My warmest congratulations to all in UKIP for coming first in the European elections and especially to Julia Reid for winning a seat in the SW region. I don't envy her having to work with William Legge whom I always found a very difficult man to deal with.
Hannibal won a great victory over a much bigger Roman army at Cannae on 2nd August 216 BC. One Roman historian reported 70000 Roman dead, 10000 prisoners and 3000 survivors. It was the worst Roman defeat ever. Hannibal's great calvary commander Maharabal urged an immediate attack on Rome. Hannibal prevaricated leading to Hasdrubal's admonition of his chief, "You know how to win a victory but not how to use a victory". The Romans eventually won 16 years later. Rome was never attacked.
Farage should learn this lesson from history. UKIP should now throw everything at next week's Newark by-election. No UKIP MEP should go to Brussels until after the by-election showing their total commitment to winning in the UK. All their MEPs should be seen pounding the pavements of Newark promoting the UKIP cause. Unfortunately thanks to Farage's love of sycophants, they have a poor candidate in Helmer, a broken down old Tory with lots of political baggage whilst the Conservatives have wisely chosen a new, young, bright, shiny clean skin candidate who to defend their 16000 majority. Its a tough test which Farage failed in Bucks.Nevertheless its a battle worth fighting as victory would totally destabilise the Westminster political elite unlike Bucks which was entirely a Farage vanity project with no long strategic value for UKIP. Removing Bercow would have been doing the Tories a huge favour! Winning in Newark will do real damage to Cameron.
Will it happen like this or will the lure of EU lucre tempt UKIP's money loving MEPs away from the fight before the battle is won. Many medieval battles were lost through the cavalry ransacking the enemy baggage train before the battle was won turning victory into defeat. I heard O'Flynn saying on TV that he could 'obviously' not continue as UKIP's head of communications. The siren lure of the EU is strong and O'Flynn won't be the only one to succumb. Of the new intake Julia Reid is the only one I would trust to do the right thing. She fought against the EU in Wislon's fixed 1975 referendum.
If we ever get a referendum Cameron/Milliband will fix it as Wilson did 40 years ago. The only way to get out is to have a block of MPs at Westminster who hold the balance of power. This will enable us to get another referendum if the first is lost. Copy the EU tactics to win our cause and get our country back!
PS we cannot forget the huge support UKIP got from Cameron summed up by Tory blogger Tim Montgomerie thus:
"Spend most of your time as Tory leader ignoring the issue that matters most to your activist members: Europe. Launch your bid to be leader by promising to introduce a tax allowance for married couples and then, once you’ve won power, fail to deliver that pledge at four successive Budgets. Tell parents that they can set up any school they want as long as it’s not the one they most want, a grammar school. Stop Gordon Brown holding a honeymoon election in 2007 by promising to abolish inheritance tax but then put it up in office. Spend the general election campaign talking about an issue that no one understands — the Big Society — and don’t talk about immigration, an issue that three-quarters of voters do care about. Subsidise expensive renewable energies at a time when families are struggling to pay their electricity bills. Form a coalition with the Liberal Democrats even though 80 per cent of your members want you to lead a minority government. Promise not to reorganise the NHS, then reorganise it anyway. Oppose press regulation but then embrace it. Keep pledging to tackle European human rights laws but do nothing when Abu Qatada proves again and again that Britain is run by inventive lawyers rather than democratically-drafted laws. Insist that you want to reach out to northern and poorer parts of Britain but stuff your Downing Street operation with southern chums who attended the same elite private schools as you. And, just for good measure, insult people who normally vote for your party as clowns, fruitcakes and closet racists.”