Farage has a long track record of losing MEPs rather quickly as he rounds up the EU Euros and corals them in the IOM . The current crop of UKIP MEPs are to say the least undistinguished however in the interests of livening things up I will give odds on when the first excommunication will be ordered by Pope Farage the infallible.
Those who have gone before like Nikki have often cited Nigel's nasty mid- European neo fascist friends that he has in Brussels. Bannerman developed a middle aged crush and undying admiration for Dave and Marta found the laissez fair UKIP finances difficult to stomach and also joined the Tories..
I find this difficult as I know less than half the new intake who seem to be ex-Tories who have jumped on the bandwagon ,sorry joined the party in the last two years or so.
There are very few who could perhaps find a berth in another party on their own merits:
O'Flynn, Diane James and possibly Aker and Woolfe
Then there is the old guard who would never get preferment in any other party
The rest are Johnny come lately morally flexible ex-Tories and fit the description easy come easy go and only have the leader's fickle favour to recommend them.
After the General election May 2015 reality will dawn when UKIP win only a handful of MPs. In disappointment blame will be delegated to those judged disloyal by the Fuerher. I would rate this an even money chance by end 2015. If Farage is then in Westminster and has to resign as an MEP then the Brussels mice will play. In that scenario with Farage struggling to make a mark in Westminster there would eventually be many Bannerman like MEP defections back to the Tories to secure their 2019 place on the gravy train as Bannerman secured his this year and Andreasen just missed. I would expect an increasing number of UKIP MEP defections as June 2019 approaches. How many? Around 15 in total seems a good central estimate with a range 10 to 20.