Friday, 1 March 2013

Why UKIP lost Eastleigh

First congratulations to Diane James. She was fresh, fragrant and excellent. Very good to hear her say Farage could not have done better than she did. I would go further. Farage would not have done as well as Ms James.

Look at who Farage put up as UKIP spokesman on Newsnight last nigh, Neil Hamilton! A man who is synonymous with Tory sleaze at the end of the Major government who helped condemn us to 13 years of Labour rule and slow bankruptcy. That tells you everything about Farage's judgement of  UKIP spokesmen and candidates. He likes sleaze. He is uncomfortable with honest intelligent clean people.  He likes to have people around him with few skeletons he can rattle. It makes him feel secure.

Look at how his protege Andreasen was used by the Tories to damage Diane James' campaign!. Those of us who opposed Andreasen going on a UKIP MEP slate as she failed six candidate criteria were villified by Farage and his trolls and kicked out of UKIP on a dodgy dossier compliled by the Tory mole and defector Bannerman. Pure John LeCarre!

Farage should read Machaevelli's book "The Prince" where he makes the point that a national army fighting for a its homeland is what a ruler can rely on and highly paid mercenaries cannot be relied on. They will always desert when it suits them as Andreasen and Bannerman have done. Farage's latest protege Hamilton is just another mercenary. He is there to get on the EU gravy train and collect £1million for passing Go in Brussels.

The reason UKIP lost this seat they could have won is the total neglect by Farage of bulding up a proper party structure with strong and growing constituency branches. Farages has been doing the opposite, shutting down branches and kicking activists out of the party. For why? They were all fully signed up to UKIP policies. Their only failing was they  rightly questioned Farage's people judgement, Andreasen, Bannerman Hamilton etc . You can't win by shooting your own soldiers.

The LibDems won by getting their postal votes out and back in the first week of the campaign crucially before the Rennard/Clegg scandal broke. They had 6000 votes rougly  in the bag by end of week around  half their final 13342 total vote. UKIP's organisation was pathetic. If I were Ms James this morning I would feel very  let down by my party but what can you expect from an organisation that could not even get their candidates names on the ballot paper in the London assembly elections.

She clearly won the vote on the day hands down but as Edith Cavell said before the German's shot her patriotism is not enough.


ALAN WOOD said...

Spot on Eric.

For the 2010 General Election I advised that UKIP resources were only sufficient to pick Labour marginals to fight, putting all one's resources into them.
The reason was that the Labour vote was (and still is) flaky and should go to UKIP.
After I resigned they ignored my advice and lost every seat heavily.

The runes are going for UKIP now because of circumstance - the economy (thanks to the EU in part), immigration (thanks to the EU), sleaze (thanks to MP's, Lib-Dems & Bankers), Energy prices (thanks to the EU), Rights, lack of housing....etc.etc.

In 4 way marginals UKIP can win MP seats provided that they pick their fights in the General Election, after a good showing in the European elections.

But a week is a long time in politics, let alone 2 years, and the 2013 local elections need to provide a host of winners !

Mike Bridgeman said...

You only get a host of winners at local elections if you have done something to warrant voters support.
That means bottom up politics.
No structure=no success.
And no time to build a base for the local elections.
I fear same old, same old.

Eric Edmond said...

Agreed. That is why Del, David and I were ejected from the NEC. We wamted to build local structure and powerful branches

ALAN WOOD said...

Just read yesterday's Daily Mail.
Andrew Pierce wrote "The hapless Tories were doomed from the start".
They seem to suffer the UKIP disease of lack of activists on the ground and their systems for fighting elections appear to have stalled.
I was struck by the age of the ancient old farts at the count.
With Labour unpopular, Lib-Dems mired in sleaze and Tories losing their edge the opportunity for UKIP is immense.
Anthony King, the analyst, talks of UKIP's slogan at the last general election of "Sod the lot" and how Italy have to some extent agreed ! He highlights jobs, taxes and cost of living as being more important than the EU as a vote-winning issue on the doorstep.
To a great extent the EU impacts on those issues but the link needs explanation.
In the European elections UKIP need to reinforce that message and add in the effect of EU immigration on jobs, crime, pressure on NHS and schools, not enough housing, power and water in the future. Its an open door.
Finally I think that they need to highlight the situation whereby the Far East countries are taking jobs by not paying a minimum wage like UK. They need a UK policy n how they would deal with that in Government for the 2015 elections.
And to save Britain we need to leave the EU to implement our own policies for trade with the Far East.
This hits at the Globalisers so its dangerous territory that the Rochschilds won't like.

Mike Bridgeman said...

Cameron has alienated his own support.
The last straw was gay marriage.
I am told that has been a huge loss of membership in my neck of the woods-but I have no figures or firm evidence.
Cameron won't budge so goodbye Tories.
Ukip are pushing at an open door.
Can't see the point of the Euro elections for Ukip. Hopefully we will be on our way out by then.Ukip's leadership will soon realise they need troops on the ground if they are to maintain their lifestyles and get a seat at Westminster.