If 4 weeks ago some one had asked me could I envisage a scenario for 4th June in which UKIP was expecting to increase its number of MEPs then I would have admitted defeat. However given all three major parties have managed to shoot themselves in both feet at the same time anything is possible. There is a continuous scale of UKIP MEP possible numbers from 3 to 20 say compared with 12 last time or 11 to allow for the reduction in the number of UK MEP seats.
I think Farage will step down post 4th June whatever the result. Ten or more seats will be a glorious triumph for the great leader to exit on. Less than 10 will be blamed on the usual BNP moles sabotaging the great leader. But the bottom line is NF wants to enjoy the high life in Brussels, large office, large salary, large pension, chauffeur driven limo that will come his way as leader of the IndDem group in Europe without the need to be involved in tedious British domestic politics. It will of course be spun as a necessary fight for UK independence from the EU, allies in Europe etc, but the truth is Farage went native years ago.
Where will that leave UKIP? Bannnerman & Nuttall both have leadership aspirations. Bannerman was and is a Europhile whom the Tories rejected years ago. Nuttall wants to be in Brussels rather than Bootle. The only decent choice for UKIP is Trevor Colman who would undoubtedly work in the UK to free us from the EU yoke but may not want the leader's job.
Coming back to the result the d'Hondt method does pretty well reflect the percentage vote with an obvious cut off on smaller parties that get less than 8% in the South East and 12% in regions with less seats. It is possible to construct scenarios that could deliver a seat to a small party with slightly less than these percentages but it is not likely. So on this basis I give my estimates of the percentage vote necessary to deliver 1 and 2 UKIP MEPs in some areas.
East Mids (5) UKIP gets 1 with 20% and 2 with 36%
Eastern (7) UKIP gets 1 with 14% and 2 with 23%
London (8) UKIP gets 1 with 12% and 2 with20%
North West (8) UKIP gets 1 with 12% and 2 with 20%.
South East (10) UKIP gets 1 with 10% and 2 with 17%
South West (6) UKIP gets 1 with 16% and 2 with 30%
West Mids (6) as for South West
York & Hum (6) as for South West
Wales (4) UKIP gets 1 with 25%
If we look at the recent IPSOS/Mori poll:
CON 40%
LAB 18%
LIB DEM 18%
with the smaller parties splitting nationally:
Scottish/Welsh national: 4%
Greens: 6%
UKIP: 7%
BNP: 4%
Other: 3%
It looks like only a strong regional/personal vote for UKIP will deliver seats with South East NF looking reasonably secure, South West will exceed the national average by a factor of 2 to 3 and Eastern is likely to do well despite Bannerman but could be upset by the Greens and UKF.
There is a considerable North/South split however so although Nuttall looks like having a good chance in Lancashire the BNP may poll strongly there and in Yorkshire and the East Midlands.
It all depends on which poll you believe but it looks like a tough ask for UKIP to get more than 5 seats. What could upset everything is what the Sun comes out with tomorrow and on polling day.
5 comments:
Erm, those are general election voting intentions in that poll Eric, not euro.
Try again with the correct figures, eh?
Hi,
Silly me I thought Tiny Tim was paid to do PR not endlessly snipe like the typical dishonest EUkip leadership - how soon he learns the ways of the EU.
I guess having made a stab at informing all the help one could expect from the BNP styled introspective and bullying liars at EUkip was an unpleasant comment.
Looks like Tiny Tim is just another political whore looking for an income - why am I not surprised as EUkip sure does attract some unpleasant parasites.
Eric does it matter howmany MEPs EUkip get 0 to 3 will be on their merits and ALL the rest will be because of other people's failures.
There is no doubt that the dishonesty and lies of Farage and The Faragista Fan Club of paid Praise singers has been catastrophic for these United Kingdoms.
With not a single solitary candidate of calibre or integrity they will indeed need their liars and disemblers.
There is no party without Farage as he has destroyed it and there are no leaders in the wings - a failed Tory who is not only confused about his parentage but has little knowledge of what a Policy document is - do you recal he PROMISED to deliver 17 full policy documents by February - he failed to deliver a single solitary costed, spell checked adult policy document just some Tory reject policies he brought in his briefcase when they dumped him.
Then there is the BNP look alike liar, bully and general scally parachuted in without election as Farage's puppet chairman.
Trevor Colman is just another bent copper retired who colluded in the criminality of Tom Wise by utterly failing in his duty as a citizen and accepting as 'payolla' the position replacing the dishonest and risible old rascal Graham Booth - he even agreed to continue to pay the liar, cheat and corrupt fixer for Farage who has betrayed members of UKIP for years aided by his wife on a very handsom EU salary.
EUkip sadly has no future as Farage has destroyed it - whether with 2 or 22 MEPs it will never shuck off the vile corruption by people like Moran, Lott, Croucher, Denny, Moran, Bannerman, Reeve, Clark, Booth, Knapman, Farage and their ilk built on sewage by sewage from sewage - just how high can one pile it?
The ONLY thing EUkip has learned in 16 years is how to behave like The EU - growth for growth sake centralising its authoritarian control and increasing its own revenue for its own gain.
EUkip has under Farage's mallevolent and dishonest control used the bully boy tactics, intimidation, lies and corruption we have seen before in EUrope in the rise and not so convincing demise of Fascism.
Regards,
Greg L-W.
Greg,
The failure by Farage to deliver on numerous 'promises' is one of the main reasons he will disappear from the UK domestic political scene.
My substantive point on the election is not which poll you use is irrelevant but what the voting system requires is what matters. TW like all Faragistas is incapable of seeing things as they are.
Come 7th June I may be proven completely wrong but I do agree with you that a maximum of 3 will get in on their merits and the rest on the failure of other people and parties
Hi,
I wondered if you had seen this pack of lies from Nigel Farage:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uAo6FQ9x8QQ
You will note my comment below it:
Greg260146 (2 hours ago) Show Hide 0 Marked as spam
Reply | Remove Nigel Farage lie lies and lies about this issue - having invented his Reichstag Fire Moment he keeps peddling this nonsense. EUkip have not removed a SINGLE BNP member that they have identified merely elected NEC members whom they have lacked the integrity to state were BNP.
The claim is infiltration - name 5 BNP members brave Farage has removed.
This pack of lies from Farage is on a par with his pack of lies about removing Tom Wise, whom he promoted who RESIGNED in March 2009.
FARAGE LIED
Since the only people actually sacked by EUkip that are p[ublic knowledge are:
Martin Hasslam
Dr.David Abbott
Dr. Eric Edmond
Del Young
John West
Niall Warry
Is it Nigel Farage's contention that these individuals were infiltrators for the BNP.
To date Farage has never had one iota of proof that any of these were ever BNP - they may or may not have met a member of The BNP just as Farage has from time to time.
Do remember that the attempt to throw Niall warry out was so criminally dishonest that on the advice of Michael Zucherman he was re-instated and also note that Del Young is Black and they have failed to remove either Dr. Edmond or Dr. Abbott despite mallicious gossip.
It is also worthy of note that Nigel Farage invited Buster Motram to join the party as a family friend and has frequently used him for publicity - also do note Nigel Farage invited Motram to speak to the NEC.
This pack of lies about BNP infiltration is a deliberately creationby Farage and his dishonest cronies, a 'Beneficial Crisis', a technique learned from The EU the developement of which is based on just such dishonest concepts.
The aim would seem to have been to justify Farage's lurch to an authorotarian centrally controlled extreme right wing closet racist (where colour is often represented by difference of creed), to give ground on their natural alies the revolting BNP which Croucher, Searchlight, Common Purouse and the EU itself have done so much to promote.
The stance seems to be to raise the profile and stature of petty vile xenophobic Nationalism to undermine the laudable values of Patriotism.
Farage and his immediate cronies base their entire argument on the style of The BNP, intimidation, unfounded slurs and a tissue of lies.
One must wonder if it is in fact out of stupidity and the failure to realise there is no realistic distance between extremists be they extreme right or extreme left they are equally as vile.
One must ask if the imbecilic and transparent nature of the vile behaviour of EUkip's leadership is of ignorance spurred on by greed as puppets or sentient realisation of what they are doing in which case their behaviour is in many ways worse than their BNP bretheren or even The EU and Common Purpose.
Poloitics has Never been a simple game but a sequence of hands as in a Poker Game.
Having failed to identify a single BNP infiltrator by name with convincing evidence Farage will no doubt continue to lie and deploy his more vile accolytes to spin and weave a new fabric of dishonesties.
Nigel Farage is beyond doubt a liar - a cunning and sometimes, to the gullible, a plausible liar but a liar no less.
The question is whether he is a liar from venal greed and stupidity based on moral dyslexia or is he trained as a liar to betray these United Kingdoms for his masters?
Regards,
Greg L-W.
Greg,
Thank you for your comments re the lies of BNP infiltration. I agree with you completely and also with NF's complete lack of any proof.
This is what I fell out with him 10 minutes into my first NEC meeting. I made it clear to him then that I would not rubber stamp any of his ridiculous tirades and smears without seeing independent evidence to support his claims. To the best of my knowledge Farage has never produced any evidence of BNP moles/infiltrators or whatever in UKIP.
Every journalist I read retelling Farage's lies on BNP infiltration I email suggesting he asks Farage to name one of these claimed infiltrators. So far, no reply
Eric
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