Wednesday, 4 April 2018

The threat is always more effective than the act

Putin is a good chess player as are most Russians as I know to my cost. Threats are a very important chess tactic. There is an apocryphal story of a tournament chess game between  two Russian chess masters. Smoking was banned. One of these masters was known for smoking cigars,,the other hated cigar smoke. At the start of the game the smoker produced a large cigar and placed it by the side of the board but did not light it. The cigar phobe immediately sent for the tournament director and complained about his opponent's action. The director pointed out the cigar phile was not actually smoking.The cigar phobe replied but  he is threatening to smoke!

Putin does this when he goes to see Merkel who is frightened of dogs, Putin takes his biggest hunting dog, and sits it down well away from Merkel but makes sure Merkel can see it. .Merkel is unsettled and Putin is on the way to winning.

You get a similar sentiment in financial market where the phrase is buy the rumour, sell the fact.

Our FCO and our military have never understood or used this simple tactic to our country's cost. It is time to rustle up a few threats to disturb Barnier's immaculate hair style. BoJo is the obvious man to do this. We have to sharpen up our act in the Brexit negotiations. Learn from Putin and stop criticisiig him. Like Trump he is a crude but effective threat operator.Our  FCO/Army is polite but ineffective.. Trump and Putin are easily winning the diplomatic war because they are better tacticians than our FCO/Army.

Lets start threatening to do what the EU don't' want to give us. That's why we still need UKIP. We got our referendum when UKIP terrified Cameron over the threat to Tory votes and seats.

No UKIP means the threat to the Tory and Labour seats disappears and and they can quietly forget our independence cause.  Our political elite and the BBC would love that to happen  and they could return to relatively safe non-issues  like Schools and Hospitals and doubtful Russian nerve agents.

We need UKIP extant.


Stephen Harness said...

I have a lot of time for Gerard Batten. He has always worked quietly in his own style and always tried to be educational in his literature. Completely different style to Nigel Farage. However I suspect the lack of planning for post-referendum has left them a meaningless party with no ambition. A Brexit betrayal will give them something to fight for and rebuild if there is the appetite and dosh. No MEPs with snouts in the trough to represent them in the media. UKIP Councillors disappearing on a daily basis and it is councillors that beget MPs.
My experience is that I would not trust them with one penny of my money. Been there and got burnt. Old wounds opened up yet again, will have to take more medication!!!!

Niall Warry said...

Whether you will ever acknowledge this or not is up to you but our relationship with the EU has sides to it.

First, the political which we need to leave as supranational constructs are undemocratic and eventually always fail.

Second, our trading relationship which like it or not is within the Single Market part of the most complex, sophisticated and yes successful trading block in the world. On an interim basis we should keep our existing trade via the Efta/EEA option and NEVER forget ALL trade agreements require following rules,regulations,costs and adherance to an adjudication process.

Eric Edmond said...

Major,I would call the EU corrupt and undemocratic but a successful trading block? You have to produce sourced trade figures to support these claims of yours and I presume Booker's. Try comparing it with US Canada or US China trade.

Niall Warry said...

Trying reading the blog 'EU referendum' every day and you will not fail to become aware of the
need, only on an interim basis, to remain as closely linked to the Single Market as possible.

This is NOT only an issue of tariffs but FAR more importantly Non Trade Barriers.

The only way to do this in the time available, even with Mrs May's vassal status during the transition period, is to remain in the EEA. Joining Efta would be the simplest route but we could negotiate to stay in the EEA without being in Efta.

Eric Edmond said...

Numbers needed Major not bull.

Niall Warry said...

You are incorrigible -just because you accuse me of 'bull' doesn't maker it so.

Here are a few facts:-

"The key country the UK exports to is the US - with goods worth £37.37bn. But combined it exports much more to trading partners in the EU like Germany (£31.20bn) the Netherlands (£23.07bn), France (£18.89bn) and Ireland (£18.37bn).29 Oct 2015"

So if you add up the EU countries in the Single Market and compare to USA you get £37b to £90b.

Nuff said my Lord.

PLUS our future trade relationship is not really an issue over Tariffs but the far great number and complexity of Non Tariff Barriers.

Go figure Eric - as they say on the streets.

Eric Edmond said...

Not an answer to the question I asked, what is the world's biggest trading bloc but I do agree its non-tariff barriers that are far more important.

Niall Warry said...

Well that's an improvement as I seem to recall you being fixated by tariffs a while back.

I was not avoiding your question and the answer is the three biggest markets to develop in priority order are USA, China and India which are at liberty to do if we adopt the Efta/EEA option but cannot while in the EU and Single Market.

The Leave Alliance, of which I was a part, has ALWAYS said the Efta/EEA option is only an INTERIM deal to maintain our existing trade within the Single Market which is CURRENTLY our biggest market as quantified above.

I will repeat ssomething you appear to overlook which is that ALL trade deals with one country or with a collection of countries takes Time (EU/Canada took seven years), Rules, Regulations, Costs and the setting up and financing of an Adjudication process.

Permission to fall out or do have further questions??