Sunday, 31 January 2010

A funny thing happened on the way to the Forum

Cameron, Osborne & Hague rolled up at Davos having discovered the Greek debt crisis was rather like the UK debt problems. I am starting to think wee George or more likely his chief of staff Matthew Hancock is an avid reader of this blog. Matthew and I had ajoining offices on the Bank of England Mezzanine floor and I well remember him storming off after losing an argument with me to return one minute later and stick his head round the door to tell me and another BoE staffer we were 'Complete Bastards', his John Major moment.

Seriously Matthew is an able guy and I just hope Osborne lets Matthew do the economic thinking and contents himself to be the mouthpiece.

The Greeks were running round at Davos talking to the experts but they have now realised that the Franco Prussian EU empire is not going to help them out so they will have to go cap in hand to that Anglo Saxon, US run Bretton Woods invention, the IMF to bail them out. Alas the evil empire, lacking a classical education, is not quite up to sorting out Greek tragedies.

Th Greek disaster is now top of the political agenda with the Queen of the Night himself, Lord Mandy, being wheeled out to rubbish Osborne and Cameron for spouting their unpatriotic views to Johnny Foreigner at Davos and undermining Gordon's re-election effort. It all sounds like the Farage rubbishing of anyone who criticises his silly actions as enemies of UKIP who must be eliminated. Johhny F whose money we need, wants to hear what we are going to do about reducing our debt and the UK voters want to hear how UKIP are going to clean up their act, stop employing their wives and start working in the UK not drinking in the bars of Brussels.

Remember you read it all here first and await the Spring for the first outbreak of street riots by the unemployed youth of Greece and Spain.

Saturday, 30 January 2010

Greek Bonds and Chinese Whispers

The old Morecombe & Wise gag went, how much is a Greek Urn? Oh about £20 a week. The problem today is that an awful lot of Greeks don't earn anything at all and like many in the UK live on social security. Worse, the Greek budget deficit is 13% of GDP and their current account deficit is even bigger at 15%. The UK government figures are not to dissimilar but at least between us and the Greeks are the Spanish, Portuguese, Italians and the Irish. All except the Irish are in denial. So are we until after the General Election.

On Tuesday I was staggered to read that the Greeks had got a 5 year, 8bn Euro bond away at 5.91% covered 3times! How on earth did they do that. It simply beggared belief. The Greek bund spread contracted by 9 bps and the Greek government congratulated itself as being Olympian. After hubris comes nemesis. On Thursday the truth was revealed that these Greek bonds had been bough on the back of a rumour that the Chinese had bought a fair tranche of these bonds. (The Chinese are trying to diversify away from US dollar denominated treasuries so it there was some superficial backing for the story.) On Thursday both the Chinese and Greek authorities denied this story and the shit hit the fan. Greek bond yields jumped by 40+ basis points to 7.15%, a crippling rate of interest for the Greek economy. Evil speculators were invoked by the Greek government. Gnomes of Zurich?

The German economics minister Rainer Bruderle then put the (jack) boot in by saying "A few European nations are exhibiting dangerous weaknesses that could have fatal consequences for all countries in the Eurozone. He then added that all countries must solve its own problems. The helpful Mr Soros, he who helped Sterling into the ERM disaster, added, "Germany is not in a mood to be the deep pocket for what they consider to be profligate Southern neighbours". The French want a Greek rescue but as always want the Germans to pay for it. Worse for the French the Euro fell heavily against the dollar as a result of these shenanigans.

All is not well on this front in Gordon's disunited kingdom either. The evil PIMCO that employs Balls minor advised against buying UK gilts as they were 'resting on a bed of nitroglycerine'. They added that they saw an 80% chance of a UK debt credit rating downgrade if the Government does not produce a credible plan, as the Irish have, to sharply reduce the UK's £180bn deficit. This we all know is impossible as it would finish Gordon electorally so it looks like we will face a debt spiral with the UK forced to pay higher and higher interest rate on its debts. Corporate UK is in a similar mess. UK rates will rise as soon as QE, aka money printing, stops

The real threat to the EU comes if Spain goes as well. Youth unemployment there is near 50% and the property market is in melt down. Talk to anyone trying to sell their place in the sun. Unemployed youth without hope spells civil unrest not just in Spain and Greece but also Portugal and Italy. These countries all have strong and active Communist parties waiting to capitalise on disaffected youth.

I have warned of this impending EU problem for the last year. It is now hitting the main news bulletins. What plans does Mr Farage/Lord P have to capitalise on this situation? Well none that I have heard. Its a great opportunity for UKIP as the bond market, as Bill Clinton found out, is more powerful than any government. If you have any ideas for Mr F or Lord P please post a comment on this blog.

Wednesday, 27 January 2010

Nikki Sinclaire Affair continued

Farage's obsession with EU money and leading a Pan European party is nothing new. During the last Euro parliament it drove Roger Knapman out of the IndDem group to sit with the unaligned Hannan and Helmer as Nikki now does. Roger sought a democratic mandate for his action from the South West membership and received 92% support for his actions. I reproduce Roger's letter to the membership below.

Office of Roger Knapman MEP
Email: website:

10 April 2008

Dear Member

I would like to know your views on an important issue of principle that affects our Party and our cause. I am therefore carrying out this thorough consultation exercise and have pledged to be bound by the result.

I enclose a voting paper and freepost envelope. Please return this as soon as you can. This issue is important because it is about where we position ourselves as a Party. It is also about where our priorities lie. These are the fundamental questions as I see them:

Should UKIP concentrate its efforts in the UK and have only a limited involvement in the European Parliament, or should we put major effort into participating fully in the European Parliament process?

Should we join with other Parties in working for reform of the EU from within (whilst retaining of course our long-term withdrawalist agenda) or should we stick solely and purely to the principle of withdrawal?

Currently UKIP is an integral part of the Ind/Dem Group in the European Parliament. At first there seemed to be some attractions in this, but the way things developed has gave me growing doubts. For some time now I have been arguing privately that we should withdraw.

The recent statement from the co-leader of the Group that he has been converted from wanting withdrawal to reform of the EU is really the final straw. I feel I must now detach myself from IndDem. If I did, I would technically sit as a non-aligned UKIP MEP, like the non-aligned Tory MEPs Roger Helmer and Daniel Hannan who similarly object to being part of a European Group.

If I give this lead I hope fellow UKIP MEPs will follow. I would, of course, remain a full member of UKIP and it would be my intention to devote the bulk of my energies to campaigning for the Party in the South West.

To enable you to pass an informed opinion, I enclose a summary of the arguments.
This is an issue of principle and therefore about the direction of our Party. This is your Party and so this is your choice.

Yours sincerely

Roger Knapman MEP

PS Please let me have your views on the ballot paper in the enclosed newsletter.

It is clear Farage is determined to lead UKIP into a Pan European reformist party with himself as leader at all costs. First Roger now Nikki.

In the UKIP constitution it states UKIP is a non-racist, non sectarian democratic party. Nikki as UK MEP, democratically elected, on that mandate is honour bound to her electorate to refuse to sit with the racist, neo-Nazi parties that comprise the non-UKIP part of the EFD group. I unequivocally support her stand on this huge point of principle. Farage and his Cabal are selling UKIP out to the EU. We must all support Nikki in her struggle and let her know she has her support.

Nikki is due to appear before the NEC on Monday to answer these trumped up charges against her. I have been there. It insults Aussie wild life to describe it as a kangaroo court. She will be judged by people like Clark who signed us up to the EU subsidiarity principle against UKIP policy and Gill who waived half a dozen UKIP rules to allow Andreasen to stand as a UKIP candidate and who has already instigated actions detrimental to Nikki. She can expect no natural justice from the NEC but it does not end there. As an elected representative of the UK people Nikki can, and I hope will, seek the protection of the UK courts in this matter so that Farage and his Cabal can be held up to the public ridicule they deserve for their arrogant and self seeking actions.

Tuesday, 26 January 2010

Nikki Sinclaire Affair

I have a strong feeling of deja vu relating to my own experiences of being kicked off the UKIP NEC by the Cabal when I read Nikki's statements about what has happened to her. Her quote to the Birmingham Post, “If you were to ask me whether I am still a UKIP MEP, I would have to say I don’t know.” was exactly my position after I left the NEC September 08 meeting after a torrent of Cabal abuse to clarify my legal position just as Nikki is taking legal advice on her position. Previously Del Young had found himself in a similar position when he believed he had been removed as head of Young Independence.

Similarly I can identify with Nikki's statement, “My fear is that UKIP is breaking the contract it made with the people of the West Midlands, because they voted for a UKIP MEP and that’s what they should get.” I did not want to go on the NEC. I stood because I was asked to by SW members who felt it was not right that the South West, the largest membership in the country, should not have a single representative on the NEC. Like Nikki I felt UKIP broke this contract I had to represent the SW members. I was elected to represent these members not to uncritically rubber stamp the self serving decisions of Farage and his Cabal. Nikki's position is exactly the same. Why should she be tarred with being in a group of Neo Nazi racists simply so Farage could do a bit more grandstanding for his own selfish ends.

Nikki's own website, click here, summarises the powerful arguments against UKIP being in the EFD. I quote some of her points below,

'It is a myth that we benefit financially from EFD membership
It is claimed that Group membership brings with it money for UKIP. This is completely false. First it would be illegal to pass this money to UKIP. It is for the use of EFD and very restrictive rules apply. Secondly the budget follows MEPs whatever group they are in. If one joins the non-aligned, the EU monies allocated are slightly less but at least you can be in charge of all your allocation. In some instances, there would be fewer restrictions. For example, the UKIP logo could be prominently used with the party and MEP's name. In the first six months of this parliament, the West Midlands' region has not received one penny from the EFD, yet both MEPs would have had over £40,000 to use in that period had they been non-aligned.'

Again similar to my, Del and David Abbott's experience on the NEC, when you start asking questions about where the money is going you are immediately attacked by the Cabal as an enemy of Farage.

' Being in EFD gets us more media coverage
Neither the public nor most journalists have ever heard of EFD. Our media coverage results from what UKIP, its MEPs and campaigners do and say. When Nigel appears on TV, it is as UKIP. It should also be noted that Tory MEP, Daniel Hannan received more press attention as a non-aligned member than Nigel Farage did when they both attacked Gordon Brown.'

Farage is seen by the UKIP membership as a 'great' media performer only because he snaffled most of the invites. As Nikki says when he is seen next to a good performer like Hannann or RKS he cannot compete.

Nikki's final point,

' Because the EFD group is a precursor to a full Pan European political party
The current proposal on the table for UKIP MEPs in Brussels is for UKIP to join such a party to conform to the EU plan to entrench the federalist Euro-state:a President, a Foreign Secretary, Flag, Anthem, Police Force, Army, Parliament, MEPs and pan-European political parties. We should do as the electorate told us to do and SAY NO to European Union and to those apparata that help them to remove our sovereignty and our British identity.', is the most important.

Farage's hidden agenda is not to get the UK out of the EU but to lead a Pan European party to oppose the European Commission within the EU, ie Farage has become a reformist not an outer. He has given up on our cause. I fully expect him to stand at the next Europeans for this EU party, not UKIP.

As Nikki's experience shows the UKIP Cabal's ways continues unchanged and until they are removed lock stock and barrel our country will slide further and further into the EU cesspit of rule by political party elites like Farage's Cabal.

Sunday, 24 January 2010

Pearson is right about face veils

Malcolm Pearson is right to call for the banning of the wearing of face veils in public places on security grounds just as helmets and hoodies that hide peoples faces are banned in shopping malls, banks, airports etc. People are identified by their face as Maurice Bowra, the former Master of Wadham, once pointed out to his friends when he wrapped a towel round his face to prevent being identified when spotted sun bathing in the nude by a group of women.

One of the police's well used excuses for inaction against anti-social behaviour like throwing stones through neighbour's windows is that the culprits cannot be identified even with CCTV footage for arrest and prosecution because the perpetrators invariably wear face covering hoodies or as the IRA and UVF did, balaclavas. It is impossible for an eye witness to identify any one when their face is covered and only their eyes are visible as that other well known Oxford character DCI Morse found out when looking for a missing girl. The girl answered the door to Morse at the start of the episode but her face was plastered with heavy ointment leaving only her eyes visible. Morse could not recognise her until he returned at the end of the episode, two hours later, when the girl's face was all visible. Even that well known former left wing agitator and now pillar of the Establishment and cabinet member, Jack Straw was very unhappy about seeing only a pair of eyes at his constituency surgeries.

Quite right banning the burqa is un-British.However that's not really the issue is it? The issue is the un-Britishness of those wearing the burqa even when they were born here. The front page headline in today's Sunday Telegraph reads, "Terrorist alert over female suicide bombers" relating to the raising of the threat to the UK of futher Al Quaeda terrorism to 'severe'. Undoubtedly these females will be clean skins and not wearing a face veil when trying board an aircraft but how will we have decent intelligence on them if they previously had their faces hidden?

I do not care a jot about Muslim anger or self perceived stigmatisation if it saves the life of one ordinary law abiding traveller. There has been too much pandering to self anointed UK Muslim 'community' leaders. Only democratically elected representatives can speak for citizens of the UK. That is the British way!

As for stigmatisation, Al Quaeda is Muslim, the IRA Catholic, the UVF Protestant and the Irgun Jews. The latter's bombing of the King David Hotel in Jerusalem on 22 July 1946 resulted in 91 fatalities something the Israelis want us to forget. Its not stigmatisation but cold common sense. You have to look and identify Al Quaeda terrorists in their self imposed Muslim ghettoes and assosciations. That facial identification of all suspects and that cannot be done without banning veils as happens in Turkey and other Islamic countries and will soon happen in France. We have to start profiling travellers and concentrating our security efforts on these suspects or there will be more slaughter in our skies, more grieving families and more jubilant Muslim fanatics.

Sunday, 17 January 2010

Back from Zermatt to the same old UKIP & the dog that does not bark

I returned yestreen from a weeks ski-ing at Zermatt with its spectacular views of the Matterhorn but it was as if I had never been away. Nikki has left Farage's sordid EDP group and is immediately smeared by Farage as sitting with the BNP's Nick Griffin, the usual knee jerk response from the Fuerher. Anyone who disagrees with Farage is so smeared with the BNP label plus a bit or their irrelevant personal history, in this case Nikki's bankruptcy, thrown in for an extra bit of character assassination. All done on national TV with Nikki not there to defend herself!

I then switched on the Politics show today to see the great media star making very heavy weather of defending UKIP's latest policy viz ban the face covering by Islamic women in public places in a debate with the young female Islamic leader of the Respect party. The policy is perfectly defensible on security and legal identification grounds but the great media star got himself ambushed. Farage never learns.

But where was our great new leader Lord P? Could he have been snow bound on Rannoch Moor? He is usually very strong on such Islamic issues so why was he not there defending UKIP's new Islamic policy initiative?

Come to think of it what part did Lord P play in the Nuttall announced UKIP NEC decision to deselect Nikki as a UKIP candidate in future elections. When and where was this NEC meeting held. Was Lord P there? Was Lord P even consulted?

Cabal antics are all very well in the Farage worshipping NEC but when they start to leak out into a General Election sensitized media they will be portrayed for what they are, sordid, self serving, idiotic actions of a talentless group of sycophants who have no integrity or moral credibility whatsoever.

Tuesday, 5 January 2010

Gilt Pigeons coming home to roost & the Greeks have to swallow an EU Trojan horse.

In March 2009 I wrote about the coming crisis in selling UK government debt and the associated fall in Sterling.The bond market mill grinds slowly but it grinds exceeding fine. Today's DT Business runs with the front page headline, "Sell gilts,says biggest global bond house" The bond house is the US based Pimco and the head of its European Investment team is one Andrew Balls, brother of UK cabinet minister Ed Brown Balls. Obviously there may be some sibling rivalry involved.

Those areas of the bond market that have had greatest central bank support will be most vulnerable when QE ends opines one Mike Amey a London portfolio manager. In the UK this means Gilts and this means gilt prices will fall rapidly, gilt yields inversely correlated with price will rise, swap rates hedged into gilts will also rise and Joe Public's mortgage fixes set off swap rates will also rise quickly. The residential housing market will go South in a big way and their will be the usual weeping, wailing and gnashing of teeth.

Cheer up! I personally guarantee none of this will happen until after the May General Election. The BoE will do the government's bidding and keep QE in place until told to withdraw it by a new administration. Central bankers love their gongs, knighthoods and peerages, all in the gift of the prime minster and awarded for doing what you are told but withheld if you do the right thing for the country. Its a pity you cannot give peerages to the bond market! It has the nasty habit of not doing what politicians say especially if they have a bald eagle motif.

Our EU partners, the Greeks, of whom I have often written seem to have got themselves into an even worse mess than Darling Brown Balls. " Greece faces EU supervision as deficit soars" is today's other significant DT headline. The DT reveals, "Officials from the European Commission and the European Central Bank are on standby for a 'monitoring visit' to Athens once they receive word from the Greek authorities outlining how they intend to get a grip on public debt." Well you can't say it plainer than that. If the Greeks want bailed out by the EU they have to accept EU rule, otherwise no dosh. Last time the Greeks foisted the wooden horse on the Trojans but this time its the EU foisting its wooden rule on the Greeks.

Can the UK be far behind? There is little difference between the parlous state of our public finances and that of the Greeks. Rest assured Darling Brown Balls will not let this happen till after the election but also be assured the ensuing post election LibLabCon government will drag in the EU wooden horse just like the Greeks!

Sunday, 3 January 2010

Can Farage do better at Buckingham than Esther Ratzen does at Luton?

I have always thought UKIP's good performance in the 2004 Europeans came on the back of Kilroy Silk's huge media presence and popularity which moved UKIP up from 3 seats to 12 seats. Farage of course claimed much of the credit for this and all of the credit for the 2009 UKIP European performance. The real credit for UKIP's good 2009 performance of course belongs to the hundred plus LibLabCon MPs caught abusing their expenses and subjected to 2 months of relentless media scrutiny immediately pre June 2009 giving UKIP a huge protest vote. For sure it had nothing to do with Nigel Farage.

Now we have UKIP, lead by a political numpty, who puts his foot in it every time he opens his mouth and doing a brilliant job sabotaging the non-existent UKIP General Election campaign for his Tory pals and Farage running his own campaign in Tory Buckingham against Speaker Bercow, forced on the House of Commons by NuLabour. One of the worst exhibitions of political spite and cynicism I can remember. Bercow had a majority of 18000 in 2005 but the bookies have Farage at 4/1 so not out of the race.

Esther Rantzen, with possibly a bigger media presence than RKS, is now standing as an Independent in Luton South and running a very slick and professional campaign in a seat formerly held by Labour's Margaret Moran, one of those caught out in the second homes expenses scandal. Moran is not standing again so Labour will field a 'clean' candidate against Rantzen so unlike Farage she will not have the advantage of being up against a discredited and detested sitting MP. Moran had a 6000 majority in 2005, down from 10000 in the previous two elections.

Both are trying to emulate Martin Bell who in 1997 overturned a 16000 majority against disgraced cash for questions Tory MP Neil Hamilton. Farage's position is closer to that of Bell in Tatton in 97, a Tory seat, large majority and a disgraced MP as his opponent.

Rantzen has a clean opposition candidate in a Labour seat which I would rate a harder task than Farage's. So if she can pull it off it will show the power of having a media persona and confirm my view that 2004 was a Kilroy triumph. A Farage win would be a superb achievement but realistically I expect Rantzen to do better than Farage and the Farage media expertise myth to be shown up by a real professional. The debt UKIP owes RKS will then be clear for all to see and the possibility opens up of more genuinely independent MPs which would be a huge tonic for our devalued political system.