Thursday, 9 April 2009

UKIP & other more important matters

I have still not received an answer from Chairman Nuttall to my request to put my appeal against my de-selection on 18th April to an independent panel of our two current SW MEPs. Why are UKIP, ie Farage, so reluctant to grant members fair and transparent hearings? What have they to fear from ordinary members like me? Surely with great intellects like Denny and Duffy to brief him Farage can rebut my arguments with ease. I challenge Farage to take me on in open public debate on 18th April at the Exeter UKIP rally and let the membership judge my case.

Turning to more serious matters, two dates for your diary, 21st April the date of publication of the next UK inflation figures, also the anniversary of the founding of Rome in 753 BC, and 22nd April at 12:30 when Mr Darling will give his budget speech. The two current events are interlinked. CPI inflation, currently at 3.2%,has been over the 2% target target for the last 16 months. RPI is at 0 % only because it includes mortgage costs that have been falling rapidly as the BoE cut its policy rate to 0.5%. More money for those with some types of mortgage but I would guess that is only around 10% of the population. The rest of us are enduring inflation of at least 3%. If on 21st April inflation rises again things for Mr Darling the next day will become difficult.

The government deficit is running at £150 billion annually. It will require huge gilt issuance to fund this deficit but who will buy these gilts and thus lend their money to Gordon. Would you lend any money to Darling Brown? I won't.

In bond parlance the BoE can only control the short end of the yield curve, lending for one year or less roughly. As one moves out to longer maturities of 5, 10, 25 or 40 years inflation expectations increasingly dominate. If the market thinks quantitative easing, ie printing money, is a device to enable Darling Brown to buy the 2010 election then the market will refuse to buy gilts at current rates and may not even buy them at all except at very high rates. Gilts were issued before with 12% coupons and this can easily happen again. Mortgage rates are set off Swap rates and Swap rates are set by gilt rates. So there you have it. How do you fool people until after the next election, the perennial problem for a government party doing badly. Things look grim all round but we can always look to the experience of Mr Mugabe for guidance in these matters.

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