Starting from UKIP's aim of complete withdrawal from the EU the only way this can be achieved is by a vote in the Houses of Commons to repeal the 1972 European Community Act. The most likely scenario to achieve this is UKIP holding the balance of power in a hung parliament and supporting an agreed Tory programme including repeal of this Act. Whatever Cameron says his overarching aim is to be PM and get his statue up in Eton with their other former PMs. Note that this is not the same as having an electoral pact with the Tories of any kind. It will arise in parliament after a General Election with the Tories as the largest single party.
The current balance of power position is held by the LibDems and as Alan Wood noted UKIP must seek to replace them by winning enough Tory plus LibDem seats. I cannot conceive UKIP winning Labour held seats but I can see the Eurosceptic BNP doing this! Also, many LibDem seats were former Tory seats so UKIP has a target vote to aim at. Attacking the LibDems will be popular with Tory voters throughout the country so there is some synergy there. So how does UKIP attack the LibDems?
The LibDems are Euro fanatics. The Tories are ambivalent about the EU and even Labour are luke warm about the EU project - ask Bob Crow. But in LibDem eyes the EU can do no wrong and they support each and every EU new policy enthusiastically. We will require the EU's assistance in producing a series of policies that can be portrayed as damaging UK interests but given Sarkozy's recent gloating I have high hopes the EU will be our best ally in this matter.
The current state of the parties in the latest YouGov poll is:
Con 40
Lab 27
Lib Dem 18
UKIP 6
Green 3
SNP / PCY 3
BNP 3
so you see we have nationally quite a gap to close! But in some constituencies UKIP has been crucial in upsetting the Tories e.g. Eastleigh 2005 where UKIP's vote was three times Huhne's majority over the Tories
The LibDems are well known for being devious and slippery and saying different things in different constituencies. Reneging on the referendum on the Lisbon Treaty was a minor misdemeanour by that party's standards. Nevertheless the current attempts by the EU to destroy the City of London provides plenty of ammunition to attack the LibDems with. Their recent U turn on their mansion tax is also good for a bit of fun. Whose house is valued at just over £1 mn the previous tax threshold? Nick Clegg! Who will pay zero tax under LibDem revised mansion tax? Nick Clegg.
The real vote winner is to link every grievance on jobs, immigration even university student places to the EU. Try finding out how many non-UK EU students are being given undergraduate places at Oxford and Cambridge financed by the British taxpayers! You will find the University authorities very coy on this subject and 'we dont keep these figures'. Well every place to a Continental student is one less for a British student. How many British students are given places at one of Frances Grandes Ecoles! Err um close to zero.
So attacking the LibDems is not difficult but the trick is top ensure the votes go to UKIP not the Tories.
The easiest way to do that is to portray the Tories as not to be trusted on the EU. A reiteration of all the past Treaties the Tories have signed with the EU giving the UK away to the EU, Nice, Maastricht etc is a good start but Cameron's obfuscation on repatriating powers provides plenty
of ammo. Just keep on asking how!
Finally I wish Nigel Farage every success in his candidacy for Buckingham. Mrs Bercow is doing a great job for Nigel alienating the local Tories big time so Nigel has an excellent chance of winning!
What UKIP needs nationally is another expenses scandal but I fear things may play the other way this time after OLAF has done its work.
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