Thursday, 28 August 2014

Carswell's defection to UKIP forces by-election in Clacton

A definite loss for Cameron whose Tories will have to fight a by-election he wished to avoid at all costs. Milliband is the clear potential winner from this defection as Carswell may well not hold the seat and let in Labour on a split vote. Carswell got 22.8k last time and Labour 10.8k so it might well be a tight three way fight. The Scottish referendum result will also be relevant. A win for the SNP will hit the Tories badly. A win for the No led by labour's Darling will boost Labour. Its a no win situation for Dave!

It will be a huge boost for UKIP if Carswell holds on to win the seat. I hope he knows what he is doing and has a long spoon. Still, it makes things very interesting.

The current UKIP PPC for Clacton is less than ecstatic however. I quote from Guido

Just How “Delighted” Is UKIP’s Clacton Candidate?

In the post-press conference throng this morning, Guido overheard senior UKIP officials confidently assuring each other that their current candidate in Clacton “will be delighted” with the news that Carswell would be usurping him.
Lets see how that is going…
“Until they fire me, shoot me or blow me out of the party for being a rebel then I’m here,” Roger Lord tells Buzzfeed:
“As far as I’m concerned I’m carrying on.If Mr Carswell wants to join us then he can get in the queue and hand out leaflets with the rest of us. Now that I’ve announced my campaign team, which now includes many members of his campaign team, his vote looks to be sinking quite quickly.”
Yep, he sounds delighted.

UPDATE: Mr Lord should have read his UKIP constitution. Rule S24 says the NEC chooses the candidate in the event of a by-election. Guido is not sure if that counts as firing, shooting or blowing. 
UPDATE II: Statement from UKIP party secretary tells Guido:
 “Roger Lord is not now, nor has he ever been the by-election candidate for Clacton.  The National Executive Committee of the Party have voted to adopt Douglas Carswell as the candidate for the upcoming by-election.  Roger Lord is mistaken in his belief that he is the candidate and he can best serve the party’s and the county’s interests by standing behind the decision of the NEC”

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