I give summary results of Ashcroft's latest poll in Heywood & Middleton below:
Which, if any, of the following reasons played a part in your decision to vote for % and reason
ALL Con voters Lab voters UKIP voters
They have the best policies on issues I care about 79 84 78 77
The party I’d like to win the next general election 70 81 80 57
The party that has the best candidate locally 46 43 53 36
The party that has the best leader nationally 43 73 39 41
(All i presume is the 3 column weighted average)
UKIP scores as well as Labour on policy with its voters and slightly behind the Tory voter. I conclude the UKIP policies are as popular with their voters as main party policies are with their supporters.
Its even stevens, 80% each, as voters wanting their party to win. UKIP supporters are clearly not as keen on a UKIP government. Why?
The answer is clearly that UKIP and Labour voters are not that keen on their leader becoming PM. I opine that is because Milliband is seen as 'weird' and Farage is not popular with women voters who make up over half the UKIP numbers.
Cameron is seen as the most prime ministerial scarcely surprising as he is in office and for all Farage's efforts to appear normal, pub, beer, fags etc its not working 100%. The women don't like him!
That UKIP's candidate does not go down welll with the faithful is not surprising given he has been hawked around a couple of North West constituencies previously.