Monday, 26 September 2011

Stuff the Greeks, save the French banks and Sarkozy

The latest rescue package figure plucked out of nowhere is €3 trillion that is €3000000000. No mention of who is going to pay this vast sum. Well Madame Lagarde, the next president of France after Sarky, will ensure that the UK gets stuck for its share. This is not about saving the poor Greeks. Its about ensuring those French Banks who lent them the money get repaid and don't have to go to the French state for the money. Its all going to come from the ECB printing press and Robert Mugabe will be advising how to do it.

The other part of this wonder package is to allow the Greeks to selectively default about 50% of their bonds. Who chooses who gets paid and who does not? Madame Lagarde again and its a rock solid certainty that top of the list will be the French banks! Its certain to generate legal action from those not repaid but of course the European Court will be fixed. I do not think these bonds were written under English common law so no chance of a fair and decent judgement.

Do you remember how 3 years ago, in the middle of our bank crisis,  the EU and their LibDem fellow travellers were smugly saying how it was all the fault of the Anglo Saxon banking system and we should copy their system with Spain being held up as an example to follow. Where is Spain now? Fourth in the queue with a very large begging bowl.

I wrote previously how the Anglo Saxon banks coped with the Russian debt default in 1998. Guess who is now  pressuring  the EU for some semblance of action? That's right these big bad Anglo Saxons again.

Is a pity wee George was so quick to unilaterally accept John Vickers gold plated bank reserve requirements. HSBC and Standard Charterered will almost certainly shift out of the City if these recommendations are implemented with a huge loss of jobs and business to the UK. With leaders like ours who needs enemies?

But Greece is still to stay in the Euro and presumably sink further into the mire until eventually either the Communists or the Military take it over. The only solution is for Germany and its satellites to leave the Euro and form a Deutsch Mark zone hopefully without the French who could then get on with running the and paying for the Club Med Euro which would fall dramatically on the FX market and restore economic activity in the Club Med including France. They would still use the Euro and would eventually be able to repay their debts in this devalued currency according to the tried and tested IMF recipe.

As for Germany, Europe's chief miser, they would have to increase their public spending and boost demand in the which is exactly what world trade needs! A win- win situation!

Friday, 23 September 2011

UKIP needs to follow the proven strategy to get MPs

When I was attacked  by Duffy on the NEC with allegations I had a hidden agenda. I replied to her insolence that I had only ever had one agenda, to get the UK out of the EU in my lifetime. The silence was deafening and I well remember the look of horror on Farage's face. I waited for someone to say that's the agenda of us all but it never came. Farage's agenda is to stay on the EU gravy train as long as possible and maximise the EU loot he can trouser.

If UKIP wants the UK out of the EU that can only happen in one place and in one way, the House of Commons must repeal the 1972 European Communities Act. Such a Repeal Bill has already been tabled by Philip Hollobone, Tory MP for Kettering and is due for its second reading on 20th Jan 2012. What can UKIP do to assist the passage of this bill which would deliver their core aim. Precisely nothing because they have no MPs! Many will speak in support of Mr Hollobone's bill but not UKIP MPs.  The awful truth the loyal UKIP membership has to face up to is that their chosen leader Nigel Farage does not wish the UK to leave the EU. He wants to continue taking the EU's Euros for himself and to pay the Cabal to say nothing of the huge EU pension that will eventually come his way. He wants to continue to bask in the cheap publicity of slagging off Barroso or Rumpy or Frumpy and appearing on QT and AQ  . Sorry poor UKIP members but you have been well and truly had!

I sometimes read the comments in the UKIP section of democracy forum with some amusement. Click on link to read the whole thread. The orginator complains,

"The only time we seem to hear anything from UKIP is just before the EU elections when we see Mr Farage giving one of his speeches and then once elected its all quiet until next EU elections.
Which way did UKIP MEPs vote on expenses for example?"

Its a very good question and the answer is that's where the money is for Nigel and his chums!

Another comment by a different person on the same thread,

"Yeah there doesn't seem to much in the way of activity. It's like a part-time things. The website is updated about once a week and the policy page is still a mess imo."

At the NEC I caused uproar by asking why we were sending MEPs to Brussels? What were they achieving there? Would they not better further our leave the EU cause by staying in the UK and work there to get District and County Councillors elected in target areas to build up some UK support bases that would give us a chance at winning UK parliamentary elections? The Greens did this recently in Brighton and the LibDems have followed this strategy to get them for 4 or 5 MPs in the 80s to the 50+ they have now and oh yes they  now govern the UK with their Tory fellow travellers.

That is the proven strategy that UKIP should have been following since its inception.but its hard work, there is no EU sized  money in it and no national publicity so it does not appeal to Mr Farage and his chums. Parliamentary constituencies are built up of County and District Council wards. Win enough wards, establish your credibility in running District or County councils and you eventually get MPs elected. . Prat around on one off publicity stunts like Farage gets you nowhere except into plane crashes!

I stood for the UKIP SW MEP list mainly to reduce the Fargistas on the SW slate by one. My election address is still on by website  At the hustings I stated that if eventually elected I would give my entire MEP salary to UKIP, go to Brussels as little as possible, travel the country and work my socks off in the UK with UKIP's great activists and lobby every media editor incessantly to get as much publicity in the UK for our cause. I also stated I would donate my entire MEP after tax salary to UKIP. This upset Gawain Towler a long time  associate of Farage. He thought this was an underhand tactic on my part! Well it would have given UKIP a certain £250000! I see nothing underhand in that. What has William Legge given to UKIP during his UKIP MEP tenure? Or an easier question how much will Bannerman give to UKIP? Both Legge and Bannerman were strong Farage supporters. How much has Farage himself given to UKIP? Not a lot in all three cases I opine. Yet these are the same people who ask hard up OAPs to cough up their money for UKIP! How sickening.

Motivated unpaid activists working to the strategy above our cause can succeed. Career paid  politicians particularly old Tories like Neil Hamilton with a lot of baggage or juveniles driven by self interest and desire for a 'political career' will do nothing to get us out of the EU. Ours is a cause not a career path for those who lack the talent for success in proper jobs.

Right now the EU is weaker than it ever has been since its inception. There is a head of steam building up in Westminster for at least a partial reduction in EU governance of our country.  The numbers of Tories supporting this will worry Cameron. Think how much more worried he would be if there were UKIP MP's in the Commons articulating our cause! Look at the influence and control 50 LibDems have over 300 frustrated Tories. Where are UKIP's leaders? In the bars and restaurants of Brussels. There won't be any crucial parliamentary votes there Nigel!

Saturday, 17 September 2011

Greeks, your Euro end is nigh!

I opined a few weeks ago that I expected the crunch to come for  the Euro around mid September. Well the ides of September has come and the US Treasury Sec Geithner rode into town and told the Europeans to stop arguing and do something at an internal Eurozone meeting. That is bad enough but when you put it together with the concerted action by the five main central banks to supply dollar liquidity on demand then you know things are pretty bad. The problem with this latter operation is to get sufficient eligible collateral into the settlement system for the central banks to lend dollars that the market won't supply because it fears banks going bust and their money disappearing.

There is of course no high quality or even low quality bond collateral left. All there is is the dross of PIGS' paper which the ECB in desperation have been buying outright. They did this with Greece but lost their nerve when the market continued to fall. Greek 10 year bond rates are now at 23.6%! The ECB have also been buying huge quantities of Italian and Spanish bonds but I suspect they are losing their nerve there also. Italians 10 years are at 5.65% and Spanish at 5.34% despite the ECB spening over 100 bn€ buying them!

Before wee George and Dave congratulate themselves UK gilts are starting to weaken as the market realises the dire straits the UK economy is in. Reuters reports it thus,

"Lagarde recently warned that the egos of world leaders are putting the global economy at risk. This is a nice way of saying that none of the leaders of the G-20, elected or not, are in the mood to take the risk themselves of publicly confessing to the true scale of the problem of excess debt and shrinking demand facing each nation. But as Geithner goes to the EU to preach tough love to his European counterparts, he leaves a lot of unfinished business at home."

All we are getting is hot air. The longer it goes on the worse things will be. Greece should have ben allowed to default months ago. Now the cancer is spreading throughout the Eurozone. The German ECB chief economist Juergen Stark jumped ship last week following German ECB board memeber Axel Webber. As always its the poor that will pay

Tuesday, 13 September 2011

Vickers & more Lib Dem duplicity

I was acquainted with John Vickers at the Bank of England where he had become chief economist in succession to the now disastrous Governor Mervyn King. (Ask Alastair Darling!)  Like King, Vickers is a very clever man but his expertise is in competetion economics not banking. Like King he is not ,and never will be a banker and his report if implemented will be a disaster for UK bank customers, personal and commercial as well as deeply and permanently damaging the City of London.

Vickers report simply gold plates what is already happening through the BIS. As with UK civil servants gold plating EU regulations Vickers ensures the UK will end up worse of than its banking the US, EU and Far East with a resulting huge loss of jobs in the City of London. Economists should not be involved in banking decisions. That was the unanimous view in the City by those who have to do the business. City economists are for PR like boy Dave.

The problem with economists is they have never had to run any operation at a profit. I remember talking to a multi-national city bank advised by a big name economist. I asked what input this economist had into their decisions. There were derisive hoots of laughter. None was the reply. When we have to take serious decisions we kick him out. Osborne should kick Vickers report into the long grass asap and await the BIS internationally agreed rules which the US investment bankers will have a huge and sensible part in formulating

There is nothing more sick making than watching the three main UK political parties uniting to give their whipping boy a good kicking. This is of course to divert public attenetion from their own incompetence and corruption. Its a bit like the old Bernard Manning joke about we should all love each other and get together to give a certain ethnic group a good kicking.

Loudest in demanding prompt action on Vickers are of course the LibDems. Strange they are so silent on demanding prompt action on the recommendations of the Boundary Review Commission something which is of course an integral  part of their coaliion agreement with boy Dave. Lets defer this reorganisation until after the next election say the Lib Dems feeling for their seats. Sickening from a yellow party.

Its the student fee betrayal all over again with deja vu! It reminds me of one of my Dad's old jokes about Communism. A left wing mining trade union official was being interviwed on sharing wealth. It went a bit like this.

Q: So if you had two houses you would give one to me if I had none.?

A Yes

Q So if you had two cars and I had none you would give one to me?

A Of course

Q So if you had two dogs and I had none you would give me one?

A. Well lets not be too hasty. I have two dogs!

That is exactly the Lib Dem position, generous with other peoples assets but stingy with their own. They are neither Liberal or Democratic and indeed have said  they will use their unelected members of the House of Lords to block this clearly democratic proposal. They are all hypocrites of the worst sort.

The Tories shelter behind them whenever any anti- EU proposal comes up. We can't support it because of our yelow coaltion partners say the yellow Tories of whom there are many.

I will opine on the Eurozone problems soon. Its a slow motion car crash that gets worse with each passing day.

Sunday, 11 September 2011

UKIP Conference assessed

I did not go to this event. Like Mr Allen, a moderator on Buthcher's forum not unfriendly to UKIP  I found the list of speakers pretty dreadful for a nationalist party. I did not listen to Mr Farage's speech as they are always the same.

How many attended? The BBC report click on link to read put the number at 400 to 500, roughly half that claimed by the increasingly unbelievable Mr Crowther.

The BBC quoted UKIP's founder Alan Sked, who wrote to the The Times to say: "UKIP has been fooling its voters and members for far too long. Its third-rate leaders, propagandists and MEPs all need to be sacked and the party re-established.". The deputy political editor of the Independent on the Friday Daily Politics show commented in similar vein on the low quality of UKIP's leadership citing Malcolm Pearson who went on the UKIP conference Daily Politics show last year admitting he did not know what was in the party manifesto! Unbelievable in any other political party other than UKIP.

The most depressing thing from my viewpoint was the inclusion of Neil Hamilton the former MP disgraced over his alleged involvement in the cash for questions scandal as a platform speaker and NEC candidate. It is reported he now describes himself as whiter than white. Some mistake surely. It was the Independent man in the White suit who defeated Hamilton in the 97 General Election overturning one of the biggest Tory majorities in the country.

It merely adds to UKIP's list of Tory rejects, Gill, Bannerman and now Hamilton. The serious point is that UKIP can never be more than a Tory pressure group with such ex-Tories involved.

Alan Sked made this point many years ago on leaving Farage's EUKIP a party Sked detested. As I opined recently UKIP has to be a clean centre ground party to make real progress and win MPs. Marta Andreasen had her stall in the foyer and has already called for Nigel Farage to resign over the local election fiasco.

As the BBC journo described UKIP,, " the bickering group that numbers council election gains in single figures, despite a knack for attracting television personalities of a certain age?" To which I would add defunct Tories and wannabe juveniles both of little talent

Wednesday, 7 September 2011

Farage's Pan European Panzers invade Eastbourne

Captain Mannering and CS Foyle where are you now? Your country needs you to defend it on your home patch.  Dover for the continent, Eastbourne for the incontinent as Geoffrey Collier said to me recently, to which I now add Eastbourne for the deluded EU reformists and placemen.

One look at the list of invited EU reformist speakers and Farage Youth makes clear Nigel Farage's intends to press on at all costs with his Pan European UKIP party despite the vote against it at conference last year and its recent two to one a party wide referendum. Money always trumps principle for Mr Farage. Its a clear EU bribe to sabotage UKIP's core purpose and policy. Does Mr Farage care? Of course not. Its money that counts and can be counted. As St Paul  wrote 'The love of money is the root of all evil'.

Farage appointee and placeman Chairman Crowther says, "I'm particularly pleased that we have guests coming from Finland, France, the Netherlands, the Czech Republic, Croatia and Iceland.". Look at the list of named speakers for conference, exclude Farage and Farage supporting MEPs  Batten, Bloom and Nuttall and   five clear groups emerge as dominant.

First the motley group of 4 mid-European EU reformists to help NF's Pan European party

Second some dodgy ex-media types.

Third the usual quota of ex or failed Tories. Neil Hamilton the disgraced and defeated former Tory stands out

Fourth around six representatives of nutty special interest groups to help the UKIP fruit case and loonie image.

Fifth, and the largest, a group of early twenties students from the Farage youth wing whom  a Google search shows as Farage sycophants clearly seeking to get on the Brussels gravy train.

This list redefines the word stellar as used by Crowther to describe the speakers in the UKIP blurb. Dross might be a better description.

Under represented to the point of invisibility are the ordinary UKIP chairman and members who have got the party its electoral success by their hard work in the last two European elections.

Its the last group that worries me most. A group of young impressionable youth from lesser universities and educational institutions clearly owing allegiance to the leader and seeking preferment in Brussels from the great leader. Now what group in the 1930s does that description fit?

In the true EU tradition which EUKIP has adopted Farage simply intends to ignore the two to one vote of the members against turning UKIP into a Pan European party. He will press on and my guess is force it through the NEC which his placemen dominate as party policy. Even the recently much abused Mr Denny may have to toe the line or suffer yet more abuse. What times we live in

For those disconnected from UKIP I give the complete Farage support cast below

Friday morning, September 9

  • UKIP Councillors & Strategy for 2015
  • Neil Hamilton, Sunday Express columnist
  • Patrick O'Flynn, Daily Express chief political commentator
  • Barry Madlener MEP, Dutch Freedom Party
  • Timo Soini MP, Leader, True Finns Party
  • Nigel Farage MEP
Friday afternoon
  • Nicolas Dupont-Aignan MP, French DLR Party
  • Prof Tim Congdon, Dr Peter Mach and Godfrey Bloom
  • Jon Gaunt, CEO, EU Referendum Campaign
  • Gerard Batten MEP
  • Alex Singleton, former Daily Telegraph leader-writer
  • Paul Doyle on Defence
  • Michael Heaver on Education
  • Robert Elliott on Long Term Care
  • Andrew Charalambous on Housing
  • Eddie Bone, CEP
  • Paul Nuttall and Tim Aker (Policy Review)
Saturday morning, September 10
  • John Tennant, European Parliament
  • Harry Aldridge, YI Chairman
  • Tom Booker, Steve Fowler and Sean Howlett (YI)
  • James Moyies on Branch Revival
  • David Coburn and London 2012 Team
  • Steven Woolfe, City of London Campaign
  • Bill Etheridge, Campaign Against Political Correctness
  • Inez Ward, Justice for Licensees Campaign
  • Joe Rukin, Anti-HS2 Campaign
  • Ben Pile, Fighting the Turbines Campaign

Sunday, 4 September 2011

UKIP should follow Scottish Tories and disband

Today's Sunday Telegraph story on the above quoting the Scottish Tories likely new leader, Murdo Fraser was the best example of political leadership I can remember. Mr Fraser has looked at the Tory performance in Scotland and come to the rational conclusion supported by the evidence that North of the border the Tories are finished and has the courage to act on his beliefs. I quote from the ST below.

Murdo Fraser, who is favourite to become leader of the Scottish Conservative and Unionist Party, will announce that he plans to wind up the party if he wins a ballot of members next month.
He would follow disbanding the party by launching a new Right-of-centre party that would contest all Scottish elections — council, Scottish Parliament and Westminster.
Mr Fraser, a member of the Scottish Parliament, believes the Conservatives have become a “toxic brand” in Scotland since losing all 11 of their Commons seats in the 1997 Labour landslide.

UKIP needs to do the same and recognise its total electoral failure in the only elections that can lead to the UK leaving the EU, the Westminster elections! UKIP is currently the problem in making progress on this core issue and is not and never can be even part of the solution.

Its name in the blogosphere  of EUKIP is well merited. Its leadership has been bribed by EU money and flattery into Brussels based EU supporters and much, much worse blocking the development of a real leave the EU party in the UK. It is irretrievably dominated by the same old toxic Tories, Pearson, Gill, Farage etc that the Scots Tory leader elect recognises as an insurmountable barrier to winning MPs in Scotland. And look at UKIP's latest recruit and star conference speaker, Neil Hamilton! A man who pre-dates the recent expenses with cash for questions, hospitality freebies etc  long before duck houses became fashionable and Tory sleaze helped win the election for Blair.

Tim Congdon, one of the leaders in the No vote campaign against Farage's pan Europe party is also down to speak at the UKIP conference sharing a platform with Bloom who is alleged already to have signed up to a Pan Europe party and a Czech EU reformist called Mach whom I have never heard of. Tim's political compass needs looking at. If he wants out of the EU he should keep well away from these EU, mid European apologists.

UKIP can rid itself of these toxic, unreconstructed old Tories  only by disbanding and immediately reforming as broad based centrist anti EU party ie a party that could win Westminster seats like the Greens. This is the best and only contribution EUKIP can make to getting us out of the EU. The people are there to do it. Nikki Sinclaire, Mike Natrass, Trevor Colman and John Bufton. UKIP's NEC is simply a Farage rubber stamp group of mushrooms. Kept in the dark and fed plenty of shit. Batten is politically spineless against Farage and Andreasen is the Monet dream made flesh.

It is down to those 4 MEPs to show some leadership. What have they to lose? Farage will never allow them to go on any UKIP MEP slate again. That is of course the real reason Bannerman jumped ship to the Tories. It had nothing to do with his profound admiration of  EU phile boy Dave. As soon as he stood against Farage for the leadership he was toast. He knew that as does anyone who knows Farage. Look at what has happened to the others who have stood against Farage in leadership contests.

Its a pity Tim Congdon lacks a political sense. As one ministers PPS once said to me that its like a sixth sense and if you don't have it you will never succeed in politics. Del Young has it big time. That is why he had to be marginalised and got rid off. Tim would be better off taking Del's advice than Batten's or Steve Allison. Both think they will be allowed onto the UKIP MEP slate in 2014. Knowing Farage, if he is still leader, I would not bet on either Batten or Allison appearing higher than 10, if at all, on any regional MEP slate. 

Friday, 2 September 2011

What is going on with Eurobond rates

A BBC type was warbling on this morning about how successful the EU had been in reducing PIGS' bond rates. I update my table of 10 year bond rates below:

              11th July             15th July             18th July               16th August     2nd Sept

Greece  17.19% (14.52)  17.71% (15.02) 18.23% (15.57)   15.51 (13.18) 18.28(16.18)

Ireland   13.62% (10.96)  14.27% (11.58) 14.45% (11.79)   10.18 (7.85)     8.73(6.63)

Portugal13.28% (10.61)  12.93% (10.24) 12.84% (10.18)  10.90 (8.57)    10.50(8.40)

Spain        6.08% (3.41)     6.07% (3.38)      6.32% (3.67)      5.02 (2.69)      5.10(3.00)

Italy          5.72% (3.05)      5.77% (3.09)    5.99% (3.34)       5.04 (2.70)      5.20(3.10)

Well other than Greece the BBC type has a prima facie case but how was this achieved and at what cost? If you note from the above table Italy is now seen as riskier than Spain whereas two months ago it was the opposite. I suspect the reason is that there is a much bigger  volume of Italian bonds than Spanish in the market. The ECB under political pressure has possibly been buying Italian and Spanish bonds in equal amounts so the relative effect on Spanish bonds has been greater.

Clearly the market likes what Ireland is doing and to a lesser extent Portugal. Both these countries have implemented austerity programmes credible to the markets. But the Italian and Spanish situation is dependent on the ECB continuing to buy up their paper already in the market. How much has the ECB spent doing this is a closely guarded secret but I guess its something well North of 100bn€, something that goes down badly in Germany.

The Italian 10 year bond auction on Tuesday this week showed how little appetite there is for further Italian paper. The Italians sold 7.74€bn at a rate of 5.22%. The ECB had to go into to the market after the auction to stabilise the rate and the general feeling is the ECB will now concentrate on buying Italian bonds of which there is a huge amount out there.

The crunch however will come in Germany. Merkel's government could easily fall and if so all bets are off.