Tuesday 19 February 2013

Eastleigh is now a big chance for UKIP if Farage stays away

UKIP is reported this morning at 14% in the latest ComRes national poll. That share of the vote in Eastlleigh would be curtains for Dave and his pro-EU line. The LibDems would win big. It can be done and more!

There is no positive reason for UKIP to be doing so well. Its a rejection of our sordid political elite. A plague on all your houses say the voters nationally. Its a protest vote pure and simple. They are now getting the anti-establishment vote which used to go to the LibDems who are now of course part of the political establishment.

Tennis matches even at Andy Murray's level are won by the player who makes the fewest mistakes not the player who hits the most winners. In politics the surest way of avoiding mistakes is to say nothing. Sure you talk plenty but with minimal content. That is what makes a good politician. I think UKIP's Diane James has now learned that lesson. Calling for a temporary halt to immigration, rightly linking immigration to housing  controls anf green field develeopment, opposing the closure of the Ford factory is all great. It plays well with the electorate and its bomb proof for a protest vote party. Click on link to see and hear Ms James doing it really well. Dare I say it she is far less strident and thus far more effective than Mr Farage.

Maria Hutchings the Tory candidate is meanwhile opening her gob and shooting herself in both feet over private schools n particular. She is losing support hand over fist. The bookies' odds show this. She started level with the LibDems and the latest odds are roughly LibDems 2/1 on and Tories 2/1 against or in approximate  percentages to win LibDems 66%, Tories 33%. Mrs Hutchings is a decent woman but a poor candidate. The Lib Dems are picking up her stop Labour vote. Time for Ms James to squeeze her from the other side.

Labour's candidate, O'Farrell is figuratively and in real life a joke. His pro IRA comments on the IRA Brighton bomb and pro Argentine comments on the Falklands war  where many British soldiers died were born out Labour's visceral hatred of Mrs Thatcher are sinking his campaign before it starts. Why Labour chose a candidate with so much baggage in such a high profile election is beyond me. He is unelectable and Ms James should beat him easily and he can crawl back to HIGNFY where he belongs. There is a big betting market on Betfair for UKIP to beat Labour. You can still get good odds on Ms James. I hope you are reading this Mr Wood. I know you like a nice filly.

Its LibDem's election to lose. Their candidate Mike Thornton is trying to say as little as possible. His problem is that his party is in government both nationally and totally control the local council. Therein lies his problem. LibDems try to be all things to all men to maximise their vote. In particular they want to keep the countryside green and oppose housing on greenfield development. Unfortunately just before the late and unlamented Huhne fell on his shandicaps.word Councillor Thornton voted through a 4000 house greenfield development in Eastleigh. Being in power is nice but it does require you to make decisions which inevitably become electoral  albatrosses. The opposite happened over student fees in 2010. The LibDems never for one moment thought they would have to implement their signed promises!

Thornton's big asset is the Lib Dem machine something I have seen in Yeovil keep Laws in power. I quote from their web site:


"As the party’s weekly briefing itself noted, Mike Thornton’s campaign has broken the party’s by-election records, with “more volunteers, more money raised and more campaign literature delivered in the opening days of the Eastleigh by-election campaign than any other”.
Here a few of the stats:
  • Well over 1,000 Lib Dem volunteers have visited the by-election HQ since it was officially opened on Saturday morning.
  • On Thursday alone, 2,200 phone calls were made to prospective voters and activists knocked on 1,700 doors.
  • More than 650 individual donations have been received through the party’s website and through email appeals in the last six days.
  • 21 of the party’s 57 MPs have already visited: Nick Clegg, Danny Alexander, Ed Davey, Vince Cable, Sir Malcolm Bruce, Sir Nick Harvey, Tim Farron, Jo Swinson, David Laws, Duncan Hames, Andrew Stunell, Simon Wright, Sir Robert Smith, Stephen Gilbert, Tom Brake, Roger Williams, Don Foster, John Leech, Tessa Munt, Mark Williams, John Pugh and Adrian Sanders."

That shows how formidable their activists are and how much effort they are putting into their campaign. They are offering their activists travel plus subsistence to come to Eastleigh and knock on doors and it will win the seat for them.

This is what Farage's EUKIP cannot do and why it will inevitably let down the millions of voters who want to leave the EU. Its all very well for little Arnott to boast of UKIP's 22,000 members but as any military man will tell you unless you can mobilise your troops and get them to the battlefield you cannot win. The LibDems have done that ,UKIP has not. That has always been UKIP's failing. Troops in barracks don't win battles or elections.

I remember being berated on the NEC by Farage over the failure of the SW members to turn out and go to Henley in the by-election caused by BoJo becoming mayor of London. I merely pointed out to NF that Helnley was in his South East region and asked how many UKIPers from there had gone to Henley. Answer there was none.

Eastleigh illustrates why Farage's EUKIP shambles, chief of staff or chief incompetent Steve Crowther,  can never win a Westminster seat. It needs organisation, management and leadership which EUKIP could have had but the talent that could have done this has been hounded out of UKIP to preserve Farage's power base and his sycophant wannabee MEPs place on UKIP slates so they can go to Brussels!

How many UKIP MEPs have been in Eastleigh leafleting the voters? Answers with names below please.

This could have been UKIP's breakthrough into Westminster. It was winnable. The national mood is very favourable for UKIP. The two leading candidates represented a deeply unpopular government. One has shown herself to be a liability and the other is less than inspiring with big local difficulties. The principal opposition party, Labour candidate is unelectable. UKIP had an excellent candidate, presentable and saying the right things. The odds are however stacked against her by Farage's wasted years posturing and drinking in Brussels rather than building up the grassroots base in the UK. He has destroyed many  UKIP branches and made many enemies by so doing.

It still could be for Ms James but it will take a political miracle. I hope Farage butts out and lets the capable Ms James get on with it and take centre stage with the media. Every Farage rant will knock hundreds off her vote so let us pray he stays in Brussels for the next two weeks.

NB Every battle is won or lost before the first shot is fired. Its logistics.

13 comments:

ALAN WOOD said...

The trouble with nice fillies from small stables is that they need a couple of races - they usually run green first time out.

My UK mare is off to do business with a German stallion next week.

The German stallion in the European Parliament looks like checkmating Mr.Cameron's feeble effort over the ECB budget. It's just not cricket !

Eric Edmond said...

This filly is running well, better I would say than any previous entry from the small UKIP stable. Things might improve there if a new trainer takes over.

Its the German mare that is the problem. Yes, that's the problem with abroad, they don't play cricket there you know.

ALAN WOOD said...

From years of past experience it pays to run your horse at a minor track before tackling the big fences. These flashy trainers never learn !
One exception is the European races where they rig the rules to have more than one winner. They even handicap the best horses by doubling their weight to let the "dobbins" become a winner. All with the punters' money who don't know the rules anyway.
That's unkind - the Dutch have a good cricket team and have much in common with the UK - but they prefer cycling with the French round the agricultural areas.

Mike Bridgeman said...

The Ukip filly is doing really well.
I still reckon 10% will be a good result.
What I don't understand is how the Lib Dems are 4 to 1 ON.
Is it organisation, a dislike of the Conservatives (who did quite well here last time out), loyalty to C Huhne or what?
Any ideas?

Mike

ALAN WOOD said...

By-elections are usually fought at an inconvenient time for a Government in mid-term when they are struggling. The public often decide to poke them in the eye.
Then they have to decide who can best do the poking.
Whilst the Lib-Dems have not covered themselves in glory in the coalition they will be seen as the vehicle to gouge the Tories.
Labour have put up a dud candidate to give them a chance in a seat they could not win.
UKIP are the popular choice for the protest vote and will take Tory & Labour votes on the immigration issue also.
All INDEPENDENT candidates have no chance. GREEN candidate must have loved the news that Green policies on energy will put the lights out.
SIMPLES.
As my stable owner said to banker friends when FRANKEL had his last race at ODDS-ON. Put everything you can spare on him. It will be the easiest money you have ever made.
Ditto the LIB-DEMS. Hold your nose and bet it !

Eric Edmond said...

So bet on the LibDems whilst the bookies are still taking bets.

I think UKIP's filly will run well and will end up with 14% of the vote. I see BoJo has been wheeled down to Eastleigh to kick the LibDems in the gonads. Does he not know they are all geldings?

Eric Edmond said...

So bet on the LibDems whilst the bookies are still taking bets.

I think UKIP's filly will run well and will end up with 14% of the vote. I see BoJo has been wheeled down to Eastleigh to kick the LibDems in the gonads. Does he not know they are all geldings?

alan wood said...

Not an invertebrate with hermaphrodite qualities then ?

Eric Edmond said...

That is what BoJo thinks about Cleggy and I concur

Mike Bridgeman said...

I don't go along with that.
The Lib Dems ARE the government-at least part of it.
Where are all the voters who went Conservative last time?
OK some will go to Ukip but also some Lib Dems and Labour will as well.
I think it will be closer than the odds suggest.
The Conservatives at 4/1 are a better bet in my view.

ALAN WOOD said...

you may be right that the result will centre around the Lib-Dems and the Conservatives and that the margin may not be too great.
Odds can be deceiving - it represents the view of the majority betting as to who will win, not the size of the majority.
Perhaps Eric knows if there is spread betting on the margin off the victory ?

Mike Bridgeman said...

Or it could be something to do with this....
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/conservative/9884810/Eastleigh-by-election-Tories-trying-to-hide-candidate.html

Mike

Eric Edmond said...

Well spotted young Mike. I am sure it has a lot to do with it. Tories are now in damage limitation mode.

Alan, I looked at IGIndex, former proprietor S Wheeler but no. They only make a market for General Elections.