Dr. Eric Edmond's Blog

Farage, the BBC's useful idiot

2012-02-10T06:28:00.000-08:00

I am grateful to Major Warry for reminding me of Lenin's description of UK left wing intelligentsia o the 20s. For Farage the description is self seeking, vain wannabee TV chat show host but still a very useful idiot for the Euro phile and EU financed BBC. He enables the BBC to tick the eurosceptic balance box whilst doing no harm to the EU cause. and more likely benefiting the EU

Click on the link below to watch NF telling a big porky.

Farage on Andrew Neil show

Did you spot it. When Jo Coburn asked NF how many women MEPs UKIP has he replied two when any fule do kno there is only one after the Farage assisted exit of Nikki.

My main complaint about Farage is not that he is a poor leader but that he denies media space to those who could make the leave the EU case in a far more professional, well informed and effective manner that could really further our cause and help win UK parliamentary seats. Names like Richard North, Trevor Colman, Nikki Sinclaire etc spring to mind.

But while Farage sits there smirking in the BBC studios thinking what a terrific media star he is he helps the BBC EU phile cause no end. Note how often the BBC shows clips and pix of Farage in his Arthur Daley camel hair velvet collar coat. Now why do they do that I wonder?

Listen to George Eustice MP on the hour long clip. He used to be a UKIP candidate! His understated remarks show why he is an MP. Compare it to Farages shrill and hectoring manner and you know why he loses parliamentary elections.

PS

I gather some of my readers are having difficulty posting comments on my blog. I have tried it under the open ID tag and it works but possibly the easiest way is to open a google email account which costs nothing and post using this email address. You dont have to use it for your proper emails although it will do this as well.

BBC protects Farage again!

2012-02-09T09:28:00.000-08:00

I switched on the Andrew Neil politics show at 12:00 today to find Farage and my former colleague from the BoE Matthew Hancock on the show.

Jo Coburn asked Farage how many women MEPs UKIP had. Farage replied two which is of course untrue as Nikki Sinclaire left UKIP sometime ago as she did not wish to sit with Farage's EU neo Nazi allies. UKIP has one female MEP, the semi-detached mid European Marta Andreasen. I did email theDaily Politics to point out this untruth but received only the usual non-reply.

It is disappointing given Andrew Neil's careful research for all his interviews. My old buddy Matt Hancock was given a real going over by A Neil in a well researched interview. He did not do well but Farage got the kid glove treatment from the notoriously pro EU Brussels Broadcasting Corporation. Why?

Clearly the BEEB regard Farage as an ally in their pro-EU campaign. He is pathetic but he does keep people who could do serious damage to the EU off the air which suits the BBC's book. A Neil also interviewed George Eustice, now a Tory MP, but previously a UKIP candidate who gave the game away by pointing out UKIP is really just a Farage cult not a serious political party and thus whilst Farage remains leader the Europhiles can sleep easily .

How the other half lives, Pensioners & Qatada

2012-02-08T05:30:00.000-08:00

Occasionally I have to travel on the local buses from our little village into the mighty metropolis of Yeovil, seat of Law's bum. I learn a great deal from meeting the bus users mainly OAPs and teenagers about the importance of such services.

First, its a social club as much as a transport service. Many of the OAPs live on their own as their spouses have predeceased them and they are delighted to have someone to talk to for the half hour or so. Interestingly it gives the teenagers I chance to talk to their elders and help and learn from them and they obviously enjoy it on both sides.

These OAPs are frozen during this cold spell. There were tales of burst pipes and incredibly cloths frozen in their washing machines. They were all burning all the heating they had, central, coal & wood and even electric. They remain cheerful but incredibly our callous LibDem council is proposing further cuts to this essential service. It takes these OAPs into Tescos and Marks where they can buy basic food and clothes.

Would it not be better to cut Laws' parliamentary expenses instead? Laws is in deep electoral trouble thanks to his exposure in the DT expense fiddles. I hope he gets kicked out next time.

The other thing that shocked me was a headline in one paper today saying we were paying millions of pounds a year for police to protect this foreigner Qatada. What on earth for? He entered our country illegally. He is not a citizen. He is entitled to no more police protection than any other citizen ie not a lot unless you are a member of the royal family or our self serving political elite!

If his statements create anger and make him likely to be attacked then he has a perfectly simple low cost and effective remedy. Shut up!

I have no doubt the bleeding heart LibDems and the boy will wring their hands and agonise about sending him back to Jordan where he belongs and of course do nothing. That's the people the UK electorate voted for.They are the guilty men and women who do not stand up to defend our country or its people .

Trevor Colman lays out how we extricate our country from the EU

2012-02-07T06:31:00.000-08:00

Today I received two communications re UK membership of the EU. One by email came from th-eu-nit.com, Trevor Colman's unit that publishes facts relating to the many costs and few benefits of UK membership of the EU. Its an excellent piece of work, click here to view. Its the best and most concise summary I have ever seen and heard on what EU membership costs the UK. I congratulate all involved in its production. Please view it and circulate it as widely as possible to any of your friends who are interested.

The second communication I received was Farage's EUKIP so called Independence magazine. It included voting papers for yet another set of constitutional changes whose sole and only objective is to tighten the Farage cabal's grip on EUKIP the same way the EU is remorselessly tightening its control of our country.

If you are not in receipt of a copy I suggest you contact David Callice at mail@ukip.org and ask him to send you a copy. You can then compare the content and production for yourself of these two anti EU publications and judge for yourselves on who is more likely to get our country back for our children and grandchildren.

Trevor was like Nikki, Mike Natrass, Del Young, Martin Haslam and many others kicked out of UKIP for daring to question Farage, his motives and associates in relation to the EU.

Today QE, tomorrow Weimar, the day after the Nazis

2012-02-05T11:29:00.000-08:00

The Fed, the ECB and the Bank of England are now indulging in money printing on a scale even Robert Mugabe never managed. Its the easy short term way out for the political elite as its dire consequences for the electorate do not all appear immediately.

One consequence of near zero interest rates, a necessary condition for QE however has been noticed. People with savings receive almost zero interest and those with large debts including sovereign governments pay almost nothing in interest repayments. As inflation continues unabated at 4% plus this means negative real interest rates for savers so what your savings will buy is steadily diminishing

Meanwhile those with large debts secured on real assets will benefit when the price of these assets rise because of inflation

So what we have now is a hidden transfer of wealth from the prudent saver to the feckless and imprudent debtor. This will continue and will accelerate as it did in the German Weimar Republic in the late 1920s until the prudent middle class find their wealth has been largely destroyed and only the spivs and feckless thrive. In those conditions far right parties will thrive They will have the support, explicit and tacit, of the great silent majority, the middle class.

Its a frightening prospect but already we have had two democratic European governments replaced by EU politburo puppets. Who will be next? Not one of our politicians has objected to the EU Nazi behaviour so far. When they come for us it will be too late

UKIP similarities to RBS

2012-02-03T12:46:00.000-08:00

Listening to the RBS saga this week I was struck by the structural management similarities between RBS and UKIP both dominated by autocratic domineering leaders walking all over inadequate and weak boards whose alleged function is to rein in their chief execs worst follies.

On the RBS board there was a so called chairman plus a collection of well remunerated allegedly independent non executive directors who unanimously voted through the disastrous takeover of ABN Amro, a can or worms loaded with toxic debt. The killer was the Fred decision to buy ABN for cash not by issuing RBS shares. This so depleted RBS reserves that it went under in the subsequent credit crunch.

Fred has been a useful sole whipping boy for this disaster but of course the non-execs were also culpable. But as Tiny Rowlands once famously remarked non-execs serve the same purpose as Xmas decorations on your tree. They have no useful function. They collect a fat fee, typically around 80K per annum . But who appoints them? Well the chief exec usually appoints these people so its unprofitable to oppose the chief exec. You tend to end up as an ex non-exec very quickly!

Its a system wide open to abuse and manipulation. The only real check is the AGM where the board has to answer questions from the shareholders from the floor. Motions critical of the board are also discussed and voted on but these have to be submitted in advance of the meeting.

Compare this with UKIP. Farage is all powerful with huge powers of patronage to put some unusual people onto UKIP MEP slates and remove those whom he sees as his political enemies irrespective of how good they would be for UKIP. The UKIP NEC is supine and compliant kept obedient by the hopes of MEP preferment which requires unquestioning obedience to Nigel's wishes.

UKIP does have an AGM but there is not the strict rules that govern company AGMs. In fact there don't seem to be any rules at all!

As for members asking questions from the floor, forget it! The last time I was at a UKIP meeting where Farage answered members questions they all had to be submitted in writing in advance so that inconvenient questions that Mr Farage might find difficult to answer can be weeded out by the wannabee MEP chairman and never get asked.

It was amusing that at the infamous Nov NEC meeting where Mr Mottram appeared his initial question to Farage was why Farage continued to employ his wife on a fat salary when the practice was against the code of conduct. Indeed!

The other similarity is in the waste of capital by Fred and political capital by Farage. The last European elections were held just after the expenses scandal had infected and crippled LibLabCon. Never was there such a propitious moment for UKIP. The three main political EU phile parties had all shot themselves in the foot at once. It was a chance that will never come again for UKIP. Farage and the cabal pissed the chance away. They got one more MEP than at the election 5 years previously!

They are incapable of converting the huge anti-EU sentiment in the UK into meaningful electoral results that will kick start our exit from the EU. Instead the Cabal prefer to squabble over the the mess of potage thrown to them by the EU.

Which organisation has been worse led RBS or UKIP? Well at least RBS have now got new leadership. UKIP has not. It is under the total control of the Cabal who will ensure new leadership won't happen. The EU gravy train is what they want. That is why they are in UKIP.

Our politicians ignorance of history costs us dear

2012-01-29T13:18:00.000-08:00

As a Scot I was glad to see the darling of our liberal media elite A Marr, a less well educated Scot, corrected this morning on the subject of the break up of the United Kingdom.

Wee Alec trounced big ears Marr this morning on the subject of his wanting to break up the United Kingdom. Wee Eck pointed out the UK was set up by the union of the crowns in 1603 following the death of Lizzie I and accession of Jimmy I and VI and that the SNP supported and would maintain this. What the SNP want out of is the 1707 Union of the Parliaments Act.

Its a pity our political class don't know their history. It would have saved us many lives and much gold in Afghanistan if they had read the history of the Afghan wars in the 19th century particularly the retreat from Kabul c 1840. A British Army of two thousand went in and I think two came out. A bit like Napper's retreat from Moscow and Merkozy's coming retreat from Euro land.

Another who does not know his history is Old Etonian William Legge, UKIP MEP for the South West, who has been making silly statements about the ECHR and what we need

is a return to British legal values. The ECHR was in fact set up by the distinguished UK lawyer Maxwell Fyffe in 1946 to bring British legal values to the unfortunate Continentals.

Its the personnel of the ECHR that is the problem not its core principles and values.

I have written little recently on the Eurozone monetary problems. Its been a busted flush for over a year now and has been on life support with constant infusions of newly minted central bank money. As a dog returns to its vomit so a fool returns to his folly. Sarky and his chums are desperate chiens seeking re-election. Admitting the failure of their pet project would be the final nail in his coffin.

As I have previously opined this whole sad business will be settled on the streets of the European capitals with much blood shed and many heads broken but unfortunately not the guilty ones. The boy will vacillate but eventually do what his paymasters demand and support the failed EU project. Another Old Etonian who has not read the history of monetary unions.

They don't seem to do history at Eton even of the last war. Putting an EU German gauleiter into Athens to rule Greece is crazy! Read what the SS did in Greece in the last war Dave and try and learn.

Prober outlines EUKIP's failings

2012-01-24T03:41:00.000-08:00

There is someone who posts on Butcher's forum under the nom de plume Prober who is one of the few worth reading on that site. Most of the posts are made by anonymous Farage wannabee MEPs eg Gothmog who are scared to post under their real names and are impervious to huge volumes of inconvenient facts. Click on link to read Prober's latest effort. Its on a thread started by Niall Warry on the topic "What should our Exit and Survival Strategy be from the EU?"

Niall Warry has correctly identified this as a major defect in EUKIP's largely non-exisitent political strategy. The lack of any coherent strategy is a result of EUKIP degenerating into a Farage cult with talented members being smeared and removed to join the swelling army of former UKIP members which now far outnumbers UKIP members.

I quote Prober's post in full below:

"Clegg says (unchallenged) that UK has to stay subordinate to EU because 2 million jobs and 40% of our exports ( implying 40% of our income) is bound up with EU and would be lost if we pulled out.

One would have thought that ages ago UKIP would have articulated and quantified on its website a vision for a future of and step by step pathway to a UK outside the EU emerging as a global
outward looking production and bilateral international trading link nation ....to replace the inward looking future of being hampered by a declining high cost EU. An essential part of such public
education would be to identify and realistically quantify the short and long term political and economic costs and and benefits and what would need to be done to ensure that the man in the street is not hit in the pocket and how he would benefit.

In addition, the idea that after (if) UK walks away or renegotiates membership, the EU (despite its problems) is just going to disappear makes UKIP look head in sand ridiculous. To establish its credibility UKIP should have on its website its identification of what a future EU could be like ( an association of free nations in co-operation and negotiated bilateral free trade with no powers over nations) , how it could be structured , how a pathway could come about and what savings would result and what UK's relationship to it would be. UKIP was wedded to election campaignprinciples of "keep it simple just say " NO !" That gets 16% of the vote .

Note that if a referendum on pull out from the EU is held today it would be lost because the "fear factor" would overcome antipathy towards the EU. One would have thought that a prime objective of UKIP would be public education targeted to overcome that fear. Its shop window ( its website) doesnt seem to indicate it is very important.

A party hungry for success would deeply attack the record of big 3 MPS and failure of their parties as cant or wont provide the EU solution in the interests of UK people. UKIP hardly tries except for the odd squeak and MPs can ignore UKIP with impunity. UKIP as a party seems to be an invisible except on displacement activity ( English parliament , MEPs in Pan European party or not, pub campaign) , ... almost an irelevant spectator of events going more or less its way . Despite once having more MEPs than Labour BBC dont invite UKIP on newsnight when economists and EU officials are deliberating EU solutions/problems or the domestic economy is the subject. That fits the concept of a party happy for events to take their course and relieved to disband and support Tories (a la Pearson ) if a referendum is achieved and UK pulls out of the EU. It doesnt fit the concept of a party that has a domestic credibility long term vision."

The problem is EUKIP's laziness. They don't do the research and homework required to rebut and expose LibLabCon lies. Their back up research where it exists is poor quality. Not surprising as the researchers are appointed because of their unquestioning support for Farage and desire for MEP slots rather than talent and ability. This is mirrored in the poor quality and lack of effort of many of their MEPs like William Legge, Bloom, Nuttall etc. They just want to pose and preen before the diminishing EUKIP faithful and like Farage hope for invites on to Newsnight etc. The problem is they are empty barrels and have nothing worthwhile to say so the invites have dried up. They are not interested in the hard graft and grind of politics like setting up a decent web site, keeping it up to date with relevant facts and authoritative opinion.

Are the Hamiltons, the face of Tory sleaze in the 90s, the people to change this? I don't think so but mores the pity obviously some UKIP members do.

I compare them with John Redwood who sends out his email every day to anyone interested. Its well researched, well written and commands respect. Redwood is of course a very able man backed up by able researchers.

Farage and his cabal lack depth of knowledge and ability. They are being exposed as shallow and inconsequential compared to Alex Salmond and his able team. EUKIP has to change and Farage and his cabal have to be got rid of or our leave the EU cause is dead.

What hold does Nigel Farage have on people?

2012-01-20T07:31:00.000-08:00

No ski-ing today as it is snowing heavily so I looked at Junius's blog where he was writing on Nuttall and Greg Beaman. It has always puzzled me how Nigel Farage manages to control some people in UKIP. It is easy to see how he manages it with those who aspire to preferment and want to get on the MEP gravy train. That is the carrot end but there are some to whom this does not apply so he must be using the stick as well.

I do not know Greg Beaman but I have always found his behaviour regarding his 2009 MEP candidacy very puzzling. He spent a long time working to get votes from the North West membership to be on UKIP's MEP slate and came top in the members ballot pushing Nuttall into second place. It is rumoured he then received one or more phone calls from Nigel and having worked so hard for his number one position on the slate he stood down.

Greg Beaman must have had some reasons for his resignation and given it cost him something approaching one million pounds to resign from the EU gravy train they must have been very good ones. It of course left UKIP North West in the hands of Nuttall, a long time Farage associate with results that according to Junius have been dire for UKIP in the region and I would say UKIP over the whole country.

MEP positions are very lucrative as is shown by Yorkshire LibDem Diana Wallis who announced her resignation yesterday. She will be succeeded by her husband Stephen Arnold who was next on the Lib Dem Yorkshire list. That nicely keeps the EU gravy money in the family!

It seems that Mr Arnold was previously Ms Wallis's chief of staff under an EU loophole that allows MEPs elected before June 2009 to employ their close relations. Now guess who else used that loophole to employ his wife? That's right, UKIP's Nigel Farage! When Mottram raised the issue at the famous Nov 2009 NEC that was the answer Farage gave. It certainly maximises the family income from the EU.

The reported reaction of Denis MacShane, former Europe minister to Wallis Arnold was blistering. He said it was unacceptable," by any standards of nepotism".

North West Lib Dem MEP said the decision would leave a bad taste in the mouths of voters and reinforced the "jobs for the boys" image that many people have of MEPs.

A man is known by the company he keeps.

SNP shows UKIP how its done

2012-01-12T02:20:00.000-08:00

The SNP is like UKIP opposed in its main policy aim by every other UK national political and the UK national media including the BBC yet the SNP is making real progress to its aspiration of Scottish independence and UKIP is no nearer getting us out of the EU than when it was founded 20 years ago, indeed we are probably now more embedded in the EU than we were in 1992. UKIP in its current EUKIP incarnation is like Italy and its army going backwards.

The reasons why the SNP is succeeding and UKIP failing are instructive and obvious. Firstly they have campaigned and fought in their own country a sine qua non for any nationalist party serious about its independence aims. The SNP leader, Alec Salmond , resigned his Westminster seat to return to Scotland to further the SNP cause. EUKIP's leadership spend most of their working time in Brussels working for the EU! They are EU kept men and women but only in Andreasen's case..

Alex S has built up a talented leadership team who can hold their own with other parties and the media. Appearances on high profile TV political shows are shared among the SNP leadership who as a result are now "well ken't faces" North and South of the border. EUKIP is simply a Nigel Farage cult. All high profile media appearances are reserved for Nigel to further his real ambition to become a TV chat show host.

In EUKIP anyone else who might rival Farage in any way is discredited and eventually leaves UKIP. This of course has created a huge number of dissidents characterised by those seeking preferment from Farage as malcontents. There is by now a whole army of people so smeared to the extent UKIP ex-members now outnumber EUKIP members! Its difficult to win a war if your army keeps shrinking. Alec's army on the other hand keeps growing.

The SNP has a solid long term experienced membership who are in the SNP for their cause and put money into the SNP not like many in EUKIP who are there in eager anticipation of receiving the EU's 30 Euros. There are no SNP 18 year old mayoral candidates still doing their A levels.

Note also the complete lack of Lords a'leaping in the SNP whereas EUKIP is stuffed full of broken down old aristos who live in grand houses and on grouse moors and have no idea how the ordinary people live. These aristos are in EUKIP to gratify their huge ego and vanity or as one once said to me to give him a 'platform for his views'. The problem is his views are irrelevant to the ordinary voters of the UK and not worth listening to.

There are of course no redundant old Tories with lots of baggage in the SNP. EUKIP has just saddled itself with the Hamilton's who did so much to undermine John Major's administration to add to Gill, Pearson, Monckton etc. What a collection! Alec prefers people like himself who have done real jobs and have solid talent and experience and no political baggage.

Finally read Peter Oborne and Alan Cochrane's pieces in today's DT for an unbiased assessment of Alec's talents and abilities. "Where he excels is with the broadcast media. A consummate TV performer especially with most London-based presenters." Indeed, he reminds me very much of Denis Healey in his pomp. No TV or radio interviewer ever laid a glove on him. Their questions just slipped of his brilliance and ended up in a little heap at the interviwer's feet.

But most of all Alec believes in the SNP cause and would die for it as William Wallace did. Farage on the other hand only believes in Nigel Farage.

PS I recently registered to comment on the Wall Street Journal articles. They will not accept comments from anonymous sources and demand your proper name and address before they will publish your comments. An excellent policy!

It would do a good deal to clean up EUKIP and elicit the truth if this rule were enforced by Anthony Butcher on his Democracy Forum where libellous anonymous postings proliferate and spread.

Our political class unite to defend the Union, can Barroso and his chums not do the same?

2012-01-11T11:16:00.000-08:00

If there is one thing worse than the Boy and Millipede disagreeing it is the Boy and Millipede agreeing to gang up to bash Alex Salmond and his SNP. It reminds me of the old Bernard Manning politically incorrect joke that we should all love each other and then agree to go out and bash the Pakis.

The next group to gang up on a minority will be the EU political elite on the UK Eurosceptics. Barroso, Rumpy and Frumpy will justify anything they do as preserving the Union. When you agree to gang up and kick someone you have to remember you might be the football one day. I would have expected the Boy to have learned that at Slough comp. (A comp as it admits the less able pupil like the British royals.)

This one will run and run. Alex is a consummate politician and the Boy a mere amateur who loses out to French dwarfs, a bit like England's rugby team. I am going to enjoy this!

Scottish nationalism and referendum and EU referendum and English nationalism

2012-01-10T06:59:00.000-08:00

I am puzzled at the boy wading into this one up to his neck. I can only quote from his DT house journal leader today.

"It is true that Mr Cameron is interfering but he is entitled to do so"

" Mr Salmond by contrast is being characteristically manipulative and scheming in his approach"

Two facts seem to have escaped the DT public schoolboy scribblers.

Alex Salmond won an overall majority in the last election on the basis of the SNP manifesto giving his government complete democratic legitimacy. Cameron did not win the election and governs on a rag bag of policies most of which were never put to the electorate.

The SNP manifsto was quite unambiguous that it would hold a referendum in the second half of its term. Exactly what they propose to do!

Cameron is trying to do a Sarkozy and replace democratically endorsed policies by bureaucratic dictat. He best be very careful because the EU will be quick to refer to his undemocratic actions when and if an EU referendum is called in the UK.

I am baffled by Cameron's stupidity. As a Scot I have been frequently accused of sponging and worse on the hard working virtuous English. The sort of statements that had I a deep and dark sun tan would have enabled me to take these English patriots to court and win.

Without Scottish Labour votes and seats the Tories are guaranteed a perpetual majority in England. They should be supporting Alex for all their worth especially if the spongers argument holds true they would be ridding the English taxpayers of a huge financial burden. This may be lost on the boy but its certainly fuelling a huge, and I would say justified. tide of English nationalism to say nothing of the West Lothian question.

On the Labour side the opposite holds true. They need Scottish seats to form a UK government. For that reason they will fight tooth and nail to scupper Alex. Its sordid party political interest that drives that side of the argument. The Tories only hold one seat in Scotland, abit like in Liverpool. So its Old Etonian arrogance and stupidity versus Labour party interests.

And what about the LibDems? They will side with Labour for the same reasons. The current Scottish Secretary is a Lib Dem. Many like me will remember that before the LibDems and the gang of four there was a Liberal party that had around four MPs for many years with about half coming from Scotland. In the coming LibDem meltdown they will want to preserve their Scottish base!

And what of Alex? He is for my money the ablest political operator current in the UK mainly in comparison with such incompetents as Boy Dave, Millipede, Wee George and Cleggon. Alex will do nowt. He just has to sit there by the side of the Spey and the bodies of his enemies will drift pass one by one. The Tories will still be firmly attached to their salmon rods and Labour to their cloth caps.

Tourettes & Farage's EUKIP

2012-01-09T08:37:00.000-08:00

I was mildly amused to watch how quickly the boy Dave moved to retract and apologise for his Tourette.s jibe against Ed Balls. I faced a similar accusation from EUKIP's sometime lawyer Zuckerman at a NEC meeting. It was a lie as I do not nor ever have suffered from Tourette's syndrome. I have never received an apology from Zuckerman or his then boss Farage.

It is of course deeply hurting to those who do suffer from Tourettes to have their condition used as a term of abuse and insult by the likes of Cameron and Zuckerman.

Serious politicians like Cameron know when to apologise and even Milliband knew when to order Dianne Abbott to apologise to those she insulted. Farage has shown himself not to be a serious politician ie one the public will treat seriously. Worse, the great British public will never treat EUKIP as a serious political party whilst he leads it.

Political interference generates death of final salary pension scheme

2012-01-06T03:14:00.000-08:00

Shell announced yesterday it was shortly to withdraw its final salary pension scheme for new entrants. It was the last FTSE company offering such a scheme to new entrants so now there are none as Diane Abbott might say.

This process started just a few days after the May 97 glorious revolution and coronation of our sun king Tony when the new chancellor Gordon and Ed etc were seeking a quick obscure source of funds for their crackpot schemes where the pigeons would not come home to roost for many years. This is a characteristic of our sordid politicians that I first met as a junior civil servant when at a meeting a minister declared that he was "not interested in solving the next government's problems". Reading between the lines the more problems that could be left to, or even created for, the next government the better was the message as Liam Byrne articulated when leaving office in 2010.

So Gord and Ed came up with taking tax breaks away from pension schemes to fund their payroll vote buying activities. These tax breaks were put there of course to encourage companies and employees to provide their own pensions! But who cared while the sun shone out of Tony's rear parts.

A few years previously a former Labour MP one Cap'n Bob Maxwell had perpetrated a gigantic fraud on the Mirror Group pension scheme which he treated as 'his' money. He could not have done this without the compliance of the pension scheme directors who were terrified of him. When this story broke the politicians reacted in the usual way with more rules and regulation culminating in the MFR or Minimum Funding Requirement legislation which whilst well intended had the unfortunate consequence of bankrupting many pension schemes. But who cares? The politicos had acted decisively to produce yet another pensions cock up.

That was when I first met Ros Altman. The effect of the MFR was to force pension schemes in trouble to invest in index linked government gilts whose price went up and yield went down as did the scheme members pensions! Worse if the scheme went belly up, usually because the company went bankrupt, existing pensioners were protected totally by putting the fund into indexed gilts. Who paid? Well those who were not yet drawing a pension ended up with virtually nothing. So if you retired the day before the bust you got what you had paid for and if you retired the day after you got zilch.

Another glorious page in the annals of liberal socialist cock ups. Your pension scheme might have survived one political 'solution' but two was one too many!

Panicked by the public response to this multiple cock our MPs rushed to feather their own nests in the usual way and with Cock Robin Cook in charge voted themselves a diamond encrusted gold plated pension which only needed 20 years arduous service fiddling their expenses to get in full. Poor Mr Cock did not live long enough to collect his succumbing to the Scottish disease at an early age. Too many deep fat fried Mars bars I opine.

The problem as with the banks later was not lack of regulation it was failure to enforce existing rules. The principal culprits are the so called independent non-executive directors who are all recruited from Three Wise Monkeys college in Slough. These like our useless House of Lords were all men and women of sound judgement and great experience of saying nothing, doing nothing and seeing nothing.

I do hope the unions get their act together and get workers representatives on the boards of companies and pension schemes and curb excessive executive pay and bonuses as well.

Meanwhile back in Euroland don't listen to the rhetoric, just watch the bond market. Italian 10 year yields are now at 7.21% as I write!

Hungary faces default

2012-01-05T02:26:00.000-08:00

Hungary has been angling to get into the Euro for almost 10 years. It was the first country to suffer from Prussian directives on how to structure its central bank to fit in with the Maastricht Treaty. The then Prussian dominated ECB demanded the bank president's term should be doubled to 8 years and required similar safeguards regarding the bank's vice presidents. The Hungarians did not like it but had to say Ja Wohl.

Pigeons come home to roost and today's DT business reports the cancellation of a Hungarian bond swap auction, presumably aimed at lengthening the maturity profile of their debt, because there would be no takers. The new Hungarian prime minister has just passed laws giving him the right to appoint all the bank vice presidents plus other powers over their MPC members. This is of course anathema to the ECB but the Hungarians badly need an IMF loan as well as an EU refinancing agreement hence the new law.

I find it vastly amusing as these Hungarian proposals are little different from the UK where the PM appoints the two BoE deputy governors as well as the governor and the four outside members of the MPC. The UK Europhiles led by my neighbour Lord Pantsdown et al, assume we would be welcomed with open arms into the Euro. Not so! The first thing the ECB would demand is a reform of the BoE! So much for the vaunted expertise of the House of Lords. On monetary policy they know Jack Shit and it would be better for us all if these unelected placemen kept their gobs shut on these things they patently don't understand.

The EU must feel like the little Dutch boy running around putting their fingers in the holes in the dyke. First Greece, then Portugal, then Italy and Spain and now Hungary. Then the Spanish come back for another 50 bn€ for their banks. How long before the EU run out of fingers?

Eurofanatics are like the Inquisition

2012-01-04T03:30:00.000-08:00

This is the gist of an excellent piece by Bruce Anderson in today's DT entitled 'Eurofanatics should join Marxists n the dustbin of history'. Its well worth a read . He compares the plight of Greece to that of Liverpool around 1980 when they could not compete with the South East and London and had to receive a huge bail out. Does he not realise he is writing about Deputy Fuerher Nutall's bailiwick.

Anderson points out how intellectually very able people have throughout history performed contortions to deny fact that does not suit their theory. Papal infallibility, flat earth heliocentric solar system denial etc.

He includes a brilliant quote that we " should allways be afraid of people in possession of what they know to be the truth. They will do anything to see that the facts are changed and whipped into shape to agree with it " - ie their perception of the truth.

Meanwhile back at the ECB the Italian in charge has installed a Belgian as ECB chief economist to replace the hard line Kraut who resigned in protest against money printing. Who are the two most indebted countries in the EU? Why Italy and Belgium now Greece is a basket case. Crank up the ECB printing presses. They are going to be needed big time.

Mean while in the ECB

This is how the Fuerher does a Eurozone rant Nigel

2012-01-02T07:11:00.001-08:00

Click on Fuerher

to enjoy the real Fuerher showing Nigel how it should be done. See how many of the cabal you can pick out in the supporting cast. They are all there!

Queen knights bureaucrat for services to the EU

2012-01-02T04:09:00.000-08:00

I always get into trouble for saying Betty von Battenberg, to give her her name following standard nomenclature conventions , is probably a decent old stick but cares more about her dogs and horses than she does about our poor benighted country. This always upsets the many who think the Queen is wonderful and omnipotent in the UK. She is neither. She is a constitutional monarch whose only function is to deny the position of head of state to slime ball politicians, a good thing, but a function my granny could perform equally well. As such a monarch she has to sign anything the boy puts in front of her. The last monarch to refuse ended up without his head a fate Mrs von Battenberg wishes to avoid.

Thus it is that in her New Year honours list, Order of St Michael and St George under KCMG we read the name Dr Michael Leigh, former Brussels bureaucrat. His citation is "for services to the enlargement of the European Union". I call upon UKIP's many monarchists to write to Betty asking her not to knight this man who has been working for the dissolution of her realm which also happens to be our country.

Meanwhile, back from an unsuccessful ski trip after a hair raising journey through thick snow and avalanches I find the newspaper headlines not dealing with the Eurozone collapse but the successful recovery of Mr von Battenberg from a potentially fatal blocked coronary artery shown by his attendance yesterday at his wife's local church. I am glad he has recovered and hope the boy will soon be introducing a free NHS helicopter service to Papworth cardiology department for the ordinary taxpayers of the UK.

The boy, to keep the electorate happy, is going to follow a circuses only policy this year. The bread bit has been dropped because of coalition cuts. These cuts will not of course apply to MPs, MEPs, members of the royal family etc but will apply to the little people, the poor and huddled masses yearning for a crust..

What is least worst place to put your dosh?

2011-12-23T06:21:00.000-08:00

The answer dear reader is with George Osborne. Now that tells you how bad things really are. I recommended National Savings Index linked certificates about 2 years ago and was taken to task by one of Yeovil UKIP's stalwarts, Michael Canton. Ah Michael I bet you wish you had taken my advice then. Mrs Edmond did and she is now richer than me.

The big boys don't know what to do with their dosh either. The central banks keep printing it, rates keep falling, Gilts now yield 2%! Incredible.Right now its about preserving your dosh so give up any hope of making a real return on your money. If you can just hold onto it you are doing well.

Anyway I am off ski-ing in 15 hours. I may as well spend it now. If I can connect to internet I will try and post from my Alp.

Send nuclear sub to Falklands says former first sea lord

2011-12-22T12:38:00.000-08:00

I was delighted to read in today's DT Lord West, former ruler of the Queen's navy, advocating sending a nuclear sub to the Falklands in response to the Argies latest sabre rattling. I recommended this action 12 days ago so I feel vindicated.

I picked this up as the certain response to the anti-British propaganda from the BBC on the lines of Britain friendless and isolated in the world as a result of Cameron using the veto in Brussels. The BBC has a lot to answer for. It is institutionally anti-UK and succours and encourages our enemies.

Remember the last Falkand's conflict was triggered by the FCO, the other great anti-UK government institution, withdrawing the one British vessel patrolling off the Falklands and tipping General Galtieri the wink that the UK would not act if he invaded the Falklands. How many lives did that cost?

At least Carrington the Foreign Secretary resigned over the FCO huge mistake but so far no one from the BBC has even hinted they are 'considering' their position. Cameron should be considering it for these overpaid traitors. They do huge damage to our country.

I watch Russia Today and find it gives a more balanced and pro British line than our Brussels Broadcasting Corporation. This evening it ran a twenty minute interview with Dan Hannan where the interviewer asked a question and shut up while Hannan answered and then went on to the next question. A pleasant chnge from the BBC technique of not allowing the interviewee to answer if they are not giving the answer the BBC want. They have the gall to talk incessantly of their high professional standard of journalism, bollocks I say!

Hannan was excellent. He answered the questions fully and concisely in a pleasant educated style that clearly was winning adherents to the Eurosceptic cause. He is clearly the man to get behind to get us out EU control.

ECB lends 489bn€ to banks at 1% for 3 years

2011-12-21T04:11:00.000-08:00

It was big bazooka time in Frankfurt this morning. The ECB met huge demand for its 3 year cheap money all 'secured' on some dodgy collateral. The Eurocrats are hoping the banks will rush out and buy PIGS sovereign debt yielding 5% plus tempted by the huge profit this carry trade offers if the sovereign repays in 3 years time!

So this carry trade involves taking on a lot of risk something banks have been keen to reduce recently. Merkel's whizzo haircut threats does not help sentiment either. The banks may therefore choose to use their new found Euros to repay their existing debt when it falls due and shrink their balance sheet.

The market reaction, raising the rate on Italian bonds by around 10 bps after the announcement today indicates the latter is what the markets think banks will do. We will have to wait and see as this latter move would also signal a bank in trouble.

Spain borrowing costs dive, ECB loans seen at work

2011-12-20T07:49:00.000-08:00

Thus reads Reuters head line today reporting a 'successful' Spanish bill auction with 6 month paper going at 2.435% compared with 5.227% last month and 3 month bills going at 1.735% compared with 5.11% last month. This is all new ECB money at work. Draghi cannot admit to it publicly for fear of the Gestapo but the ECB is buying up Eurozone dodgy debt in size with newly minted money.

Their strategy seems to be to buy just enough toilet paper to keep the PIGS in the market but keep the pressure on the dodgy politicians to push through the much needed tax and spending reforms. Its a nice trick if you can manage it but the markets view is more clear in the Italian 10 year rate of 6.62%, down about 0.5% from its recent high but still in bail out territory. Once the IMF etc have seen the books the truth and the worms will out.

I was going to write about the nauseating letter of self interest supporting the EU in today's DT but this has been adequately dealt with by Richard North in his EU referendum blog. One of the signatories Leon Brittan is still on the EU payroll via his Commissioner's pension. These signatories are all people who worship globalisation and have no concern for the ordinary working people of the UK. But as Richard writes, we are going to see a lot more of this in the next 6 months.

Where is Farage's EUKIP rebuttal?

Mission impossible - save the euro

2011-12-19T04:45:00.001-08:00

There is only one way to save the Euro, Germany must leave! This would rebalance the whole EU economy at a stroke as E Heath used to say. It requires political courage and leadership so far conspicuous by its absence and would have to be done quickly and secretly. I can do no better than quote that famous Scotsman MacBeth from the eponymous play.

If it were done when ’tis done, then ’twere well
It were done quickly. If the assassination
Could trammel up the consequence, and catch,
With his surcease, success; that but this blow
Might be the be-all and the end-all here,
But here, upon this bank and shoal of time,
We’d jump the life to come. But in these cases
We still have judgement here, that we but teach
Bloody instructions, which being taught return
To plague the inventor.

The Euro is certainly stuck on the bank and shoal of time with a strong wind from the markets pushing it further on. Ships in that position invariably break up and sink and that will be the Euro's inevitable fate if it does not lighten ship and jettison Germany.

The political elite, Monet's successors, will never allow that to happen. They will ensure the ship goes down with all hands except the EU commission who will be in their escape pod to Switzerland and their stash of loot.

Roger Bootle has an excellent piece in today's DT business on this topic a propos the UK.

"The UK policy establishment is still in the grip of three serious economic delusions which appear to dictate continued membership of the EU: top table syndrome, sizism and proximity fetishism."

The first means only politicians and their hangers on benrfit from the EU.

Second flies in the face of economic facts. The countries with the wealthiest ordinary people are small countries with small government and no political elite eg Switzerland, Norway and Singapore. Bootle discusses the reasons for this.

The third proximity argument may have had some credibility in 1950 but the world has changed dramatically since then What does globalisation mean but that we now trade with the whole world so why as Bootle argues should we be hamstrung by EU regulation when trading within the UK or without the EU!

Sarkozy's problem is not with us but with Germany. It is becoming increasingly obvious to all in the world that France is just a pimple on Germany's bum. Until the French face up to this unpalatable truth we will suffer more unjustified irrelevant attacks from the poison dwarf.

When the Franco Prussian politicians admit the truth in this matter the EU is finished, the Fourth Reich is born and we return to the thirties thanks to the EU. Already right wing neo-nazi parties are growing thanks to the EU Euro fanatics pushing more and more the people of Europe into unemployment.

EUKIP as presently constituted is one of these parties. Alan Sked warned against it but as AEP notes EUKIP is now seen as a bunch of swivel eyed right wing loons.

EUKIP needed to recruit across the whole left right spectrum to succeed electorally. In stead it is just a dumping ground for failed Tories with huge political baggage like Neil Hamilton. You only have to look at Butcher's forum to see what is happening.

As Jeff Randall writes today the euro turkey is well and truly stuffed bit what comes next?

UKIP save deposit in Feltham & Heston

2011-12-16T02:44:00.000-08:00

I woke this morning to the unmistakable tones of Farage on the radio so I knew UKIP must have had an OK result in Fetham an Heston. The full results were:

Seema Malhotra, Labour - 12,639 (54.42%, +10.79%)
Mark Bowen, Conservative - 6,436 (27.71%, -6.32%)
Roger Crouch, Liberal Democrats - 1,364 (5.87%, -7.87%)
Andrew Charalambous, UKIP - 1,276 (5.49%, +3.45%)
David Furness, BNP - 540 (2.33%, -1.21%)
Daniel Goldsmith, Green - 426 (1.83%, +0.74%)
Roger Cooper, English Democrats - 322 (1.39%)
George Hallam, London People Before Profit - 128 (0.55%)
David Bishop, Bus-Pass Elvis Party - 93 (0.40%)

It was a very low turnout of 28.8%, not unexpected on a cold night, in a safe Labour seat and a week before Xmas.

I agree with Farage that it was frustrating to get so close to the LibDems and just not quite manage to push them into 4th place.

I am sure the candidate worked very hard. The UKIP supporters I saw on TV all seemed a bit juvenile but as always it is the dogs that did not bark and were invisible I am concerned about.

Where was Marta Andreasen elected UKIP MEP for the Southern region? Where was Gerard Batten UKIP's London MEP? Where was Paul Nuttall UKIP's deputy leader and MEP? Please post answers on the comments section of this blog. I would love to have my suspicions disproved.

By-elections give small parties a heaven sent opportunity to raise their profile with the great British public. Its how the LibDems started off. I am old enough to remember Lubbock for the LibDems overturning a huge Tory majority in Orpington. It can be done and its one of the the few avenues open to minority parties but it takes a lot of effort and it has to start at the top of the party. UKIP's problem is many of its MEPs are there for the money not the cause. They want support but they don't want to give support.

Its campaigning on cold dark winter nights that tell you who is committed to our cause and who are there for the high life in Brussels and being feted in TV studios surrounded by a bevy of make up girls. UKIP had people who were great campaigners in all weather and all seasons, Alan Wood, Steve Allison, Mike Bridgeman and many others but all of whom are now no longer in UKIP. Too many chiefs, not enough Indians, too many sycophants is UKIP's story now.

I applaud the candidate and Mr Farage. They have both I feel been let down by our MEPs. Farage is of course culpable as he approved these people as candidates and worse ensured other excellent people like Robin Page who would have been excellent MEPs were not put on the UKIP slate but Bannerman and Agnew were. That is the crucial weakness that makes Mr Farage a poor leader. He is like Cameron a good PR man. Cameron however is surrounded by good able people, most chosen by their local constituency parties, who can cover up his lack of depth and knowledge. Nigel Farage got rid of such people at the top of UKIP for self serving sycophants of little ability. This has been the downfall of many leaders. I just hope Farage does not take UKIP with him when he falls.

Spain is now a better credit than Italy

2011-12-15T09:55:00.000-08:00

Last night I strayed onto the Russia Today channel by mistake and guess who was on? Nigel Farage and it was one of his better efforts. Is he now a friend of Putin as well? I suggest some enthusiastic supporter finds a Youtube link for this interview as it shows the Fuerher at his best.

Spain had a solid result at today's bond auction with the 10 year part of their offering, 1.4 bn€ going at 5.545% compared with 6.975% in November. The market seems more impressed with the democratic Spanish government than the Eurocrat Italian one. Six months ago Italy was the better credit but tonight its 10 year bond closed at 7%.

On the back of this result and some well received steady Eurozone inflation figures equity markets perked up as did the Euro, slightly. The Greeks are making a start on tax collection with an estimated 45bn€ annual tax being evaded. Only 19% of such debts are deemed recoverable. "Politicians have made us tax evaders. Why should we follow the law when they are stealing? Let the politicians and the rich lead the way." is the quote from one Greek. Its the same in the UK.

In France Sarkozy and his chums are getting exercised about the threatened downgrade by the hated Anglo Saxon ratings agency . Former president Chirac has just received a two year suspended jail sentence for corruption. Its the French way.

Peter Oborne in today's DT points out our elected MPs are busy smearing and abusing their expenses watchdog. Things seem to be getting back to normal! I was amused to see the Daily Mail recommending Cast Iron should send one his dysfunctional family trouble shooters to family Sarkozy, Paris, France.

I was saddened to read of the death of Graham Booth. We had our differences but I never doubted his commitment to our cause.

No treaty means no referendum means another UKIP damaging Farage rant

2011-12-14T09:21:00.000-08:00

The cosy relationship between Farage and the Tories has been playing out over the last few days. Rather than attacking the EU actions Farage of course cannot resist a cheap ad hominem attack on Rumpy, Barroso etc. Its on Youtube for the whole world to see the EU elite and elected MEPs laughing at EUKIP's leader. He is certainly doing everything he can to endorse Cameron's fruit cakes and loonies description of EUKIP. His rants damages no one but EUKIP and helps Cameron's Tories no end. Farage knows this. It just makes him look nasty and stupid. So why does he carry on doing it? The chance of bum on red leather I opine and a chance to participate in the BBC's nightly fandango of three lords a leaping, usually Ashdown plus two other Lords of the BBC's dance.

Several commentators have pointed out how Sarkoy's little plan enabled Cameron to go back waving his fictitious non veto and crying no referendum in our time. Sarky will gain electorally in France for kicking the rosbifs. Always a vote winner in France. Cameron's real problems lie on the home front and keeping Sam Cam in her recently refurbished Downing Street kitchen. Its a wonderful piece of political chicanery. He can now walk tall as Clegg says with the Tory backbenchers with the Lib Dems booing and hissing him like a panto villain. That's exactly what the whole show is, a Xmas pantomime with as little relation to reality as Dick Whittington. Turn again Cleggon Lord Mayor of Brussels town say the bells of Old Bailey and Clegg will certainly do that after a suitable spell in sulking to impress his grass roots. Ah British politics is indeed fortunate to have found two such consummate actors to replace Tony, a thespian par excellence to whose performing expertise all wannabe UK politicians aspire.

The financial marketeers however do not go to pantomimes. Pole dancing clubs are more their line. These rude menials pay no attention to the honeyed words and crocodile tears of our politicians.They are philistines who do not appreciate the beauty and weaving movements of the political dance. None of them would every appear on Strictly like Widdy or Curry! They are baser mortals whose only saving grace is to make money for themselves and if that fails help themselves like politicians try to do, to the money of others. What really annoys our political elite is these crude, rude people are far more successful at robbing the populace than our political elite and unlike our MPs don't get caught. Now how can that be? Only one explanation is possible, they must be smarter than the politicians but as Napoleon Bonoparte pointed out that's not too difficult.

Even as I write the Merkozy deal is unravelling politically. The FT today prints a story picked up by Richard North that several countries, Hungary, Sweden, Denmark, Ireland see problems getting it through their national parliaments. The most damaging comment comes from the Czech PM, 'Right now there
is not much more than a blank sheet of paper and even the name of the future treaty might change. I think it would be politically short-sighted to come out with strong statements thatr we should sign that piece of paper.'
Possibly Dave no pals might have some pals soon.

On the finance front today's DT business, AEP et al, run a story entitled 'Euro rescue may cost UK extra £30 bn. This seems to be confirmed by an IMF statement which is €50 bn different from the Merkozy Euroean Council statement to our detriment.

Today's Ipsos Mori poll has Tories at 41%, Labour 39%, Lib Dems 11%. That leaves 9% to be share beteeen the SNP, Plaid, Greens BNP and UKIP. Its not a great result for rant ng Nigel.

Reuters today reports, Italy paid a euro era record yield of 6.47 percent to sell five-year paper at its first auction of longer-term debt after the EU moved towards greater fiscal integration at last week's summit, but failed to convince markets it can solve the debt crisis.

The average yield at Wednesday's sale compares with an auction rate of 6.29 percent Italy paid a month ago, which was also a euro lifetime record high.

Rome sold 3 billion euros (2.5 billion pounds) of the September 2016 BTP

The difference between a 10 year bond yield and a 5 year bond rate depends on the slope of the yield curve This auction has pushed up the 10 year rate to 7.17% this morning. Investors will be getting very nervous and there is a huge amount of Italian bond out there to be nervous about.

Thus today's German auction of 2 year bonds went at 0.29% compared with 0.39% at the last two year auction. Put the two results together and the conclusion is investors will pay up for safety. They are scared.

In the UK unemployment has hit a 17 year high in October. Thos Cook is shutting 200 of its 1300 branches. I wonder what Millipede will go on today at PMQs, an embarass du choix as Sarky might say.

I break here to listen to PMQs. Will there be any PM answers? I doubt it.

Cast iron fairly trounced Millipede at PMQs so Labour may be looking for a new leader sooner than expected. I see the Mail is reporting serious unrest in the LibDem ranks over Clegg's terrible performance over the last few days. Huhne the heir apparent is putting the boot in. Evrerything is not quite rosy for the boy however as it seems some Euroseptics may put a motion calling for a referendum. Better make that a vote of confidence Dave. Heads you win and Tails you win.

Farage's EUKIP , a me too party

2011-12-13T08:07:00.000-08:00

After I wrote yesterdays blog I switched on the C4 news to find some members of the Farage Youth being interviewed on the streets of Feltham allegedly campaigning for UKIP's candidate standing in Thursday's by-election there. They seemed keen to repeat the Labour LibDem line that Cameron had isolated us in Europe lost our voice at the top table etc. Indeed they might as well have been the young LibDems or Labour youth except they are now all on the opposition front bench with Hettie.

So I picked up a few of their Furher's utterances on the same subject and lo and behold he was parroting the Lib Dem Labour isolation line as well. So what is EUKIP for if all it can do is repeat the LibDemLab slogans|? When the prime minister of our country is under attack from the EU outside the country and fifth column Brussels Broadcasting Corporation inside the UK all Farage can do is join the BBC line.

The youth wing at least know that to get on the EU gravy train and be as wealthy as Nigel its best to say Ja Wohl mein Gruppenfuerher. Thinking is not encouraged in EUKIP. Blind obedience to the leader is all that is required as it was in a former, but now disbanded thank God, youth organisation.

Where are the other members of the Cabal? They seem to keeping a very low profile or is Nigel as usual hogging all the TV spots!

It was good fun to watch Paxo on Newsnight yesterday making mincemeat of our neighbour Pantsdown. Is he the best the LibDems can find to put up to defend the cowardly Clegg? Paxo was in his best brassed off with another lying politician mode. Pants down is the most pompous man I know. He embodies the political elite. He persistently denigrates all who dare disagree with his EU fantasies. They are people as well you know Paddy entitled to their views and what is more they might just be right!

The BBC are doing their best to undermine our country in the eyes of the world. There are many mentally challenged US politicians who believe what they say. I do hope Obama realises the real threat to world stability an EU empire under Prussian leadership would pose. Sarkozy believes his United States of Europe will be superior to the US. He is a dangerous man, more so when he is behind in the polls.

Meanwhile on the markets yields on Italian and Spanish bonds continue to rise, the Euro continues to fall - good news for those of us going ski-ing. Things are not going to plan. Dr Frau Merkel's solution? Let us have a another summit before Xmas.

Farage's too, too cosy relationship with the BBC. Why?

2011-12-12T09:56:00.000-08:00

It was wall to wall Farage on the BBC over the weekend culminating in his appearance on the LibDem Andrew Marr show on Sunday. The BBC/Lib Dem propaganda lie of Britain now being isolated in Europe was peddled assiduously on the BBC worldwide to the huge detriment of our country. Why did Farage not challenge this patent lie? France and Germany have both put out statements today saying their relations with the UK are intact.

Its the same with the oft repeated claim that 3 million British jobs depend on our EU membership. Farage never asks the basis for this propaganda. Why not?

The answer is Farage and the BBC have a nauseating symbiotic relationship. Farage is free to do his usual monkey on a stick, grandstanding rant on the condition he does not tackle anything that could seriously damage the EU such as addressing the questions above. Nigel Farage is the BBC's Eurosceptic tame poodle. Nigel Farage is not a serious politician. He prefers the cheap shot to the hard work of serious argument. Poor EUKIP to saddle themselves with such a shallow leader.

As I write Cameron is giving a virtuoso performance in the Commons answering over 100 backbench questions on his EU treaty veto statement. Clegg was no where to be seen! A man who talks about walking tall in Europe! A typical slimy Lib Dem tactic!. It was gratifying to see some Labour MPs, Kate Hooey, Graham Stringer, Frank Field etc supporting the PM. Its a pity the BBC cannot do likewise. Millipede's lack of any alternative policy was cruelly exposed.

On the markets the Italian managed to get a one year bond away at 5.95%. Their 10 year bond rate closed at 7.11%, bail out territory again. Compare this with the slightly negative rate on a 3 month Dutch bill. This shows the markets are seeking safety and have doubts about the security of their money in Euroland banks.

Equity markets worldwide are down about 2 %. For us the BBC is now as big a problem as the EU.

Lessons from our colonial days on how to handle Merkozy

2011-12-11T09:55:00.000-08:00

After McMillan made his wind of change in Africa speech in 1957 there was a huge increase in the justified movements for independence. These all followed a pattern of unity until the Brits left and then reversion to tribal boundaries and blood letting. The only thing uniting these movements was a desire to be rid of the Brits. Thus it is in Europe and now the Brits have been excluded from the club and are no longer there to be kicked the mid Europeans will revert to squabbling amongst themselves.

The lesson for Cameron is to do as little as possible ie keep on blocking any attempt to extend EU powers in the UK and wait. Sarkozy will of course blame every setback on the UK and the other Anglo Saxons but all Cameron has to do is smile sweetly and give them his calm down dear line. Doing nowt is the hardest thing to do in politics but it is on this occasion the best policy. The markets will sort out Sarkozy very rapidly.

Terry Smith put it very well , "All the UK is isolated from is an impending disaster; the eurozone will fragment with countries leaving and debt defaults. Its like being as isolated as the man who failed to get on the Titanic before it sailed".

The new . "solution" proposed by Merkozy is identical to the failed stability and growth pact enshrine in the Maastricht treaty. The markets have already sussed this so there will be more grief for Merkozy tomorrow.

Liam Halligan has a good piece in today's Sunday Telegraph. He castigates the 'breakthrough' of round tripping via the IMF to avoid national laws against funding bail outs as "deeply immoral". Sums up the EU. The ECB are at it too taking dodgy collateral and extending repo refinancing secured on such collateral to 3 years!

Merkozy will be held to account in the world's financial markets and in blood on the streets of Eurozone capitals. Already democratic obstacles are emerging to the Franco Prussian plans in Ireland, Holland, Denmark and Austria. Perhaps we will soon see these democratic countries governments replaced by EU bureaucrats. If not the UK may find itself some company sooner than the EU philes think.

A military angle in Europe and the Falklands

2011-12-10T10:21:00.000-08:00

The Argies have been kicking up recently about their claims to the Falklands. The decision by the Coalition to scrap our two serving carriers on the assumption we could borrow one from the French now looks very imprudent. The Argies will have noted the falling out of Cameron and the wannabe Napoleon Sarkozy will not have gone unnoticed in Buenos Aries by the Argies. The British Embassy will of course believe whatever the Argies tell them up to the invasion.

It would be wise to reinforce the Falkland garrison asap and strengthen the RAF presence and anti-aircraft missile defence there also. It is now very unwise to station Wills there. We should also ensure there is always at least one hunter killer British nuclear sub in the area and make sure the Argies no this. All the pro EU propaganda from the BBC will simply encourage the belief in Argentina that Britain is weak and isolated. Best to declare a 150 mile no Argie ships cordon round the Islands now and avoid trouble.

It was also good to see the US military head General Martin Dempsey saying he is concerned about, 'the potential for civil unrest' as Europe's financial crisis unfolds. He went on to say it was unclear the latest steps taken by EU leaders would be enough to hold the Eurozone together adding that a break up would have consequences for the Pentagon.

Wise words! The fatuous claims by the EU that it has kept the peace in Europe are simply lies and propaganda to suit their book. It is the US and NATO that has kept the peace in Europe since 1945, Sarkozy's French pathological hatred of the Anglo Saxons blinds him to this obvious truth is very dangerous for all the peoples of Europe. The recent Merkozy orchestrated regime change in Greece and Italy has created a fertile breeding ground for political agitators to work in. Merkel and Sarkozy are making the same mistakes as Napoleon and Hitler.

Cast iron Dave plays a solid game

2011-12-09T11:02:00.000-08:00

Continuing my cricket metaphor Dave put up a good rearguard action yesterday. It reminded me of a Boycott Atherton batting display, boring but immensely valuable for the side. The value of Dave's performance will only come to be realised in the coming months. I thought the BBC's coverage was unbelievably biased toward the EU. Cameron is our PM and deserves the support of our national broadcaster against EU lies and propaganda. The sooner the BBC is privatised the better.

I was appalled to hear the BBC report the outcome described as being well received by the bond market. Its a lie! Tonight Italian 10 year bonds closed at 6.83%, Greek at 32.62%, Portugal at 13.16% all in bail out territory! French bonds were over 1% more expensive than UK gilts. The BBC reporters are obviously totally innumerate.

The idea that there are now 26 countries solidly against the EU is laughable. All Merkozy has done is reiterate the previous growth and stability pact that was breeched in 2005 by France and Germany! They propose fines now for those that breech the rules. There is a saying in Scotland, 'Ye cannae tak the breeks of a Hieland man'. Or to put it in English how do you get money out of bankrupt countries. Surcharge their political elite is the only acceptable possibility but that's against the rules of our poltical rulers.

As with previous summit outcomes the proposals such as they are will fall apart under market scrutiny in next few weeks. Also the 26 will soon be squabbling in the best mid European tradition. Huge resentment will build up against Merkozy and even more against their appointed unelected Gauleitiers like Monti. (A Gauleiter (German pronunciation: [ˈɡaʊlaɪtə]) was the party leader of a regional branch of the NSDAP(more commonly known as the Nazi Party) or the head of a Gau or of a Reichsgau.) It made my blood boil to hear the unelected Monti slagging off Cameron. I hope he remembers what happened to Mussolini.Let them have their Franco Prussian rulers. They will soon want the Brits back.

Cameron did not come back with anything new. Start with the Working Time Directive and the Common Fisheries policy and salami slice in the best EU manner. We may have just seen the start of the beginning of getting our country back!

British PMs are the US presidents poodle

2011-12-08T08:08:00.000-08:00

It was thus with Bill and Tony and Dubya and Tony/Gord and now Obama and Cast Iron Cameron. You want us to invade Iraq to cover your ass? Yes sir Mr President right away. You want us to go to Afghanistan to get our young people killed in an unwinnable war. Yes sir Mr President. Run the risk of a few Islasmic nutters killing 50 British citizens in London? No problem Mr President.

Thus it goes on and on. When will we learn? The latest series of undisclosed calls to Cameron from Obama order him to help fix the Eurozone. Pay for it out of the box marked British interests and on no account stand up for your own people. If you rock the boat Cast Iron it could cost me my second term as president so don't argue or I will be across the pond to kick ass starting with yours. I guess you know all about that from your days at Eton so I'll use a sharp cricket stump.

The tall guy on the steps of the Elysee with Sarky two days ago, well anybody next to Sarky looks tall even his wife, was Timothy Geitner, US Treasury secretary. He was there to give Sarky the same message. If you don't fix the Eurozone quick Obama is going to lose!

I thought it was great when the US elected Obama, a black man, as president. I changed my mind after his sordid vote seeking performance over the BP oil spill when around 12 guys were killed on the rig BP had hired from the US company Transocean. In Bhopal the American company Union Carbide was responsible for the deaths of around 25000 Indians foollwing a leak of toxic chemicals at its plant there. Funny we never here from Obama about that but you see Indians, especially dead ones, have no votes in US presidential elections.

The US are exerting huge pressure on all concerned to fix the Eurozone before next November's presidential elections. Sorry Mr President but it can't be fixed because of a fundamental design flaw. Still have a nice day and enjoy kicking ass!

Cast iron Dave is on a sticky wicket

2011-12-07T10:42:00.000-08:00

Just as I finished my blog yesterday Cast Iron came on the TV announcing he was going in to bat for the City on Friday against the demon EU opening bowlers Sarky and Merky with Barroso and Rumpy as first change. Cast Iron has a poor average of zero against EU bowling. He has threatened to use his veto but the EU bowlers know he is poor against the short pitched stuff so will ensure he gets plenty of it and they will get him out pretty quickly!

Cameron's antics reminds me of that children's party game where you have to keep your hands and feet on widely spaced coloured circles. His circles are his back bench eurosceptics plus BoJo, his back bench Europhiles plus his LibDem 'allies', saving his beloved Eurozone and keeping Tory financial backers in the City onside and writing the cheques. Quite a stretch for the man of iron! No wonder he did not look well today.

On the markets Germany got its 5bn € bund auction away today twice covered. No surprise there as the Gestapo had previously visited the four big players, Dodgy, Comical, Dreadful and Hypothetical with the rubber truncheons so they knew what to do. Its all been stage managed. Merkel could not afford a repeat of the uncovered 23 Nov bund auction fiasco before her great moment when she is crowned the Empress of Europe.

The Tory backbenchers put on a good show today at PMQs. Dave and Pinnochio Clegg could have to concede a referendum on our EU membership. It will be a very dirty fight. I can remember the dirty tricks used in the 1975 Wilson referendum by the Europhiles and the EU.

Is EUKIP prepared for the fight? Of course not! They won't know what has hit them in such a campaign. The Europhile media have a huge amount of unpublished damaging material on EUKIP'S leadership. EUKIP is of course still adding to this pile. Today in the DT Stephen Pollard writing on lobbyists describes EUKIP latest star recruit thus, ' "The cash for questions" scandal in which Neil Hamilton and Tom Smith, two Conservative MPs , were found to have been paid cash by a lobbyist, Ian Greer,to ask questions in Parliament on behalf of Mohammed Fayed was as straightforward an example of tainted politics as you could imagine.'

The Tories ditched Hamilton as an electoral liability. He will be an albatross round EUKIP's neck. Farage and his MEP cabal will retain their lucrative EU positions either way. Who said there was no money in politics?

Dave & Gideon, the markets are watching you!

2011-12-06T10:06:00.000-08:00

So far the boy Dave and his oik friend Gideon call me George have escaped the scrutiny of the bond market which had bigger Italian fish to fry. This honeymoon period is now coming to and end signalled by UK 10 year gilt yields starting to creep up 2.30 % tonight. This even with Bank of England QE support that has so far bought up 200 bn £ of gilts! Gilts have also benefited as a funk hole for money wishing to exit the Eurozone but they may soon realise its out of the frying pan into the fire. I cannot see the UK economy standing up to close scrutiny. So far the incredible incompetence of Merkozy has been the focus of the market's attention but that will pass and it will be on to fresh pasture.

The UK political elite are now in referendum denial mode with Pinnochio Clegg's nose getting longer and longer and Dave's cherry red cheeks blushing even more. They are treating the great British public like idiots to be feted for 3weeks every 5 years and then ignored. Perhaps when Gideon's austerity measures start to bite and unemployment rise the public might become just a little bit angry with LibDem lies. They forced an unwanted AV referendum on us for their own sordid electoral advantage and now deny us the referendum on EU membership so many of us want. The are neither Liberal or Democratic but I can offer them a morsel of comfort. As long as Nigel Farage remains EUKIP leader the chance of the UK electorate voting to leave the EU is vanishingly small.

To win such a referendum will take organisation, money and political talent. I am reasonably certain someone like Stuart Wheeler might supply the money and Nikki Sinclaire has shown she can organise a referendum. It will however need a lot of political talent like Daniel Hanaan, IDS and people of similar calibre to campaign for the leave the anti-EU side. EUKIP's fruit cakes and loonies will need to be kept in a dark room for the duration of the campaign along with Fuerher Farage. Make no mistake the LibDems will fight a very dirty campaign. They are renowned for it.

Our best ally in this struggle will be the EU Markozy dictatorship. There is a huge resentment in Europe against The Germans and the French are not liked either. All Dave has to do is not support Merkozy and play the repatriation of powers card for all he is worth. If Clegg opens his mouth just call an election. He won't be around a month later to bother Dave or the UK electorate either.

And for the next Franco Prussian coup d'etat

2011-12-05T12:03:00.000-08:00

There can be no doubt now that Germany runs the EU. Following their successful regime change operations in Greece and Italy Merkel and her poison dwarf Sarkozy have expanded their ambitions to the whole Eurozone and will control the budget of all the states who are in the Euro.

And what did our great political leaders Cameron, Clegg & Millipede have to say about this unprecedented power grab? Well nothing, so no change there then.

The markets desperate for good news rallied with Italian 10 year yields dropping below 6% for the first time for 6 weeks. All helped by the IMF, now run by the fragant frogette Christine, announcing today it was lending the Greeks 2.2 bn € most of which will go straight to French banks. Quelle surprise! Unfortunately these Anglo Saxon party poopers the ratings agency S&P put France, Germany, Netherlands, Luxembourg Finalnd & Austria on negative credit watch. Wait and see what happens at the next Eurozone debt auction when bankers have to put up real money. Words are easy but collecting tax in a society whose national sport is tax evasion is very difdicult/impossible I opine rates will rise or the auction will be uncovered.

And where is Farage's EUKIP? Well nowhere as usual.

I had hoped there was a slight chance of a UK referendum on our membership of the EU. That is now less likely. Cameron and Clegg have to hang together or they will hang separately. They know they cannot win a referendum so there will be no referendum. Simples. Sordid party interests trump our countries' needs. Clegg of course has his eye on a lucrative EU position like Kinnock, Mrs Kinnock and Kinnock junior held. The EU is expert at incentivising the political elite and ensuring the real power stays with them not the people of Europe. Its a corrupt system that will eventually lead to a bloody revolution for which of course the ordinary people will be blamed.

As for repatriating powers from the EU its not the right time says CleggCam. Wait for three years until we sort out the Eurozone problems and then we will get our powers back. Listen Dave things are being settled right now. This is exactly the right time to do it. Wait for 3 years and the Eurocrats will laugh at them and say where were you 3 years ago when we were deciding these matters? The ClegCam tale is just a fairy story. I stopped believing in them years ago just as I stopped believing Nigel Farage could get us out of the EU 5 minutes after I met him.

Watch politicians actions not their lips

2011-12-04T09:57:00.000-08:00

There is a rumour current in Brussels that many of the Eurocrats are seeking safe bank funk holes for their money. This follows on the stories of some Euroland banks being in difficulties and leading to the Fed organised dollar easing of swap lines. Its a very indicative development. These people will know more of what is really going on than the journalists. If they are checking out the lifeboats its a sign that the Titanic project may be in real difficulties.

I remember once when I was at the BoE as a result of some research I had done I wrote a note on the parlous state of some UK insurance companies. I was amazed the people who then approached me to say if the insurance office they had their funds with was in trouble! They were not bothered at all about the systemic risk to our financial structures which was why I had written the note!

Alan Wood sent me a copy of a rather amusing variant on the flogging a dead horse syndrome that is currently in vogue in Brussels

The Dead Horse Theory

The tribal wisdom of the Dakota Indians, passed on from generation to generation, says that; When you discover that you are riding a dead horse, best strategy is to dismount.

However, in our government more advanced strategies are often employed, such as:

?1. Buying a stronger (and more expensive) whip.
?
?2. Changing riders.
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?3. Appointing a committee to study the horse.
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?4. Arranging to trips to other countries to see how other cultures ride dead horses.
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?5. Lowering the standards so that dead horses can be included.
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?6. Reclassifying the dead horse as living-impaired.
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?7. Hiring outside contractors to ride the dead horse.
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?8. Harnessing several dead horses together to increase efficiency.
?
?9. Providing additional funding and/or training to increase dead horse's performance.
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?10. Doing a productivity study to see if lighter riders would improve the dead horse's performance.
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?11. Declaring that as the dead horse does not have to be fed, it is less costly, carries lower overhead and therefore contributes substantially more to the bottom line of the economy than do some live horses.
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?12. Rewriting the expected performance requirements for all horses.
?
?And of course....
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?13. Promoting the dead horse to a supervisory position.

Many a true word is spoken in jest! Many horses died in Napoleon's retreat from Moscow but maybe Sarky has not read his history. General Winter defeated Napper and Adolf. I hope the economic winter will defeat Sarky and Merky.

Will Merkel succeed where Napoleon and Hitler failed?

2011-12-03T13:49:00.000-08:00

Since the reign of Elizabeth I British foreign policy has been based on preventing the rise of a single dominant continental power. To that end we fought with the Germans against Napoleon's French Continental system and with the French against the German armies of the Kaiser and Hitler. It has worked for over 400 years but apparently our political elite know better and are actively encouraging the rise of a continental superpower so that they can speak with a bigger voice on the world stage and satisfy their pathetic egos. The truth is as Elizabeth I and Pitt knew a continental superpower would extinguish the British voice for ever.

We have a chance to use the current Eurozone financial crisis to start to get back some of our sovereignty given away by Heath and his successors but I fear our political leaders are not what they were. Since Margaret Thatcher we have been led by pygmies. The Irish have already found out the extent of Merkel's power when their latest leader Enda Kenny visited Berlin to members of the Bundestag already studying details of the proposed Irish budget which was not due to announced for a month and had not been shown to the Irish parliament. No one knows how this happened!

Merkel holds all the cards now but it will cost her a lot financially and politically to play them. I think she will push it as hard as he can for Germany's advantage and then play her trump and we may well be living under German rule like the rest of Europe for a very long time. Is this what our fathers and grandfathers fought two world wars for?

The only serious opposition to Merkel will come from the bond market and her own electorate. For our sake I hope the bond market wins but its a hope not an expectation. It s impossible to predict what our craven political elite will do to save their own skins.

Pressure grows on Cameron

2011-12-02T11:53:00.000-08:00

The boy is between a rock and a hard place domestically and on the European front. He is not a conviction politician. He is a PR man with no real beliefs in anything but himself. He sounded the retreat from his repatriate powers position on Tuesday with his employment minister Grayling abandoning demands to repatriate employment powers because of 'the urgency of the eurozone crisis'. His fall back position is to protect the position of the non-Eurozone EU powers when the Franco Prussian panzers roll forward. This is clearly an untenable position that will leave Merkozy free to pick of the non-Eurozone countries one by one once the Dr Frau has subdued her rebellious PIGS.

His country is in dire economic straits a large part of which is caused by EU regulatory work time directives strangling British business. As always when the first shots are fired Dave is the first to retreat. He reminds me of my Father's old joke that he joined the infantry not the cavalry so as not to have a horse slowing him down when the retreat sounded. Sarkozy already treats him like shit and Dave just stands there and takes it. Does he not make you ashamed to be British. He will soon be a target for the Berlusconi treatment.

On the home front he faces increasing union and civil unrest. He cannot hope to face down the unions on a field of rising unemployment and declining living standards. The unions will win. The traditional way out for a national leader in this predicament is to blame it on Johnny Foreigner. Dave cannot do this as his propaganda arm the BBC speaks for the EU as does the fifth column Clegg, Huhne, Cable and Alexander in his cabinet who will leak anything he proposes that might damage their beloved EU in the most damaging way.

He will face a series of demands for yet more anti EU referendums. His LibDem arm will of course oppose these demands but his loyal but discontented troops who see the spoils of government going unfairly to the LibDems and not them will support these anti-EU calls for all they are worth. They know the kick Johnny Foreigner tactic works.

His chief technocrat is busily engaged in shooting any slight economic recovery in the foot. Asking the banks to raise yet more capital is insane in the current climate. Banks are uninvestable right now. No one in their right mind would put more money into banks in the present climate. As for cutting bankers bonuses not even Warren Buffet could make that one stick!

There are one or two glimmers of hope. Labour has its worst leader since Michael Foot. He misses open goals so regularly he really should be playing for England. There is no love lost between Sarky and Merkel and her desire for German hegemony in Europe awakes old memories of the master race syndrome.

The Yanks by flooding the market with dollars have bought the EU a little time however if the Republicans find themselves a credible presidential candidate then that source of support will quickly dry up.

I cannot see this coalition going the distance. For the first time since 1972 I can smell the possibility of an election or referendum on us leaving the EU. Will EUKIP be mobilised for this great battle? Not while Farage remains as leader. If he stays he will literally piss away in the bars of Brussels the chance to save our country.

So what did the Yanks do to help out the Eurozone and why?

2011-12-01T12:03:00.000-08:00

Formally a consortium of central banks led and organised by the US Fed agreed to lower the cost of existing dollar swap lines by 0.5% from 5th Dec. These central banks were all obviously singing from the same hymn sheet. It looks like a pre-arranged contingency plan agreed by the central bankers club but what was the contingency that triggered their plan? Clearly it was one or more major Eurozone banks could not access dollar liquidity at any price to roll over their dollar positions. Other banks simply did not want to lend to them. This was exactly the scenario that brought down Northern Rock, however as it was a comparatively small bank it posed no major systemic threats to the banking system.

This time it must have been one or more big Eurozone banks most likely French but possibly German that were in real trouble. The Yanks stepped in and not for the first time pulled the Europeans chestnuts out of the fire. They won't get any thanks for this from the EU elite who will continue to blame the failure of their great project not on its flawed design but on the perfidious Anglo Saxons.

This has been building up for some time. John Redwood points out, " More and more of the business that used to go through the inter-bank market now goes through the Central bank of the system. Commercial banks do not trust each other enough to lend and borrow between themselves on a big enough scale for their needs. The weekly liquidity supplied by the ECB to banks rose to Euro 265 billion." They of course get less interest on their money than they would get on the inter bank market but they are sure they will be repaid in full. They are scared to lend in size to each other so for sure they won't be lending to business either. Bad news for the Eurozone economy.

What the Yanks did has worked at least in the short term.Italian 10 years dropped below 7% to 6.7% with Spanish bonds dropping to 5.8%. Less obvious but I think more significant was the drop in French 10 year rates to 3.1% a spread to gilts of 80 basis points. This spread has been well over 100 basis points for the last month. It looks like it may have been a French bank that was in difficulties. The French had a relatively successful bond auction today which I suspect was largely French bank activity.

But its only a short term liquidity fix and does nothing to address the underlying insolvency of many Eurozone countries. Tonight Sky reported that the Spanish central bank expected the crisis to worsen. A strange statement given Spain had a relatively successful bond auction today. Sure they paid a lot more than last time but they sold €3.5 bn bonds. I suspect banks were coerced into making it a success.

On the home front MAK was putting on his hair shirt and urging banks to conserve capital and cut bonuses. Ask not why MAK is not popular. I wish GB had appointed Andrew Crockett or Howard Davies 8 years ago.

On the UKIP front its good to see John Petley back writing on the EU. He is an able and talented man and like many of that ilk kicked out by the talentless Farage Cabal.

Yanks show the EU how its done

2011-11-30T12:30:00.000-08:00

The Stock market roared up today on the back of the Fed reducing the costs of dollar swaps to European banks thus ensuring they could access the dollar funding they need. The Fed could do this as they control the US currency and Bernanke can act as he sees fit. In the Eurozone the EU crats continue to squabble, no one is in charge and no one really owns the bastard currency. Whilst this persists there will be no lasting solution to the Eurozone's problems.

I did a Q&A session today for www.the-eu-nit.com website. It was pretty wide ranging and I tried to explain a number of the Eurozone money problems in everyday language. This interview should appear on the web site in due course.

Meanwhile our day of action has come and gone. I have lost out on my pension by the change from RPI indexation, which is what I agreed to, to CPI indexation which was introduced as the governments preferred inflation measure by Gordon Brown for short term political expediency. Like his sale of our gold and his robbery of private sector pension funds in 1997 it was a very bad decision for the UK but it was politically easy. Says it all about our politicos. The more they talk about tough decisions you know they mean the easy politically expedient decisions. Similarly hard working families means benefit claimants who don't work and have no intention of ever working.

The difference between what the Con Lib coalition is doing and what Labour proposed doing is tiny compared with the huge problems facing our country.They choose to fight over this square metre of mud to avoid talking about the real issues. Its the same approach they use to avoid talking about the dire effect the EU has on our country. This has to be put on the agenda very soon or we will face huge civil unrest as people lose their remaining confidence in our devalued democracy.

Italian interest rates up, UK borrowing up where is UKIP?

2011-11-29T07:15:00.000-08:00

Osborne's latest budget called the Autumn statement now admits that UK gilt issuance in this fiscal year will rise to £178.9 bn from the £167.5bn forecast in the budget 6 months previously. That is a £11.4 bn jump in 6 months. The bond market's reaction will be interesting to say the least.

Reuters reports that .Rome had to offer a record 7.89 percent yield to sell 3-year bonds, a huge leap from the 4.93 percent it paid in late October, and 7.56 percent for 10-year bonds, compared with 6.06 percent at that time.

These borrowing costs were above the levels at which Greece, Ireland and Portugal applied for international bailouts, but European stocks and bonds rallied in apparent relief at the strong demand, with the maximum 7.5 billion euros of Italian debt sold.

The unknown is who bought the debt. I suspect it was bought by French & German banks acting under pressure from their governments. These banks will very quickly sell the debt on to the ECB to add to what by now must be at least a €250 bn pile of Eurobonds it already has. I was amused to see Rumpy and Barroso with Obama yesterday with complaints they had got the wrong Europeans. Where was Frumpy? Surely she would not miss such a chance to do her Xmas shopping.

Merkel has them by the balls. She is squeezing hard and will continue to do so until she gets the Treaty changes she wants consolidating her power over Club Med. She has her towel on the pool lounger and she is not shifting it yet. She is playing a very tough game as her electoral survival depends on it.

I was amused by the Mary Riddell peace in today's DT saying, "This will be a terrible week for the Tories, but does the Opposition have the wit to capitalise?"

This is exactly the question I have been putting to Farage's EUKIP this last year. It has been a horrendous year for the Eurozone. Does EUKIP have the wit to capitalise on their misfortunes? No is the resounding answer. Yes UKIP is up to 8% in the polls but at such a low level the margin of error is larger than the usual 2% for a party with around 30% of the poll. I opine the reasons for the increase in UKIP support is purely domestic reflecting dis-satisfaction with the Con Lib coalition from disgruntled Tories. Farage and EUKIP do not have the ability to connect Eurozone cock up to UK malaise in UK voter's minds. They are second rate politicians and will continue to miss open goals in the best tradition of Tranmere Rovers.

UK needs the Anglo Saxons not the EU squabbling mid Europeans

2011-11-28T03:03:00.000-08:00

I will always remember how bitter my New Zealand and Australian friends were in 1971 when it became clear that Heath was going to sell them out for his European dream. I contacted them in late 1972 to point out how Heath had also sold out his own countrymen, our fishermen, to secure his appalling European deal. I well remember during the All Black 72/73 tour that coincided with Parliament's vote on Heath's sordid deal the New Zealanders in the crowds chanting 'Give them the EEC' as the All Blacks defeated most of the UK opposition but inexplicably lost to the French!

A history programme this weekend on the defence of Tobruk against Rommel's Panzers lead by Aussie part time General Leslie Morshead inflicted the first ever reversal of a Panzer attack suffered by the Germans made me think about how much we owe to the ANZACs, the Canadian, the Indian and other Commonwealth soldiers along with the Yanks who fought and died for our country during two world wars. Morshead's well organised defence of Tobruk turned the war in Africa in our favour. Without the Aussies there could have been no El Alamein. Who would you rather rely on in a fight, the Italians and French or the Aussies and New Zealanders?

Heath and his chums were obsessed with fighting the last war not preparing for the next. It has been the British Sandhurst way throughout history and persists today in Afghan. They talk endless twaddle about learning lessons but always miss the big points. Their laudable aim of no more European wars sounds eerily like the WWI slogan, the war to end all wars. That slogan led to the millions being killed.

The EU claim supported by the UK euro philes that the EU had kept the peace in Europe these last 60 years is patent nonsense. Last time I looked at the map the Balkans were part of Europe and 200000 people were slaughtered there while the EU political elite squabbled. It was only when an American led organisation called NATO steeped in and bombed Serbia to the negoriating table that the killing largely stopped. The EU want to air brush NATO from history as did De Gaulle successfully in France I remember French Euro crats in Brussels telling me France was liberated in 1944 by De Gaulles's Free French forces! De Gaulle of course then went on to do his best to sabotage NATO and undermine the US dollar. As Churchill remarked the cross of Lorraine was the hardest cross he ever had to bear in WWII.

What we are seeing now in this latest Euro crisis is a rerun of the traditional mid European squabbles. The EU should read European history and learn from it a and stop trying to rewrite it. Orwell in his novel 1984 pointed out where that leads to. The horrible scare tactics used by the EU to cow the populace is terrifyingly like the Big Brother tactics in the novel with Barroso as big brother.

The pseudo economic arguments used in 72 and 76 and peddled by the EU philes today on the advantages of UK membership of the EU are as false today as they were 45 years ago. The EU is a mature flat lining market dominated by the huge ultra efficient German economy. The only UK businesses that will benefit are UK importers of Mercs, BMWs etc. The new expanding markets where UK industry can succeed are in the Pacific Rim and India. That's right the very countries Heath and his chums betrayed to join the then Common Market. The other growth area is of course financial services centred on London and based on the fair play enshrined in UK common law. In which jurisdiction would wish to argue your case, UK or France?

I have no idea where this Eurozone crisis will go now. The rational economic solution is to break up the Euro into at least two parts. The people in charge however are not capable of rational thought in this matter. Their reputations, beliefs and whole raison d'etre depend on the Euro. They will go piling insanity upon insanity. I opine the hated Anglo Saxon Yanks will have to step in and rescue them eventually as they have done before as one possible scenario.

The two lessons the UK government should learn are you will never stop squabbling mid Europeans fighting each other and second the UK's true interests, economic and political lie with the Anglo Saxon countries with which we share a common language, culture and legal system. Its time to remember who our real friends are.

Prepare for riots in euro collapse FCO tells embassies

2011-11-26T11:14:00.000-08:00

Thus reads the headline in today's DT. I think I wrote this about 18 months ago but of course the FCO are always the last to know what's happening. An unnamed UK minister is quoted as saying Britain is planning on the basis that a euro collapse is just a matter of time. "It is in or interests that they keep playing for time as that gives us more time to prepare" is the verbatim quote. So in the current metaphor lets hope they keep kicking the can down the road but what happens when they reach the brick wall at the end?

Riots and social unrest opines the FCO, along with bank failures and UK citizens left unable to access their bank accounts. This from the organisation that gave you the Maastricht Treaty setting up the Euro, a currency without an emergency exit. Investors are getting their cash out of the Eurozone as fast as possible and are clearly not buying even German bunds on this weeks auction results.

Politicians are very good at conning the general public. The general public think they are listening to people with the same moral standards and sense of right and wrong as themselves. They are of course total mistaken in this belief. Politicians of all parties and countries are largely amoral, self serving and interested only in saving their electoral skins and keeping the other lot out of power.

Bankers on the other hand operate with the same complete lack of decency as politicians so are not susceptible to the con men that form our political elite. In short the politicians fine words and ringing phrases cut no ice with our hard nosed self serving bankers. Hence the reception each gale of hot air from the Eurozone elite on the unthinkable break of the Euro gets from the financial markets. An initial positive response rapidly followed by a much larger reverse. You can't con a banker with half baked political rhetoric or threats of financial Armageddon. They know whatever happens they will be needed by whoever is in government, Generals, Colonels or despots.

I did enjoy Nigel Farage's, 'who elected you', attack on the three EU stooges at the Euro talking shop. It was good knockabout stuff and I am sure UKIP's rank and file will enjoy it on YouTube. Its a pity more of them do not realise the party they belong to is EUKIP, emphasis on the first two letter.

But it was always thus. As Dr Goebels realised a big lie is always better than the truth. If you want to extract some semblance of truth from the statements of politicians reverse. An example of the big lie is the way our MPs refer to themselves as honourable or right honourable. The expenses scandal showed the truth about these people was the exact opposite. So when they say the Euro will not be allowed to fail you now know what they mean. You can't con an old Bank of England sceptic!

Another disastrous bond auction twists the Euro death spiral

2011-11-25T11:17:00.000-08:00

Italy paid a record 6.5 percent today for 6month money far above levels seen as sustainable for public finances.

The auction yield on the six-month paper almost doubled compared to a month earlier, following the failure of a German bond auction earlier in the week.

Italy managed to raise the full planned amount of 10 billion euros (8.6 billion pounds), at the highest borrowing costs since it joined the euro. Investors are scared and bond yields hit record highs on the secondary market.

Yields on two-year BTP bonds soared to more than 8%in response, a euro lifetime high, despite clear purchases by the European Central Bank.

The ECB was buying Italian and Spanish bonds in an attempt to shore the market up. But given its public reluctance to prop up high-debt eurozone governments, its bond-buying programme lacks conviction in the market's eyes.

These yields threaten Italy's planned gross issuance of 440 billion euros for 2012 as interest payments on the country's debt stock rise. Maybe Mario is not so super after all!

The Euro seems to have entered a self fulfilling, self induced death spiral. Only the ritual electoral suicide of Dr Frau Merkel falling on her pickelhauser spike and allowing the ECB to buy Euro sovereign debt in gigantic quantities can now save this ill conceived and deeply flawed currency and that will only give a temporary respite.

Two big mistakes were made by the Eurocrats. Forcing banks to mark sovereign debt to market instead of using its par value immediately confirmed sovereign debt was any thing but risk free. Second the decision to force banks to accept write downs 'voluntarily' on sovereign debt to avoid triggering Credit Default Swap contracts and hence avoid a public default made these CDS contracts worthless. Banks can no longer use them to insure against sovereign bond losses so banks have decided not to hold these bonds at all. The ECB have been the only buyers and must by now have a huge pile of crap Eurobonds on its balance sheet.

The suggestion by the FrancoPrussians that Greece might be kicked out the Euro let the cat out of the . bag. Why stop at Greece? Why not Portugal, Ireland etc. Currency risk was now on the banks agenda big time. Their response? Cut lending to the Eurozone as fast as possible.

Truely a cock up of Napoleonic proportions. Remember what happened to his Grand Armee in Russia, 500,000 men at the start of his Russian campaign and 10,000 at the end. Let us hope the great EU project meets a similar fate.

Dave has to choose, the City or Brussels

2011-11-24T11:31:00.000-08:00

The boy is not looking too well recently as Barroso and the other EU crats gradually force him into a corner. He has either to choose the EU, sacrifice the City and face his enraged back benchers and more importantly his City backers or defend the City and his country and be hurled into the European outer darkness and face an early election in the UK. Dave is between a rock and a hard place. Just what he deserves.

The Euro crisis rolls on and is now lapping at the shores of the Fatherland. Italian bond closed at 7.17% tonight with German bunds now yielding more than UK gilts. The Eurozone economy is in dire straits. As for the UK EU philes with their 40% of UK exports go to the EU well 40% of zero is zero and thank God we have still got 60% left at worst. The lesson for UK business and UK governments is don't put all your eggs in one basket. Since the days of Henry VIII no good ever came to the UK from being in Europe but the siren voices as always sing its different this time. The war to end all wars, peace in our time and the biggest current lie the EU has kept the peace in Europe since 1945. Well no did not. The American lead NATO did that despite De Gaulle's best efforts to sabotage it.

Is EUKIP well placed to capitalise on this once in a lifetime opportunity? Is it ready to mobilise a mass campaign to leave the EU on the streets of the UK? Well no, it spends most of its time in Brussels working for the EU.

I have great faith in the ordinary British people. I hope for a great grass roots uprising driven by mass unemployment, falling living standards and a burning sense of financial injustice. John Redwood wrote a very amusing piece on the army pointing out that as the army shrinks the number of top brass increases. We could put three battalions of Lieutenant Colonels, some 1800 men in the field tomorrow. We have three full Colonels for every battle tank. Great except none of them no how to drive the things. So no danger of the army being used in a Churchillian manner to quell the rebellious plebs. They are all driving desks in Whitehall.

We have not had a good revolution for a while and by Jove we need one now to save our country from the LibLabCon, BBC watching Guardian indoctrinated political elite.

German bond auction disaster

2011-11-23T10:23:00.000-08:00

The German 10 bond auction today with half the offering unsold and German rates going higher than US rates for the first time in recent years, 2.04% compared with 1.96% for the US. This was a real confidence breaker for the Eurozone with Italian 10 year bonds ending at 7.01% and Spanish bonds ending at 6.66%. UK gilts ended at 2.14% a record low spread to bunds.

The EU response was as always to call for more fiscal control from Brussels and demanding that national budgets should be submitted to Brussels for approval before they are seen by national parliaments! THe main blame for this of course must lie with these parliaments who like our own have handed over power wholsale to Brussels. Its going to be a hard sell to their electors so I anticipate more techno/euro crat governments soon.

Eventually they will learn as have many US presidents that the bond market is the most powerful force on God's earth! The lesson will be a hard one with much pain but not of course for the Eurocrats who will go on demanding inflation busting pay rises.

Treaty changes will soon be demanded by the EU. Boy Dave will have to put up and call a referendum or kow tow to the LibDems and shut up. Either way he is toast but what and who comes next? Comments please.

Another election but Brussels still rules

2011-11-21T09:17:00.000-08:00

I returned from France yesterday to find no change on the UK or European scene. The Spanish have had their election. Its run on a party list system like our European elections and elects a parliament as powerless as the European talking shop our MEPs go to. As in the UK the Spaniards do not vote for the candidate they want. The candidates are chosen by the party leadership and they owe their loyalty to the party leadership. They do not give a stuff about the voters so its just like EUKIP. It is the European way to ensure Brussels rules Ok!

As I write the ten year bond rate for Spain is 6.59% and Italy 6.67%. Compare that with Germany,1.91%. The ECB has of course been buying Spanish and Italian bonds on the quiet in the secondary market just to keep rates at these unsustainable levels.

I am not a great fan of Roger Bootle or indeed any big name UK economist but his piece in today's DT business is very good. He points out that UK policy is driven by those politicians and diplomats obsessed with having a seat at the 'top table'. Overweening pride and arrogance is the characteristic of all political elites. Its a seat that has cost the UK dearly and has delivered nothing for the ordinary people of the UK. As Bootle says such UK influence as we have exists because we are the Eurozone's single biggest export market! So if we were to leave the EU the Merkozy countries would lose much many jobs than the UK if they did not strike an immediate trade deal with us.

It is not tax harmonisation, a common currency and regulation will not deliver jobs for any country, only successful businesses can do that. The Eurozone is at best a stagnant/declining market. The growing markets are in India, China and South America. Markets where pre 1972 the UK was strong. We should return to these markets asap. Our Europhile political elite is fighting the last 39/45 war in the finest British tradition rather than looking ahead at what is coming out of the East.

I want a country with a rising per capita GDP. A country with a weak government responsive to and under control of the ordinary people like Switzerland. Look where strong government has led us, Iraq, Afghanistan with worst of all a huge sacrifice of young UK men and women.

Let us return to our own country. Rid ourselves and our business of the intrusive EU regulation and recognise that the Euro is a failed project of a failed state.

I opined many months ago that this whole sorry tale will be settled in blood on the streets of the capitals of Europe. I pray the boy and his chum Gideon will put the interests of the UK people first and not their deck chair location on the EU Titanic.

Italians pay record high rates on their 5 year bond today

2011-11-14T08:45:00.000-08:00

The 10 year rates that are usually quoted are taken from a yield curve fit to the latest traded prices of all Italian bonds in the secondary market. It does not give the price that Italy is paying but an estimate of the price Italy would have to pay if it issued a 10 year bond today. Yield curves generally slope upwards with bond maturity so the yield on a 10 year will be higher than the yield on a 5 year which will be higher than the yield on a 2 year etc. Today Italy sold 3 bn € of a 5 year bond and had to pay 6.29% roughly twice what it paid on its last 5 year offering. this is going to go on and on as Italy has to roll over its debt portfolio and boy does iTALY HAVE A LOT OF DEBT TO ROll over, 350 bn € in the next 12 months.

This will start eatig lasrger and larger chunks out of Italy's falling tax revenues out of which it has to pay for schools, police, hospitals etc not to mention chauffeur driven limos for their MPs and the 100000€ a year barber they employ to cut Berlusconnis few hairs. Yes he like our own GB is still an MP.

The ECB have been very naughty. They had been buying up Italian debt like billy oh and has 200 bn € on its books already but last week it stopped its purchases. Yields soared and as a result Berlusconni fell. Now that hhe has gone and Monti is in the ECB will resume purchasing Italian bonds in the secondary market. Italian yields have fallen back about 80 basis points and this has been hailed a technocratic triumph. for Monti. The markets are not that easily fooled but you will get a lot from the Eurocrats about their wonderfull regime change effect.. Its pure EU propagnada.

The Italians have a long tradition pre Mafia of knifing their leaders. Ask JC. I would advise Signor Monti not to visit the forum.

Any way I am off to Sarky land tonight for a few days. The only decent WiFi connection there is in MacDonalds but my wife does not like to be seen there so I may be incommunicado for a while.

Lions led by donkeys all over again

2011-11-13T10:10:00.000-08:00

Today I went to the Armistice day service in our local village church. I did it for my grandmother whose adored elder brother, Sergeant William MacKenzie a regular with the Royal Scots died at Loos in 1915. There can be very few UK indigenous families who did not suffer a similar loss. I detest those who now claim British citizenship and denigrate and demonstrate against our armed forces whilst hiding behind their human 'rights'. These rights were bought with the lives of these brave men and women who fought and died for this country.

Loos ended as a bad reverse because of French insistence to attack over ground that Douglas Haig regarded as unsuitable. Have we learned nothing in the intervening 100 years about bowing to French dictates? Its always paid for by sacrifice of British interests

I have always regarded the First World War as a Franco Prussian war we should never have been involved in. It ruined this country morally and financially. John Redwood wrote a piece today confirming he shares my views on WWI.

"I developed more of a dislike of the politicians who thought this was a necessary and worthwhile war. The first war lacked the cause that a hated ideology and the fanatical treatment of non Germans by Hitler gave to the second. It lacked the sense that the UK had to stand alone and fight to preserve her independence from tyranny that the nation shared in 1940. In 1914 the Uk went to war over the Balkans and ended up fighting shoulder to shoulder with France in what was yet another Franco-German dispute. The Uk could have stayed out of it, safe in the knowledge that her mighty navy shielded the homeland from threat and her Empire offered her trade and commercial interests."

John Redwood then goes on with another argument that I have made and EUKIP should be making but of course are not/

"If there was a strand of common policy that provided some justification in the twentieth century it was the wish to avoid any single power dominating the continent. How ironic that today the UK’s foreign policy seems based on encouraging France and Germany to unite, when the twentieth century saw us fight two huge wars to prevent just such an outcome. We can be proud of and grateful to our armed forces. We should pause to ask if the politicians spent too many lives and too much treasure in European interventions."

As I opined yesterday this minority Tory government whose only interest is in staying in office does not have a European policy. The vacuum is filled by the EU worshipping Lib Dems. It's a disaster for the UK if this is allowed to continue.

There is one small ray of hope. Despite its hopeless and inept leadership the EUKIP vote has gone up to 7% in the polls. This indicates the huge anti-EU feeling now in the country. The last time something like this happened was just before the 2010 European election when the main three political parties all managed to shoot themselves in both feet over the expenses scandal. EUKIP doubled its expected number of MEPs on the back of this good fortune. Farage of coursed just pissed this away. His overweening hubris, EUKIP c'est moi, as they say in Brussels, stopped UKIP from backing Nikki Sinclaire who was doing such great work getting a parliamentary debate for a referendum and mobilising voting support in Parliament.

It is time for the ordinary branch members of UKIP to support Nikki and kick out Farage and his loathsome Cabal. Take a leaf out of the Merkel's EU book and install a group of technocrats to run UKIP properly and on a sound financial basis. The feeling in the country against the EU is now so strong that all UKIP has to do is wait, keep its nose clean, support Nikki and the prize will fall into our lap. Having people like Hamilton prominent in UKIP is barking mad. UKIP now needs people probity, honesty,integrity and competence to succeed electorally in Westminster elections. That's what Merkel is trying to achieve in Italy and Greece. Just imitate her and succeed! Spivs and failed disgraced politicians equals Berlusconni in the electorates now opened eyes.

Cameron has not a clue what to do about Eurozone crisis

2011-11-11T08:28:00.000-08:00

I wrote yesterday about the weird out of character performance of my former Bank of England colleague Matthew Hancock now a Tory MP on A Neil's lunch time programme. I opined the only reason I could think of was that his old boss G Osborne had not a clue what to do. Today's DT centre page piece by Iain Martin entitled 'Dithering is leaving Britain without a role' implies neither does Boy Dave! He has been led by the nose by the EU loving FCO into an impossible position.

The FCO's whizzo idea to increase UK influence in the EU and consequently decrease Franco Prussian effect was to support increasing the size of the EU. It failed! We ended up with a huge influx of mid Europeans taking our jobs, houses etc and Sarky and Merkel not only still run the EU but have tightened their grip and power in Brussels. They have successfully pursued regime change in Ireland, Portugal, Grrece and Italy. In the last two they have successfully installed their puppet Eurocrats, described as technocrats, as PM.

How is it in British interests to support a Franco Prussian hegemony in the EU? How was it in British interests to support Christine Lagarde, a prospective French presidential candidate as the managing director of the IMF, a role she now combines with her membership of the ruling EU politburo!

Cameron is running scared. He wants to hang on as PM. Why? What is he achieving? Better to have another election now which would at least oust the EU phile Lib Dem bums from government seats. An election the Tories would easily win. Is Millipede II a credible electoral threat?

As Iain Martin writes Cameron should tell the FCO to convene a summit of the group of 10 in London asap to stick it to Sarky and Merkel. If the FCO don't like it start firing the Permanent Sec plus a few ambassador and fill their jobs with outside appointees untainted by the love Johnny Foreigner and to hell with British interests culture that pervades the FCO.

Yesterday's DT business gave the figures for September's UK Italy trade. UK exports to Italy, £803m. UK imports from Italy £1.2bn! That is pretty well the pattern across all UK EU trade explaining our £12 bn trade deficit last month fueled of course by the BoE's money printing to boost UK demand whilst of course the German's keep the screws on EU demand through their control of the ECB. Again UK policy helps Johnny Foreigner not British workers. Lets not forget the EU phile claims that 3 mn British jobs(no source ever given!) depend on the EU market. On these figures 4.5 mn EU jobs depend on the British market but of course all we ever hear from on the BBC is 'British business'. Presumably the same British businessmen that awarded themselves 50% pay increases last year whilst laying off the few UK workers not yet replaced by low cost immigrants.

Remember it was British business that urged UK membership of the ERM. Now ho much did that cost? Who cares they still got their obscene bonuses for lousy performance.

I expect to soon see more trouble on the streets of Europe as austerity really bites. We will not be immune.

Its Serious

2011-11-10T11:55:00.000-08:00

I heard Ollie, the Spad from The Thick Of It, on breakfast time TV talking about how what he regarded as silly comic ideas that went out in the series suddenly appeared as 'new political initiatives'. He cited the idea of a national database of spare rooms as one which was trialled on the Tick of It which has now emerged as a government proposal.

I switched on A F Neil's Daily Politics at lunch time to find my former Bank of England colleague Matthew Hancock MP on with Lib Dem MEP Sharon Bowles to discuss the Eurozone crisis. Its serious said Matthew to be followed up by at least a dozen repetitions of the same phrase with accompanying chorus of its serious from La Bowles.Indeed the its serious comment was all a pissed off Andrew Neil could get out of him. This discussion first took place in a Yes Minister episode with Jim Hacker and I think banker Sir Desmond Glazebrook who managed to keep a 5 minute scene going just using the its serious phrase.

Politics does indeed follow fiction. I suspect the reason for Matthew's confusion is that his old boss Wee George has not a clue what to do about this crisis and Matthew did not want to stick his neck out. Ms Bowles was quite sensible for a LibDem.

Meanwhile back on the markets Italy raised 5bn € at 6.06% in a twice covered one year bill auction today, double the rate they paid only a month ago. This will have to be repeated again in 12 months time. This auction was of course carefully stage managed to ensure it was not a complete disaster, i opine most of the issue will be sold to the ECB within one week to join the 120bn€ + of BTPs the ECB already has on its books. Merkel's objection to the ECB buying outright BTPs is purely for domestic political consumption. The ECB has been buying Italian bonds in the secondary market each week for the last 6 months and will continue to do so indefinitely.

Ten year bond yields tonight were Italy 6.95%, France 3.47%, UK 2.23%. I don't understand why Gilt yields are so low. It can't last. The ECB will be in the market tomorrow buying BTPs in an effort to keep the yield below the psychologically important 7%. They got a bad fright yesterday.

How the EU is destroying our democracies

2011-11-09T07:14:00.000-08:00

As I write Italian 10 year bond rates have hit 7.4%. a spread to bunds of 5.5%/ Italy has to fund 300bn € debt next year/ That will now cost them an extra 16.5bn € per annum in interest payments compared to Dr Frau Merkel. Eyewatering, and remeber the Italians have nearly 2 trillions of government debt.

The response of the EU is to urge an Italian government of national unity headed by a 'technocrat' former member of the ECB council ie an unelected, unaccountable Eurocrat house trained already to carry out Brussel's wishes. It is the exactly the same solution that the EU is imposing on Greece, a governament of national unity headed by a Eurocrat technocrat. This is the death of democracy in both these countries. Neither has our 700 year democratic tradition to fall back and both have been within living memory military dictatorships. Note how even in the UK our government of national unity enabled the LibDems to tear up many of their electoral pormises to our own students and kow tow to their Brussel's masters befouling our democracy in the process.

The EU has already exploited the Eurozone crisis to bring down the democratically elected governments in Ireland and Portugal and now Italy and Greece. It is destroying democracy and bring us all in to a Napoleonic Soviet system with all power concentrated in a ruling politburo under the Reichsfuerher. Captain Mannering would be more effective against this foreign takeover than the current UK political class of juveniles and party arse lickers.

I wrote some time ago that the crucial conflict in the EU will be fought on the ground of EU Brussels interests versus national politicians seeking re-election. This is no where seen more clearly than in the current argument over the ECB printing money just like the Bank of England. The French and the Latins all want it but Dr Frau Merkel knows it would alienate her totally from the hyper-inflation scarred German electorate and lead her and her party to electoral annihilation. She is not a lady to be gainsayed.

Sarkozy whizzo idea that La France is so terrifically important that the world would bail him out met defeat at the hands of the US Sino alliance in Cannes. European solutions for EU problems is what Obama said to the would be Napoleon. The real one of course met his nemesis in a field just outside Brussels at the hands of the Prussians. I opine Sarkozy may meet a similar fate if only we Brits can pluck up the courage to do as we did at Waterloo and help the Prussians

John Redwood put it thus earlier this week:

The Euro destroys a big part of national democracy. The issue then is how do people change the policy if it is not working or they do not like it? Democratic consent relies on the ability to change policy as well as personnel and on the hope of a better tomorrow. Euroland politicians have a big task in maintaining that consent. Blocking the Greek referendum was a political mistake.

Euroland politicians also have a big challenge to set out a compelling vision of how this can work and why it might be better. If they do not allow sensible democratic opposition and proper consultation of the people affected by their one size fits all policy, people will find other ways of dissenting. That is how we have reached the point in Greece where many do not see the need to pay their taxes..

It is also important to know the enemy and understand how he thinks and operates. Thus Richard North wrote criticising Freddy Forsyth's lack of understanding of the acquis commutaire:

Most have nothing more than the vaguest understanding of the nature of the EU, its origins and its workings, their brains clouded by a fog of ignorance and incomprehension. Clear that fog and the issues become clear. We are in the European Union, and remain members bound by its rules, not because of the acquis, but because parliament permits it.

The European Union is not the problem. Parliament is the problem – and it is to there, not Brussels, that our wrath should be directed. The EU is not a matter of foreign domination, as so many eurosceptics wish to believe. It is what our parliament does to us. Everything else is babble.

When this is understood, we might start to get somewhere.

Dead right Richard and that is why Farage's EUKIP is so useful to the EU. It diverts almost the entire UK anti-EU effort from where the real battle must be fought to an unending series of Duchess of Richmond's Brussels balls. Britain's battles may have been won on the playing fields of Eton but they certainly will never be won in the pubs of Brussels or the impotent EU talking shop where Farage postures and preens himself.

Politicians propose, markets dispose

2011-11-08T11:48:00.000-08:00

Poor wee George off to another useless finance ministers meeting today accompanied on Eurostar by Nick Robinson who reported that yet again no way forward found. George does his usual berating of the Eurozone apparatchiks which achieves nothing. Until the Eurofanatics take the reality medicine there can be no solution. Things will steadily get worse for the people of Europe. There is no money left as I think Mr Byrne said last year.

Italian 10 year bond rates closed today at 6.76% a spread to bunds of 4.96%. That's bail out country! French bonds, OATS, closed at 3.1% compared with the UK gilts rate of 2.27%.

I am amused at the ad hominen attcaks and language used by the EU crats to smear Papandreou and Berlusconi. David, Del and I suffered the same from the Faragista Cabal on EUKIP's NEC. The Cabal embodies the true spirit of the EU. Delors would be proud of them.

Eurozone countries sovereign bonds are not sovereign

2011-11-06T02:40:00.000-08:00

A sovereign bond is one that is risk free and one that can always be repaid in any circumstances. This is because for a nation state issuing a bond in its own currency it can always repay the bond by printing more of its currency. This may of course have huge inflationary consequences but there can never be a default. For this reason such bonds are given zero risk weighting in BIS bank capital adequacy calculations.

So called Eurozone sovereign bonds are thus not sovereign because they are denominated in a currency which is not controlled and thus cannot be printed by the country issuing the bond, even Germany. This means that there can be a default and the probability of a default reflects the market's perception of the ability of the issuing country to repay its bond debt. Thus the price, interest rate, that different countries have to pay to raise money by issuing bonds, IOUs in everyday parlance, varies from Germany at around 2% to Greece at around 20% currently.

The root of the financial malaise currently gripping the Eurozone lies in the refusal of the EU political elite for their own political agenda to acknowledge these simple facts. All Eurobonds are not equal and some are decidedly less equal than others.

Because banks, driven by BIS capital adequacy rules, are huge holders of Eurozone bonds they are highly susceptible to problems generated by this lack of sovereignty. Thus we might well soon see runs on banks known to be large holders of Greek and Italian bonds extending even to all banks in particular countries eg France. For these reasons as I write corporates are transferring funds to banks in countries like Germany and out of countries like Italy. Bankers unlike politicians are rational people who generally have to pay for their errors with their jobs. Ask Fred the shred!

I have doubts about the current Merkel panzer approach. exemplifed by the latest pronouncement designed to frighten the Italians reported by Reuters.

ECB Governing Council Member Yves Mersch said.

"If we observe that our interventions are undermined by a lack of efforts by national governments then we have to pose ourselves the problem of the incentive effect," Mersch said according to extracts of an interview with Italian daily La Stampa to be published on Sunday.

Asked if this meant the ECB would stop buying Italy's bonds if it did not adopt reforms it has promised to the European Union, Mersch, who heads Luxembourg's central bank, replied:

"If the ECB board reaches the conclusion that the conditions that led it to take a decision no longer exist, it is free to change that decision at any moment. We discuss this all the time."

Wow! Just the thing to terrify Bunga Bunga man into submission? More likely to make him a national hero standing up against the jack booted Huns!

Merkel's Prussian boot is on Europe's throat

2011-11-04T09:58:00.000-07:00

Almost 100 years ago the UK became involved in a horrendous European war that destroyed our country economically and morally to defend the sovereignty of what was then portrayed in the British papers as 'poor little Belgium. Now we have to endure Merkozy kicking the daylights out of the Greeks having three years previously kicked the Irish over the wrong referendum result and not one of our political leaders from any party dare say boo to this bullying Prussian woman and her evil manipulative dwarf French henchman.

Why do you thing the Greek finance minister came out at 4:00 am that morning to denounce the Greek referendum plan? He had a call from Merkozy. Its called interfering in the internal political affairs of another nation something that Adolf Hitler specialised in. This bullying Franco Prussian interference in the affairs of other sovereign European nations can do nothing but harm and lay the foundations for further European conflicts.

This is what loss of sovereignty means in practice. Its all been too boring for the British to bother about. You don't bother about it until the Prussian jack boot kicks your bum. Essex man and Essex girl with their City jobs are soon going to find out what Merkozy has planned for them.

I wish Merkozy's threat to kick Greece out of the Euro had been called. Why? I don't know how they would do it. Six years ago I participated in a half day meeting dealing with how a country could leave the Euro. Many of the City of London's best brains were all there but nobody had the slightest idea how exit from the Euro could be managed. I don't think Merkel or the dwarf has an clue how to do it either.

UK government policy is a shambles. Cameron said this afternoon the UK would contribute more to the IMF to help with the Eurozone crisis. That money is just a hidden bung for Merkozy's hubris. Its the ECB's job to print the money to do this and save the Eurozone from meltdown but the Huns with their inflation hang up wont let the ECB do this. Why do we have to pander to German paranoia while allowing the Bank of England to debauch our own currency? Cameron and Osborne should defend British interests but they are enslaved by the Euro phile FCO plus the 56 LibDem MPs/ One simple number Cameron your 81 Tory rebels outnumber these Lib Dems yet they have no ministerial posts or salaries like Clegg and his awful cronies. The Boy could soon be toast.

The much vaunted Greek rescue deal is not about saving Greece but about saving the Euro. Mr Papandreou knows this. The other motivating force is that French banks are the counterparties in many Greek Credit Default Swap deals. These would be triggered in the event of a declared Greek default. Could these French banks meet their contractual obligations.Not a hope. They would be bankrupt and the French government could not raise the money to save them on their name. The would have to grovel big time to Merkel and the Chinese.

I would not be surprised to see a military government soon in Greece. Time for the panzers Dr Frau Merkel?

Greeks have the Eurocrats by the short & curlies

2011-11-03T11:46:00.000-07:00

I am enjoying watching Sarky Merkel squirming and blustering over Mr Papendreou's intention to put their bail out to the Greek people. I am not surprised. The bail out is about saving imprudent French bankers who lent to Greece without doing their due diligence and the face of the Euro establishment. Its the Greeks who will have to pay and they don't want to The opinion polls say they want to stay in the Euro. Simples! I want it but I don't want to pay for it.

I opined many months ago that the Euro crunch would come when the wishes of the EU ie Sarky Merkel came into conflict with the interests of national politicians seeking re-election and Athens. That is what is now playing out in Cannes.

Look you Greeks says Sarky Merkel decide now if you want to stay in the Euro and if you don't give us the right answer your not getting your promised €8 bn. So Mr P seems to have had a change of heart, no referendum and and Dave and Nick type coalition. What will tomorrow bring?

The despised Anglo Saxons who run the international bond markets on hard nosed logical lines are not impressed. The Italian 10 year bond now yields 6.16% and the French bond spread to Gilts is now 0.76%. The Chinese are not playing ball and the EFSF offering has been left on the shelf. Zut alors!

The Greek's will still call the shots because they can bring the whole EU house crashing down any time they choose. Bismark would have mobilised the Prussian army by now. I would not rule out a Greek army coup and a Greek default. They have done both before more than once. This story has legs.

Democracy is reborn in Greece

2011-11-02T02:41:00.000-07:00

Its appropriate that the Greeks have re-invented the Athenian Boule of 500 BC where all citizens had a vote on government policy. Good for Mr P. It does not matter which way the referendum goes only that it is held! Its great that the hopeless Greeks can organise a referendum in a month but the Rolls Royce minds of the British political elite cannot organise one in two years! The reason is that the Greek politicians want a referendum and our political elite do not! Its their worst nightmare people voting.

Hannan's piece in today's DT entitled, "Eurocrats are utterly terrified of democracy" sums it up.One of the Greek MPs called it a catharsis. Spot on lady! Catharsis comes at the end of a Greek tragedy after the hubris that has gone before.

I would widen Hannan's argument. It applies to the political class in our own country just as much. Politicians hate elections and the democracy it brings. They prefer to work behind closed doors fiddling their expenses.

Is it a coincidence that the most prosperous country in Europe, Switzerland, is the one that has the most referendums and gives the least power to its political class. Obviously no coincidence given the number of times the Swiss have voted down their government's policies.

Poor old Mr P he will be ganged up on and beaten up in Cannes by EU's Gestapo and SS but his battle is our battle so I hope our MEPs will take every opportunity to support the Greek referendum.

How to save the PIGS bacon

2011-10-31T07:18:00.000-07:00

The answer is simple, split the Euro into a Mark area, Germany, Belgium, Holland, Finland and Austria and a Euro area comprising the PIGS and other dodgy European economies. The Euro will then devalue big time boosting the PIGS economies but as their debt will be denominated in Euro they will repaying their debts in a devalued currency.

On the other side the Mark area currency will appreciate from the old Euro rate reducing their debt burden big time. Who loses? Well the PIGS bondholders but this way its perfectly legal and can trigger no nasty CDS inducing credit events ie defaults. Who gains? Holders of bunds who can repay in devalued Euro that they can buy on the open market. You don't have to redenominate their old Euro debt. Again all strictly kosher.

The observant amongst you will notice France is absent from my list. Its a tricky problem. Economically it belongs in the Mark area which will be politically dominated even more by Germany. A difficult problem for Sarky. Does he want to be the biggest fish in the Euro pond or the number 2 fish in the Mark pond. A choice Sarky wants to avoid but as AEP writing in today's business DT a choice that is unavoidable.

You end up with two workable currency areas rather than what we have now, one unworkable area. Will it happen? I doubt it. Much humble pie would need to be eaten by the Eurocrats and they don't do humble pie or common sense either. Like Napoleon they will march on until the onset of the coming freezing economic winter forces a retreat. For students of history that great French military genius Napoleon crossed into Russia with an army of 500,000 and exited with an army of 10,000. The Eurozone, the latter day Grande Armee, might well meet a similar fate unless common sense prevails but pride is a deadly sin with deadly consequences for others not of course the cosseted Eurocrats.

Merkel warns of another conflict in Europe that only the EU can prevent. She has got it the wrong way round. The coming meltdown is an EU creation from start to finish. The hubristic EU is the cause not the cure.

Eurozone deal starts to unravel

2011-10-29T12:45:00.000-07:00

First a clarification on my Commons debate blog which could have been read as Trevor Colman left UKIP. I should have made it clear by adding the words 'MEP group' but as I was writing in the context of the European parliament I omitted to add these words. Apologies for any misunderstanding caused. If I post something you think is wrong please post a comment on my blog to that effect.

Yesterday the Italians had to pay 6.06% at their 10 year bond auction. I f you look back at my blog earlier this week you will see then the Italian 10 year was trading around 5.95%! The great deal has been counter productive for the Italians it seems. I expect more of the same for the other PIGS.

I am astounded that the EU are going cap in hand to one of the nastiest most totalitarian regimes in the world and not a squeak from our Lib Dems, Labour and other liberal apologists. Abuse of human rights is a way of government in China but where the great project's survival is concerned all moral scruples are irrelevant. The EU's emissary will have a hard time persuading the Chines to part with their cash to such a bankrupt operation. They will drive a very hard bargain the details of which will be so humiliating they will never be made public.

The whole rescue is full of holes as to where the money is coming from. There is a huge circularity. Banks lend to governments so they can recapitalise ie give money back to the banks. There will be a huge amount of money printed by the ECB and when the Germans realise what is going on Merkel will be toast.

Eurozone Deal Mark 5

2011-10-27T09:10:00.000-07:00

I occasionally get contacted by the Evening Standard for my take on matters financial. I reproduce the content of my email to them below. Whether they use it or not is up to their editor.

(What I find amusing is to hear my neighbour Ashdown pompously declaiming on TV today that if we were in the inner EU group we could fashion EU rules to suit the UK . I stopped believing in fairy stories many years ago but I guess the sandals, beards and orange anorak brigade, the Lib Dem's first of foot, still like a nice comforting bedtime fairy tale from Paddy.)

My email:

Your piece covers most of the angles but as always the devil will be in the
detail that has not yet been made public probably because they have not yet
thought it through to a proposal stage.

The Chinese think very long term, 10 years is nothing to them. They will
want a long term lasting solution to the Eurozone crisis before they would
have the confidence to invest. They will demand their pound of flesh which I
opine might be a long term secret most favoured nation status for Chinese
exports to the EU which probably Sarkozy and Merkel can deliver but in the
long run it will be a poor bargain for the EU. Of course the real point is
to save Sarkozy's, election next year, and Merkel's political skins.

The Chinese will of course insist their loan ranks pari passu with the IMF
and ECB so no haircuts for them!

I feel the EU would do better with a mixture involving the Middle East
sovereign oil funds plus possibly some from the Norwegians. The Arabs think
more short term. They bailed out Barclays in 2008 and then exited at a
profit within 18 months. A clean deal. Any Chinese deal will have a very
long tail.

We are deluding ourselves if we think we could have any influence in these
matters. Germany has the money, end of story. Merkel is also rattling the
European nightmare of aother European war. Completely impossible in my view.
The US would never stand for it but I am surprised that Merkel, a Prussian,
raised this. She must be desperate.

On the Eurozone itself I cannot see the other countries being happy long term
with Franco German domination. The Sarkozy Merkel humiliation of Berlusconni
will have been a bit scary for the other Latin countries.

It is of course another sticking plaster job avoiding the real reforms that
Greece etc have to make. It also creates huge moral hazard in that the
Portuguese, Irish, Spanish and Italians will demand the same treatment for
their debts.

It looks like its the private sector that will take the hit when a country
borrows too much. Very bad for a private sector led recovery. Public sector
holders of Greek debt apparently do not face a write off of some of their
holdings. Greek taxpayers will still have to pay interest and repay capital
to the various public sector holders.

Are Euro area leaders going to say to private sector pension funds and
savers that they should not expect a Euro area government to
honour its debts and repay money borrowed?. It won't just be Athens that will
see street protests but Italy as well given the trouble already raging there on
raising the pension age to 67.

I hope these countries have enough police to provide their elected
representatives with a 24 hour police guard. They may well need it to
protect them from the enraged populace when the ramifications of the 'deal'
sinks in.

A referendum to keep up the momentum of Monday's debate

2011-10-26T06:00:00.000-07:00

Now the door has opened it is time to keep up the pressure on the EU lovers. The core argument all who want their country back must rebut is that it is an economic benefit to the UK to be in the EU and if we left we would have mass unemployment and a complete economic meltdown in the UK. A I wrote that is bollocks. It is a scare story fabricated by the EU philes and articulated ad nausem by Shirley Williams etc over the last 35 years to keep the UK public believing that without big Daddy EU we will be destroyed. but how do we rebut it?

This morning I found in my email box coming I suspect via Tim Congdon details of another e-petition that has just been started calling for:

" An independent cost benefit analysis of the UK membership of the EEC /EU since 1972. The resulting information to be published before a national referendum on whether to leave or remain a member of the EU."

This is something I have asked for many times since before Heath took us in and has always been refused by the political elite as expensive and pointless as the EU was so self evidently to our benefit. Well now we can force another debate in parliament like Monday's. Click on link to go through to the referendum page. If this link does not connect enter

https://submissions.epetitions.direct.gov.uk/petitions/188

in your web browser address line

Its the same rules as for Nikki's, we need to get 100000 signatures to force a debate and its all done over the web and by email - dead easy. This is the debate that will kill a lot of the EU lies and propaganda. I urge you to do it if you want your country back.

EU Referendum Debate

2011-10-25T04:42:00.000-07:00

The result of 81 Tories voting against Cameron can only be a good result for the UK. It however shows just how dependent the boy's government is on Lib Dem support. Not a nice place to be as they are the most duplicitous and two faced of all UK political parties. If you wanted to pick out the nastiest dictatorships, just choose those with the word Democratic in their title. Pure Dr Goebbels! Thus it is with political parties. The Lib Dems are the most undemocratic and unscrupulous party operating in the UK, They hide behind weasel words more than the Tories or Labour. Clegg was at it again today saying they would call a referendum if there was a further significant transfer of powers to the EU. Who says what is significant? Why Clegg over of course. I opine there never will be a significant transfer in the LibDem view.

Nikki with support from the Daily Express has put the EU problem onto the UK political agenda big time for the rest of this parliament. It was amusing to see Farage jumping on the band wagon yesterday. Its available as a YouTube post on the UKIP website. It was a typical Farage rant in front of around 50 or so UKIP supporters. His cry against our MPs of 'Let them not forget' should resonate with these supporters also who should ask Farage, "What did you do to get the great debate dear leader?"

Many of the parliamentarians made excellent speeches raising many good points that Dave wants to ignore. David Nuttall who moved the motion raised an issue close to my heart viz the forced closure of the Bury special care baby unit because of the EU working time directive. This was laughed at by the Labour front bench. They should go up and explain the joke to the mothers who lost their babies in Bury because of the lack of neonatal special care medical staff. Truly those who control all the UK political parties including UKIP are the dregs of humanity.

The difference between the front bench careerist politician speeches and those from the backbenches, many from MPs with no hope of preferment was obvious. The latter spoke from the heart and had clearly listened to their constituents. The former merely mouthed the party line and their interest was clearly their own political career. Farage's EUkip carries on just like the LibLabCon whips, threatening decent people with de-selection and demotion for not toeing the great leader's moronic line. Its not just boy Dave who has made a big mistake and misjudged the mood of his party and the country.

Things will never be the same for boy Dave. Like Greek debt backbench rebellion is contagious! In politics its not the enemies in front but the ones behind you have to watch out for. Dave has made a lot of enemies in the Tory party in a very short time. He is being propped up by Clegg over, not a prop I would want in my front row! His only positive is he is facing the worst leader of Labour since Michael Foot but it is a truism that oppositions don't win elections, governments lose them. If the next election returns the LibDems to the obscurity they deserve then that will be a positive result for the UK and would make another 5 years of Labour more palatable.

I think we are in for an interesting year politically and I would say its even money that the Coalition wont go the full distance.

Commons Debate will show up EUKIP's failure

2011-10-24T02:01:00.000-07:00

Nikki Sinclaire with her hard work has achieved a hit on the EU phile Tories that Farage and his sleazy cabal of EU paid Brussels based drinking cronies could never have achieved. They only pay lip service to leaving the EU and have no intention of doing anything practical to further getting us out of the EU. You only have to look at their hopeless, antiquated web site , proprietor J Arnott, and compare it to the Greens, Lib Dems etc to see how little effort EUKIP makes between MEP elections. This stems from not just a lack of will at the top but a deliberate attempt to sabotage the efforts of those who could articulate the arguments to further our cause, mainly by kicking them out of UKIP leaving only the Farage loyalists who are not up to any serious factual political debate but do ad hominen attacks ad nauseam. Nikki Sinclaire suffered from this as did I and many others.

It is to Nikki's everlasting credit that she refused to be distracted by these malicious attacks and attempts to sabotage her campaign and pressed on to achieve an outstanding result. There is an excellent post on Butcher's forum which summarise this very well. Click on link to read it

Trevor Colman, Rick Timis and Andrew Fear attempt to rectify some of the information deficiencies of UKIP on their The EUnit web site. Click on link to access. Trevor of course has now left UKIP's MEP group refusing, like Nikki, to associate with Farage's nasty neo-fascist 'colleagues' in the European parliament.

Farage, allegedly for red leather reasons wants to ingratiate himself with Boy Dave and the Tories. Hence his electoral offer reported in Saturday's Daily Telegraph that UKIP will not oppose those Tory MP's who today vote for a referendum on our EU membership. Click on link to read. Sounds a bit like UKIP's last great Tory leader Pearson who even went out canvassing for the Tories.

Listen Farage if I and most other UKIP activists had wanted to work for the Tories we would have joined the Conservative party. I don't like being conned.

Ashley Mote in the letter also published in Saturday's DT nails Cameron' undeliverable promise to repatriate powers to the UK from the EU. As Ashley's letter makes clear it can't be done while staying in the EU. its a lie and Cameron knows it!

Sir

MPs and others supporting the option of renegotiating British membership of the EU forget one crucial fact.

The process of Asquis Communautaire is embedded in the treaties. It is a one-way ratchet. Once the EU has taken “competence” over an area of government, it cannot be returned to the member states.

Our only realistic alternative to membership is to walk away, take our billions with us, and wish them well. If that is how Europeans want to govern themselves, that is a matter for them.

We were far better off as a global player – and can be again.

Europeans are our neighbours. They should be our friends. They cannot be masters in someone else’s house.

Ashley Mote

Precisely! Ashley was of course kicked out of UKIP by the Farage regime in the usual manner and Andreasen installed as an MEP in Farage's South East region at Farage's behest. Where is Andreasen now? I gather she mainly divides her time between Barcelona and Brussels. Bannerman, another Farage protege, has gone of to the Tories.

But its the dog that will not bark that counts. There are no UKIP MP's in the Commons today to speak for our cause nor will there ever be while Farage controls UKIP. That is EUKIP's eternal shame.

What are the bond markets saying about the Eurozone

2011-10-21T10:50:00.000-07:00

It is difficult to know what is going on in Euroland principally because I suspect the Eurocrats themselves have no idea what is happening. Sarky is dancing attendance on Merkel because he wants her money. The lady is not for parting with it because if she did her electorate would crucify her. The Germans are very unhappy. The gave up their excellent currency, the Deutschemark and superb Bundesbank for the dodgy Euro and politically malleable ECB.

The markets views as always are expressed in their pricing of bonds so let me try and update my little table of sovereign bond spreads that I last updated 7 weeks ago:

15th July 18th July 16th August 2nd Sept 21st Oct

Greece 17.71% (15.02) 18.23% (15.57) 15.51 (13.18) 18.28(16.18) 24.7 (22.5)

Ireland 14.27% (11.58) 14.45% (11.79) 10.18 (7.85) 8.73(6.63) 8.23(6.03)

Portugal12.93% (10.24) 12.84% (10.18) 10.90 (8.57) 10.50(8.40) 11.76(9.56)

Spain 6.07% (3.38) 6.32% (3.67) 5.02 (2.69) 5.10(3.00) 5.34(3.15)

Italy 5.77% (3.09) 5.99% (3.34) 5.04 (2.70) 5.20(3.10) 5.84(3.64)

Greece bond yields have increased and Greece is now on ECB life support. Ireland continues to make good progress. The Spanish have improved a bit and the Italians are now slightly worse than 3 months ago despite a huge amount of Euro babble. German rates have hardened but French rates have now softened to a bund spread of 0.96% compared with the UK's 0.41%. Its not just Merkel Sarky is not impressing its also the markets.

I doubt things will be any clearer after the weekend. For sure there will be a huge amount of hot air from the tower of Babel. Greece has to default soon to stop the contagion. The French banks are strapped for cash and will need a bail out. Sarky wants the EU to pay but the Dr Frau says Nien. Use your own dosh Sarky. Never mind Sarky wee George and Cameron are a softer touch!

The Great Dabate Debacle

2011-10-20T08:58:00.000-07:00

UK membership of the Common Market now the EU has been one of history's great con jobs. A disgraceful political argument fighting the last war masquerading as an economic movement. There never were any economic benefits for the UK in 1972. I worked in the Civil Service at that time. There were certainly not any economic benefits to the UK then, only losses like our Fisheries, but fishermen had no votes in Toryland. There are considerably less benefits now especially when you add in the effects of uncontrollable EU immigration.

It was a political project from the start and remains a political project to this day. A desire for a United States of Europe generated by the humiliation the French in particular felt for having to be rescued by the hated Anglo Saxons twice in 25 years from the Huns and then the Russians. That motley incompetent crew of money grabbing mid Europeans who run the EU think they can compete with the USA. God help us if it ever comes to a real shooting war with these people in charge! I don't know what Barroso, Rumpy and Frumpy do to you but the idea they run the EU terrifies me.

Our basic problem is the huge democratic deficit we have in this country that enables the political class to get away with murder. Countries like Switzerland and Norway that have a real democracy have fared much better. Not in the EU, trading with Europe and with a high and rising per capita standard of living.

Our House of Commons is a mid 18th century joke with its nonsensical procedures that the political class exploit to feather their own nests and become Lords eventually. That is the root of our problem which will persist even if we get out of the EU.

The economic benefits claimed by the Europhiles are not because of the EU but despite it! I heard the slimy LibLabCon MacMillan Scott claim today that the EU had kept inflation on target these last 10 years. We achieved the same in the UK for 10 years under Eddie George. As a member of the MPC for most of that time admiited to me, "Is it because we are good? No its because we have been lucky to live in such benign times.

I want to vomit every time I hear a Europhile claiming credit for successes they had nothing to do with. Things are now getting a lot harder! Tell the Greeks about the benefits of EU rule and see the answer you get. When the times get tough the EU crats tell bigger and bigger lies like a collection of Comical Alis.

The other side, the stick, is the claim about how much trade we would lose if we left the EU. Andrew Neil nailed that one yesterday. WTO/GATT agreements cover 93% of our trade with the EU. Its an empty threat!

Still the great debate will expose the Witney Witterer for what he is, a secret Europhile. Funnily enough in 1969 his predecessor as MP for Witney, Old Etoniasn Hurd visited our student house in Oxford with E Heath. Europhilia is endemic in Witney or maybe they contract it at Eton.

Well done Nikki & her EU referendum team. Farage should resign

2011-10-18T12:29:00.000-07:00

As a result of Nikki Sinclaire's referendum campaign and all the hard work her team put in to get the required 100,000 signatures demanding a parliamentary debate on a national referendum on our continued membership of the EU we have a debate in the Commons on 27th October. Brilliant! It was a terrific effort by Nikki and her loyal team

She achieved this in the teeth of determined attempts to sabotage her campaign by Farage and his political careerist sycophants. She has shown what can be done and what UKIP can achieve if it rids itself of the dead weight of Farage and his odious, self seeking, careerist cabal.

I call for Farage to resign as leader and for Nikki, Trevor Mike Natrass and every one else expelled by the Cabal to be readmitted to UKIP.

We can then have a proper leadership election with candidates who want to leave the EU not those failed Tories like the Hamiltons who have done nothing for UKIP but desperately want to get on the MEP gravy train.

Farage is a loser for our cause surrounded by ex-Tory losers. He has to go.

Now is our hour with the Eurozone in total disarray and a huge ground swell of public opinion against the EU in the UK and Germany.

I watched Nikki on Andrew Neil's politics show today. She was excellent and has correctly positioned her strategy to appeal to all voters across the political spectrum, Tory and Labour. That is what will deliver us out of the EU and return to us our country. Joan of Arc did it for France 500 years ago. Nikki can do it for us today.

EU philes two big lies

2011-10-17T12:07:00.000-07:00

To life's great lies, the cheque is in the post, I will still love you in the morning, we must add leaving the EU will cost jobs in the UK and the EU has kept the peace in Europe these last 50 years. Both are the exact opposite of the truth. They are scare stories to frighten the electorate into supporting the EU. UKIP must nail them at every opportunity.

The jobs scare story main proponent over the last 40 years has been the silver spoon in mouth, hypocrite Socialist Shirley Williams who while foisting comprehensive schools on everyone else without her wealth was sending her own children to fee paying schools. A woman who has never done a proper job in her life.

It was great to hear on Radio 4 tonight the BBC at last acknowledge it was possible to leave. A Civitas think tank spokesman told the truth about the job scare. The truth is the EU costs us jobs in the UK, directly in manufacturing and many more indirectly through its suffocating legislation which our own home grown bureaucrats love to gold plate. Any economic recovery in the UK is hindered not helped by our EU membership.

Businessmen who say otherwise are of course talking their own book and self interest. Nothing wrong with that provided their vested interest in the EU is admitted.

I heard one Tory MP at the weekend claim he had been to a meeting of 400 business men at the weekend and not one wanted to leave the EU. What was this meeting in aid of? I doubt if was a random sample. And I seem to recollect UK business was gung ho for UK's disastrous membership of the ERM. Business men speak for themselves not the UK population as any trade unionist will correctly tell you.

As for loss of the EU market, the UK has been trading with Europe long before the Roman's came to Rye and up the Severn strode and will continue to trade with Europe long after the EU has demised. Why? Self interest! And that is why any threats of banning UK goods are empty. The EU would lose twice what the UK did.

The peace claim is laughable. Look how the EU cannot even organise a rescue of a tiny country like Greece. Does anyone seriously believe this dysfunctional, motley crew of dodgy mid-Europeans could organise anything let alone the defence of Western Europe. Clearly the Yanks who did keep the peace in Europe these last 65 years via NATO don't think the Brussels shower can run anything. They are a collection of Tony Blair's. A hot air machine that produces initiative after initiative. Who cares if they work? Just crank up the hot air machine and move on to the next whizzo idea.

US loses patience with the Eurocrats

2011-10-15T11:14:00.000-07:00

The headlines in today's business pages make it clear the US wants action from the Eurozone over its long running Greek debt Eurozone crisis. Its not just the US but also the German banks that want action. The latter arises as the Basle capital adequacy rules assign zero risk weight to any Eurozone sovereign bonds held by Eurozone banks. It is obvious nonsense to assign the same risk free weight to German and Greek bonds but in the calculation of a bank's capital adequacy that is what currently happens.

Bankers know this and that is why they are unhappy about lending to other banks on the unsecured inter-bank market. It is a cardinal rule of banking that if you think there is the slightest risk you will not be repaid then don't lend. That is why the interbank market is virtually closed. To put it in a metaphor some UKIP MEPs will understand its like going into a brothel and not knowing which of the girls, or boys, have nasty sexually transmitted diseases that you wish to avoid contracting. As an old Scottish doctor said to me the only way to be sure in these circumstances is don't go there or as a banker don't lend on the inter-bank market.

There are ways around it. Banks can lend on the inter-bank repo market but this requires sovereign debt transfers as loan collateral. The collateral you would most likely be offered is BTPs, Italian government debt which is less than reassuring to the Anglo Saxons and also the Germans and French.

The relationship between bank lending and sovereign debt is thus the most crucial in finance.

After Lehman in 2008 we had a banking crisis with lots of banks with dodgy mortgage backed securities on their balance sheets to which even today they have not owned up to but the sovereign bond core was solid. Now our Eurozone friends have added sovereign debt risk on top! No wonder the Yanks are unhappy. They have made it clear the Sarky Merkel proposal of expanding the IMF balance sheet is a non-starter and they own the IMF despite the fragrant Frogette MD.

The problem is who pays for this Eurozone cock up. Sarky and his fellow travellers want some one else to pay. The US are having none of it. To repeat and parody what I was told many years ago by an EU DG, its a European problem and requires a European solution but of course that was if no payment was involved. Now there is the latest idea is to make the bond holders pay by taking a 'haircut'. That is what we Anglo Saxons unhelpfully call a default.

Next up is the EU pays but it does not have any money so it wants Sarky to pay. Sacre bleu! Do these fools not realise France is in the EU to take money out not put it in.

I have no idea what the EU will come up with at the G20 but it better be good!

Madame LePen shows UKIP how to capitalise on Euro crisis

2011-10-11T14:26:00.000-07:00

The most unpopular group in all European countries are the bankers. Every politician worth his salt is trying to cash in on popular anger against the bankers, Milliband, Cameron, Cable etc. In Europe its the same story with Sarkozy and Merkel bashing the bankers for all they are worth. And the reason, because that's where the votes are.

Nothing depresses me more than the complete failure of Farage's EUKIP to capitlalise on the banker's unpopularity and the long running Eurozone crisis. They prefer to attack me with ancient lies rather than attack the EU. Not so Marine LePen in France who has broadened her father's National Front party's appeal to the extent that she is now a real threat to Sarkozy in the first round of the 2012 French presidential election.

She has added to her father's vote wining anti-immigrant position strong anti-Euro, anti bank and anti globalisation policies that appeal to France's large group of left wing trade unionist voters. So her party now appeals across the whole political spectrum and in particular to the blue collar voters sick of shoring up the Euro and the oppressive power of global finance. She now appeals to the little people fed up with losing jobs to global rivals. LePen is promising to pull France out of the Euro, reinstate trade barriers and reassert the state's supremacy over market forces.

She is tapping into the huge anti-EU feeling in the French working class. All UKIP's bunch of old failed Tories will appeal to is a few old Tories who will return to vote Tory when it matter! That is never going to worry Dave and his chums. Who are UKIP's latest star recruits according to their spin machine? Hamilton and Lord Hesketh. Just the sort of people not to appeal to the UK working class and hard pressed middle class. Let them join UKIP by all means but why shout about it?

Marine LePen has put her parties finances on a sound footing. When will Farage do the same for UKIP? Outside her parties Paris office stands a statue of Joan of Arc who saved France from foreign domination. That is who she is aiming to emulate. She is a true patriot. All UKIP can offer is third rate and defunct ex Tories, juvenile fourth rate political careerists and neo-fascist mid Europeans.

UKIP NEC Ballot guide

2011-10-07T11:34:00.000-07:00

Last year I published a marked card of NEC candidates. Many people last year told me they found it helpful to know where candidates loyalties lay. By overwhelming popular request I repeat this for this years runners and riders.

The two outstanding independent thinking candidates are:

David Rowlands
Mike Smith

both include one MEP , John Bufton and Trevor Colman as seconders. Trevor is now Independent UKIP and John is veering that way. I have worked with John and Trevor in the South West and I can vouch for their honesty, integrity and dedication to our cause. Both Mr Rowlands and Mr Smith have real experience and are not reliant financially in any way on UKIP.

Then I would put those apparently untainted by Cabal and Young Independence (Farage youth) influence, no MEPs or party paid hacks amongst their proposers,

David Black
Nigel Carter
Charles Dodman
Michael Thomas
Rob McWhirter

The last would raise UKIP's IT quotient/

(The last is seconded by Julia Reid who I know can stand up to Farage)

If you want an independent NEC representing and upholding UKIP's aims and ideals then I suggest you vote for the first two above. Unlike the Cabal they are definitely not in UKIP for personal gain and as such represent the true ethos and spirit of UKIP.

The remainder are tainted by a mixture of MEP and party hack support and youth lacking experience. An easy target for Farage dangled Brussels baubles and finance. Most are to a greater or lesser extent Farage sycophants with some indeed supported by Farage himself or his long time associates Nuttall and Malcolm Wood.

I see D Denny, another long time Farage supporter, boasts of being involved in altering the party constitution yet again! So if you want less party democracy in UKIP and more rule from the top think carefully about how you vote.

Neil Hamilton has more political baggage than Jacob Marley's ghost but I can see one good reason for having him on board. He would be a credible alternative leader to Nigel Farage! I anticipate there will be increasing unhappiness in UKIP when Farage pushes on with his pan European party. There will be resulting leadership challenge. UKIP needs a complete clear out at the top and Mr Hamilton and his wife might just do that.

Why Nigel Farage needs the BNP

2011-10-05T10:20:00.000-07:00

I took a call from a friend today who told me there were anonymous postings on Democracy Forum associating me with the BNP. For the record I have never been a member of the BNP. I have never attended a BNP meeting nor shared a platform with a BNP speaker. I have only ever been a member of one political party, UKIP.

If this anonymous poster cares to put his name to his lies I will sue them for defamation. I know UKIP's lawyer warned all the then UKIP NEC that I would be certain to take court action if they linked me with the BNP directly or indirectly without evidence to support these allegations.

Why when the EU is at its weakest and UKIP has a once in a lifetime to topple the whole edifice does the UKIP spin machine waste its energies in internecine attacks on me and drags in the BNP? The only explanation is the UKIP hierarchy and wannabe MEPs do not want us out of the EU. They want to get on the EU gravy train. The money that flows from this plus promise of Brussel's jobs sustains the Cabal and its wannabe members and maintains Nigel Farage's grip on UKIP.

Nigel Farage was for the BBC the acceptable face of right wing Eurosceptism keeping the BNP bogey men off the air. It ensured Nigel a steady flow of appearances on high profile BBC political programmes with opportunities for Nigel to do what he is good at, promoting Nigel. It also ensured Nigel an easy ride without any real follow up or research by BBC interviewers. Where is Farage's oft claimed web posting of his expenses? Why does he continue to employ his wife? Why has his claimed former lucrative City business career never been investigated. His interviews are littered with inconsistent answers but these were never followed up. Why?

Compare that to the treatment meted out to Griffin by the BBC at that rigged London Question Time with a carefully selected biased audience. Certainly the BNP has some extremely nasty racist policies and some very unpleasant people but so do Nigel's allies in the EU, the Liga Nord etc. UKIP is also not short of unpleasant people with unedifying habits.

The BNP however is now falling apart. Griffin has been seduced by the EU money and status. It is no longer a credible political force that the left wing BBC needs to worry about. As a result the BBC no longer feels it has to promote Mr Farage as before . It has been noticeable that in the last year the able, intelligent, articulate Daniel Hannan is now the BBC's Brussels based MEP Eurosceptic interviewee of choice.

The UKIP Cabal are now desperately trying to fan the BNP embers into life to restore the previous
BNP bogey men in the BBC's pantheon of hate figures and restore Nigel to his former most favoured status. That is why I am now being attacked. It's pathetic and cannot possibly have any effect. It merely shows how inadequate and juvenile are those who spin for UKIP.

Nigel was always very assiduous in accusing his self perceived enemies of BNP membership or links but things have changed with the BNP crumbling and this tactic will no longer work. Politicians have always needed bogey men to frighten the electorate into voting for them. Its a pity Nigel's one has just died!

Lisbon Treaty & Bank Tobin Tax - the same EU winning tactics

2011-10-04T04:22:00.000-07:00

Shock, horror at this weeks Tory conference where one of their MEPs, Kay Swinburne, announced that the EU tax commissioner, Lithuanian Algirdas Semeta, had already started work on presenting this Financial Transaction Tax (FTT) as a Value Added Tax stripping the UK of its right to veto this proposal which will cost the City €50 bn. a year and cost the rest of the EU about €5bn. Now that's the sort of deal Sarkozy can really get behind and support!

If it were presented as a new tax then of course wee George could veto it. But alas the Tory Europhiles who were quite happy to go along with this deceit over the rejected Constitutional Treaty rebranding as the Lisbon Treaty are in Nelsonian terms going to be hoist with their own petard. Giscard d'Estaing author of the Constitutional was quite open about the rebranding, just the same message in a different envelope which the UK electorate could not vote on. I cannot believe the FO did not appreciate this but of course they represent Johnny Foreigner not the UK taxpayer.

It will be the same with the FTT. The UK will not get to veto the proposal which will be decided by qualified majority voting (QMV) and I opine the UK will be in a minority of one. After all why pay for something yourself if you can make the Brits pick up the tab! The other money grab by the EU concerns settlement systems having to be relocated out of the City into the Eurozone for safe keeping. This will cost the UK ten times the FTT. Its all a bit boring and esoteric but it will cost lots of people their jobs in the City just the same.

Cameron of course has stated he will use the same tactic to deny us a referendum on the EU. The Tories never change. I remember Heath doing the same thing in 1972. Cameron's fatuous claim that it is not the right time for a referendum of course this is because he knows they would lose! That is of course the traditional politicians response. Don't have a referendum if you think you might lose! Cameron was quite happy with the AV referendum because he knew he would win!

I have written little recently on the Greek Eurozone crisis as it is unfolding exactly along the lines I predicted months ago. All I can say is that the longer it goes on the worse and more painful it will be in the end. The Greeks will go on asking for billions more Euros until someone says No when they will default. The EU will want a default which does not hurt the French and German banks ie they will be paid in full and the others will take a big haircut of at least 50%. The legal cases will run and run.

It is a good job that the markets will hold the EU to account. Our elected representatives certainly won't! They have been bought and house trained by the EU for many years. There is no democracy for us and short of a revolution I cannot see us ever getting it back. Our MPs represent their party not their constituents and I can only see this democratic deficit being remedied by a possibly violent revolution.

Why our elected represenatives love the EU?

2011-10-01T07:29:00.000-07:00

Well the short answer is that is where the money is for them. Also, as the EU discourages elections and referendums it provides the political class with secure employment, little risk of redundancy and huge pensions.However in the unlikely event these pensions are not adequate an EU career also provides a host of lucrative quango type appointments to keep our former EU politicians in the style to which they have become adjustment post retirement. In short getting into and supporting the EU is a great career move for politicians who would struggle to earn a crust outside.

Surely by now the UK electorate will have noticed how quickly our elected representatives go native when they arrive in Brussels. Chauffeur driven limos, fact finding trips to such unpleasant places as the West Indies in winter plus a huge amount of flattery which is always very acceptable to a mediocre politicians ego and can turn even hardened Euro sceptics a bit like Karla turned Bill Haydon in Tinker Taylor.

This also affects how national politicians see the EU. After all they might graduate themselves to the gravy train one day! Thus Dr Frau Merkel was able to get through the Bundestag her incredible yet still inadequate 440 bn € Greek rescue package despite opinion polls showing 80% of her electorate were opposed. Surely the Dr Frau deserves the Charlemagne prize for this effort! I remember E Heath treated himself to his yacht Morning Cloud with his Charlemagne prize money. What will the Dr Frau buy herself I wonder?

I was away from home in Oxford until 10:30 last night. On the way down the A303 I listened to Question time on Radio 4 from Liverpool which had Burnham (Lab), Duncan (Tory), Polly Tonybee (Silver spoon in mouth party) and UKIP's scouser Paul Nuttall. Nuttall was introduced as a history lecturer and former professional football player although it later emerged that amounted to being on the books of 4th division (in ranking order) Tranmere Rovers. I would also like to know at which University in Liverpool Nuttall lectured, the premier league Liverpool, the Championship John Moores outfit or a first/second division former teacher training college. There are Universities and Universities!

(It so happens that I was at Oxford many years ago with a historian who was also on Tranmere's books. He never got his blue for soccer something which getting the best first in his year for history never made up for. He considered his University career a failure!)

The audience in Wigan was clearly overwhelmingly opposed to the EU but Nuttall with this home crowd backing did poorly in comparison to the 3 Oxbridge types. He may have been one these UK footballers who could not put the ball into an open goal. He certainly gave that impression.

When I returned I switched on my recording of Question Time. from Liverpool. The audience again was overwhelmingly anti EU. I suppose UKIP's spokesman on QT was Mr Oborne famous for his Mr Idiot description of an EU crat Newsnight this week incurring the wrath of Paxo and Richard Lambert. Again despite the favourable audience Mr Oborne, whose style reminds me of Mr Farage, was out flanked and then proceeded to finish the job himself by praising Mrs Thatcher, a totemic hate figure in Liverpool. Collapse of stout party! It reminded me when Mrs T was PM Patrick Minford, later one of the 'wise' men with Tim Congdon for Norman Lamont stood for the Tories in Birkenhead and was almost lynched when he went canvassing there.

Well with inadequates like Nuttall and Oborne articulating the anti-EU cause its little wonder that despite I opine an 80% anti EU feeling in the UK electorate boy Dave has no problem in getting his MPs to vote through any EU requests. Which MP in his right mind would wish to be identified with Nuttall or Oborne?

In fairness to UKIP members in the North West I must point out Nuttall was not their choice as MEP. Mr Beaman won the ballot but quickly resigned thereafter in Mr Nuttall's favour. I heard Mr Farage was very pleased with, and even encouraged, this outcome.

Until UKIP gets some serious intellects representing their views who can hold their own with the Polly Toynbees (silver spoon in mouth party) of this world then the EU will continue to walk all over us. To be fair UKIP did try and recruit a member of the silver spoon in mouth party, William Legge son of Acid Raine, the step mum of Diana Spencer. But like Universities I guess there are silver spoons and silver spoons!

Stuff the Greeks, save the French banks and Sarkozy

2011-09-26T04:00:00.000-07:00

The latest rescue package figure plucked out of nowhere is €3 trillion that is €3000000000. No mention of who is going to pay this vast sum. Well Madame Lagarde, the next president of France after Sarky, will ensure that the UK gets stuck for its share. This is not about saving the poor Greeks. Its about ensuring those French Banks who lent them the money get repaid and don't have to go to the French state for the money. Its all going to come from the ECB printing press and Robert Mugabe will be advising how to do it.

The other part of this wonder package is to allow the Greeks to selectively default about 50% of their bonds. Who chooses who gets paid and who does not? Madame Lagarde again and its a rock solid certainty that top of the list will be the French banks! Its certain to generate legal action from those not repaid but of course the European Court will be fixed. I do not think these bonds were written under English common law so no chance of a fair and decent judgement.

Do you remember how 3 years ago, in the middle of our bank crisis, the EU and their LibDem fellow travellers were smugly saying how it was all the fault of the Anglo Saxon banking system and we should copy their system with Spain being held up as an example to follow. Where is Spain now? Fourth in the queue with a very large begging bowl.

I wrote previously how the Anglo Saxon banks coped with the Russian debt default in 1998. Guess who is now pressuring the EU for some semblance of action? That's right these big bad Anglo Saxons again.

Is a pity wee George was so quick to unilaterally accept John Vickers gold plated bank reserve requirements. HSBC and Standard Charterered will almost certainly shift out of the City if these recommendations are implemented with a huge loss of jobs and business to the UK. With leaders like ours who needs enemies?

But Greece is still to stay in the Euro and presumably sink further into the mire until eventually either the Communists or the Military take it over. The only solution is for Germany and its satellites to leave the Euro and form a Deutsch Mark zone hopefully without the French who could then get on with running the and paying for the Club Med Euro which would fall dramatically on the FX market and restore economic activity in the Club Med including France. They would still use the Euro and would eventually be able to repay their debts in this devalued currency according to the tried and tested IMF recipe.

As for Germany, Europe's chief miser, they would have to increase their public spending and boost demand in the Father.land which is exactly what world trade needs! A win- win situation!

UKIP needs to follow the proven strategy to get MPs

2011-09-23T03:51:00.000-07:00

When I was attacked by Duffy on the NEC with allegations I had a hidden agenda. I replied to her insolence that I had only ever had one agenda, to get the UK out of the EU in my lifetime. The silence was deafening and I well remember the look of horror on Farage's face. I waited for someone to say that's the agenda of us all but it never came. Farage's agenda is to stay on the EU gravy train as long as possible and maximise the EU loot he can trouser.

If UKIP wants the UK out of the EU that can only happen in one place and in one way, the House of Commons must repeal the 1972 European Communities Act. Such a Repeal Bill has already been tabled by Philip Hollobone, Tory MP for Kettering and is due for its second reading on 20th Jan 2012. What can UKIP do to assist the passage of this bill which would deliver their core aim. Precisely nothing because they have no MPs! Many will speak in support of Mr Hollobone's bill but not UKIP MPs. The awful truth the loyal UKIP membership has to face up to is that their chosen leader Nigel Farage does not wish the UK to leave the EU. He wants to continue taking the EU's Euros for himself and to pay the Cabal to say nothing of the huge EU pension that will eventually come his way. He wants to continue to bask in the cheap publicity of slagging off Barroso or Rumpy or Frumpy and appearing on QT and AQ . Sorry poor UKIP members but you have been well and truly had!

I sometimes read the comments in the UKIP section of democracy forum with some amusement. Click on link to read the whole thread. The orginator complains,

"The only time we seem to hear anything from UKIP is just before the EU elections when we see Mr Farage giving one of his speeches and then once elected its all quiet until next EU elections.
Which way did UKIP MEPs vote on expenses for example?"

Its a very good question and the answer is that's where the money is for Nigel and his chums!

Another comment by a different person on the same thread,

"Yeah there doesn't seem to much in the way of activity. It's like a part-time things. The website is updated about once a week and the policy page is still a mess imo."

At the NEC I caused uproar by asking why we were sending MEPs to Brussels? What were they achieving there? Would they not better further our leave the EU cause by staying in the UK and work there to get District and County Councillors elected in target areas to build up some UK support bases that would give us a chance at winning UK parliamentary elections? The Greens did this recently in Brighton and the LibDems have followed this strategy to get them for 4 or 5 MPs in the 80s to the 50+ they have now and oh yes they now govern the UK with their Tory fellow travellers.

That is the proven strategy that UKIP should have been following since its inception.but its hard work, there is no EU sized money in it and no national publicity so it does not appeal to Mr Farage and his chums. Parliamentary constituencies are built up of County and District Council wards. Win enough wards, establish your credibility in running District or County councils and you eventually get MPs elected. . Prat around on one off publicity stunts like Farage gets you nowhere except into plane crashes!

I stood for the UKIP SW MEP list mainly to reduce the Fargistas on the SW slate by one. My election address is still on by website www.ericedmond.com At the hustings I stated that if eventually elected I would give my entire MEP salary to UKIP, go to Brussels as little as possible, travel the country and work my socks off in the UK with UKIP's great activists and lobby every media editor incessantly to get as much publicity in the UK for our cause. I also stated I would donate my entire MEP after tax salary to UKIP. This upset Gawain Towler a long time associate of Farage. He thought this was an underhand tactic on my part! Well it would have given UKIP a certain £250000! I see nothing underhand in that. What has William Legge given to UKIP during his UKIP MEP tenure? Or an easier question how much will Bannerman give to UKIP? Both Legge and Bannerman were strong Farage supporters. How much has Farage himself given to UKIP? Not a lot in all three cases I opine. Yet these are the same people who ask hard up OAPs to cough up their money for UKIP! How sickening.

Motivated unpaid activists working to the strategy above our cause can succeed. Career paid politicians particularly old Tories like Neil Hamilton with a lot of baggage or juveniles driven by self interest and desire for a 'political career' will do nothing to get us out of the EU. Ours is a cause not a career path for those who lack the talent for success in proper jobs.

Right now the EU is weaker than it ever has been since its inception. There is a head of steam building up in Westminster for at least a partial reduction in EU governance of our country. The numbers of Tories supporting this will worry Cameron. Think how much more worried he would be if there were UKIP MP's in the Commons articulating our cause! Look at the influence and control 50 LibDems have over 300 frustrated Tories. Where are UKIP's leaders? In the bars and restaurants of Brussels. There won't be any crucial parliamentary votes there Nigel!

Greeks, your Euro end is nigh!

2011-09-17T12:05:00.000-07:00

I opined a few weeks ago that I expected the crunch to come for the Euro around mid September. Well the ides of September has come and the US Treasury Sec Geithner rode into town and told the Europeans to stop arguing and do something at an internal Eurozone meeting. That is bad enough but when you put it together with the concerted action by the five main central banks to supply dollar liquidity on demand then you know things are pretty bad. The problem with this latter operation is to get sufficient eligible collateral into the settlement system for the central banks to lend dollars that the market won't supply because it fears banks going bust and their money disappearing.

There is of course no high quality or even low quality bond collateral left. All there is is the dross of PIGS' paper which the ECB in desperation have been buying outright. They did this with Greece but lost their nerve when the market continued to fall. Greek 10 year bond rates are now at 23.6%! The ECB have also been buying huge quantities of Italian and Spanish bonds but I suspect they are losing their nerve there also. Italians 10 years are at 5.65% and Spanish at 5.34% despite the ECB spening over 100 bn€ buying them!

Before wee George and Dave congratulate themselves UK gilts are starting to weaken as the market realises the dire straits the UK economy is in. Reuters reports it thus,

"Lagarde recently warned that the egos of world leaders are putting the global economy at risk. This is a nice way of saying that none of the leaders of the G-20, elected or not, are in the mood to take the risk themselves of publicly confessing to the true scale of the problem of excess debt and shrinking demand facing each nation. But as Geithner goes to the EU to preach tough love to his European counterparts, he leaves a lot of unfinished business at home."

All we are getting is hot air. The longer it goes on the worse things will be. Greece should have ben allowed to default months ago. Now the cancer is spreading throughout the Eurozone. The German ECB chief economist Juergen Stark jumped ship last week following German ECB board memeber Axel Webber. As always its the poor that will pay

Vickers & more Lib Dem duplicity

2011-09-13T05:15:00.000-07:00

I was acquainted with John Vickers at the Bank of England where he had become chief economist in succession to the now disastrous Governor Mervyn King. (Ask Alastair Darling!) Like King, Vickers is a very clever man but his expertise is in competetion economics not banking. Like King he is not ,and never will be a banker and his report if implemented will be a disaster for UK bank customers, personal and commercial as well as deeply and permanently damaging the City of London.

Vickers report simply gold plates what is already happening through the BIS. As with UK civil servants gold plating EU regulations Vickers ensures the UK will end up worse of than its banking competitors.in the US, EU and Far East with a resulting huge loss of jobs in the City of London. Economists should not be involved in banking decisions. That was the unanimous view in the City by those who have to do the business. City economists are for PR like boy Dave.

The problem with economists is they have never had to run any operation at a profit. I remember talking to a multi-national city bank advised by a big name economist. I asked what input this economist had into their decisions. There were derisive hoots of laughter. None was the reply. When we have to take serious decisions we kick him out. Osborne should kick Vickers report into the long grass asap and await the BIS internationally agreed rules which the US investment bankers will have a huge and sensible part in formulating

There is nothing more sick making than watching the three main UK political parties uniting to give their whipping boy a good kicking. This is of course to divert public attenetion from their own incompetence and corruption. Its a bit like the old Bernard Manning joke about we should all love each other and get together to give a certain ethnic group a good kicking.

Loudest in demanding prompt action on Vickers are of course the LibDems. Strange they are so silent on demanding prompt action on the recommendations of the Boundary Review Commission something which is of course an integral part of their coaliion agreement with boy Dave. Lets defer this reorganisation until after the next election say the Lib Dems feeling for their seats. Sickening from a yellow party.

Its the student fee betrayal all over again with deja vu! It reminds me of one of my Dad's old jokes about Communism. A left wing mining trade union official was being interviwed on sharing wealth. It went a bit like this.

Q: So if you had two houses you would give one to me if I had none.?

A Yes

Q So if you had two cars and I had none you would give one to me?

A Of course

Q So if you had two dogs and I had none you would give me one?

A. Well lets not be too hasty. I have two dogs!

That is exactly the Lib Dem position, generous with other peoples assets but stingy with their own. They are neither Liberal or Democratic and indeed have said they will use their unelected members of the House of Lords to block this clearly democratic proposal. They are all hypocrites of the worst sort.

The Tories shelter behind them whenever any anti- EU proposal comes up. We can't support it because of our yelow coaltion partners say the yellow Tories of whom there are many.

I will opine on the Eurozone problems soon. Its a slow motion car crash that gets worse with each passing day.

UKIP Conference assessed

2011-09-11T12:10:00.000-07:00

I did not go to this event. Like Mr Allen, a moderator on Buthcher's forum not unfriendly to UKIP I found the list of speakers pretty dreadful for a nationalist party. I did not listen to Mr Farage's speech as they are always the same.

How many attended? The BBC report click on link to read put the number at 400 to 500, roughly half that claimed by the increasingly unbelievable Mr Crowther.

The BBC quoted UKIP's founder Alan Sked, who wrote to the The Times to say: "UKIP has been fooling its voters and members for far too long. Its third-rate leaders, propagandists and MEPs all need to be sacked and the party re-established.". The deputy political editor of the Independent on the Friday Daily Politics show commented in similar vein on the low quality of UKIP's leadership citing Malcolm Pearson who went on the UKIP conference Daily Politics show last year admitting he did not know what was in the party manifesto! Unbelievable in any other political party other than UKIP.

The most depressing thing from my viewpoint was the inclusion of Neil Hamilton the former MP disgraced over his alleged involvement in the cash for questions scandal as a platform speaker and NEC candidate. It is reported he now describes himself as whiter than white. Some mistake surely. It was the Independent man in the White suit who defeated Hamilton in the 97 General Election overturning one of the biggest Tory majorities in the country.

It merely adds to UKIP's list of Tory rejects, Gill, Bannerman and now Hamilton. The serious point is that UKIP can never be more than a Tory pressure group with such ex-Tories involved.

Alan Sked made this point many years ago on leaving Farage's EUKIP a party Sked detested. As I opined recently UKIP has to be a clean centre ground party to make real progress and win MPs. Marta Andreasen had her stall in the foyer and has already called for Nigel Farage to resign over the local election fiasco.

As the BBC journo described UKIP,, " the bickering group that numbers council election gains in single figures, despite a knack for attracting television personalities of a certain age?" To which I would add defunct Tories and wannabe juveniles both of little talent

Farage's Pan European Panzers invade Eastbourne

2011-09-07T14:18:00.000-07:00

Captain Mannering and CS Foyle where are you now? Your country needs you to defend it on your home patch. Dover for the continent, Eastbourne for the incontinent as Geoffrey Collier said to me recently, to which I now add Eastbourne for the deluded EU reformists and placemen.

One look at the list of invited EU reformist speakers and Farage Youth makes clear Nigel Farage's intends to press on at all costs with his Pan European UKIP party despite the vote against it at conference last year and its recent two to one rejection.in a party wide referendum. Money always trumps principle for Mr Farage. Its a clear EU bribe to sabotage UKIP's core purpose and policy. Does Mr Farage care? Of course not. Its money that counts and can be counted. As St Paul wrote 'The love of money is the root of all evil'.

Farage appointee and placeman Chairman Crowther says, "I'm particularly pleased that we have guests coming from Finland, France, the Netherlands, the Czech Republic, Croatia and Iceland.". Look at the list of named speakers for conference, exclude Farage and Farage supporting MEPs Batten, Bloom and Nuttall and five clear groups emerge as dominant.

First the motley group of 4 mid-European EU reformists to help NF's Pan European party

Second some dodgy ex-media types.

Third the usual quota of ex or failed Tories. Neil Hamilton the disgraced and defeated former Tory stands out

Fourth around six representatives of nutty special interest groups to help the UKIP fruit case and loonie image.

Fifth, and the largest, a group of early twenties students from the Farage youth wing whom a Google search shows as Farage sycophants clearly seeking to get on the Brussels gravy train.

This list redefines the word stellar as used by Crowther to describe the speakers in the UKIP blurb. Dross might be a better description.

Under represented to the point of invisibility are the ordinary UKIP chairman and members who have got the party its electoral success by their hard work in the last two European elections.

Its the last group that worries me most. A group of young impressionable youth from lesser universities and educational institutions clearly owing allegiance to the leader and seeking preferment in Brussels from the great leader. Now what group in the 1930s does that description fit?

In the true EU tradition which EUKIP has adopted Farage simply intends to ignore the two to one vote of the members against turning UKIP into a Pan European party. He will press on and my guess is force it through the NEC which his placemen dominate as party policy. Even the recently much abused Mr Denny may have to toe the line or suffer yet more abuse. What times we live in

For those disconnected from UKIP I give the complete Farage support cast below

Friday morning, September 9

UKIP Councillors & Strategy for 2015
Neil Hamilton, Sunday Express columnist
Patrick O'Flynn, Daily Express chief political commentator
Barry Madlener MEP, Dutch Freedom Party
Timo Soini MP, Leader, True Finns Party
Nigel Farage MEP

Friday afternoon

Nicolas Dupont-Aignan MP, French DLR Party
Prof Tim Congdon, Dr Peter Mach and Godfrey Bloom
Jon Gaunt, CEO, EU Referendum Campaign
Gerard Batten MEP
Alex Singleton, former Daily Telegraph leader-writer
Paul Doyle on Defence
Michael Heaver on Education
Robert Elliott on Long Term Care
Andrew Charalambous on Housing
Eddie Bone, CEP
Paul Nuttall and Tim Aker (Policy Review)

Saturday morning, September 10

John Tennant, European Parliament
Harry Aldridge, YI Chairman
Tom Booker, Steve Fowler and Sean Howlett (YI)
James Moyies on Branch Revival
David Coburn and London 2012 Team
Steven Woolfe, City of London Campaign
Bill Etheridge, Campaign Against Political Correctness
Inez Ward, Justice for Licensees Campaign
Joe Rukin, Anti-HS2 Campaign
Ben Pile, Fighting the Turbines Campaign

UKIP should follow Scottish Tories and disband

2011-09-04T03:13:00.000-07:00

Today's Sunday Telegraph story on the above quoting the Scottish Tories likely new leader, Murdo Fraser was the best example of political leadership I can remember. Mr Fraser has looked at the Tory performance in Scotland and come to the rational conclusion supported by the evidence that North of the border the Tories are finished and has the courage to act on his beliefs. I quote from the ST below.

Murdo Fraser, who is favourite to become leader of the Scottish Conservative and Unionist Party, will announce that he plans to wind up the party if he wins a ballot of members next month.

He would follow disbanding the party by launching a new Right-of-centre party that would contest all Scottish elections — council, Scottish Parliament and Westminster.

Mr Fraser, a member of the Scottish Parliament, believes the Conservatives have become a “toxic brand” in Scotland since losing all 11 of their Commons seats in the 1997 Labour landslide.

UKIP needs to do the same and recognise its total electoral failure in the only elections that can lead to the UK leaving the EU, the Westminster elections! UKIP is currently the problem in making progress on this core issue and is not and never can be even part of the solution.

Its name in the blogosphere of EUKIP is well merited. Its leadership has been bribed by EU money and flattery into Brussels based EU supporters and much, much worse blocking the development of a real leave the EU party in the UK. It is irretrievably dominated by the same old toxic Tories, Pearson, Gill, Farage etc that the Scots Tory leader elect recognises as an insurmountable barrier to winning MPs in Scotland. And look at UKIP's latest recruit and star conference speaker, Neil Hamilton! A man who pre-dates the recent expenses with cash for questions, hospitality freebies etc long before duck houses became fashionable and Tory sleaze helped win the election for Blair.

Tim Congdon, one of the leaders in the No vote campaign against Farage's pan Europe party is also down to speak at the UKIP conference sharing a platform with Bloom who is alleged already to have signed up to a Pan Europe party and a Czech EU reformist called Mach whom I have never heard of. Tim's political compass needs looking at. If he wants out of the EU he should keep well away from these EU, mid European apologists.

UKIP can rid itself of these toxic, unreconstructed old Tories only by disbanding and immediately reforming as broad based centrist anti EU party ie a party that could win Westminster seats like the Greens. This is the best and only contribution EUKIP can make to getting us out of the EU. The people are there to do it. Nikki Sinclaire, Mike Natrass, Trevor Colman and John Bufton. UKIP's NEC is simply a Farage rubber stamp group of mushrooms. Kept in the dark and fed plenty of shit. Batten is politically spineless against Farage and Andreasen is the Monet dream made flesh.

It is down to those 4 MEPs to show some leadership. What have they to lose? Farage will never allow them to go on any UKIP MEP slate again. That is of course the real reason Bannerman jumped ship to the Tories. It had nothing to do with his profound admiration of EU phile boy Dave. As soon as he stood against Farage for the leadership he was toast. He knew that as does anyone who knows Farage. Look at what has happened to the others who have stood against Farage in leadership contests.

Its a pity Tim Congdon lacks a political sense. As one ministers PPS once said to me that its like a sixth sense and if you don't have it you will never succeed in politics. Del Young has it big time. That is why he had to be marginalised and got rid off. Tim would be better off taking Del's advice than Batten's or Steve Allison. Both think they will be allowed onto the UKIP MEP slate in 2014. Knowing Farage, if he is still leader, I would not bet on either Batten or Allison appearing higher than 10, if at all, on any regional MEP slate.

What is going on with Eurobond rates

2011-09-02T14:39:00.000-07:00

A BBC type was warbling on this morning about how successful the EU had been in reducing PIGS' bond rates. I update my table of 10 year bond rates below:

            11th July             15th July 18th July               16th August     2nd Sept

Greece 17.19% (14.52) 17.71% (15.02) 18.23% (15.57)   15.51 (13.18) 18.28(16.18)

Ireland   13.62% (10.96) 14.27% (11.58) 14.45% (11.79)   10.18 (7.85)     8.73(6.63)

Portugal13.28% (10.61) 12.93% (10.24) 12.84% (10.18) 10.90 (8.57)    10.50(8.40)

Spain        6.08% (3.41) 6.07% (3.38)    6.32% (3.67)    5.02 (2.69)      5.10(3.00)

Italy          5.72% (3.05)    5.77% (3.09)    5.99% (3.34)       5.04 (2.70)      5.20(3.10)

Well other than Greece the BBC type has a prima facie case but how was this achieved and at what cost? If you note from the above table Italy is now seen as riskier than Spain whereas two months ago it was the opposite. I suspect the reason is that there is a much bigger volume of Italian bonds than Spanish in the market. The ECB under political pressure has possibly been buying Italian and Spanish bonds in equal amounts so the relative effect on Spanish bonds has been greater.

Clearly the market likes what Ireland is doing and to a lesser extent Portugal. Both these countries have implemented austerity programmes credible to the markets. But the Italian and Spanish situation is dependent on the ECB continuing to buy up their paper already in the market. How much has the ECB spent doing this is a closely guarded secret but I guess its something well North of 100bn€, something that goes down badly in Germany.

The Italian 10 year bond auction on Tuesday this week showed how little appetite there is for further Italian paper. The Italians sold 7.74€bn at a rate of 5.22%. The ECB had to go into to the market after the auction to stabilise the rate and the general feeling is the ECB will now concentrate on buying Italian bonds of which there is a huge amount out there.

The crunch however will come in Germany. Merkel's government could easily fall and if so all bets are off.

End game for the Eurozone

2011-08-29T14:52:00.000-07:00

As I have pointed out before putting together two separate pieces from even the same newspaper can yield some interesting results.

Euro bail-out in doubt as hysteria sweeps Germany was the page 1 headline on today's business DT. The article catalogues the likely disintegration of Dr Frau Merkel's coalition government with smaller parties and even members of Merkel's own CDU party very unhappy with Germany having to pay such huge sums to bail out the PIGS. They are even more unhappy with their complete lack of democratic control over the EU and ECB.

The article ends, 'The next month will decide her (Merkel's) future, Germany's destiny and the fate of monetary union.' That really says it all!

The real seriousness of the situation emerges on reading Tim Congdon's piece also in the today's business DT entitled, "Britain can easily weather a eurozone break-up if it lays off its lenders". As always Tim is concerned with the strength of bank's balance sheets in current circumstances, the break up of the Eurozone and the resulting sovereign debt defaults which could leave many banks in the EU bust.

Sovereign debt is the ultimate asset underpinning our banking system. A sovereign default is very serious but it can be managed as happened with the huge Russian debt default of 1998 involving 168$bn of debt. It never made the headlines which was probably a good thing but was potentially very serious for the UK through the activities of the LTCM hedge fund. You probably never heard of it because the major investment banks got together and 'fixed' it but boy it could have been catastrophic.

In fact between 1998 and 2005: Russia, Ukraine, Pakistan, Ecuador, Argentina, Moldova, and Uruguay. all defaulted and the world continued to function. These countries devalued, cut public spending had their debt restructured and followed the IMF prescription which works.

So what is different today? Well the banks are not what they were and politicians desperately seeking re-election are involved and have taken things out of the bank's hands. Now I am no fan of rapacious bankers but they are generally talented people who do understand banking. Politicians on the other hand as Napoleon observed are generally of low intellect and understand very little about anything except their own self interest. This is what is behind Tim's plea to lay off the banks. Be assured our politicians and EU crats won't! They cannot resist meddling. There will be endless conferences, announced plans media appearances and sound bites. Just what politicians love.

This is what makes the current Eurozone situation really dangerous. We have a bunch of unreconstructed Soviet style apparatchiks like Barroso in charge of a capitalist system in deep trouble. I expect a full blown financial crisis by mid September with a huge amount of hot air from Brussels.

Derek Hunnikin's UKIP papers

2011-08-27T03:53:00.000-07:00

Derek Hunnikin joined UKIP in 1995 twelve years before I did. He sent me a series of documents detailing the unsavoury history of UKIP's hierarchy from 1995 to date. His email address is

derekhunnikin@btinternet.com

I urge all interested in UKIP's fate to email Derek requesting a copy of his dossier.

I have never met Mike Nattrass and I know nothing of his views. I think UKIP's best hope lies with Nikki Sinclaire, whom I have met, and who has been very active with her referendum campaign. I know some of her other political views do not play well with some of UKIP's core support but I urge them to concentrate on the big issue of leaving the EU and not be beguiled by a sterile left wing right wing argument. One of the most effective and articulate opponents of the EU in the UK is Bob Crow, the far left, rail worker's leader!

One of the most telling comments in the dossier came from Robin Page who makes the point he was voted onto the governing body of the National Trust against the wishes of the NT establishment only after the NT started using the Electoral Reform Society to conduct is ballots. On the NEC I fought for UKIP to use the ERS for all UKIP elections.I was bad mouthed by Farage, Whittaker, Derek Clarke, Denny etc who clearly had their own agenda in these matters and deliberately mis-represented the service the ERS offered at a very competitive price..

I publish below the reply I have sent to Derek based on my own experience.

Dear Derek,

Thank you very much for sending me copies of the above. It must have taken a great deal of time and effort on your part to do this and I wholeheartedly thank you for this. I read all your documents and learned a great deal from them as I only joined UKIP in 2007!

I had worked for the UK government in the period 71/73 when Heath pushed through the Common Market Accession Act with a succession of dirty tricks. I thought then when I resigned from the Civil Service I had seen it all, that was until I met Nigel Farage!

Looking at the latest list of those standing for the NEC my heart sinks. Farage supporters and wannabe MEPs predominate.

Tim Congdon is a good man and excellent academic economist but lacks the ability to talk to ordinary people. Gerard Batten turns to jelly when opposed by Farage. John Bufton is ill and I doubt Trevor Colman wants to stand again given the villification he has had from SW committee members. William Legge, the belted Earl, is another Bannerman. He simply wants a political career after the Tories had multiply rejected him. Worse, his paid 'minder' is Malcolm Wood a long term associate of Farage who shares many of Farage's characteristics.

I am sorry I have not been more help to you but my energies have been diverted to helping my wife and her French property these last six months. I agree with most of your sentiments and views on UKIP.

UKIP is the only political party I have ever been a member of and through it I met many fine people whom I still count as my friends. It is sad, but not surprising, to realise from your dossier that my UKIP experience merely repeated the experiences of those who had gone before and that if by chance in future any non - Farage supporter is elected onto the NEC list or MEP list I fear they will suffer the same fate!

I was elected both to the NEC and MEP SW slate on the democratic vote of UKIP members. UKIP is not a democratic party but a Farage cult and hence can never have any impact on UK politics

Regards

Eric Edmond

Farage's chosen prosecutor for my fictitious damaging of UKIP was Bannerman. I am still a paid up member and supporter of UKIP. We all know where Bannerman now sits in adoration of his new found political hero and hoped for political patron David Cameron. So tell me Mr Farage who was the traitor in UKIP and who the unjustly prosecuted honest supporter wrongly removed from the NEC and MEP slate at your instigation? .

DT Business pick up my point on who pays Sarky's Tobin tax

2011-08-20T03:02:00.000-07:00

That's right, its you! Just watch Dave and George roll over like typical Tories.

I will be incommunicado for a while but rest assured I will return God willing.

Sarkozy & Merkel want your cash and your job to pay the PIGS

2011-08-18T10:16:00.000-07:00

The only concrete proposal to emerge from the latest Sarky Merkel meeting was for an EU wide Tobin tax on all financial transactions. Where do most big financial transactions take place in the EU? The City of London which is not even in the Eurozone!

Its a wonderful bit of political chicanery. Tax those who cannot vote you out of power! A Tobin tax is an old favourite of the French as it reduces the City of London's competitive advantage and thus enhances the business prospects of Paris and Frankfurt as financial centres. What will Dave and boy George do to resist this latest attack on the City by the EU? They could veto it but I doubt they have the guts so I guess as usual they will do nowt and just pay up inn Euros and jobs.

Sarkozy pulled a similar trick 3 months ago by putting an additional tax on holiday homes just after my wife bought herself a house in Brittany. Now the vast majority, 80% plus of holiday homes in France are owned by the French who vote in French elections.. Sarky has therefore decreed they will not be liable for this tax which will only apply to non-French owned holiday homes. All of course against the EU rules but what are they there for but for the French, Italians, Spanish etc to ignore when it suits them. Only the Brits obey the rules proving they are really stupid.

Mean while the ECB continues to buy PIGS paper with newly minted money so now Italian and Spanish 10 year bond rates are 4.99%. But as the actress said to the bishop things have to pop out somewhere in this case the Euro money supply and resultant inflation something not lost on Merkel's German coalition partners.

I congratulate all UKIP members who vote against Farage's pan European party proposal but do not think you have won this war. Farage will be back with honeyed words about allowing UKIP MEPs to join with mid European racists and fascists into a pan European party is necessary for Nigel to speak with a strong voice in Brussels as the Foreign Office like to say. I also say F. O. to these Farage's tales.

This will be accompanied by threats of resignation at the party conference and to the 100% Farage controlled NEC and of course tales of party bankruptcy. Now who banrkupted UKIP? Answers on the comments section of my blog please.

Another week, another Sarky Merkel eurozone crisis meeting

2011-08-16T04:24:00.000-07:00

It must have dawned by now on the Eurocrats that the markets are not buying any stop gap sticking plaster solutions. The only organisation buying right now is the ECB, that supposedly independent central bank, acting on the orders of its political masters bought €22 bn. of PIGS bonds last week to add to the previous weeks purchase of €16.5 bn. As Dubya used to say a billion here a billion there and soon you are talking real money.

Has this reduced PIGS bond yields? Yes it has. I update my little table below with today's yields.

            8th July                11th July             15th July 18th July               16th August

Greece 17.04% (14.20) 17.19% (14.52) 17.71% (15.02) 18.23% (15.57)   15.51 (13.18)

Ireland   13.13% (10.29) 13.62% (10.96) 14.27% (11.58) 14.45% (11.79)   10.18 (7.85)

Portugal 13.05% (10.21) 13.28% (10.61) 12.93% (10.24) 12.84% (10.18) 10.90 (8.57)

Spain         5.69% (2.85)    6.08% (3.41) 6.07% (3.38)    6.32% (3.67)    5.02 (2.69)

Italy           5.28% (2.45)    5.72% (3.05)    5.77% (3.09)    5.99% (3.34)       5.04 (2.70)

So PIGS 10 year bond yield have dropped by 1% for Italy to 4.5% for Ireland. This of course means the price of these bonds have all risen and the ECB has been paying this increased price. Very nice for banks with large holdings of PIGS paper like say French banks. A nominal 100€ bond that would have been marked to market on their books at say 90€ they can now sell to the ECB for say 93€ a huge change for long dated bonds held on carry trades. The banks are shot of these dodgy mainly long dated bonds and have lots more Euros to waste on their next whizzo investment idea. The banks will have shortened the maturity of their Euro sovereign portfolio and will I bet be reducing maturities over two years to as close to zero as they can manage.

Now if you listen to the BBC economists this has reduced the financing cost to the PIGS. This is not true. The financing cost to the PIGS was set when the bond was issued so the real test will be when the PIGS go back to the market to refinance their maturing paper. Now if the ECB then still is happily buying PIG bonds at the rate of €20 bn a week, no problemo as Barroso says. The snag is the ECB will have to stop sometime if only when inflation rockets and then I opine the PIGS bond yields will also rocket once more. Still the French banks will have their money and the risk and losses will have been transferred to those who finance the ECB, that's right the Germans! Its the old privatise profits and nationalise losses political trick which only a return to the gold standard will ever stop. Thanks Gordon for selling our gold at $275 per ounce, current price circa $1800 per ounce. Pure genius as the Guiness advert says.

Many good pieces have been written this last week about how the world ended up in this mess Bretton Woods and all. The French of course sabotaged this during the sixties by de Gaulle presenting every French dollar to the US Treasury for one ounce of gold at $35 per ounce. This forced Nixon off the dollar gold standard in 1971. A great triumph for the French over the hated Anglo Saxons but a strategic catastrophe for the world.

I look forward to reading what Merkel and Sarkozy will announce with great splendour and then watching it unravel on Thursday in the money markets. Incidentally the press communique will already have been written. before Merkel sets foot in France. The visit is only for the snappers front page pics!

It is as I opined some time ago the collision between politicians desire and need to be relected domestically and the EU crats desire for a United States of Europe that will bring the whole Eurozone edifice crashing down. Merkel is in deep political trouble in Germany. Her coalition is unravelling. The EU and the Euro are very unpopular in Germany. Sarky also has an election to win in France next year but following DSK's litte trouser problem le petit Napoleon should triumph at the polls once more. A good communique today on the lines Sarky saves Europe once more would of course help.

PS French and UK bonds used to trade at roughly the same spread to bunds. Now the French spread has blown out to 64 basis points with the UK coming in to 20 basis points. The French costs of the bail out plus public sector pension liabilities are starting to hit the French credit rating. Interesting.

Del Young's emails have also been hacked

2011-08-14T12:42:00.000-07:00

I wrote earlier this week about how my email system had been hacked and as a result I had received some silly replies from well known South West Faragistas. I spoke to Del Young at the end of the week and he recounted a similar tale. His emails had been hacked. His address book had been stolen and he was similarly puzzled as to why anyone should bother to do this.

The first common factor between Del and me is we both were elected and served on UKIP's NEC. Del had previously, as I wrote, received telephone death threats which he reported to the police but no one was ever prosecuted although it seems the culprits were traced. The second common factor between us is that while on the NEC we opposed some of Mr Farage's proposals as not advancing our core policy to get out of the EU.

I do not believe in coincidence but I know smearing opponents is an all too common and despicable tactic in UK politics. Del Young, David Abbott and myself have only ever stood up for UKIP's leave the EU policy. That UKIP's leadership now seems intent on joining a Pan European, EU sponsored party is a matter of deep regret to us and many other UKIP members and ex-members. I hope it fails and UKIP returns to its core values.

Europe in Crisis

2011-08-10T13:37:00.000-07:00

The above is the title on AEP's piece in today's DT business which broadly covers the same points I made in my blog yesterday. He quotes the German economics Professor Grossman as saying, "The debt crisis will be resolved through higher inflation.That will hurt everybody and raise the borrowing costs for Germany". Hissing Sid Issing, former chief economist at the Bundesbank said, "the EMU project is spinning out of control".

"Far from evolving into an authentic fiscal union controlled by a European parliament elected according to democratic principles it is turning into a deformed creature where moral hazard is unchecked and the EU is intruding on sovereign matters". All pretty much the points I made yesterday.

"By subverting the no bail out clause the EU is drowning hitherto solid countries in over-indebtness" Its exactly the same as the UK banking crisis where a solid retail bank, Lloyds, was encouraged by Brown for short term political expediency, the Glenrothes by-election, to take over an indebted bank, HBOS turning Llyods into a basket case as well.

The markets realised today this is what is happening to France with its huge holdings of PIGS debt and huge commitment to underwrite the EU stability fund. Hence the sell off particularly in French bank shares and Sarky having to cut short his holiday.

AEP writes, 'Berlusconi lashed out at the EU after a leaked letter showed how the ECB had dictated the exact details of Rome's new austerity policies as a condition for ECB Italian bond purchases'

Berlusconi told the Italian paper Il Messagero, 'They make us look like an occupied government. They bought the bonds to save themselves not Italy'. Exactly! That is the quid pro quo I referred to yesterday and Berlusconi now realises they are ruled by Germany. The markets rightly see France as a busted flush with worse economic fundamentals than the recently downgraded US.

The King of Threadneedle Street was today backtracking on his growth forecasts inflation forecasts and recanting on his inflation targeting remit. Not surprising then the FTSE took a dive.

Plenty of hot air is forecast for Westminster tomorrow.

Euro on the cusp

2011-08-09T11:14:00.000-07:00

I underestimated the lengths the EU would go to preserve their sacred Euro. Forcing the ECB to buy up huge quantities of Spanish and Italian bonds, up to €200 bn, is a high risk strategy. Trichet is not keen on this and it shows clearly the ECB is not an independent central bank like the Bundesbank but is subject to political control from Brussels. This truthful exposure will not go down well with the Germans who hate inflation after they suffered a total wipe out of their currency and savings in 1928 and 1945 at the hands of politicians. There is no way you can pump that amount of liquidity into Euroland without dramatically increasing inflation. That is a solution beloved of politicians since the days of Rome as it enables them to pay off debts in a devalued and debauched currency.

The person who will pay the political price for this is Dr Frau Merkel and the financial bill will have to paid by the German people already enraged at the loss of their beloved Bundesbank for a mess of pottage or should I say ravioli and moussaka. Merkel is now n the same position as John Major after sterling got kicked out of the ERM in 92. She has joined the walking dead!

The EU solution as articulated by the German Finance minister is more Europe. The French are jolly keen on this as it increases their power and the Germans again pay. There is a funny cartoon in Private Eye in which Biggles says to von Richthofen, " You will pay for this" and von R. replies, "Ve Germans always pay". Well I am not so sure Fritz is going to stump up again this time without a very big quid pro quo.

As the FT put it today, "A single currency can only survive if its political foundations offer coherence. The crisis suggests that, in the absence of further reforms, the euro simply lacks the appropriate underpinnings." Stephen King who wrote the FT piece then goes on to point out how the Rouble area fell apart after the break up of the Soviet Union. That is the other part of the bicuspid that the EU now finds itself on, the break up of the Eurozone.

King finishes, " If the euro is not to share the rouble’s fate, its member nations will have to agree on a lot more than just the level of interest rates. They will also have to create a fiscal framework that allows for cross border transfers, resolves conflicts between creditors and debtors and supports the Bostonian principle of no taxation without representation”. A neat point but who in the EU represents the tax payers? Not the Eurocrats or MEPs for sure. The problem is the EU does not do democracy. It does elitism.

And therein lies the seeds of the next crisis. Just as the seeds of WWII lay in the resentment of the German undefeated army in 1918 so the seeds of the next Euro crisis will be the resentment of the German people having to transfer their taxes to fund the PIGS and if the German's as I expect demand control of the PIGS's tax systems, the resentment of the PIGS populace against their perceived German overlords. Rather than stopping European conflicts the EU may be creating the next one!

Local LibDems notice Nigel's nasty EDF associates

2011-08-08T04:33:00.000-07:00

First I must apologise to those who received spam emails purporting to come from me. I did not originate these. My email account was hacked into about 5 days ago whilst I was in France and my email address book stolen. I did not think I was worth hacking but obviously someone does.

The interesting thing was the responses I received from those who received this obvious spam. Most people realised my email account had been hacked and replied warning me about this. The dyed in the wool Farage supporters in the South West however reacted differently. Jeff Mager who asked me to remove his name from my address book but Jon Kelly's reply is so priceless I reproduce it below:

Eric

Are you crazy?

Why are you sending me this shit?

Didn't you know Piers Merchant is dead?

John Kelly

Mr Kelly shows the true intelligence and talent required of a loyal Faragista.

More seriously on my return I glanced at the reader's letters page of our local weekly Western Gazette to see a letter from a local Lib Dem District Councillor, Jon Gleeson asking how UKIP MEP William Legge, aka the Earl of Dartmouth, can sit in the EFD group with Mario Borgheze the Italian MEP who admires the ideas of Norwegian mass murderer Anders Breivek. Mr Gleeson writes,

"I invite Mr Dartmouth to use this opportunity to leave the EFD group or to reply to this letter justifying his defence of Mr Borghezio, otherwise it is quite clear the Italian MEP's remarks can be painted with the same brush as UKIP"

I look forward to reading the reply from the son of Raine but I must point out to Mr Gleeson that Mr Legge, a Faragista who is Mr Kelly's equal in all respects was only following the UKIP party leader's orders.

I am sure Clegg over will be raising this Legge over matter with N Farage when the time is ripe and not in the letter pages of the West Gaz but in the national media.

Why the BBC and UK papers go easy on Farage racist political allies

2011-08-01T02:25:00.000-07:00

I received an email last week from Andrew Edwards which raises this issue. An issue I have written on and which Del Young and I have been discussing on and off for the last 4 years. I reproduce Mr Edwards email below.

"Anti-immigration ally of Silvio Berlusconi says Breivik had 'some excellent ideas' - Daily Mail

Ex-Berlusconi minister defends Anders Behring Breivik - The Guardian

Norway killer Anders Behring Breivik emailed 'manifesto' to 250 British contacts -The Telegraph

Three headlines, three references to the related comments from Lega Nord MEP's, Mario Borghezio and Francesco Speroni. Yet not one mention, anywhere, of the fact that Nigel Farage MEP leader of UKIP is formally allied to these men within the EFD group of Europarl.

Why, it's almost as if there's a conspiracy to protect Farage??? Here in the UK this man speaks out against the politics of the BNP, yet in Brussels he and his cronies happily sit alongside people who make the BNP look positively liberal!

Yet not a peep from your newspapers. WHY???

Farage has issued a damage limitation statement calling for the Italian MEP's to apologise, but rather than asking them to apologise like good little boys, why isn't he informing them that he's breaking his formal alliance with the Lega Nord?

The reason of course is obvious - it would cost Farage money!

But why is the media aiding and abetting his ability to keep his current level of EU benefits? "

Mr Andrews rightly points to money as being Farage's motivation in this but why do the media not mention Farage's close links with these Italian racists?

The explanation in three letters is BNP, the favourite bogey man of our liberal elite and a designation Farage freely applies to those who oppose him in UKIP. To report Farage's links and financial symbiotic relations with Liga Nord would make it clear that UKIP's EU allies are not just as racist as the BNP but are considerably worse!

Think back to how often Farage has appeared on high profile BBC TV political programmes like Question Time.shows. Is it because of his intelligence, wit or political perception? Does he compare with other controversial QT non-mainstream figures like George Galloway, David Starkey, Melanie Philips, Simon Heffer, Peter Hitchen etc or of course the man whom Farage wants to be TV show and all Robert Kilroy Silk? Obviously not. Farage does not appoach the intelligence, verbal skill or political courage of the aforementioned. Do you think he could have gone into a US Senate committee kangaroo court like Galloway and win? So why is he on QT more often than most cabinet ministers?

The BBC charter requires it to give some airtime to minority parties including the right wing. The BBC is a left wing liberal elitist organisation. So how can they fulfil their mandate and further their political objectives. Easy! In the words of David Cameron portray UKIP as a group of Fruit Cakes and loonies and who better to do that than UKIP's leader N Farage who can always be relied upon to burnish that image with a bit of help from QT chairman and ex Bullingdon member Dimbledore. Farage smirks and thinks he is a great man and has done awfully well. Dimbledore smirks and knows the truth

There is another right wing UK political party with MEPs called the BNP. The BNP worry the BBC. They did invite their leader Griffin onto QT just the once before a London audience in which the North London Jewish community seemed to be very well represented. The choice of that locale and audience gives away the BBC agenda and fears. They could have put this on in Lancashire, the region Griffin is an MEP for, in a town like Blackburn, fellow Griffin QT panellist Jack Straw's constituency, or Bolton or across the Pennines in Huddersfield or Bradford with an audience containing many Muslims to boo and hiss Griifin but they instead chose London and the North London Jewish community to hurl abuse at Griffin. All they achieved was to offend the British sense of fair play and make the TV home audience feel a bit sorrow for Griffin.

The BBC hates the North of England, knows little of its culture and despises those who live there. Look at how many of their staff have refused to relocate to Salford! Much safer to stay in London. Does anyone know how many Jews work for the BBC and how many Muslims? For such a politically correct organisation as the BBC do not we, the licence payers, not have a right to know?

Farage suits the BBC agenda very well. He has in the words of the Civil Service mandarins been house trained or in le Carre spy terms been turned. The BBC has what Farage craves so he can be manipulated and controlled here in the UK by the political elite as easily as he is manipulated and controlled by the Eurocrats in Brussels.

That Mr Edwards is why the media will continue to 'protect' Farage. He is their tame, house trained right wing pussy cat. But if Farage is indentified in the UK media with the racist views of his EU Liga Nord allies then he is immediately exposed and the BBC etc have to start all over again finding and house training a more acceptable right wing face to maintain its pretence of 'balance'.

UKIP's Janus

2011-07-28T10:57:00.000-07:00

I copy below an email that ended up by mistake in my in box. The originating address was :

Wdartmouthmep@aol.com;

John,

I kept an open mind for a long time moving from moderately opposed to moderately in favour on the basis of the arguments in Independence News and the one hustings I attended.

Leaving to one side the personalities, with generally loyalists in favour and historical trouble makers on the other side, I found the case in favour better argued, not to say a lot less hysterical. Also the pro side is not threatening resignation as some of the others are doing.

More recently I have been taking note of what is happening on the Continent and am becoming convinced that there is a bigger game afoot over there and we have to help it. The sheer hubris of the Eurocrats is such that they may be underestimating the possibility of an official international opposition which Nigel is well qualified to lead.

That now finally puts me firmly into the yes camp.

Feel free to quote as you wish.

Malcolm

Guess who is Malcolm? Dead right Malcolm Wood, W Legge's minder and employee presumably paid on EU funds so hardly an objective opinion. Malcolm Wood is also a long time crony and supporter of N Farage so despite his pretence he is not entirely unbiased in these matters.

Nor was he unbiased when SW RO and prior to the SW MEP selection votes was helping organise meetings at the larger SW branches for the belted Earl to speak at. There were 9 other candidates on the SW slate but I know of none other than the son of Raine, grandson of the pink vision Barbara Cartland, invited to speak at these intimate soirees. And just look where our esteemed former SW RO Mr Wood now earns a crust to cushion his retirement

For the extra bonus point you have to guess who is Dear John and post the answer on my blog.

Don't cry for me Argentina

2011-07-27T13:27:00.000-07:00

In 2001 Argentina defaulted and exited its peso from its one to one convertibility peg to the US dollar that had lasted for the previous10 years. What happened? Well since 2001 there has been 10 years of sustained economic growth in Argentina and last year growth hit 9.2%. .

Was there any difference between Argentina and Greece? Some said that because Argentina's crisis was preceded by a decade of free-market reforms, and followed by a huge surge in world commodity prices benefiting its farm exports, it would be unwise for Greece to try to take the same path or would it?.

The similarities were not lost on Athens protesters last month when parliament voted through more cuts. They floated a balloon asking: "Yesterday, Argentina; Today, Greece; Tomorrow?" In both countries the populace wanted rid of their parasitic political class and took to the streets to do so.

The difference was Argentina was on its own. There was no danger of their contagion spreading to the US economy. They defaulted, their bond holders sued capital fled the country and what then happened? The most interesting thing was the rise of democratic worker's cooperatives to take over shut down hotels, factories and even airlines. As Wikepedia says, " During the economic collapse, many business owners and foreign investors drew all of their money out of the Argentine economy and sent it overseas. As a result, many small and medium enterprises closed due to lack of capital, thereby exacerbating unemployment. Many workers at these enterprises, faced with a sudden loss of employment and no source of income, decided to reopen businesses on their own, without the presence of the owners and their capital, as self-managed cooperatives."

And it worked! Is this what the EU is really afraid of. Democratic worker power removing the need for Eurocrats and the political class? Its worth a thought.

EUKIP made flesh

2011-07-20T11:02:00.000-07:00

I received today my copy of Independence news. It also contained two slips of paper and an envelope relating to Farage's financially motivated wish to join UKIP MEPs to a Pan European, EU supporting party. Farage wants UKIP to take the EU bribe and sell out our core principle of EU withdrawal so that he can have a bigger budget solely under his control to spend in Brussels. This money cannot be used to support our withdrawal cause in any way and opens the door for Pan European parties to contest the next UK European election. I fully expect Farage will be standing for a Pan European party. He may be prepared to sacrifice his principles for money but I, and I hope many other UKIP members, will never take the EU's poisoned Euro.

While on the NEC Del, David and I fought long and hard for UKIP elections to be conducted independently by the Electoral Reform Society to maintain the probity and integrity of UKIP elections. This has now been ditched. Both slips of paper say, "Should the UK Independence party MEPs join a European Political Party and a European Political Foundation under regulation EC 2004/2003". This wonderful piece of EU gobbledegook shows how far Farage and his cronies have embraced and support the EU!

One slip has YES on it and one slip NO. They are called ballot papers which must be returned to an address, UKIP Ballot, 11 Church Street, Hartlepool, TS24 7DJ. That is not UKIP's head office. It seems to be the address of the firm Atkinson Print Ltd who printed the ballot papers. What on earth is going on? No mention of checks or scrutiny of the electoral process, or returning officer. In short a system wide open to abuse and manipulation . No wonder UKIP is fast becoming a laughing stock.

This image is furthered by some real vote losing articles printed in Independence News. One exhorts UKIP to support Israel and is written by one Jacob Campbell, Press Officer, UKIP Friends of Israel. What can UKIP gain from this association given the largely justified bad publicity Israel gets in the media and the BBC?

Then we have the batty Earl opining on the EU threat to OUR herbal pills and potions. This all seems to have originated from the Earl's grandmother Barbara Cartland. Wow! He then describes properly licensed drugs as a 'big killer' and follows with the sentence, "Over 40000 deaths are recorded in the UK alone". What on earth does that mean? Another vote loser

Our MEPs certainly do their best to live up to Cast Iron Dave's fruit cakes and loonies description of UKIP. They should stick to pissing on Brussels hotel plants and not pissing on UKIP. Still there is always Monckton being warned off pretending to be a member of the House of Lords to restore sanity to our party.

Merkel shows who is boss

2011-07-19T12:40:00.000-07:00

If there were any doubts our mid-European friends must now realise they are living in the Fourth Reich. Dr Frau Merkel calls the shots. She will not agree to anything that damages the Fatherland. Its as simple as that as N Farage likes to say. Nothing doing on the money markets other than Spain had to shell out an extra 1% today for one year money.

I was vastly amused by the Steve Allison report on Junius on the total irrelevance of UKIP's NEC. It was ever thus! Until they get rid of Farage and his cabal nothing will change. Pip pip.

Eurozone crisis deepens - no way out

2011-07-18T13:52:00.000-07:00

Today's piece by AEP in the DT is headlined, "An orderly break up of EMU is the wise way out of the eurozone crisis". His thesis is split the Eurozone in two with Club Med etc keeping the ECB and a currency called the Euro which would instantly sink on the Forex market to its correct level and the hard core Germany plus I guess Austria and Holland would have a new currency which would be like the Swiss Franc. Can I suggest it is called the Reichsmark. It would certainly rival the Swissie as a safe hard currency.

The plus point is the PIGS would be able to repay their Euro denominated loans in devalued Euros. Great for them but not so good for those banks in the new Reich who still hold a lot of PIGS paper. The other negative from Dr Frau Merkel's view point is German industry would be saddled with an appreciating currency raising the price of their exports. The German's did very well out of an undervalued currency after the war up to 1980. The soft Euro has been a godsend to them. Merkel would like to keep it that way at least until after her re-election.

Things today worsened on the bond markets so I update my 10 year PIIGS' bond yield table with as always the spread to bunds in brackets:

              8th July                11th July             15th July 18th July

Greece 17.04% (14.20) 17.19% (14.52) 17.71% (15.02) 18.23% (15.57)

Ireland   13.13% (10.29) 13.62% (10.96) 14.27% (11.58) 14.45% (11.79)

Portugal 13.05% (10.21) 13.28% (10.61) 12.93% (10.24) 12.84% (10.18)

Spain         5.69% (2.85)    6.08% (3.41) 6.07% (3.38) 6.32% (3.67)

Italy           5.28% (2.45)    5.72% (3.05)    5.77% (3.09)    5.99% (3.34)

Not a pretty picture when the squabbling mid Europeans Finance ministers meet on Thursday. Looks like Greek bonds could soon be at 20%! The only currency the Euro is holding up against is, yes, Sterling. Bad news for those UK MPs planning a holiday in Euroland but of no consequence for our wealthy MEPs who are of course paid in Euros.

Bank Stress test adequacy questioned

2011-07-17T03:19:00.000-07:00

I hesitated to opine on the rigour of bank stress whose results were announced on Friday as I no longer have access to Bloomberg and other financial news feeds Reading the business section of today's Sunday Telegraph confirms my misgivings about these much touted tests.

'EBA wanted tougher tests' is the page 2 headline. I quote, 'The European Banking Authority has attempted to quell City complaints over Friday's widely criticised industry stress tests telling analysts they would have liked to have made them harsher but were unable to do so', my italics. The EBA said they had faced great difficulties getting different national regulators and banks to provide adequate data. They have my sympathy. I have been there and I have the tee shirt and scars to show for my visit.

As the ST says,' Tomorrow is the first chance for investors to give their view on the tests. Many are expecting a volatile trading session as markets assess the findings'. Indeed. Watch the PIIGS bond spreads, the Euro exchange rate and Eurozone bank share prices to get the market's view.

Another ST headline is 'Germany says Greek debt hit "unavoidable" '. It is strange how they cannot bring themselves to use the truthful phrase, Greek default. There is to be yet another European leaders meeting on Thursday for another emergency summit on Greece. I predict this meeting, like all their previous meetings on this topic, will produce much hot air and fine words but no action. Quite simply the EU is in denial on this issue and until they face the reality which I hope the markets will soon force upon them nothing will happen.

Banks have to raise huge amounts of capital on their 'name' in bond, commercial paper and short term money markets. Would you want to lend money to a Spanish or Italian bank?

Even our allegedly brilliant House of Lords, stuffed with all the retired human expertise and excrement we can muster, is to mount an attack on the credit rating agencies for doing their job on sovereign bonds. Its called shooting the messenger and is an old British tradition.

There are another two pieces in the today's ST on differing aspects of the same topic. Our ruling political class however remains obsessed with phone hacking and press regulation, It is police corruption and regulation they should be concerned with on the home front but even that pales into insignificance besides what will happen in the money markets next week. As a US Treasury secretary once pointed out the bond market is the most powerful force on Earth!

Eurozone PIIGS 10 year bond spreads widen again

2011-07-15T13:06:00.000-07:00

Bond markets are entirely rational. They form a major component of every MPC presentation and decision.I therefore look at the developments since the start of the week and give the relevant figures below.

                Friday 8th July         Monday 11th July    Friday 15th July

Greece     17.04% (14.20)       17.19% (14.52)      17.71% (15.02)
Ireland      13.13% (10.29)    13.62% (10.96)       14.27% (11.58)
Portugal   13.05% (10.21)        13.28% (10.61) 12.93% (10.24)
Spain          5.69% (2.85)            6.08% (3.41)            6.07% (3.38)
Italy           5.28% (2.45)             5.72% (3.05)            5.77% (3.09)

So little change since Monday apart from Greece.

The much awaited results of the stress tests on European including British Bank balance sheets were published today. Nine banks failed the test, 2 Greek, 5Spanish 1 Austrian and 1 German. In addition 12 further banks came close to failing, 7 Spanish, 2 Greek, 2 Portuguese and 1 Cypriot. I find it puzzling no Italian bank was found wanting. Why? Well when I once contacted the Banca d'Italia to find out how many Italian banks they were they admitted they had no definitive answer and the last time they had mounted a count they had given up at 1000. I simply do not believe these figures in respect of Italy and I suspect the figures for Spain are an underestimate. The Greek figures are damning and indicate Greek bond rates will continue to go up and up.

Eurozone chaos continues

2011-07-14T12:53:00.000-07:00

The IMF head of mission, Ajai Chopra, to Euro troubled Eire made me laugh. He berated the EU saying in the context of Eire the EU needed to "provide consistent, cohesive and co-operative policies". He then went on to say "What we need and what is lacking so far is a European solution to a European problem.!"

When I was involved in the early 80s in applying for academic grants from the EU that is exactly the phrase the EU used ad nauseam to justify not adopting already existing US technology and standards. We do not want US systems they cried. We want European solutions to European problems. A pity they do not heed their own advice. Also they now seem delighted to have the IMF, a US based Anglo Saxon invention solve their EU created half baked European problems.

Instead the EU continues inventing fancy phrases at which they excel to avoid using the unpleasant but truthful words, Greek default. All the talk of private sector involvement, reprofiling debt etc simply means a default in the eyes of the investors and credit rating agencies.

"The principle of having a Euro chiefs' meeting is accepted by the main players, including Germany," said one EU diplomat, adding that it was likely to happen next week despite earlier signals from Berlin that there was no rush to finalize a second package of aid.reports Reuters today. Well the EU is certainly never short of fine words and hot air but as the Emperor Augustus used to say before Jesus was even born, 'Fine words butter no parsnips'. They don't even butter up the Germans who are getting angrier and angrier over this mess. They may even be wishing they had never joined.

UKIP's Tweedledum and Tweedledee

2011-07-13T12:54:00.000-07:00

I have often been struck by the uncanny similarity of Bannerman and Dartmouth. Physically they look very much alike, well fleshed I should say. Their views or should I say non-views are similar and one hears the same scurrilous Tory rumours about both. Dartmouth's mummy is the celebrated acid Raine as named by Diana Spencer. Nobody seems to know what claim Bannerman has to the name Campbell Bannerman.and what connection he has to the Liberal prime minister of that name. Mr Bannerman seems strangely reluctant to clarify this detail.

Both failed to make it in the Tory party defined as being selected for a safe Tory seat and both drained into UKIP via the plug hole in the Tory sink. Both sucked up to the great leader in the true Tory tradition and were rewarded with his patronage and a high place on UKIP's MEP slates and after their election both have taken to the EU like a duck to water endorsing their flexible political credentials Bannerman by rejoining the Tory party and the other by his slavish support of Mr Farage's new earner, the Pan European UKIP party.

They encapsulate how UKIP is dominated by closet Torys eager to emerge from the closet and enjoy the munificence of the old Etonian Tory Sun King ,cast iron Dave, who might have been one's fag at Eton. Until UKIP rids itself of these people it will as Mr Bannerman observed not be a political party but a Tory pressure group. Elections are won in the middle ground of British politics not on the playing fields of Eton.

To win on this ground UKIP needs to rid itself of its right wing buffers image and detoxify or should I say deFarage its brand into something the great mass of the UK electorate can identify with and vote for. That is not a load of Young Independence wannabee on the EU gravy train youf but people who have held real jobs with real responsibility to make something work who will put their country's interests first and last and who will work in the UK to achieve this goal. I was struck by something Greg Beaman said about Sinn Fein who refused to take up their parliamentary seats. Where are these people now? Well they are in government and where is Farage's Brussels based UKIP to be found ? In the bars of Brussels where they will stay until they are eventually kicked out by a weary electorate recognising them for the freeloaders that they are.