The average row makes it clear the swing to Labour and UKIP is almost exactly balanced by Tory & Lib Dem losses. So UKIP like Labour won vote from this very unpopular coalition government. Any government that came into office after Gordon would have been similarly shafted. As Mr Byrne, Brown's Treasury Chief Secretary left on his desk for Laws, the note there is no money left. But Cam and Clegg were desperate to get into power they took the poisoned challice and destroyed their parties for the next three elections. That is a big opportunity for UKIP but are they up to it? Well not the current Farage cabal for sure but some clean skins might just triumph in 16 years time.
UKIP's best result came in Rotherham thanks to the social services in that town. Middlesborough was also very good. Worst was Croydon.
Before we run away with ourselves look at the share of the vote figures I give below:
Labour have 56% of the vote. OK these were up North and Welsh results with none from Southern England and the shires. Allowing for this it looks like a 40% vote share for Red Ed which would put him into Downing Street with a circa 100 seat majority. Look at UKIP's 10.7% compared to the Tory 13.25% and LibDems 6.79%. They could take out the LibDems next time on share of the vote and possibly the Tories the time after next. But how many seats would they get faced with a rock solid Labour vote of 40%+? Not a lot I opine.
UKIP could win a handful if they had a well organised party structure in target constituencies like the SNP had. The trouble is Farage and his cabal have kicked everyone out of UKIP who have the political and organisational skills to do this so its highly unlikely. Farage ain't no Alex Salmond and the people round him are not in the same league as Alec's boys.
Tony and Gord were great political operators. Not only did Tony win 3 elections but Gord made sure they will win the next 3 as well. After this UK economic meltdown nobody will vote fo LibDemCon for a generation.
I expect to see Tony as EU president within 5 years and he will be a real problem for UKIP.