Sunday, 10 February 2013

How many UKIP MEPs will go to Eastleigh?

For those who want to suck up to Nigel and enhance their chances of a ticket on the EU gravy train attendance at Eastleigh is obligatory. All UKIP MEP wannabees will attend so I expect Arnott, Towler,  and many others of that ilk to be there. They must however ensure they attend on the same day as the Fuerher and that they speak to the great man as well. There is no point in going if you are not seen there by NF. Drinks afterwards with NF earn extra brownie points.

MEPs wanting to be relected but who are not sure where they stand with the leader must also attend, Batten, Legge, Clarke,  Agnew and especially Natrass. Only Nuttall and Bloom can feel safe by virtue of many drinks shared in the Brussels Bierhaus with the Fuerher.

Who will be the UKIP candidate will be revealed on Tuesday at 10:00 am in Eastleigh in front of the massed ranls of  around 25 UKIP sycophants and wannabees. Unfortunately it looks like Labour might put up one John O'Ferrall comic and star of HIGNFY. I quote from Guido's blog:

Joke Candidate: John O’Farrell Tipped to Fight Eastleigh

Ed MIliband says he wants more working class people and people with an armed forces background to stand for parliament, so the Eastleigh by-election is the first opportunity for Labour to choose someone from that kind of background. Yet Labour heavyweights seem to be swinging behind John O’Farrell, who is about as much of a Labour luvvie as you can get. O’Farrell first appeared on the West End stage when he was 10 years old, writes novels and does comedy for the BBC. He wrote a book with the title Things Can Only Get Better: Eighteen Miserable Years in the Life of a Labour Supporter, 1979-1997.
The man who reputedly invented the grey John Major spitting image character also wrote the jokes for Tony Blair and Gordon Brown. He seems serious about standing, he has stood unsuccessfully for Labour before in 2001. The Labour glitterati are backing him and he has already started campaigning in the constituency. Polly Toynbee has publicly endorsed his candidature and says she will work for his election.

If Labour make an effort they could win against this very unpopular government. If I were Milliband I would see it as chance to hole the coalition below the water line and if they lose well so what. I look forward to Edx2, Hettie and the rest of the gang pitching up at Eastleigh. Labour have had a stall in Eastleigh centre for the last two weeks so I don't think they have given up by a long way.

The Tories will of course make a huge effort. Already 5 cabinet ministersVilliers, Miller, Shapps, Grayling and Young there yesterday. They have a great candidate in Maria Hutchings who is far more leave the EU candidate than UKIP.

The LibDems have a huge number of foot soldiers to deploy. NF has had most of his troops shot for alleged disloyalty to the Fuerher so they are hors de combat as they say in Brussels. Dave also has been doing a bit of shooting, in both feet after his homosexual marriage bill so the Tories will also be a bit thin on the ground. They need Boris from Islington!

The latest opinion poll gives the Lib Dems a 3% lead but its a small poll of 500 so there is a huge margin of uncertainty, I would estimate around 5% . I don't find find such polls a reliable guide in fptp elections, I prefer the bookies odds, click on link to see these for yourself. Befair put the LibDems at 13/15 and the Tories at 14/11. The odds since yesterday have shortened on the LibDemas and lenghthened on the Tories.

For any UKIPers who wish to bet on UKIP winning I am personally prepared to offer today 25/1 up to a bet of £10. All my winnings will go to my favourite charity and I don't even know the UKIP candidate! So come on you sycos and put your money where your mouth is. All winners will also receive 25  NF brownie points.redeemable in the Isle of Man.

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