The EU is now more vulnerable than it has ever been since 1972. Its flagship policy, the Euro, is in real danger of failing and in its wake will come huge social and political unrest in the whole EU that the EU cannot manage, control or fudge. The whole EU project will become vastly unpopular even in its Franco Prussian heartland. It is crucial for our cause that UKIP has a leader who can capitalise on this huge unrest and understands its cause. Of the current UKIP leadership contenders Tim Congdon is by far UKIP's best chance of achieving this. He is the only one of the four who has even an embryonic strategy to get us out of the EU and get our country back.
The flaws in the Euro project, obvious to many since its inception, are now being cruelly exposed by the post credit crunch financial markets but make no mistake the cause lies in the Euro's design flaws. It is a political project dressed up as an economic one and as such was bound to fail in the stormy financial weather we have now hit. The same happened in our country in 1972 where our Common Market entry was a political crusade presented as an economic project to benefit the UK. Our country is now crippled under the weight of EU regulation and the financial costs it imposes on us.
The reason the Euro is failing will be blamed on speculators and hedge funds just as Harold Wilson blame the Sterling crisis of 1967 on the 'gnomes of Zurich'. Politicians always find external scapegoats for the result of their own failings. The alternative is they have to resign and lose their income and position. Unthinkable and unspeakable!
The one size fits all Euro is a failure. Forcing super efficient economies like Germany into a monetary union with corrupt and dysfunctional economies like Greece could never work without a federal European government and Treasury which will be the last refuge of the Europhiles on the EU gravy train. Josep Stiglitz, economics Nobel Laureate, writing in yesterday's Sunday Telegraph warns that the wave of austerity now sweeping Europe will be counterproductive. Cutting government spending will increase unemployment and produce real civil unrest. Greece and the other PIGS need a devaluation. Not so obvious but even more important is Germany needs a revaluation to become a net importer. The EU might just survive the former but not the latter.
Trade balances are a zero sum game in the long run. For every country with an export surplus there has to be a matching import deficit. Capital flows enables anomalies to persist for some time but inevitably countries like China and Germany must revalue upwards in their own long term interest.
Only Tim Congdon of the current UKIP leadership contenders can articulate and exploit these problems to try and achieve UKIP's aims. Already hedge funds are relocating from London to Switzerland. The Financial Times reported 1000 jobs had gone and £500mn in tax revenue in the last year. Ireland along with its banks is bust. This is only the tip of the iceberg. Wait until the EU's latest crackpot schemes of 'improved' financial regulation really starts to bite in London!
Thanks to some creative off-balance sheet accounting in the UK on the PFI and public sector pension liabilities our financial mess is not as obvious as Ireland's and the other PIGS but its just as big.
The IRA proved that hitting London concentrates the UK governments mind wonderfully. UKIP has to position itself in London, strategically and tactically to exploit this coming crisis to the maximum to get us UK MP that can exert real and continuing pressure on the UK Europhile political establishment.
Tim is the only candidate who has any realistic prospect of delivering this, our first step to getting our country back for our children.