Thursday 21 February 2013

Eastleigh UKIP odds shorten; Bank of England in disarray

The LibDems odds are now 4/1 on! Did you get your bet on yesterday Mr Wood as I advised? This is despite the BoJo show hitting town yesterday. BoJo was great value. Only the Dof E on Fillipino nurses got a better press yesterday. BoJo is that rare thing a very clever man who acts the buffoon but even he, like the mother superior in the Sound of Music, cannot solve a problem like Maria. O'Farrell is making bad jokes and destroying the Labour campaign and not even the former LibDem mayor leaving the LibDems because of their 30 lies and broken promises has not dented their campaign.

UKIP are pushing at an open door. BoJo nailed Clegg on the secret Balkan immigration figures now UKIP's core policy since the demise of the BNP. Ms James is having to do little other than smile sweetly and warn on the demands more EU immmigrants will put on green belt land. UKIP's odds have come into 12/1 at Ladbrokes. Steadily the Tories are giving up on Ms Hutchings and many will vote UKIP. Pulling her out of Radio5 live hustings shows they have given up and are trying to limit the damage she is doing. Ditto for Labour and o'Farrell. So  UKIP has a squeeze on the Tories and I now expect Ms James to get over 20% of the vote.

Ms James has done well but another gaffe from legover Clegg could push her vote up to nearer 30%  if Farage stays away. He is a vote loser in Eastleigh as is Nuttall. They don't appreciate a Liverpool accent down South associated as it is with militant Trade Unionists. They also do not appreciate Arthur Daley types clad in camel hat coats with velvet collars reeking of fag smoke. It also reeks of spiv. They like nice pleasant middle class ladies like Ms James. Farage keep out and take Nuttall with you!

The BoE under Sir Merv has run out of ideas. Carney cannot arrive soon enough. Voting for more QE shows just how out of touch he is. There is no evidence whatsoever that printing money boosts economic growth. Ask Robert Mugabe and the people of Zimbabwe.

When at the BoE I despaired of how the MPC could only see the one side to their often ill-judged actions. Printing money drives up the price of gilts which reduces their yield. This trickles through to Joe Public's building society accounts which Charlie Bean thinks they should be spending. Easily said if like Mr Bean you have a huge, RPI linked, pension. But if you are a prudent pensioner on a state pension you are very reliant on that little bit of extra income you get from your savings. Take my advice spend it while you can on a nice cruise and then claim your increased social security benefits and add to Gideon's woes. Don't feel guilty about doing this, He does not feel guilty about screwing you.

It also hits corporates like insurance companies. RSA one of the biggest cut its dividend this week because of falling returns on its asset portfolio much of which is gilts.

In terms of monetary policy our country is in as big, if not bigger, mess than the Eurozone. King has proved to be a disastrous governor when the going got tough. He is out of touch because he only listens to other economists.

9 comments:

Mike Bridgeman said...

I don't agree the Tories are giving up on their candidate. They cannot possibly afford to do that.
If, as you think, the Lib Dems will walk it (and I think it will be close) then what of Mr. Cameron?
He gambled on keeping his back bench quiet with a sort of referendum half promise sometime in the ether to restore his credibility, and a bad result will make the hierarchy of the Tory party think again.
What next then when he realises that his gamble means next to nothing? The people have seen through it.
Hopefully he will only be able to bring the whole thing forward to have any semblance of credibility for the 2015 election and remove the Ukip threat.
So dear Ukip candidate keep doing what you are doing and get a great result. Pressure, pressure, pressure and as long as the Ukip leadership promises to do no deals with anyone (and that's a long shot) we may get somewhere.

Eric Edmond said...

MiAll valid points but rumours say the Tories have already chucked in the towel. Cameron is a dead duck. If the Tories want to win they need BoJo whom people like not cast iron whom they distriust.

Eric Edmond said...

Mike,

From your favourite publisher

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/david-cameron/9885680/David-Cameron-attacks-BBC-over-stupid-Eastleigh-by-election-coverage.html

Eric

Mike Bridgeman said...

Hope you are right.

ALAN WOOD said...

The Tories are trying to make the best of a bad job by keeping their candidate out of the limelight. Their election team will be bombarding voters with pamphlets, just like the Lib-Dems. Postal votes may already have been dispatched by the faithful on both sides.
Cameron is beginning to feel the heat - he has few supporters in the BBC, who will be giving the Lib-Dems those subtle helping hands. It works against all non-Socialist parties like BNP, UKIP and even the Tories.
The long game is a poor one for Cameron (or BOJo) in that the likes of the BBC will cheer on Labour and Lib-Dems (ex-SDP types don't forget) in any contest with Tories up to and including the General Election.
EU countries are predominantly Socialist/Ex Communist and the trend is towards eliminating Nationalists in any form. The Tories are a dying party, not helped by the globalist elite working towards taking over national industries. UK is left without major industries to help the balance of payments. Green policies will cripple us.
I do not see how our growing population can hope to live in the manner we have since 1960, and neither the BoE, Lib-Dems, Labour, Tories or UKIP have an answer to the Greek-style chaos that's coming.

Eric Edmond said...

Alan

I agree with you. We have just seen the start of the breakdown of our criminal justice system under the weight of our uneducated natives and immigrants who can't read or speak English and do not understand British culture.

If the BBC thinks it will be immune it won't be.

Mike Bridgeman said...

Have you all seen the latest odds?
Could Ukip get second place?
Just a few days to go.

Eric Edmond said...

Mike,

Tories now at 4/1 against, UKIP 10/1.

Eric

Finance Monger said...

Interesting about the odds shortening. The betting markets are often a very good guide to what will happen and how the parties are performing. LibDem opened 6/4 now 2/5. Con actually opened EVENS and have recently touched as high as 9/1. Lab opened around 12/1 and have touched as high as 200/1 recently. UKIP opened 10/1 then drifted badly all the way to 60/1 before shortening back to 10/1. In other words, the markets give UKIP the same chance as when it all started, something of a poor performance really. The area UKIP have done well is the the winner without Con or LibDem markets having shortened from 7/4 to 1/6 while Labour have gone from 1/2 to 6/1.