Friday, 31 October 2014

UKIP cock up Rotheram Crime Commissioner Election

Why did UKIP lose? The same old reasons. Farage's cabal never learn. They are plain thick.

Poor organisation of the postal vote

Wrong choice of candidate, an ex-plod from the South Yorkshire force. That's right the bunch that tried to cover up their part in the Hillsborough disaster. People want an independent commissioner not one steeped in the local police that people are complaing about. It's the same with the IPCC, full of ex-coppers. Independent it is not!

Dr Billings is a vicar.

Result:

Labour's Alan Billings has been voted in as the new Police and Crime Commissioner for South Yorkshire.
Dr Billings took just over 50% of the vote in the poll held following the resignation of Shaun Wright amid the Rotherham child abuse scandal.
UKIP's Jack Clarkson finished second with 32% of the vote, the Conservatives were third and the English Democrats fourth.
The turnout was 14.88%, down from 14.93% in 2012.
Doncaster council chief executive, Jo Miller, said the turnout at the ballot box in the town was only 3.5%, with 11.7% postal votes.
Dr Billings said: "I'm very pleased. It's been very, very hard fought. Given the circumstances it's very gratifying that the Labour Party is able to re-establish itself in South Yorkshire as a credible force."
The Conservative candidate Ian Walker took nearly 13% of the vote, with David Allen of the English Democrats polling just under 6%.
The by-election was called after Mr Wright resigned on 16 September following weeks of pressure built up by a report into child abuse in Rotherham.
The Alexis Jay Report revealed that more than 1,400 children in the town had been sexually exploited by gangs of men.
Mr Wright had been the councillor who oversaw Rotherham's children's services between 2005 and 2010.

Thursday, 30 October 2014

Labour's Scottish Nightmare see PS



The latest IpsosMori poll is shattering not only for Labour, down to 4 Scottish seats, but for all the Westminster parties. The Tories unsurprisingly will lose their one and only Scottish MP and the sordid LibDems all but one. They are expected to hang on to Jo Grimond's old seat of Orkney & Shetland!

Embedded image permalink

This is what the London political elite richly deserve. I am paricularly glad that the LibDems are to be virtually wiped out as they sabotaged using a sordid Westminster trick the Bill that would have given us an in/out EU referendum right now. They seem to think its business as usual and they can go on fiddling our democracy for their own advantage.

They have not learned from the cruel deception they perpretuated on student fees nor from their party self interest sabotage of patently democratic Westminster boundary changes to remove some of the most glaring inequalities in constituency size which hands Labour an unfair number of MPs for their share of the vote.

All that has been delivered is a huge number of knighthoods and peerages for some mediocre useless immoral LibDem politicians whom the country would be well rid off and an AV referendum nobody wanted. They sem to think that the electorate will forget all their expenses corruption but the Scottish Referendum has changed all that. Labour down to 4 Scottish seats would have been unbelievable pre referendum. I would love to be at Scottish Labour's gala dinner tonight with Milliband. I would go as Banquo Blair's ghost.

Even if the SNP numbers come back a bit to say 40 MPs if you add to that the Ulster and Welsh MPs  it would give a block of 55 non LibLabCon MPs. If UKIP manage to get 5 MPs then Cameron or Milliband will have to form a coalition.

But what of the LibDems in England? I doubt if there will be more than 15 of them post May 2015. It is a proven fact that any country with the word democratic in its name is a nasty dictatorship. Its the same with the LibDems with the dictator being the BBC/Guardian liberal elite.

At last thanks to Scotland I see hope for our country to become a real democracy run by the people for the people!

PS 31 Oct

A second poll by YouGov published late on 30 th Oct makes slightly better reading for Labour but is still disastrous

Times / YouGov Scotland gen elec poll
SNP: 43% (47 seats)
Labour: 27% (10 seats)
C: 15% (1 seat)
LD: 4% (1 seat)

The mesage is the same. We don't want the Westminster political elite in Scotland



Tuesday, 28 October 2014

Diane James must front up UKIP's General Election campaign.

Mrs James is now UKIP's biggest electoral asset. Many people like her and more important few dislike her. The LibDems made their big break through under Charlie Kennedyin 2005. Living so close to Paddy I know how the LibDem establishment disliked Charlie but the great British public, men and women liked him and in 2005 he got more seats than Cleggy without the TV leaders debate exposure Cleggy was given in the TV leaders debate.

The UKIP faithful most of whom have never met or tried to work with him, may love Farage but the public like Mrs James. Its the same mistake Labour are making. With Alan Johnston as leader Cameron and Clegg are toast. People like Alan Johnston. Milliband is just plain unlikeable and this will be people's perception of Farage at the end of the election campaign. He is not an attractive person to women and will increasingly be perceived as rentaqote man with a glib answer to everything but answers that falls apart under pressure.

Farage's favourite trick of disowning other UKIP spokesmen is even now starting to wear a bit thin with the public. It also must be annoying the hell out of O'Flynn and Mrs James. Farage is past his sell by date. His past statements are catching up on him and the more he talks on camera the worse this problem will get for UKIP. But who is going to tell him to shut up?

If it were the Tory party the men in grey suits would right now be tapping Nigel on the shoulder and talking about the greater good of the party trumping his personal ambitions. That is the trouble with leader personality cults. Nobody dare say the emperor now has no clothes.

Monday, 27 October 2014

Who will be the first UKIP MEP to fall out with Farage

Farage has a long track record of losing MEPs rather quickly as he rounds up the EU Euros and corals them in the IOM . The current crop of UKIP MEPs are  to say the least undistinguished however in the interests of livening things up I will give odds on when the first excommunication will be ordered by Pope Farage the infallible.

Those who have gone before like Nikki have often cited Nigel's nasty mid- European neo fascist friends that he has in Brussels. Bannerman developed a middle aged crush and undying admiration for Dave and Marta found the laissez fair UKIP finances difficult to stomach and also joined the Tories..

I find this difficult as I know less than half the new intake who seem to be ex-Tories who have jumped on the bandwagon ,sorry joined the party in the last two years or so.

There are very few who could perhaps find a berth in another party on their own merits:

O'Flynn, Diane James and possibly Aker and Woolfe

Then there is the old guard who would never get preferment in any other party

The rest are Johnny come lately morally flexible ex-Tories and fit the description easy come easy go and only have the leader's fickle favour to recommend them.

After the General election May 2015 reality will dawn when UKIP win only a handful of MPs. In disappointment blame will be delegated to those judged disloyal by the Fuerher. I would rate this an even money chance by end 2015. If Farage is then in Westminster and has to resign as an MEP then the Brussels mice will play. In that scenario with Farage struggling to make a mark in Westminster there would eventually be many Bannerman like MEP defections back to the Tories to secure their 2019 place on the gravy train as Bannerman secured his this year and Andreasen just missed. I would expect an increasing number of UKIP MEP defections as June 2019 approaches. How many? Around 15 in total seems a good central estimate with a range 10 to 20.

Sunday, 26 October 2014

UKIP's weakness & the EU's strength

Currently UKIP is on a roll with Farage claiming they are taking votes from Labour as much as the Tories. That claim will fall apart in the 2015 General Election as the backgrounds of UKIP's candidates are examined. Looking at their current crop of MEPs it looks like the Tory third reserve team with people like Helmer, Etheridge, Legge etc  ie those who failed to get nominated for  a safe seat. They may apppeal to Tory dissidents but there is no way Labour voters will vote for old or young Tories. Even their women are old Tories, Diane James and more obviously Suzanne Evans. Nice ladies but they are no Charlotte Leslies.

Can anyone name a current UKIP MEP or NEC member who was previously a member of the Labour party?

Alex Salmond's SNP came so close to winning in the Scottish referendum by presenting themselves as more socialist than Labour. UKIP have to recognise this and present themselves in this light in Labour held seats and have former Labour members as candidates. That is the way to win. Its the tactic the LibDems used to get up to the 55 to 60 seat mark. Will Farage do it? Of course not he is the biggest failed Tory of the lot. Does he want a group of socialist inclined MPs? Certainly not and neither do the UKIP members and ex-members like the Major. They prefer old Etonians and Eton mess.

The EU's strength is they know the system, play it and run it. France has more than twice as many EU officials as the UK. It helps if you are making the rules and interpreting them but UK officialdom compounds this by gold plating the regulations. Nick Watt pointed this out today on the Sunday Politics opining that this was the probable cause of the £1.7 bn tax demand. I did not know prostitutes were diligent at submitting tax returns. Possibly Latvian pole dancers are more diligent in this area.

Friday, 24 October 2014

EU supports UKIP!

Four days ago I opined that Barroso was UKIP's biggest electoral asset. Little did I think this would be confirmed within 4 days with the announcement of the EUs demand for £1.7 billon extra, roughly £57 per head of the UK population to be paid by 1st Dec. Farage certainly fulfils Napoleon's main criteria for success, he is lucky!

The Tories are clearly toast in the coming Rochester by-election and Cameron must be sick as a parrot about the way the 'colleagues' have kippered him.

Farage was grinning like a Cheshire Cat on the Daily Politics saying Dave would have to pay up and clearly annoying the hell out of Dave's token Asian. Toryboy Pierce was weeping buckets for poor Dave.

The cause of this mess was the usual, a failure to read and understand the relevant treaty clauses by the Rolls Royce minds of the FCO and HMT and ministers who could not be bothered to ask the awkward questions. I well remember having to lecture such minds of the importance of reading bond covenants in detail.

Stil Farage is not in the clear, rather he is still in the mire over his new Polish friend. I quote from the Sun,s weekly Heroes and Villains piece..



"For a man who preaches about putting principle above cynical Westminster policking, it's been a poor week for Nigel Farage. Ukip’s charismatic boss 'fessed up to doing a squalid little deal to join forces with a far right Polish MEP just to get his paws on £1.5m of taxpayers' funding.
Some perspective: Robert Iwaszkiewicz’s party too pro-Nazi even for France's National Front, who refused a similar link up. Farage made it worse by then laughing off as “a joke” ugly comments by the Pole on how wife beating can have its benefits.
The week’s second disaster was a bad miscalculation to allow ex-Radio 1 DJ Mike Read to sing about immigration in a Caribbean accent. Whether it was racist or not, and it probably wasn’t intended to be, it smelled bad and upset folk – and ended in the PR shambles of mortified Read withdrawing the song, and the poe-faced British Red Cross even refusing to take the money it raised as a donation.
Raise your moral game Nige, if you want to be taken seriously."

Note how the Sun calls Farage UKIP's boss not leader!

Thursday, 23 October 2014

Farage agrees with me!

I blogged on 10th October how UKIP should have won Heywood & Middleton,

https://www.blogger.com/blogger.g?blogID=6112651969466158066#editor/target=post;postID=4139724468400044526;onPublishedMenu=allposts;onClosedMenu=allposts;postNum=7;src=postname


Now it is reported,

"UKIP are buoyant at the moment and are confident they can pull off a win which just a few days ago would have been considered highly unlikely. It is worth learning the lesson of another recent by-election: Labour’s win over UKIP in Heywood and Middleton by just 600 votes.
One senior UKIP source tells me they would have won the seat if the party had diverted resources from Clacton - which was in the bag - up north. However, I’m told UKIP HQ insisted on putting everything they had behind Douglas Carswell because “we owed him” for defecting. Understandable, yet notable nonetheless that privately the party is kicking itself for not doing everything it could in Heywood."

A senior UKIP source is code for Farage! You can read the original at

http://www.breitbart.com/Breitbart-London/2014/10/23/Snapshot-UKIP-on-course-to-win-Rochester-and-Strood

On 20th October I blogged that Barroso was currentlyUKIP's greatest asset,

https://www.blogger.com/blogger.g?blogID=6112651969466158066#editor/target=post;postID=1818742416060261819;onPublishedMenu=allposts;onClosedMenu=allposts;postNum=2;src=postname

I find on Twitter Farage now thinks the same. Click below and listen!

 http://order-order.com/2014/10/22/nigel-farage-at-gf10/


Del Young and I always said we knew what Farage would say/do before he even knew himself. Seems nothing has changed so if you want to know Farage's next move read this blog..