I read this with some professional satisfaction as it is exactly what I forecast in my last, pre-Xmas blog on 24th Dec 08. I summarise AEP's piece below.
"Germany is coming under mounting pressure to rescue Europe’s weaker states by agreeing to an EU agency with powers to issue bonds for the eurozone as a whole for the first time.
Any such move would amount to the creation of an “EU Treasury” to back up the single currency, in effect compelling Germany to share its elite credit rating with weaker states such as Italy, Greece, Spain and Ireland
The proposal is certain to cause apoplexy in Berlin where any suggestion that German taxpayers should be made liable in any way for the huge public debts of Europe’s weaker states is a neuralgic subject."
The stresses in the Euro system are starting to show particularly in the Greek-German bond spread which is now 2.14%. The Greeks and the Italians have many billions of maturing Euro bonds to refinance this year. Who is going to buy these bonds? Greece and Italy have 'previous' on bond defaults so it is going to be very difficult. The pressure for an EU Treasury and tax base will grow but as AEP says its the German tax payer who will have to pay and they are not happy bunnies at this prospect.
The bond market is the most powerful force on Earth. As Bill Clinton's first campaign manager James Carville put it:
"I used to think if there was reincarnation, I wanted to come back as the President or the Pope or a .400 baseball hitter. But now I want to come back as the bond market. You can intimidate everyone."
The EU are on collision course with the bond market and my confident prediction is the market will win. This is a god sent opportunity for UKIP as EU reputations will be trashed in this confrontation. But is UKIP, current sole proprietor N Farage, up to capitalising on this opportunity? Well time will tell. I hope NF can and will exploit this chance to do real damage to the EU.
I read with sadness that Gawain Towler may be in some difficulties re his MEP candidacy. If true, it is disappointing this was not detected earlier in the MEP selection process as it may be potentially damaging to all candidates on the SW list. The SWCC passed a resolution before the MEP selection process started that the candidates selected by the SW selection sub-committee of Elizabeth Burton, Jeff Mager and David Bendall and non-voting chairman Malcolm Wood should be presented first to the SWCC for approval before being sent to Mr Gill and the NF's national political committee. This resolution was not accurately reproduced in the final SWCC committee minutes and was not implemented by the selection sub-committee. The sub-committee's recommendations went straight to Mr Gill bypassing SWCC scrutiny.
Whether this would have helped Mr Towler we will never know. I am portrayed by some as anti UKIP. I am not. I stand for sticking to the rules and upholding democratic decisions. Those who think that they know better put us on the slippery slope that leads to the swamp of endemic sleaze that engulfs the UK's three main political parties.
My views have not changed since I stood for MEP selection and can be found on my web site