Wednesday 22 July 2015

Farage's UKIP failure. 61% of UK population wants to stay in the EU, 27% want to leave

These figures are from today's piece by Jeremy Warner in today's Telegraph. Click to read full piece.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/11754173/Why-does-the-UK-love-the-EU-when-most-of-Europe-seems-to-hate-it.html

As Warner's headline says more and more Europeans want to leave the EU but more and more Brits want to stay in. This sums up Farage & UKIP's abject falure to connect with middle Britain in the middle of the worst ever Eurozone crisis.

His piece is based on a 500 sample size Isos Mori poll carried out mid June 2015 results below.

Q If there were a referendum now on whether Britain should stay in or get out of the European Union, how would you vote?
Base:AllAll expressing an opinion
 Stay inGet outDon't
know
Stay inGet out
 %%%%%
14-16 June 20156127126931
Base: Asked of half the sample (c.500 GB adults aged 18+)
Q Should the United Kingdom remain a member of the European Union?
Base:AllAll expressing an opinion
 YesNoDon't
know
Stay inGet out
 %%%%%
14-16 June 20156622127525
Base: Asked of half the sample (c.500 GB adults aged 18+)

Now 500 is not a large sample. General Eection polls use sample size of at least 1000 and as the graph, which I cannot copy, in Warners piece shows the results are quite volatile. Nevertheless the question reemains why in the middle of an existential Euro crisis do more Brits than ever want to stay in the EU? Warner does not really answer that question. I will try to.

UK citizens are in Andrew Neil's favourite word 'feart'. The BBC, the CBI, the political elite have been working hard to stoke up this fear of leaving the EU but as Roosovelt said we have nothing to fear but fear itself. The EU need us more than we need the EU so we have nothing to be afraid of. Its human nature to prefer the known to the unknown but the known about the EU is awful ie the Greek tradgedy. Its difficult to envisage an unknown worse than what is now happening in Athens.

As always our best ally is the overweaning hubris of the EU political elite lead by that dodgy mid-European Juncker which I fear will lead the EU into a military conflict with Russia in the Ukraine. To parody Franco during the Spanish Civil war  " How many divisions does the Pope have?" Answer about as many as Herr Juncker, not a lot!

Add in the EU created Greek mess tipe to fall into Putin's lap and you can see why the Yanks are worried. Is Obama up to it? I doubt it. He is no Rooovelt.

The risks to UK citizens of life outside the EU are therefore a lot less than life in the EU.  Is that too difficult for you to articulate Mr Farage?


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