Thursday, 29 November 2012

By-Election special

Its a fine morning here in Somerset. Let us hope it is the same up North in Rotherham. In case of late information coming into the public domain I looked at the bookies odds again this morning. There is little change from my previous post. In Rotherham UKIP has gone out a tad to 8/1. In Croydon despite Winston's faux pas he is still a 60/1 shot with Respect at 7/1. In Middlesborough UKIP are 100/1, strange in a seat that once elected a monkey mascot as mayor whose platform was free bananas for children.

Talking about monkeys I looked at Tony Butcher's forum today to find I am still attracting the malice of the EUKIP trolls. digging up what I posted there years ago. Legally you cannot be sued for libel for anything you write about a troll because troll's are not people so feel free to write what you like about them. I see I am alleged to have linked Lord Pearson to the Monster Raving Loonies. This I must point out is an old established political party, founded by Screaming Lord Sutch, a genuine aristocrat, which has contested every UK by-election since 1983 so it pre-dates UKIP as the fruit cakes and loonies party of choice [Cast Iron]. Sutch, 3rd Earl of Harrow, had contested by-elections under various party names starting in 1963 just after TWTWTW. It has won seats in local elections and given its aristocratic foundations might well appeal to the more deferential UKIP members.

The other EUKIP troll hate figure Nikki Sinclaire also features in Butcher's forum because of a report published in the Rotherham local paper. Click on link to read what Nikki is alleged to have said. If Bloom or any one else in UKIP feels they have been misrepresented and defamed they can follow the long standing UKIP tradition and take court action.

I will try and up date this later today.

Friday 8:40

Labour win all three by-elections UKIP second in Rotherham and Middlesborough, third in Croydon.

No results last night so I start this morning. Its difficult as our journos are all Leveson navel gazing and can't be bothered to give the full results.

So far I have only found one for Rotherham in the Daily Mail web site.

Sarah Champion (Lab) 9,866 (46.25%, +1.62%)
Jane Collins (UKIP) 4,648 (21.79%, +15.87%)
Marlene Guest (BNP) 1,804 (8.46%, -1.96%)
Yvonne Ridley (Respect) 1,778 (8.34%)
Simon Wilson (C) 1,157 (5.42%, -11.32%)
Electorate 63,420; Turnout 21,330 (33.63%, -25.37%)
2010: Lab majority 10,462 (27.89%) - Turnout 37,506 (59.00%)
MacShane (Lab) 16,741 (44.64%)

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I congratulate Ms Collins on a very good result particularly getting more than twice the Respect vote. BNP clearly has hard core vote in this constituency given how they were ignored during the campaign by the BBC


Andy McDonald (Lab) 10,201 (60.48%, +14.60%)
Richard Elvin (UKIP) 1,990 (11.80%, +8.10%)
George Selmer (LD) 1,672 (9.91%, -10.00%)
Ben Houchen (CON) 1,063 (6.30%, -12.48%)
Imdad Hussain (Peace) 1,060 (6.28%)
Peter Foreman (BNP) 328 (1.94%, -3.90%)
John Malcolm (TUSC) 277 (1.64%)
Mark Heslehurst (ND) 275 (1.63%)

Turnout 26%

Congrats to Mr Elvin. 12% of the vote is good.
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Steve Reed (Lab) 15,898 (64.71%, +8.69%)
Andy Stranack (Con) 4,137 (16.84%, -7.28%)
Winston McKenzie (UKIP) 1,400 (5.70%, +3.97%)
Marisha Ray (LD) 860 (3.50%, -10.48%)
Shasha Islam Khan (Green) 855 (3.48%, +1.51%)
Lee Jasper (Respect) 707 (2.88%, +2.35%)
Stephen Hammond (CPA) 192 (0.78%)
Richard Edmonds (NF) 161 (0.66%)
Ben Stevenson (Comm) 119 (0.48%, +0.17%)
John Cartwright (Loony) 110 (0.45%)
Simon Lane (Nine eleven) 66 (0.27%)
Robin Smith (Young) 63 (0.26%)

Turnout 26.4%
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Memo to Mr McKenzie, watch what you say about homosexuals, they have a vote as well as heterosexuals.

It is disappointing that bastion of brilliant journalism or so we are told does not give the actual results but merely a load of words accompanied by a lot of hand waving.

So did the bookies get it right? Well Yes for the winner Labour but two seconds and a third for UKIP where the bookies had them as almost 2nd in Rotherham, 4th in Croydon and 5th in Middlesborough so only 6 out of 10 for the books.

Was it a good set of results for UKIP. Yes of course it was but should it have been better?

Compare it with the SNP breakthrough in the Hamilton Nov 1967 by election where Winifred Ewing overcame a 71% Labour majority to win the seat with 46% of the vote. (The SNP had previously had an MP but it was during war time.) Winnie lost in 1970 but came back in 1974 to win Moray and Nairn. She was elected as an MEP in 1979 where she became famous in Strasbourg as Madame Ecosse. What is Farages nickname in Brussels? Answers please in comments section of this blog.

It has taken 45 years since Ewing's breakthrough to Alex Salmond getting a referendum in 1314.

This is the path UKIP have to follow to succeed. Can they? Well look at the variety, depth and probity of SNP spokesmen and the look at UKIP's stars, Agnew, Bloom etc.

So my answer is Yes, a good result for UKP but nowhere near good enough. Not even close to winning a seat and Mr McKenzie's ill judged comment on homosexual couples will hang round ULKIP's neck like the Ancient Mariner's albatross.


ALAN WOOD said...

The Strategist, Farage, got it wrong, again.
Dr. Richard North has it right (see EUreferendum blog) - but he was a challenger to Farage because of his intellect. Farage wasted his talents in Brussels so he left.
A good general builds a team using the talents at his disposal.

Eric Edmond said...

Thx Alan,

I look at Richard Norths blog. He is a historian and you need the perspective of history on this. The SNP and the IRA have shown it takes many decades of hard work to break down the established political structures. (I don't know about Plaid Cymru but I guess it will be similar.

So you need to build a part structure that will go forward over that time scale - not Farages scene.

Also I know of no nationalist party that has succeeded by basing itself in the established capital and been supported on establishment money which of course is only available while the nationalists pose no danger to the status quo.


Stephen Harness said...

Excellent and wise summary of the results Eric. A "well done" message as well. Unfortunately time is our enemy and we slip deeper into the the EU abyss while we build these structures.

Eric Edmond said...

Thx Stephen, Yes as timen goes by we become ever more deeply embedded in the EU. The EU crats are very clever, they can bribe EUKIP with money others want preferment. We need people who are in it for the cuase not the Euros and TV media exposure.