As always I turned to the people who are usually right, the bookies. Only one, Ladbrokes are making a book on UKIP and neither Ladbrokes or any other firm are making a book on LIbLabCon seat total. It's hardly an active market compared to Eastleigh.
Ladbroke's UKIP odds were 11/4 less than 50 seats, 11/4 50 to 100, 11/4 over 100. These are niggardly odds and imply a profit margin of 20% to Ladbrokes. On the flat horse races bookies margins are typically 8% to !0%. Gudo Fawkes today writes he expects UKIP to win 50 seats and the Plymouth politics dept goes for 40. Either of these outcomes are good results for UKIP particulary if they win 4 or so seats on a split council.
On the share of the vote the BBC quote Labour 37.5%, Tory 28.5% , LibDem 15.5%. UKIP is not quoted by the Beeb an indication of their support for the status quo, however adding up the three percentages above, aubtracting from 100 gives 18.5% for UKIP and others. That looks to me like UKIP are at LibDem share of 15.5%. Because of their excellent organisation particularly of postal votes and geographic concentration in areas like the West Country I expect the LibDems will do much better than UKIP in terms of seats.
That is the penalty UKIP pay for Farage's long term neglect of simple party electoral matters. I saw Crowther yesterday on the Daily Politics where he was clearly operating in damage limitation mode with no positive message. It continued this evening where the Tories have targetted and smeared one of UKIP's juvenile candidates in Castle Cary. UKIP wheeled out N Hamilton to defend the poor lad. What a message to send to the electorate who have not forgotten Hamilton's past and defeat by the man in the white suit.
Putting it all together I am hopeful UKIP will win around 40 seats which in my opinion will be a good result given the shambolic campaign they have run.