Tuesday, 4 December 2012

Further by-election analysis; Eurozone Banks

I do not agree with many commentators who argue that because of a low turnout, 30% say, that means you can 'reduce' parties share of the vote by 70%. There is no reason to assume those who did not vote are voting against the parties standing. The correct assumption is that these uncast votes will divide the same way as votes that were cast. That's why exit polls give a very good estimate of electoral outcomes with only a small percentage of the voters polled.

There is also a further argument doing the rounds that BNP and UKIP votes are interchangeable that I don't buy because the numbers do not add up. On my spreadsheet it looks like 30% of UKIP votes at most came from previous BNP voters. Despite Farage's claims to the contrary UKIP & BNP fish in the same voter pool but UKIP has successfully widened its pool but not by nearly enough to win any fptp election. To do that UKIP has to get working class Labour votes that some one like Bob Crow of the RMT could deliver. Will Farage step aside to let this happen for the good of our country? Not a hope.

Spain formally requested 40 billion euros to bail out its banks at a late night meeting of euro zone finance ministers. They will need a lot more than that. Meanwhile the word on the Greek buy back is the hedge funds who control  a lot of Greek debt want a higher price than the Greeks are offering so no deal yet.

Christian Noyer, governor of the Banque de France let the cat out of the bag with his demand that the vast majority of Euro business done in London must be brought into the Eurozone ie Paris in Franglais. I have pointed out for many years this was the EU agenda. BoJo would do better to concentrate on repelling the Frogs after the City of London business than trying to prop up Cast Iron's unworkable EU strategy.

French attitudes to us have not changed these last 600 years and hardened after Henry VIII set up his own church,

L'Angleterre, ah, la perfide Angleterre, que le rempart de ses mers rendait inaccessible aux Romains, la foi du Sauveur y est abordée.  

I have decided to do some reading into the origin and working of the Hanseatic League which generated much of this countries' wealth pre Elizabeth Tudor. Where Cannon Street station now stands in the City used to be one of their warehouses. It was a Baltic North German  operation much more aligned to Anglo Saxon thinking, standards and work ethic


Stephen Harness said...

They should bring back 'Spitting Image'. Not quiet as good as the Thatcher days but it would be worth a viewing.

Eric Edmond said...

The Thick of It is pretty good and very true.