Wednesday, 27 February 2013

A prediction of the Eastleigh result

There is a line in the long running play the  "The Mousetrap", "They say Virginia's doing awfully well at Wimbledon this year" that always got a big laugh at the end of June. Its now the same with UKIP. Its now become the protest vote party and you will hear its doing awfully well from time to time as suitable by-elections engage the media's attentions. People are cheesed of with the lies and broken promises of LibLabCon and are looking for a way to express their anger and will hit on UKIP as the only other recognisable name on the ballot paper now that Screaming Lord Sutch has demised.

It is not support for UKIP's core leave the EU policy. To achieve that requires much more effort and a much longer campaign.

Watching the various TV hustings you can see that local issues like building on golf courses and immigration dominate the discussion. UKIP's core leave the EU policy has barely been mentioned so a large vote for UKIP is almost entirely a protest vote pure and simple. Voters don't like Dave or his pal Nick who is so much a stranger to the truth that he has had to invent a whole new language called LibDemspeak to pretend he is not telling porkies. Watch his nose grow! Voters don't like Red Ed or his chum Ed Balls and ts not just their policies they don't like they simply do not trust them or any policians.

Now I think Ms James will get a good result tomorrow. She has come in from 25/1 at the start of he campaign to 6/1 tonight. Ms Hutchings has gone out from Evens to 4/1 against tonight. The LibDems statred at Evens and are now 1/3, overwhelming favourites to win.

This could be a dire result for Dave with the distinct possibility the Tories will be beaten into third place by UKIP. His policy of offering a qualified in/out referendum has certainly dished that vote but it does not touch the huge protest vote UKIP are now receiving at Eastleigh.Thus UKIP will be drawing votes from all wings of three main parties disillusioned with politics and politicians.

That the Tories cannot win such a seat given the tidal wave of LibDem sleaze allegations is a direct consequence of unhappy Tory activists who are simply not turning out to stuff envelopes and organise their postal vote. TheTories have a huge motivation and organisation problem to crack.

As for UKIP learning that Duffy and Reeve are in charge of candidate assessment and training says it all. Assessment means sucking up and training will be the blind leading the blind.

Putting it all together I expect the LibDems to get around 32% of the vote, the Tories 29% UKIP 27% with the remaining 12% split between Labour and the smaller parties but of course I would love Ms James to come through and win.


ALAN WOOD said...

It was always Farage and Malcolm Wood's desire to terrorise the Conservative Party into adopting the UKIP position of leaving the EU.
It would appear that the desire is to get a binding referendum on IN/OUT and that putting the CONS under pressure will achieve that

There are flaws in that argument :-
1. As Dr. Richard North points out, that referendum could go against the outers.
2. The CONS can promise what they like but may not win the next election.
3. Labour can trump that by promising a referendum, but reneging on it, or having to form a coalition with the LIBDEMS who would veto a referendum as not in their manifesto.

Under any circumstances Farage will probably stay an MEP until he has filled his coffers by 2019.

The tragedy is that the only way out is with the other two scenarios postulated by Farage himself; that UKIP take us out by winning a UK Parliamentary election or that the EU implodes.

The unspoken scenario is that the wealth and cunning of the Chinese overwhelms the Western Alliance of USA, EU & Japan economically and possibly by threat. We would be out of the EU then but subservient to a new and cruel master. The Chinese have scores to settle.

Eric Edmond said...


I agree with your points 1,2 & 3. I think we are in a real bind. Europe is a dimishing force economically, politically, militarily and every other field. I have no doubt we would be best to follow the Swiss model including strict neutrality.

The immediate danger is North Korea which has a 1000 year history of wars with Japan. More dangerous than Iran.


ALAN WOOD said...

I should have put my money on !
"As my stable owner said to banker friends when FRANKEL had his last race at ODDS-ON. Put everything you can spare on him. It will be the easiest money you have ever made.
Ditto the LIB-DEMS. Hold your nose and bet it !"

Like FRANKEL, the Lib-Dems had a scare but came through.

All credit to the UKIP team and the superb candidate. Humble but able - rare quality.

Cameron is toast !

Mike Bridgeman said...

Excellent result and candidate. Did much better than I anticipated.
No need for any deals with the Conservatives now-just take them over.