Thursday, 22 March 2018

UK Govt strategic Brexit mistakes or was it deliberate sabotage thereafter?

In our Referendum of 23 June 1916 we voted to leave the EU by a substantial margin. It came as a complete shock to the political elite  who could not accept the people's clear answer. The elite responded with their time  honoured tactics , delay and obfuscate.

Cameron resigned on 24th June and the Tories embarked on their leadership election process, a  procedure designed by the political class with Tory  MPs alone.allowed to participate until the final two candidates when the ordinary members would be given a choice of the last two. The process never got to the ordinary members as Johnson, Leadsom and Gove leading figures in the Leave campaign were one by one politically assassinated by the Tory/Civil Service establishment and and this pro EU remain establishment stayed firmly in control.

On 5th July May won the first two rounds round of ballot and on 11th July Leadsom withdrew from the after being set up by the media On 11 July. May was appointed party leader later that day and Prime Minister on 13 July.  The establishment , Tory and Civil Service got the PM they wanted one they could easily manipulate. 

A post-contest analysis in The Daily Telegraph noted that the £275,000 contributions to Theresa May's campaign "dwarfed her rivals", and Cameron's original honours list contained the names of two major Conservative party donors who supported May's campaign

 Leadsom said that she would not rule out involving Nigel Farage, then the leader of the UK Independence Party (UKIP), in Brexit negotiations; the May campaign criticised Leadsom for claimed UKIP links.[17] Leadsom had approached the Johnson campaign with a proposed deal not to run in exchange for being made one of his top three ministers. Johnson agreed to the deal, but was too late in communicating the decision, and Leadsom chose to run for leader.

Leadsom wanted a quick triggering of Article 50. Strategically the correct decision for our country  but clearly undermined by Sir Jeremy

First big mistake, agreeing to EU negotiating time table. Dig in your heels at the  start shows theEU you won't be easily pushed around.

The second huge error was to ask for a transition period handing yet more power to the EU. We should have stuck with the article 50 timetable and played it straight down the line. Asking for variations in an agreed contract gives the other side carte blanche to screw you which is what has happened.Two years was time enough to do the deal.The CBI fat cats are paid huge salaries. Let them show us they are worth their money and do some real management.

I added above para this morning to cover an important omission.

Rather than going for an immediate triggering of Article 59 she delayed a year to to "get her ducks in a row" no doubt persuaded by  Sir Jeremy. This advice would appeal to Mrs May's ultra cautious nature but it also gave the Remainers time to regroup which they exploited to the full. Mrs May of course was herself a Remainer so it could be seen as the first step in betraying Brexit . It was the first of a number of strategic errors from Mrs May

All five candidates for the Conservative leadership had said that they would not call an early general election, relying instead on the Conservative mandate secured at the 2015 election.[19] 

May the reneged on this commitment and held a General Election on 9th June 2017 at which she lost her overall majority and became dependent on the DUP.  Paradoxically the DUP may be the saviour of our country as it cannot be as easily manipulated by Sir Jeremy.

So May is not a woman to be trusted  and given her history is it any wonder she has just betrayed our Fishing Industry to the EU. 

If it smells like sabotage and looks like sabotage then we just have to accept May is a self seeking fifth columnist.

The Remain campaign is now in full cry and will be impossible to stop in my opinion. Thanks to May they have had the time put together s formidable alliance:

Big business led by the CBI
Most of the print media
The Labour party and of course the Lib Dems
The Civil Service

It all goes to show that the decent hardworking people of the UK have again been betrayed by the London based political elite who will ensure we are sold to the EU lock, stock and barrel.

I weep for our country

The Tories will eventually knife and ditch Mrs May but  by then for us it will be too late.Our only hope is the Protestant DUP and the Catholic Rees Mogg..otherwise May will sell us out tot he EU again.


Anonymous said...

Which begs the question just why did she call the 9 July 2017 General Election with the questionable manifesto.

Niall Warry said...

The only answer to date, that I'm aware of, is the introduction of the six demnands of The Harrogate Agenda that will help prevent the 'People' being duped buy the political illiberal elite.

Edward Spalton said...

Dr Edmonds

Like you, I initially favoured Leadsom as potential Conservative leader. Unlike you, I dropped her like a hot brick when she talked of
Instantly triggering Article 50. To do so without a thoroughly researched negotiating position, capable of at least preliminary agreement within the time limit was, as Sir Humphrey might say " Very courageous, Prime Minister" - a demonstration of that invincible combination of
arrogance and ignorance which characterises Conservative thinking.
And it persists in the highest levels still. As recently as January, David Davis was whingeing that the EU was treating us like a " Third Country" - but a Third Country was exactly what Mrs May demanded we should become in her Lancaster House speech of January 2017. It does not mean Third World or Third Rate but something like Third Party I.e. Independent of the treaty arrangements between EU countries. For most of 2017 ministers believed they could " have their cake and eat it" - that is - become a Third a Country but expect the EU to go on treating our products as if we were still a member.

Since the election HMG has been dodging contact with business. The business council which Mrs May set up has not met for five months.
Downing Street has been seeking someone in whose reputation business could trust since the election - to be top spokesman - but nobody wants the job. In the meantime the EU has been issuing " notices to stakeholders" setting out the legal and regulatory changes which flow from Brexit but from HMG to British businesses - nothing!

It's not as if HMG doesn't know the rules. They are the same as those which HMRC, Port Health Authorities and local authorities apply to goods from outside the EU arriving here. Southampton handled 1.3 million such containers a year.
So Mrs May has negotiated some extra time under draconian conditions to kick the can down the road in the hope that something will turn up.

L fairfax said...

The UKIP strategy of having a referendum was always flawed.
Imagine that you had a daughter who was married to someone you didn't like. If you could get the marriage annulled she would just live in sin with him.
The only solution would be to change her mind.
In the case of the UK the only solution was to change the Government, UKIP should never had campaigned for the referendum but tried to a) stop further integration b) change the voting system c) get more power in Government.

Stephen Harness said...

UKIP sacrifised themselves on the issue of a referendum. I do not believe the EU is open to reform or it would be possible to prevent further integration. The EU has a destination, you either board the train and sit comfortably or ideally never get on. We have chosen to get off thank goodness. There would never have been a referendum without UKIP.
May is a compromise leader and in position because there is nobody else.

L fairfax said...

But have we got off the train? I think we are still on it but think we are not.