Monday, 27 October 2014

Who will be the first UKIP MEP to fall out with Farage

Farage has a long track record of losing MEPs rather quickly as he rounds up the EU Euros and corals them in the IOM . The current crop of UKIP MEPs are  to say the least undistinguished however in the interests of livening things up I will give odds on when the first excommunication will be ordered by Pope Farage the infallible.

Those who have gone before like Nikki have often cited Nigel's nasty mid- European neo fascist friends that he has in Brussels. Bannerman developed a middle aged crush and undying admiration for Dave and Marta found the laissez fair UKIP finances difficult to stomach and also joined the Tories..

I find this difficult as I know less than half the new intake who seem to be ex-Tories who have jumped on the bandwagon ,sorry joined the party in the last two years or so.

There are very few who could perhaps find a berth in another party on their own merits:

O'Flynn, Diane James and possibly Aker and Woolfe

Then there is the old guard who would never get preferment in any other party

The rest are Johnny come lately morally flexible ex-Tories and fit the description easy come easy go and only have the leader's fickle favour to recommend them.

After the General election May 2015 reality will dawn when UKIP win only a handful of MPs. In disappointment blame will be delegated to those judged disloyal by the Fuerher. I would rate this an even money chance by end 2015. If Farage is then in Westminster and has to resign as an MEP then the Brussels mice will play. In that scenario with Farage struggling to make a mark in Westminster there would eventually be many Bannerman like MEP defections back to the Tories to secure their 2019 place on the gravy train as Bannerman secured his this year and Andreasen just missed. I would expect an increasing number of UKIP MEP defections as June 2019 approaches. How many? Around 15 in total seems a good central estimate with a range 10 to 20.


Mike Bridgeman said...

I would hope that we have no need for any MEPs by 2019 and that my crystal ball is better than yours Eric.

Eric Edmond said...

Let us hope you are correct.

Mike Bridgeman said...

We have to support UKIP-it's the only game in town.

Eric Edmond said...

I think Alan Sked is setting up something but he is obssessed with centre left. Me, I prefer to ditch this right left false dichotomy which traps you in old politics. Plain common sense is what I believe in not dogma.