Thursday, 12 August 2010

UKIP gets something right, BoE admits its errors and Ireland has a relapse

I received by email a note of the highlights of the UKIP Torquay conference. I can't get the full details on the members web site as although a member, I am not an approved member! That is approved by Nuttal which requires approval by Farage. So no change there then.

Still it seems Mr Bannerman will be 'unveiling the party’s Positive Vision’ project – a detailed prospectus for the UK’s future outside the European Union, to prove we would be freer, safer and more prosperous if we left.' This is a long overdue move by UKIP. Its serious politics and cuts to the heart of the Europhile's arguments. No British government has ever commissioned a proper cost benefit analysis of our EU membership. Its bleeding obvious boom the 'philes' like K Clarke and Paxman et al of the BBC leave it there. Well its not obvious to me or many others and if the 'philes are so confident of their argument why not put it to the test and kill UKIP stone dead?

UKIP's problem is it will need serious political talent to make this argument and it right now does not have that talent. Farage's cabal drives talent out of UKIP to preserve their place on the pecking order for the gravy train. Bannerman would do well to drop the Campbell. If this debate takes off and he is involved his use of Campbell would blow the whole thing out of the water. It won't stand scrutiny.

MAK coughed yesterday at the BoE quarterly inflation report press conference that their inflation model was not quite fit for purpose. It never was! I and others pointed out its obvious failings but it was a BoE holy cow to which MAK's reputation and subsequent appointment as Governor was linked. I was surprised the reptiles, whom we were kept separate from at the press conference never noticed. The problem will come if the BoE's inflation monitoring reputation has taken a hit in the City as a result.

Meanwhile in the Emerald Isle, part of Euroland, AEP reports in today's DT that Oirish 10 year bonds are now trading at a spread of 297 basis points over Bunds. Like Spain its the property bubble that was at the root of the problem. For comparison, Spanish bond spreads  are at 108 bps and Portuguese bond spreads at 266bps. Greece of course is still way out ahead at 920bps.

Given Ireland introduced draconian public spending well before Boy George it does not auger well for Paddy land or us in the UK.

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