This is based on 40 closest marginals where Labour & Tory were neck and neck in 2010 but now Labour has a 8% lead.
ITV report in these seats twice as many Tory voters would switch to UKIP (21%) as Labour voters (10%) So UKIPcould change result.
Interesting that Gudo reports UKIP press lady,the one who sponsors a child in Ghana according to NF, was seen talking today with Labour press man. Something is going on.
ITV poll also reports in these seats 36% prefer Tory govt, 41% prefer Labour. But OPPOSITE for Prime Minister: 44% prefer Cameron as PM, 26% Miliband as PM.
Marginal seats are a result of our corrupt electoral system and means the government is decided by 50000 swng voters in these constituencies so no wonder we get crap governments as the head honchos sit in their safe seats whilst the whole political agenda is tailored to those 50000 voters.
Guido has a great story about Emily Thornberry's QC father in law. (This is presumably what Alan A. J. Johnston meads by social mobility.)
I quote from Gfuido
Emily Thornberry has silenced her eminent father-in-law from speaking out to the press about Ed Miliband and the White Van Dan row. After Edward Nugee was contacted by a diarist from the Daily Mail, Thornberry called the paper back threatening to report them to IPSO and claiming that her husband’s old man was non compos mentis.
For some context ‘Ted’ Nugee remains a practising QC and recently wrote at length to the Times about the legal intricacies concerning sanctions on Russia. But according to a raging Thornberry, the octogenarian was confused because he’s sick and ailing.
When the journalist then phoned Sir Ted to apologise, the QC denied anything of the sort and said he was jolly cross at the suggestion. In fact Nugee Sr. later apologised to the journalist in question for causing them any trouble.
Here is a pic of old Ted without his wig on
He looks fine to me.