Friday, 21 April 2017

EU is interfering in our General Election

Yesterday another dodgy mid European,Italian Antonio Tajani, President of the EU talking shop,  turned up at No10 saying Britain would be welcomed back into the EU if voters change their minds. He was also saying that the EU medicines agency and finance would be removed from the UK and we would have to pay the costs of the relocation move. The latter is something no British PM could possibly agree to. but its all part of the EU nice guy, nasty guy strategy to soften us up pr- negotiation which the EU of course deny is even happening. It is also a blatant attempt to interfere in our General Election.

He also prattled on about protecting the rights of EU citizens in the UK and vice versa. All well and good except he said that these EU citizens living in the UK he says would live under EU law administered by the ECJ and would have the human right to bring in their relatives and this  would a red line in the Brexit negotiations. This is as MrTajani must know is impossible for HMG to accede to. It is merely a ploy to give the Lib Dems and their fellow travellers another excuse to blather on about poor stressed EU immigrants living in the UK. We live under British law in the UK with no exceptions for Muslims, Italians or any other group. Its the only way a country can run. The UK saying is , "When in Rome do as the Romans do". That should not be too difficult for an  Italian to grasp.

There was also the usual EU guff about how we would have to pay in to the EU coffers ad nauseam. Its all a scare story to panic the UK electorate. Despicable.

I cannot see much wrong with WTO trade rules. If they are good enough for 93% of the non-EU world trade why is it not good enough for the EU? The answer is the EU is not really interested in trade its obsession is to become a country like  the USA. That will never happen. History is all against it.  Why not recognise this and tell them we will use WTO rues from June 2019? It would spare us endless Remoaner drivel from Farron etc

Tuesday, 18 April 2017

UKIP outlook in Brexit General election is dire

I have no doubt T May's principal reason in calling this election was Labour weakness. Its not a done deal until the 2/3 majority vote goes through tomorrow. Turkeys do not vote for Xmas and there are a lot of turkeys on the Labour benches who might abstain or vote against to save their own necks. The other result will be to wipe out UKIP. I doubt Nigel will even stand. UKIP has been poorly led and now the ordinary decent members must pay the price of blind support for NF. They should have demanded far reaching party management reforms to ensure they can fight elections as well as the Lib Dems will fight this one. There were to many arse lickers at the top of UKIP for this to happen.

The Lib Dems are of course well pleased and I think they might well win a few more seats, up to 10 possibly but if Labour lose 80 to the Tories the LibDems will be what they have always been, an irrelevance. UKIP can be proud that it got and won our referendum on leaving the EU an achievement of such a magnitude that Golum Farron can never equal.

The SNP are spiiting blood. Its put their pathetic second referendum campaign well and truly on the back burner.

I hope Tory Central office sort out, ie deselect their awkward EU loving squad, starting with the Soubry woman. I do hope Bunter Clarke stands down at last. Its a pity about Postie Johnson he was a nice guy.

Its a bold move by the Vicar's daughter that deserves to succeed. Its also another one in the eye for the Westminster commentariat. Who pays these ill informed useless people ?

Saturday, 15 April 2017

What should Donald do about North Korea?

The recent North Korean military parade  and rallies smack of Nazi rallies 1936-39.add child  indoctrination Hitler youth style  and we all know where that will end up. There s no question in my mind that Trump has to act quickly.

His strategy of hitting military targets with conventional weapons cruise and other missiles and avoiding civilian casualties as much as possible must be correct. He cannot allow Kim to threaten Japan  with nuclear attack.

The problems are North Korea could launch a conventional ground attack across the DMZ and a ground war is something Trump cannot politically contemplate not if he wants to stay President. I see avoiding this scenario as Trump's big problem but how? I am glad  its not my problem but if anyone can crack it it is the US army but faced with Kim it will be impossible to avoid civilian casualties and the bleeding heart liberal elite will be all over Trump like a rash.

The US will try to defend the South Korean population with sea borne anti-missile rockets but no US soldier should set foot on Korean soil. Supply the South Koreans with all the conventional arms and hardware they ask for but its up to them to use to defend themselves.

If Kim is stupid enough to go nuclear hitting South Korean cities it makes it easy for Trump but I do hope he will not retaliate with nuclear weapons. He can do whatever he wants except that.

Longer term he will have eventually to face up to China and that will require an alliance with Russia Putin and all. The US cannnot tolerate China grabbing a big chunk of the South C hina Sea through its artifical fortified island comstruction programme. All problems ignored by Obama the worst US president imop since Randy Jack Kennnedy.

Friday, 14 April 2017

Donald Trump is starting to look a good President

Trump's major decision is to back his military. Thereafter he does the PR and leaves the management to the military who choose the target, the weapons to be used and the timing. No General wants to lose a single one of their men so clearly there will be as few boots on the ground as possible. That is the right strategy hence the use of cruise missiles in Syria and a huge thermobaric bomb in Afghanistan and minimal civilian casualties.The Yanks are also pursuing an achievable aim of denying the terrorists safe havens in which they can rest up and regroup. Its so good to have a leader who lets the guys who know the business get on with it.

I an a great admirer of the classless US military compared to our public school dominated army. I always compare the treatment of my old school pal Fairey who when a Major ran the Libyan embassy siege for the first two days despite requests from No 10 to speak to a proper officer. Also from my council house area and corporation school in Edinburgh there emerged one Robert Johnston who was Stormin Norman.s Chief of Staff in the Gulf war and retired a marines Lt General. How many Lt Generals in the British Army went to a council school?

The UK is still class ridden which holds us back as a country.  Our ruling political elite could learn a lot from Donald but they of course know they are right and Donald is wrong just like all of us who dared vote Brexit

To balance things out Julian Amery, old Etonian was a good minister and did two years behind enemy lines in the Balkans in WWII. His elder brother John was an Old Harrovian and was hanged for treason by Albert Pierrepoint, on 19th Dec 1945. Here is a good read if you like these things.

I have high hopes of the Donald. His mother was certainly not upper class and did not attend Eton or even Cheltenham Ladies.Its good to see the ex-public school bien pensants proved wrong. No lessons will be learned and these people will continue to rule over us unquestioned in their moral right to do so and talking from the moral high ground in high moral tones.

Monday, 10 April 2017

Libor Rates revisited

I watched the BBC Panorama tonight. As I have some acquaintance with the process I fill in some of the many gaps in the BBC's typically poor, shoddy journalism.

Libor rates c 2007 were set by the Britsh Bankers Association, the BBA. They were set or around 20 currencies, not just Sterling ove a range of tenors from overnight to 2 years. The most important were the one month and 3 month rate. The latter was used for swaps and option pricing world wide

Each currency had an associated panel of banks, around 16 for Stering. Every morning the BBA would phone all the panel members nd ask for their Libor rate ie the rate they would lend at in size to another bank on the panel. In size means circa £100 to £500 million. The BBA discarded the 4 top rates and the 4 bottom rates and calculated the average of the middle 8 rates which was published at 11:00 as the that day's Libor rate. It is therefore difficult to see how one bank could shift the rate significantly there had to be a group of banks involved, a comspircy.

In my work at the BoE I always distrusted LIBOR rates because they were not traded rates. I always used OIS , overnight interest rate swap rates which only the biggest 6 to 8 banks did and were trraded rates at which actual swap transactions took place.

I saw no evidence of rigging of the Libor market just a nagging uncertainty about the way LIBOR was compilied. It was open to manipulation.

All banks keep a giant spreadsheet that aggregates their net postions over all instruments, swaps, FRAs, options etc but they all settled against LIBOR so banks knew the precise effect of a one basis point move in LIBOR on their profits.


Thx to Austrianpeter for his comment. I should have pointed out that Libor is an unsecured rate and what you are detecting is the credit spread which can be very large to the point that you refuse to lend to some banks, called a credit crunch. Its not good to lend to counterparties you do not think can repay! Thats what happened to Northern Rock.

Banks can still borrow and lend on the GCRepo market where govenment bonds are pledged as collateral for the loan, All the BoE lending to commercial banks is done on this secured basis. Its been a legal requirement since 1848 ie before I was born. The problem is than to estimate the margin you need to take on the loan in case the collateral price falls. That hot potato always ended up in my lap in my BoE days. A  mistake would have been career terminating for those with BoE ambitions! I was often told I was expendable and had no BoE career. I was old even then.

Wednesday, 5 April 2017

Paddy the hypocrit. Like Farage his private persona differs hugely from his public image

Lib Dems have a long history of rank hypocrisy. At the 2010 election Clegg,then the Lib Dem leader,  was signing pledges for students in front of TV cameras saying he would not support putting up student tuition fees . Two weeks later, with his feet safely under the Cabinet table, Clegg was part of a government putting up tuition fees. Students should remember this is  what LibDems mean when they pledge to support young people, just long enough to get their vote and get LibDems in the back of the chauffeur driven ministerial limo. The LibDems cynically thought come the 2015 the students would have forgotten this betrayal. The had not and in the South West rightly wiped the yellow stain of LibDummery off the political map of the South West even in Yeovil Paddy's old seat.

Paddy is my village neighbour and is now getting very tetchy.He accused me of writing up private conversations (with him presumably) in this blog.  I have not. Other than pleasantries when I bump into him outside the pub the only significant conversation I have ever had wth him was in front of around 100 people in the village hall during the referendum campaign  so hardly a private.conversation

When he accosted me on this topic last Saturday evening it was not a conversation but a long rant from Paddy on what a bad boy I had been. He did not do me the courtesy of waiting to hear my answer but turned his back on me in best Royal Marine parade ground style and stormed off up his neighbours drive before I could answer so no conversation there either.  He is quite simply a bully.

Some months after the referendum I had to endure a similar rant from his son witnessed by Paddy and Jane saying I had robbed his children of their rights and I was also  responsible for Trump beinng elected US president so no conversation there either. Both allegations were patent rubbish but neither Paddy or Jane saw fit to correct their son.

He seems to think politics is something that happens in London in that lavishly funded government care home that is the House of Lords and not in Norton Sub Hamdon and ordinary mortals like me should defer to these Lords and Baronesses. He wants to  bully me  about what I write in this blog. Sorry Paddy this Jock is not for being bullied!  I thought it was time for me to take a look at the history of Paddy and how he got the sobriquet Pantsdown.

But let us start in the early hours of 24th June 2016 with Paddy being interviewed by Julie Etchingham for ITN

Listen to his fine words. He is now doing all he can .with his unelected Lib Dem Lords and Ladies, to sabotage Brexit and thwart the will of our democratically elected House of Commons.. That is why I call him a hypocrit.

Let us dig a little deeper into his history. The most accessible account is in the Daily Mail and you can read it on the link below:

It is written by former  Lib Dem president and founder of Shelter, Des Wilson and is well worth reading. The lady, one Tricia Howard, comes out of it well,  and is reported as rejecting an offer of £50000 by the News of the World for her kiss and tell story. A consderable sum in those days probably sufficienr to buy her a flat in London.

The piece is headlined:

His mistress behaved like a real trouper... but he threw her to the dogs: 

I quote from Des Wilson's piece

"I ( Des Wilson) was, therefore, angered by a reference to her in a leader in The Times, which commented harshly that she had not appeared averse to publicity. This was outrageous. I spoke to Ashdown about it.
'Someone should write to The Times and defend her,' I said. 'At the least they should be told she acted on our advice and that she rejected £50,000.'
He looked at me, then said: 'Well, I'm not going to do it.'
I could not but feel that Tricia Howard had been thrown to the dogs. I wrote a brief letter to The Times which, to its credit, it published at the top of the letters page the following day."

Neither Paddy or Jane come well out of the whole business.

Affair: Ashdown's wife Jane said Tricia Howard looked like 'an old trout'

Jane is reported as decribing Tricia in unflattering terms. I never knew Tricia but from that photograph she looks just an ordinary decent woman.

I believe Paddy wrote of the affair in his diaries which I cannot recommend buying. The extract below was published in the Belfast Telegraph, 13th Nov, 2000

Paddy Ashdown wrote about his ex-mistress Tricia Howard in his recently published diaries, so ineviitably she has retaliated with her own damning account of their affair.
Ensuring that he will now be known as Paddy Pantsdown (But Not For Long), she delivers a withering version of their hasty sex life: "He was at my house and my son went out to walk his girlfriend home. We said: "Quick, here's our chance" and wondered how quickly we could do it. We timed it and it lasted nine-and-a-half seconds. For him, anyway."
So with this sort of stuff  in the public domain what is Paddy's gripe about what I write in this blog? Its just typical Lib Dem hypocrisy but I am shocked at what I found out researching this piece about Paddy.
But this is all history. On 5th May we go to the polls in local elections. Many people think of the Lib Dems as a party of integrity. They are wrong. I was in UKIP for a three or so years where I got to know Nigel Farage and his supporters. Nigel also had a few stories printed about his adventures with the ladies. I see no difference between UKIP and the Lib Dems. it may be all political parties are the same at the top. Just don't be conned by the Lib Dem's high moral tone. They are no different from any other political party and will say anything to get your vote so don't give it to them. Vote for any independent candidate standing in your ward.

Sunday, 2 April 2017

Shock, horror, local Lib Dem reads my blog

Yestreen I was accosted by a local Lib Dem bitterly complaining about what I had wriiten in my blog. This was music to my ears. That a fully paid up Lib Dem reads my blog is great news. That what I have written annoys them is even better. Its as my old boss in the Civil Service used to say it shows you are getting to them and as I live in, what can be described as a LibDem rotten borough, that is a good result. I feel like the Gay in Little Britain. I am the only non-Lib Dem in the village.

Unlike the Lib Dems I am given no time on mainstream TV or Radio so writing this blog is my only way of communicating my views to the British public, a great tribute to the internet and I hope to continue my writings for many years. As I have pointed out to the Lib Dems I always write under my own name. They know where I live and if I libel them, which I have never done, they have recourse to the UK/EU courts.

If any Lib Dem objects to what I write they can always post a comment. I do not moderate or edit posted comments so they can even post the entire Lib Dem manifesto!

I do think the Lib Dems might do very well in the South West in the coming May local government elections so I expect to see Farron on TV post 5th May proclaming the great Lib Dem revival. That is the difference between me and the Lib Dems. I try to be objective and see things as they are whereas  most Lib Dems are delusional. I do hope that they include a commitment to rejoin the EU in their 2020 general election manifesto as Farron has promised. That means joining the Euro, the best surefire vote loser in British politics,even better than Jezza Corbyn.