Saturday, 28 February 2015

Thanet Election odds and opinion polls

The Ladbroke's odds quoted by the man from Wolf Hall translate to probabilities of winning the seat as follows

UKIP    65%
Tory      22%
Labour  10%
Publican 1%
Lib Dem 1%

The most recent poll of 1000 respondents funded by ex-bookie & Farage supporter Al Bown and published in the Express (where else!) gave voting intentions as follows

UKIP    39%
Tory      27%
Labour  27%
Publican 1%
Lib Dem 1%
Greens    3%

Given the maths involved in going from a vote percentage to a winner I won't try and reproduce the calculations here but take my word for it these results are in agreement.

The opinion poll shows the only danger to Farage would be tactical voting by Tories voting Labour or vice versa. Both groups are so tribal in their loyalties either scenario is very unlikely so Farage will be safe.

Greens don't appear in the Ladbroke odds derived figures as the bookies think their chance of winning is zilch


Henry IX said...

Hang on, on Thursday you said Farage had "no chance", now it's safe!!!! U is thicker than 2 short planks!!! It's so depressing to think that useless civil servants like you have been running this country for the past generation, no wonder we're so stuffed!

Eric Edmond said...

The opinion poll which Montgomerie quoted gave a large vote agaist Farage. I based my comments on this. It now looks like a rogue poll like when the 3 amigos rode up to Scotland dishing out dosh.