bank openings are further delayed. Pity the poor soul who has just transferred his funds to a Cyprus bank to fund the purchase of his retirement home. They will end up with half their money at best plus no house. That is the benefit the EU brings to the ordinary citizen.

Tuesday 26 March 2013

Farage, Cyprus & Cameron

I have held off writing about the Cyprus crisis until, I hoped, the smoke clears. That now seems unlikely in the near future indeed the opposite seems to be happening from which I deduce nobody knows what was agreed. The best account of what has happened so far that  I could find was in the Wall Street Journal, far and away the best financial paper in the world, click WSJ to read it. It is a long piece but well worth a good read. I miss my WSJ, |US edition, which I used to read assiduously at the BoE.

Farage has had a good Cyprus crisis. There is an excellent piece under his name in today's Telegraph, click DT to read. Farage is absolutely correct. The EU panic is as it was in Greece, Portugal, Spain etc, all about saving their beloved Euro. They don't care about  the millions of young lives they are ruining in these countries. They will eventually end up like Mussolini strung up from a lampost but not before they have reduced their own, and everbody else's country, to economic and social ruin.

Farage was also excellent last night on Newsight where on his new hot topic of immigration he recently pinched from the BNP, he annihilated the useless ex Lab female minister and A N Other, a man so non descript I cannot recall his name. Times are good for Mr F and he is proving Napoleon's dictum that luck trumps brains in politics. There is one cloud on Nigel's horizon I hear there may be a pending bitch fight on the electronic media for his favours.

It is interesting to have so many colourful flawed heterosexual politicians like Nigel and BoJo dominating the UK media to say nothing of Berlusconni in Italy. That is just the way to get people interested in politics. Men who can flaunt their failings and still triumph

Its a pity Flashman Cameron cannot live up to the fictional Flashman. His reheated speech on immigration etc yesterday just showed him up as a not very good PR man selling a deeply flawed product. No wonder so many Tories want to ditch him asap. The only fictional character I can compare Millipede to is Adrian Mole but he did lust after Blair Babe Pandora I think.

Cyprus has lost its financial sector for all time. Its German Euro denominated tourism will also be in freefall given it is now a very expensive compared to Turkey and I presume Northern Cyprus so I expect the economy to contract by 20% over the next 2 to 3 years.

The reason for delaying bank opening yet again cann only be they don't know how much money is left. The haircut I opine is more likely to be 50% than 40% on residual bank deposits over 100k€

Monday 25 March 2013

Cyprus saved - glory hallelujah and in Exeter...

That is if you have less than 100k euro deposits with either of the two big Cyprus banks. One idiot UK Labour MEP chairperson of some EU committee does not know the difference between, equity, bonds and deposits. Come to think of it that is how Brussels thinks as well. That is going native in a big way.

They are already imposing draconian currency controls on those exiting Greek Cyprus, searching luggage and confiscating all your currency over 10k €. Thats what used to happen in the Soviet bloc but then the EU is built on the old USSR plan as is Farage's EUKIP. It also happened in the UK post war until Thatcher abolished them in 1979. Such controls have no place in a free society but will obviously fit well in the EU.

Cyprus is not the only country in Europe with an 'oversized' banking sector the UK and Luxembourg are similarly over endowed. The Eurocrats stash their cash in Luxembourg so no haircuts there but the UK is a sitting exceptional duck. Be afraid, be very afraid, its cash under the mattress time.

Credit will dry up in Cyprus, the economy will shrink by 5%+ per annum and unemployment rise, an EU speciality. If you want to go there go to the North!

Exeter was a glorious success. Best since Nuremberg.
http://www.ukip.org/content/latest-news/2990-nigel-farage-at-exeter-spring-conference

Its like the old Moscow May parade where you your status depends on how close to the leader you were stood. Poor Mr Batten seems to bout of favour but Mr Nattrass may be rehabilated soon. But Nigel is such a tease and so fickle! I expect many changes before May 2014. Surely one of the Farage Youth will be on the slate.

Saturday 23 March 2013

Farage's UKIP benefits from BNP demise

Immigration used to be the issue that dare not speak its name except by the BNP. They have now imploded and UKIP has moved into take over that space now it is safe to do so. It is clearly the right policy to go on and it was good to see Farage going strongly at it in his Exeter speech today. Immigration is the number one issue with middle England and its link to the EU is crystal clear.

Less good was the Farage approved decision to invite one of his less savoury MEP friends from Bulgaria one Stavi Binev named by the former US ambassador in a Wikileaked confidential telegram as involved in prostitution and trading narcotics and stolen cars. Binev was challenged about this by Crick on C4 News tonight and denied these allegations claiming the US envoy had been listening to his enemies. This will now be the standard media tactic to undermine Farage who does have many MEP associates  with similar backgrounds in the pan European group of MEPs he leads. You will see a lot more of this post Eastleigh.

It was disappointing but not surprising to read Crick saying that Mrs James would take the place on the UKIP SE region MEP slate previously occupied by Marta Andreasen. UKIP cannot get us out if the EU lead from, and paid by, Brussels. Taking Brussels thirty pieces of silver clearly remain Farage's top priority. Listen to the end of  his speech.

For those EU crats wanting to pinch Russian money in Cyprus consider the chilling report that controversial Russian oligarch Boris Berezovsky has been found dead at his home in Surrey. Reports claim he took his own life.

Andrew Neil remarks, "Old KGB saying: any fool could commit murder but it takes an artist to make it look like suicide."

Farage also better look at what happened to Mr Huhne at the hands of Ms Pryce and ponder the old saw, hell hath no fury like a woman scorned before he adds to his collection. The ladies might have sympathic journalist friends like Ms Pryce's Ms Oakeshott.

Friday 22 March 2013

UKIP's May 2nd county electoral strategy

Ms James stellar performance at Eastleigh shows the two requirements for a successful UKIP campaign are a good presentable normal candidate  electors like and can identify with plus a concentration on the problems EU immigration is, and will, cause for ordinary people and their families social housing, school places for their children and jobs for themselves and their families. All these are under threat from unlimited EU immigration plus the burden they place on welfare benefits that they have not contributed to but claim for themselves and their children who may not even be resident in the UK!

Jo Co on the Daily Politics revealed that every week Cameron gets the results of an opinion poll reporting what the great British public are most worried about. She reported that over the last 40 weeks immigration has topped the poll every week but one. Its that important and its the big issue that arises directly from our EU membership.

UKIP also had a lot of troops on the ground in Eastleigh. It cannot mount that sort of effort over all 2000 or so county seats. UKIP must concentrate its effort in its strongest areas where it can mobilise most troops but they have to be backing a good candidate and concentrate on immigration where the three main parties are vulnerable. The candidate has to link immigration to every possible local issue but it has to be done in a cool factual way with as little emotion as possible. Mrs James did and every UKIP candidate should try and emulate her cool style. It works.

Which areas? The ones that satisfy the above criteria but its as important to avoid areas with known eccentrics like monarchist fanatics. Let them go and wave union jacks when her majesty visits. It has no place in modern political elections Even more so no Islamophobes or other closet racists. The media will seek out these people and portray them as main stream. A nutter makes good TV but bad politics!

I have already had the LibDem and Tory leaflets but no UKIP. Why is that? Lack of footsoldiers. You cannot win without the footsoldiersI something  EUKIP quafing in the brasseries of Brussels does not get. To succeed UKIP needs a leader based in the UK, preferably Mrs James.

Well done to Lawrence Webb winning a council seat in Havering for an interesting party UKIP Local Residents. Now how did he get that party name past the Electoral Commission?  He is a good guy and not a sycophant. Indeed I recall the Fuerher being  displeased with him possibly because he was close to Gerard Batten. No matter, Mr Webb won and lets hope many more do on 2nd May including Mr Bridgeman.

Thursday 21 March 2013

Farage, UKIP's curate's egg

The TV footage yesterday showing the Cypriot finance minister in Moscow begging the Russians for a bail out says it all about the EU. Will he get his money? I think so with strings of course but Cyprus is a member of the Eurozone so what are they doing? Well they created the problem by making, as one Rusiian minister said, every mistake from the big book of EU cock ups. The ECB has given the Cyprus government until Monday to come up with the money. Or what? Welll not a lot they can do to Cyprus extra to what they have already done.

I have never had any policy differences with UKIP Fuerher Farage. To us the well worn cliche you could not get a fag paper between us on policy. Farage is great at putting the ball into open EU goals and he did this two days ago in an interview he gave to Putin controlled Russian TV. One for the conspiracy theorists to ponder! Click on link  to watch Farage at his best putting the boot into the EU.

My differences with Farage revolve around the strategy and tactics to get us out of the EU where Mr F's EUKIP  is woefully deficient. There were people around who could have filled that gap but alas they have all been purged in Stalinist operations. Like the curate's egg Farage is good in bits but overall fails his party and his country.

So what will happen now in Cyprus? The penny is slowly dropping that rules and due process mean nothing to the Eurocrats. Even the LibDem MEP S Bowles has admiited that. It is therefore very difficult to make any rational forecast of what these people will do next to preserve their sacred cow the Euro.

If I were a Eurocrat I would remember what happened to Litvenenko in London. No one has evere been charged with his murder and no one ever will be. That is global realpolitik. But what happened in London can happen in Brussels or Berlin just as easily.

Cyprus is 0.2% of the EU economy and 12 bn € is peanuts for the EU compared to say a bit of unsolicited Polonium to sweeten your coffee. The reputational damage this has done to the EU is immense. What is there much vaunted banking reform package worth if a government can help itself to its citizens bank deposits when it needs to fill a hole.

Cypriot banks are shut until Monday so the action will switch to Spain. I expect a lot of London bankers will be thing Xmas hascome early.

Gideon's budget was a waste of thime. It was not even good theatre.

Tuesday 19 March 2013

Cyprus shows MEPs useless but Putin holds the whip hand

Del Young pointed out to me why the LibDem flame haired chair person of the MEP economic committee was so miffed on Monday's Daily Politics. She thinks she is a big cheese in EU economic policy and she obviously had not been consulted by the Eurocrats. Quite, the Eurocrats are talented, well qualified and clear in their policies, everything La Bowles is not.

Putting the boot into the Russians was not a smart move by the Germans. Have they forgotten how the Russsians re-modelled Berlin in 1945? Have they also forgotten where the EU gas comes from and that Putin can turn off the gas any time he chooses!

Reuters today  report:


(Reuters) - Russia's envoy to the European Union likened a proposed tax on Cypriot bank deposits on Tuesday to forceful expropriation and said it could lead to the collapse of the Cypriot banking system.

The bank deposit tax, part of a bailout for Cyprus agreed by the euro zone on Saturday, "seems similar to forceful expropriation", , Vladimir Chizhov told reporters in Brussels, in a video conference from Moscow. "The principle ... is wrong."

"This decision is dangerous because of possible social repercussions in Cyprus and it is dangerous in terms of triggering possible domino effects in euro zone countries," he said, speaking through an interpreter.

"And there is another threat. When the banks open, people will rush to withdraw their deposits - that's another threat - and then the whole banking system can collapse," he said.

Russians account for much of the billions of euros held in Cypriot banks by foreign depositors. It banks are heavily exposed to the island.

Although it is not formally on the agenda, Chizhov said he expected the Cyprus issue to be raised in talks between the Russian government and the European Commission in Moscow on Thursday and Friday.

end quote

There is also the question of the promised Russian loan which may not now materialise. The Russians have been big players in Cyprus in recent years, something the EU ruling Franco Prussian elite resent but the sooner they realise Putin has the whip hand the better. If they think they can take Russian mafia money and nothing will happen to them or their families they are mistaken. The mafia has its own way of   extracting payment when it is wronged.

Russian authorities have denied rumours that the Kremlin might offer more money, possibly in return for a future stake in Cyprus's large but as yet undeveloped offshore gas reserves, which have raised the island's strategic importance. Unlike the UK they are not going to throw good money after badf

It was inevitable that at some stage EU geo political ambitions would collide with a real super power state. I did not think it would happen in Cyprus but that is what is happening and that is the real danger in the EU's ambitions. They will take on a real super power and lose.

The BBC ran a report on their 6 pm news prior to the Cypriot parliament vote against the backdrop of a hostile group of demonstrators making their feelings about the EU, its officials and particularly Germans very clear. The organisation set up to bring peace to Europe has failed and we are only at the begining of this process of this failure. The EU have waived the rules many times without punishment. This time the markets will punish them severly and as always its the ordinary people who will have to take the pain.

Sky at 7pm reported the Cypriot MPs had voted overwhelmingly to reject this tax raid. A few abstained and no one voted in favour. They interviewed one Cyprus MP who said the Germans were responsible for the two world wars and were now starting a third by economic power and when challenged on his back up plan repliedthat whatever it cost he would stand up for their countries freedom. Would that our political elite would make similar statements and give us something to get behind.

The Spanish equity index fell 2.5% today. Sterling rose 0.5% against the Euro. These trends will continue tomorrow unless there is a real rethink by the EU. 12 bn euro is peanuts by EU standards but this is now being driven by German electoral considerations. Merkel has a general election in the Autumn to win.

Enough for now. 

Monday 18 March 2013

Cyprus bank raid burns on

There is a lot of finger pointing going on after the Eurocrats shot themselves in the foot over the decision to help themselves to Cyprus bank depositors money. Most of the fingers are pointing at the Germans. The FT headlines today, "Russia attacks Cyprus bail out plan" with Comrade Putin putting the tanks in. I don't know if he personally has any Euro deposits in Cyprus but I am sure some of his pals have. Their editorial is headlined, Europe (surely EU is more accurate) botches another rescue, strong words from the rabidly pro EU pink un. The Cypriots have postponed their crucial vote by another 24 hours. Meanwhile all the bank ATMs on the island have run out of money. Watch what happens tomorrow, Tuesday, when the Cypriot banks reopen. Will the ATMs have been refilled?

There could be quite a lot of angry people outside Cyprus bank's ATMs tomorrow demanding their money. I have always thought the Euros fate would be settled in blood on the streets. Possibly it might be outside a cashless ATM! A bit like Dr Who taking on the Daleks

The FT is not alone of the EU lovers sadly disappointed by their beloved's latest failure. Sharon Bowles Lib Dem MEP, flame haired chairperson of the EU finance committee on today's Daily Politics described herself as incandescent at what the EU had done. Click on link to watch the first 10 mins of this revelation.

Ms Bowles gave some honest answers, staggering coming from a Lib Dem, when Jo Co asked her why this trick had not been used in the EU Irish bailout she replied the Irish banks were mainly bond financed not deposit financed like the Cypusu bands and that as the bond holders were mainly Germans they were untouchable! Wow! Allister Heath described this Germanic bullying of a little country as sordid and to her credit La Bowles did not demur. German real politick has not changed since the days of the Kaiser.

La Bowles then went on that rules had to be obeyed etc. Where has she been these last 20 years? EU rules are applied to the little countries and sympathetically intepreted for France and Germany. That is the EU way, always has been and always will be.

Allister Heath made the excellent point that the EU had put huge emphasis on their wonderful deposit insurance so that deposits up to 100000€ were 100% guaranteed. Not so it seems if you live and bank in Cyprus. La Bowles was clearly shaken. What will they do next she whinged. Quite.

The real confidence sapping effect of this cock up will take some time to come home to roost as people realise the dangers of keeping their money in EU banks particularly Club Med ones. Just as in Greece the noney will drain to Switzerland, Singapore and even the UK if Dave does not do his usual Europhile Act. The result will be that the Eurozone will sink yet further into the slough of despond except of course for the political elite. You could not make it up.


Sunday 17 March 2013

Cyprus tax heist could trigger a run on Euro banks

The news in the last 24 hours that to meet the conditions of the German controlled bail out for their bust banks the Cyprus government intends to impose a 9.9% imediately payable levy/tax on deposits with Cypriot banks over 100,000€ and 6.8% tax on all deposits below that level. This is estimated to raise 6.8bn euro of the 10bn euro bail out Cypriot banks require. This opens Pandora's box big time! There are vague statements of using as yet unrealised gas revenues to help this recapitalisation but nobody really believes that.

There are already TV pictures of  queues at Cyprus bank ATMs trying to get their money out. Remember Northern Rock! Reuters reports,

"Making bank depositors bear some of the costs of a bailout had been taboo in Europe, but euro zone officials said it was the only way to salvage Cyprus's financial sector, which is around eight times the size of the economy.


European officials said it would not set a precedent."
And the band played believe it if you like. It means exactly that. Its a huge precedent  which is why commentators have been decribing it as crossing the Rubicon. I expect to see queues at banks in other Club Med countries tomoorow as depositors try to get their money out. The rich Greeks got their money out to Switzerland over two years ago as they saw this coming.

The Cyprus banks lost a huge amount on their holdings of Greek sovereign debt and the only alternative to a bail out was the thing that would kill the Euro, a bank default, a bit like showing a crucifix to Dracula.

Cyprus is a small country with around 0.3% of Eurozone GDP but this panic spreads very rapidly and once it gets to Spain etc it would be terminal for the Euro.

One thing not widely known is that you can tell where a Euro note was issued from its serial number. I know a number of Europeans who check this very carefully and will only accept German printed notes. In. extremis, the Bundesbank will  honour their own notes. I would not like to be holding Club Med paper or notes now.






Friday 15 March 2013

Bloom shows exactly why UKIP need women candidates

Please look at today's Daily Politics by clicking on link and fast forward into 36 minutes. Bloom looked like and sounded like Colonel Blimp but judge for yourself. He was on with Tory MEP Vicky Ford a pleasant looking and pleasant sounding lady. Bloom soon degenerated into calling her a traitor, a Vichy collaborationist and joked he had missed a vote because it was a cocktail hour. It was a Farage type joke that fell flat and made Bloom look stupid. He was inarticulate compared to Ms Price and showed exactly why in a fptp election when you vote for a candidate not a party nobody will ever vote for Bloom or anyone else from the Cabal .

They were then joined by Green MEP Jean Lambert who seems to share Shirley Williams hairdresser and style consultant but even she looked presentable and sounded reasoanble and pleasant compared to Bloom.

The county council fptp elections due on 2nd May are far more important than the pointless but lucrative Europeans a year later. Parliamentary constituencies are built up from County Council electoral wards. These are the building blocks of UK political power as the LibDems showed in Eastleigh. Farage's EUKIP is just not interested. EUKIP want to get on the EU gravy train and take their 30 pieces of silver. They are like  animals in a zoo that the EU crats keep for amusement. They serve the EU's purpose as well as Rumpy, Frumpy and Barroso do. The EU parliament was deliberately set up this way to attract the sort of people that are MEPs ie those who cannot be elected on their own merit but are party appartchiks par excellence.

Thursday 14 March 2013

The cruel deceit at EUKIP's rotten heart

It is a truth universally acknowledged that even if EUKIP won all 73 UK MEP seats our country would remain a member of the EU on exactly the same terms as before. It was profoundly depressing that immediately after the result of the Eastleigh, Farage was ectstatically pronouncing now we must go on and achieve record results in the Europeans. Such a result will only feather the nests of Farage and his cabal and thus entrench Farage's dictatorial control of the party and in the fulness of time bring forth another embarassing crop of defectors Andreasens, Bannermans etc. EUKIP is built on this lie. It is a cruel deception of its thousands of ordinary, honest decent poor members and exists only to benefit the Cabal financially while the poor ordinary members are fleeced of their 'donations'. EUKIP has no prospect of getting us out of the EU without MPs in parliament.

Power in the UK has since the Civil War rightly resided in the House of Commons. It is not impossible for new, small parties to win such seats at Westminster, the SNP, Plaid Cymru, IRA and the Greens, a non-nationalist party with a woman MP, Caroline Lucas in Brighton.

It was a woman, Diane James who came close to winning Eastleigh with 27.8% of the vote. EUKIPs previous best by-election results in the last 12 months were also by women Jane Collins in Rotherham, 21.79% and Margot Parker in Corby, 14.32%.  The male candidates have done less well, around half the women's percentage vote. Farage's efforts in Buckinghamshire etc have proved to be very expensive flops. The lesson is to choose nice middle class ladies as parliamentary candidates not NF's syscophants and drinking pals. Incidentally that is what polling organisations do when recruiting staff to approach the public. That's where to get UKIP candidates that stand a chance of winning not propping up the bar at the Dog & Duck.

UKIP gets away with these talentless sycophants as candidates in the Europeans as they are buried on the party list and voters can only vote for the party not individuals from different parties. Farage has already established himself as a serial failure in Westminster elections. Do you think Nuttall or Bloom would fare any better? Of course not! Ladies like Mrs James can win because they don't fit the public image of UKIP of BNP in blazers. UKIP's problem is they do not have nearly enough of these ladies. They do of course have a huge surplus of male middle aged sycophants whose main talent is flattering Mr Farage to put them on a UKIP MEP European slate.

Farage is also incapable of drawing the rational lessons from Eastleigh. Here we had the two parties, Con and LibDems, members of an increasingly unpopular coalition government, easy targets for UKIP but yet the LibDems held on. The reason is obvious. Over the years the LibDems have built up a strong local presence winning local council seats steadily until they had virtually 100 %  of the council seats in Eastleigh. In the corse of winning such overall control they built up a very effective electoral machine which had won the Eastleigh by-election shortly after it was called by getting all its postal vote in. Whatever then happened with Huhne and Renard was irrelevant the votes were in the bag.

I well remember when I was being kicked out of UKIP's NEC by Farage hearing him boast to his sycophants that "I will make sure he (that is me) won't even be able to stand for the parish council as a UKIP candidate" Wow, that is really the way to build up strong local UKIP branches but Farage sees UKIP as his personal cult. To dare criticise or oppose the leader is to be drummed out. Do you suppose every Lib Dem in Eastleigh loves Cleggy? I doubt it.

I once stood for the District Council based in Yeovil. I was on my own with no help either in terms of people or money. I got 11.5% of the vote. Yeovil is very similar to Eastleigh. It is dominated by the LibDems who have a very good electoral machine. My candidacy brought me into contact with a number of LibDem candidates many of whom were vociferous in their criticism of their leader. Were they kicked out of the LibDems? No. Were they banned from standing as LibDem candidates? No, they are all still there working away to ensure the LibDems do well in the May County elections and in 2015 they will be out working to get our expenses tainted local MP Laws relected. That is the way proper, dare I say professional, political parties operate but I repeat UKIP is not a party it is a Farage cult.

Watch Farage's interviews after Eastleigh and you will see the low a priority he puts on winning council seats. The EU is where the money is for Nigel and the Cabal so you will see almost all UKIP's election funds squandered on the Europeans as Farage calls them which can never get our countries independence back. Its a pity more of UKIP's ordinary members do not read this blog.

Whilst in UKIP I met three guys who were great at electioneering and won! Trevor Colman now SW MEP, Alan Wood who was a District Councillor in Wiltshire and Stephen Allison who was an independent District Councillor in the North East. Where are they now? Well not out working for UKIP. Does Farage think we can get our country back losing people like that to install sycophants many with dodgy backgrounds

When I was voted on to the SW MEP slate by the membership at number 5 I was appalled that AlanWood was at no 7 and worst of all William Legge OE and failed Tory parliamentary candidate was voted in at number 2 by the members. That shows how little the members know of the candidates they are voting for. Alan should have been number 2 for his work, experience and nous on winning elections. It was of course arranged to remove me from the list by the late Malcolm Wood, Farage's fixer in the SW. I was not even invited by the SW committee to put my case! That is undemocratic UKIP and puts you alongside great democrats like Mugabe. I was proud of our efforts to oppose the Lisbon Treaty when Farage was doing nothing. Loyalty is a two way street. To get it you need to give it. Farage mistsakes flattery for loyalty, a mortal defect in a leader.

In summary choose women candidates if possible and vigorously contest the County elections. I have some good opinion poll figures I will write on tomorrow.

Tuesday 12 March 2013

The coalition is way past its sell by date

In cricket terms the Tories are way behind on the scorecard. They are on a difficult difficult wicket, held back by the LibDems who often seem to be batting for the other side. There have been  some dodgy selections at the top of the order. Gideon is just not up to being Chancellor. No one in the City is surprised.

Cast Iron Dave and his fellow LibDem Cleggy cling to each other like drowning men. In the good old days the men in grey suits would have emerged from smoke filled rooms to tap Dave on the shoulder and say come in Dave your time is up. Lets have Maggie May or the other Dave or Scots hard man Liam and ditch your yellow LibDem pals at the same time.

Dave's sterling willy like his AAA rating is shriveling in the Arctic blast of the financial winter. Click on link and  read Allister Heaths piece in today's City AM. to appreciate how dire UK Plc's finances are. A shrinking pound, down 8.6% against the $ this year and by almost as much against the €. 10 year gilt yields at 2% so below inflation under the influence of Merv's money printing which is also stoking up a huge boom in the FTSE, an international index not a UK one, but up now to 6500 its highest since Dec 2007.

Here and in Euroland there are many zombie banks kept alive on an intensive care of zero cost money from the central banks. These are the walking dead, contributing nothing but problems to the UK and Eurozone economies. Does Gideon have any idea what to do about this? Well maybe another ski trip to help forget.

The UK has been living beyond its income for many years. As Robert Browning wrote 170 years ago about another decadent state, Venice, "What of soul was left, I wonder, when the kissing had to stop?"   

Liam Fox is correct. We need to remove the ring fence around the NHS and the Overseas Aid budget but what of our EU contributions direct and indirect. We  cannot afford to be a member of that vanity club for politcians. If they want a seat at the top table let them put their hand in their pocket and pay for it and keep their thieving fingers away from our wallets.

If this requires the break up of the coalition then so be it. Who cares but some fat cat useless Con and LibDem politicians? Huhne was the one that got caught but what of the other thieves still with their bums on the green and red leather?

The BBC have deigned to reply to my FoI request. I copy their fulsome reply below:


Dear Mr Edmond,
 
Thank you for your request for information under the Freedom of Information Act 2000, as detailed in your email below. Your request was received on 11th March 2013.  We will deal with your request as promptly as possible, and at the latest within 20 working days. If you have any queries about your request, please contact us at the address below.
 
So I have to wait another 20 days for my non-reply!



Sunday 10 March 2013

BBC QT audience rigging revealed

Its great the BBC underhand tactics of last Thursday have been outed. Click on link for the sordid tale of one Amy Rutland, a paid Labour party staffer who attacked Diane James in most abusive terms and was rightly put in her place by Melanie Philips. Worse Ms Rutland boasted on Twitter she had been in touch with the Labour panelist  Stephen Twigg before the show and as the show is pre-recorded then boasted on Twitter before the show was broadcast that she had 'ripped into' Diane James.

I wrote on Friday that based on my watching the show she was a Labour plant. That has now been confirmed. She was clearly there with the young man on her right who also was favoured by Dimbleby. On that man's right there was a dark haired woman who said she was a teacher and was also allowed a long spiel. On the front row, extreme left there was another 30 something woman who was called by Dimbleby twice and repeated the same accusations of scaremongering against Mrs James. Dimbleby was clearly listening to his producer before he went to these three women.

The young more abusive one featured in camera shot three times before she was called. The BBC were clearly checking their camera shot angles before the big attack. It was quite incredible that when Mrs James attempted to answer the properly put audience question about the effect of Eastleigh Dimbleby did not let her answer but insisted she answer the abusive attack from Ms Robson. What is going on? I have never seen a member of the audience allowed to repeatedly use such abusive, unsupported language to a panelist. Clearly Twigg knew the young woman.

I have never been in the Question Time audience but I suspect that these womem were placed in these seats deliberately by the BBC so they could be easily featured. I would be grateful if anyone who has could comment on my suspicions. Does the BBC place audience questioners in suitable seats?

I am often portrayed by the Farage trolls as anti-UKIP. I am nothing of the sort. I am very pro the UKIP cause and have been since 1972 but I do not think Farage is a suitable leader. The  Guardian has already started in on him click on link to read. UKIP is currently a Farage cult and what worries me is if the media take out Farage, which they surely will, our cause goes with him.

I will go on doing what I can for UKIP and to that effect I will submit a FOI request to the BBC on the statistical breakdown of their QT audience along the lines of their audience application form. Click on link to read it. I expect to be fobbed off but its something UKIP should pursue.


Friday 8 March 2013

EU philes are running scared of UKIP

The game changer was the excellent performance of Diane James in the Eastleigh by election coming a close second to the no sex please we're LibDems and pushing Cast Iron Dave's Tories into 3rd place and leaving their candidate in tears. Ms Hutchings was a decent candidate but politics is a blood sport.

Last night Ms James was on QT receiving the usual BBC biased treatment with a rigged audience. Dimblebore did his best to unsettle her using a juvenile, rude female plant in the audience. Ms James did well I thought but the rude juvenile was suitably squashed by the razor sharp Melanie Phillips. I will write further on this QT when I have time to do a full analysis.

I wrote yesterday how the penny was dropping with many big UK companies that profitable expanding business was to be found not in he EU. That is very worrying for the Europhiles as they  get so much money from big business.

More worrying still is the announcement  that Farage, building on Ms James Eastleigh success, had a private dinner on Tuesday with the dirty digger himself, Rupert Murdoch. This has driven Europhiles into a frenzy. Reuters headlined their report,

Murdoch dines with British anti-EU leader, critics cry foul

It details a strop from Peter Wilding, director of British Influence, a group campaigning for Britain to stay inside the EU, said Murdoch's meeting had helped UKIP to enter the political mainstream.

"It's dangerous and it's mischievous," he told Reuters. "For Murdoch anti-Europeanism is a religion and his influence over the debate has been hugely powerful and hugely negative."
That shows UKIP is now making real progress. Click on link to read this encouraging Reuters piece.

PS Saturday morning large piece on Farage by FTs political editor click here to read

Thursday 7 March 2013

Business views on the EU are changing!

The Euro philes have a horde of tame businessmen whom they regularly wheel out to predict disaster if we were to leave the EU whenever it looks like cast iron Dave might be sprouting a backbone. These people are drawn from the same well as public sector managers like Nicolson and are as wedded to the large bonus as any bankers. They do not represent the ordinary people of this country, its their bonus which is closest to their heart.

It was refreshing then to read Jim O'Neil, UK national and just retired head honcho at Goldman Sachs in an interview with the DT business say his thinking on UK membership of the EU had radically changed in recent months. This interview coincided with the announcement of the EU whizzo plan to curb bankers bonuses. Funny that! Click on link to read.

To be a successful  investment banker you have to be ready to alter your stance if you are getting on the wrong side of the market. This is why they are very rich and politicians are relatively poor and jealous. There is nothing wrong with as Keynes said changing your views when the facts alter. If our politicians had followed that sage advice we would have left the EU 25 years ago. However the only way our politicians know of enriching themselves is by making us, the people poorer through high taxation and silly regulation.

A very smart businessman once said to be that there are markets where it is easy to do business but difficult to make money and there are markets where it is difficult to do business but easy to make money and that he much prefered to operate in the latter. Nigel's two market types, yes that was his name, I add a third the EU single market where it is difficult to do business because of over regulation and difficult to make any money because the politicians have taken all the peoples money for grandiose useless political projects like the Euro. My friend Nigel's other piece of advice was you can't make money in Greece because there is no money there. How very true as we have found out.

Even dear Roland Rudd, (surely some mistake should br Rat) the Davos media high priest lobbyist of the EU  is unhappy about the EU regulating remuneration. Allister Heath sums up the EU bash the City of London on in his March 6th piece thus,


"Most of Europe has it in for the City, London’s most important asset. It is a tragedy that the British government has been too cowardly to do anything about it. If Britain had really wanted to block this, it could have threatened to disrupt all EU business until it got its way. And no, saying yes to everything else, including the EU budget, or being more “constructive” or more “engaged” would not have worked.
France would never have allowed a measure deliberately designed to cripple the wine industry, and Germany would not have tolerated a policy deliberately designed to push car manufacturing offshore. The uselessness of the British government during these negotiations was matched only by that of the industry itself. Banks have refused to speak publically, preferring to seek deals behind the scenes. Their silence was as shocking as the failure of their strategy was monumental. City workers have most of all been let down by supporters of the increasingly destructive European Union, including many of the firms now being hammered by its maliciousness and stupidity."
I have been warning of this danger to the City since I started to write this blog 4 years ago. Its going to happen soon.

The Telegraph today carries the story headlined, "European Sales fall hitsGSK head's pay". GSK sales fell 7% in Europe last year. GSK announced a review of its European operations which is likely to see a move away from continental Europe into emerging markets. 
Also Aviva the insurance giant cut its dividend yesterday, blaming losses in Eurozone bond markets. Even the French & Italian debt managers have warned off the Tobin tax, another EU favourite threatening their ability to shift their sovereign debt. 
Reuters reports today,
Prime Minister David Cameron said on Wednesday he wanted to ensure EU plans to limit bankers' bonuses did not threaten the national interest, but it later became clear that Britain is only seeking minor changes to what is almost a done deal.

Britain was left isolated at a meeting in Brussels on Tuesday after it failed to water down new European union rules that will cap bankers' bonuses, a measure that could threaten London's dominance as a global financial centre.

What other country has such a supine leader who will not stand up for our interest. Just say No Dave and tell the EU if they persist we will gum things up big time. As the Iron Duke said,
Britain's battles with the EU were lost on the playing fiels of Eton and in the Bullingdom club.
The tectonic plates of UK industry re the EU are starting to shift but it needs leadership from our political elite.
I


Wednesday 6 March 2013

Is Diane James UKIP's Joan of Arc?

It is widely reported that Ms James will be on tomorrow nights Question Time. I wish her well but she must be circumspect in her comments. Dimblebore D embodies the BBC LIb Dem elite. He was also a former member of the Buller like Dave, Gideon and BoJo. Joan of Arc won several important victorys for France in the 100 years war for which a French bishop had her burned at the stake aged 19. I am sure Ms James will escape this fate. A good performance tomorrow will establish her as UKIP's leader in waiting. let us hope we don't have to wait too long.

Not so Mr Collins, Chairman of UKIP Bristol who has been caught on the media making ill considered remarks which were gleefully replayed on the local BBC TV news tonight. He has stood down as UKIP candidate in the forthcoming County Elections. It is as I opined and there will be many more Mr Collins.

But its your UKIP enemies behind you that you must watch also. Look what is happening now to Chris Pain newly elected to UKIP's NEC. The UKIP trolls, you know who's attack dogs, are operating against him in full smear  mode. He goes where I and many others, Del Young and David Abbott to name but two have gone before. Its the UKIP way for those who put our cause before the leader.

Tuesday 5 March 2013

Have the BBC started on UKIP already

UKIP, as cast iron Dave once remarked, has a lot of fruit cakes and loonies. These will be quite easy for the BBC to find as many of them post their views on Tony Butcher's British Democracy forum. Most of them post as anonymous trolls but I have no doubt an organisation with the BBC's IT resources could easily track them down.

I still get attacked by these trolls although I have not posted there for a number of years. Some of these previous  attacks were libelous and if these cowards had the courage to put their names to their posts I would have sued them for libel and defamation. Now, I know when these postings starts up again, which they do from time to time, I must be getting close to the Brussel's bone.

I noticed one of these postings by troll FKEU on Niall Warry's thread that I quote below,

Neil who got invited on QT and did ok and pushed the UKIP brand you mean?

Now that implies the Beeb invited Hamilton.  Wonder why? Well if you read my previous post you will understand. The Beeb has already started on its UKIP smear campaign and who better to start with than Neil Hamilton, whose name is synonymous with the Tory sleaze allegations at the end of the Major government.

Next up might be UKIP's ecentric collection of leaping Lords and pseudo Lords, Monckton, Pearson and W Legge aka Dartmouth. The Beeb have stacks of footage on the latter two. Pearson, NF's nominee as party leader who before the 2010 election seemed unaware of great swathes of the UKIP manifesto much to the amusement of Andrew Neil. W Legge gave a stellar tantrum performance in the European parliament chucking his papers around like a spolit child much to the amusement of the Europhiles. Some of Monckton's claims are off the wall.

Eccentric Lords make great TV and I expect the Beeb to milk this to the full.

There is lots of great footage of Nigel's friend G Bloom UKIP MEP to use as well plus of course Andreasen ex UKIP MEP with lots of footage of her and Nigel very close and chummy. Those were the days!

UKIP's spin doctors and fire fighters are going to be kept very busy but of course the real killer will be when the media start on Nigel! Eastleigh hurt the political and media Establishment and they are out for UKIP's blood.


Monday 4 March 2013

How the BBC will destroy UKIP

I start with a statement of the obvious, the BBC detest UKIP. The Beeb is staffed by Guardian reading, Lib Dem supporting Europhiles. Indeed you don't get recruited by the BBC unless you fit this profile. They want UKIP to disappear from the UK political scene as fast as possible and will do everything in their power to bring this about.

Eastleigh has been a wake up call not only for Cast Iron Dave but for the Beeb. They will of course give their usual pseudo objective but Europhile biased coverage of all topics. Europhiles will be interviewed sympathetically and Eurosceptics aggressively. Rules will be rrigorously applied to UKIP but interpreted for the LibDems ie the usual pro EU coverage with hours of  unchallenged airtime for Clarke, Heseltine, Mandelson etc.

Far more dangerous are UKIP's own fruit cases and loonies. The BBC will search them out, flatter them, interview them, carefully edit the interview and thus promote the nutter image of UKIP. This cannot be controlled as there are so many of these people some even personally brought in by the party leader for their high media profile but who have subsequently fallen out with the leadership. I don't have to name them. You can guess who they are.

At UKIP branch level there is a plethora of such people. Most are well meaning, decent, honest ordinary people with a bee in their bonnet and easy meat for the BBC smart Alecs. At MEP level there are convicted criminals, mysogynists, Islamophobes. All however will be eager to pontificate when a film crew knocks at the door.

There will be an incessant drip of this negative material. Some might call it negative campaigning but remember this is the BBC! They will not be short of material. Remember that for an average 30 min documentary the Beeb will shoot 100 hours of interviews. With a bit of skilled editing you can make that material support any story you want.

It will wind up with the fobiles of the latest as yet unannounced Farage appointees. Never the best judge of character NF there will soon be a new crop of Andreasens and Bannermans for Nigel to eventually disown. Still we have Gawain to keep a lid on this sort of thing. He is going to be a busy man!

Even the supreme dear leader himself is rumoured to be under scrutiny by the media for an 'in depth' investigation. I can't wait.

Sunday 3 March 2013

What now Farage?

First the good thing about Eastleigh was that three parties Lib, Con and UKIP put up good candidates. All were people with experience of  work and family life. around mid-life. There were no juvenile haed office policy wonks like Milliband, Clegg and Cameron. Labour went for the parachuted in media personality and got trashed. That can only work in safe seats like Liverpool Wavertree wher the central party machine can ride rougshod over the local party as its majority is so large it does not need party activist workers to win.

It's different in marginals like Eastleigh where you need a good candidate that local party activists will go out and work for.  The LibDems had a larger, younger, better motivated and better equiped army of workers than the Tories and UKIP's last minute cobbled together shambles, props S Crowther & L Duffy. LibDem local  activist knowledge was the difference between winning and losing. Thanks to Farage UKIP does not have such people. They were all purged  by UKIP's Stalin years ago as Andreasen pointed out recently.

These good candidates were chosen by the local party not by head office. Farage's UKIP .is going in the opposite direction. UKIP's PBI were recently conned into voting supreme powers on candidate selection to Farage. It was little different in practice in 2009 where the only two non-Farage sponsored caniddates were Batten in London and Colman in the South West and Farage tried hard to have them deselected in favour of his sycophants. Greg Beaman voted  as number one on the North West UKIP MEP slate conveniently stood down in favour of Farage's favourite Nuttall whom we have had to suffer ever since.

Farage then goes on TV at Eastleigh to bad mouth the 2009 MEP group that he largely approved. Incredible! He was the one who chose Andreasen and Bannerman who deserted to the Tories. Look at his favoured candidates and media spokesmen now, the Hamiltons. Poor little Batten will be deselected for disloyalty not to UKIP or its policies but for daring to stand against Farage. Trevor Colman continues to plough his lone furrow in the South West upholding UKIP policies. He will be deselected by Farage in favour of Neil Hamilton. That really will put UKIP on the high moral ground dpn't you think!

Farage gave away his future plans when bathing in the media attentions earned by Ms James at Eastleigh. We must now move on to a mould breaking performance in the 2014 European election he trilled. and then added as an after though t and of course the county elections in May this year. That showed Farage's  priorities. There is a one million pound pay off to all MEPs elected in 2014 and for county elections? Well for sure they don't improve Farage's bank balance.

Its brilliant the way the EU corrupt political systems and politicians. MEPs have just passed a vindicitive piece of legislation against the City of London disguised as a move against banker's bonuses. The Swiss have a similar bill before them. What are they doing? That's right they are having a binding referendum!

The EU hate asking or consulting us ordinary, dare I say it, plebs. The have 750 EU paid, and thus largely EU controlled, MEPs who like Mr Farage know on which side their bread is buttered. Its so much easier to keep all decisions in the hands of the political elite who all uphold EU groupthink. Even if EUKIP won all 75 or so UK MEPs they would still be controlled by the EU who has them by their bank balances. It was always thus and UKIP's wannabees know this.

The only way out of the EU is through the hard unpaid slog of winning seats in County Elections but Farage prefers the easy lucrative path to EU loot. Eastleigh is not the begining Farage claims. It was a unique coincidence of UKIP favourable factors. It is the high water mark that we wll not see again in my life time.

Friday 1 March 2013

Why UKIP lost Eastleigh

First congratulations to Diane James. She was fresh, fragrant and excellent. Very good to hear her say Farage could not have done better than she did. I would go further. Farage would not have done as well as Ms James.

Look at who Farage put up as UKIP spokesman on Newsnight last nigh, Neil Hamilton! A man who is synonymous with Tory sleaze at the end of the Major government who helped condemn us to 13 years of Labour rule and slow bankruptcy. That tells you everything about Farage's judgement of  UKIP spokesmen and candidates. He likes sleaze. He is uncomfortable with honest intelligent clean people.  He likes to have people around him with few skeletons he can rattle. It makes him feel secure.

Look at how his protege Andreasen was used by the Tories to damage Diane James' campaign!. Those of us who opposed Andreasen going on a UKIP MEP slate as she failed six candidate criteria were villified by Farage and his trolls and kicked out of UKIP on a dodgy dossier compliled by the Tory mole and defector Bannerman. Pure John LeCarre!

Farage should read Machaevelli's book "The Prince" where he makes the point that a national army fighting for a its homeland is what a ruler can rely on and highly paid mercenaries cannot be relied on. They will always desert when it suits them as Andreasen and Bannerman have done. Farage's latest protege Hamilton is just another mercenary. He is there to get on the EU gravy train and collect £1million for passing Go in Brussels.

The reason UKIP lost this seat they could have won is the total neglect by Farage of bulding up a proper party structure with strong and growing constituency branches. Farages has been doing the opposite, shutting down branches and kicking activists out of the party. For why? They were all fully signed up to UKIP policies. Their only failing was they  rightly questioned Farage's people judgement, Andreasen, Bannerman Hamilton etc . You can't win by shooting your own soldiers.

The LibDems won by getting their postal votes out and back in the first week of the campaign crucially before the Rennard/Clegg scandal broke. They had 6000 votes rougly  in the bag by end of week around  half their final 13342 total vote. UKIP's organisation was pathetic. If I were Ms James this morning I would feel very  let down by my party but what can you expect from an organisation that could not even get their candidates names on the ballot paper in the London assembly elections.

She clearly won the vote on the day hands down but as Edith Cavell said before the German's shot her patriotism is not enough.