Sunday, 2 June 2013

There won't be a leader's debate in 2015. Tough NF.

The discussion at the end of today's Andrew Neil show revealed one interesting comment from the Times' Isobel Oakeshott. Agreeing Cameron lost big time in 2010, probably the election went right then with the  I agree with Nick repeated ad naseam by GB. Ms Oakeshott revealed the Tories knew they would lose the debate after their role playing rehearsal in which Hunt playing Cleggy trounced Cam. (Which Tory played GB?). Now Labour are much sharper at this sort of thing after 16 years of Blair rule so I am sure they would have also had their role playing rehearsal with the same result. Its a standard sceneario forecasting technique I used to teach my students in 1980s

Brown knew he was going to lose in 2010 so he was engaged in a lets stop the Tories winning strategy. That involved bigging up Nick in the debate and it worked! The Tories did not win an election they should have walked. Maybe GB remembered Kinnockio in 1992, defeated by the grey man. GB also left a superbly poisoned chalice to the Tories in terms of public sector debt and deficit to ensure Labour would get back in 2015.

GB was a poor PM but a very smart political operator and his smartest move was to have the leader's debate at all! Its sole purpose was to shaft the Tories and it has worked better than Gordon could have dreamed of. Cameron could not refuse and got trounced. In 2015 Cameron will avoid such a debate like the plague. He would like one with just Millipede but he can't have it so it will be a conventional UK General Election campaign with no leaders debate. Tough titties Farage!

I expect Gord's strategy to succeed and confidently expect Red Ed will be our PM in 2015 so no referendum either. Oh dear! Still Farage and chums will pick up their £1 million each for winning the 2014 Europeans and thats what its all about for EUKIP. Trouser the dosh and doubles all round.


ALAN WOOD said...

A week is a long time in politics.

What odds that one, or all three parties, change their leader by 2015 ?

Tories because they know they'll lose, Labour because they know they cannot win outright and Lib-Dems because their vote share is sliding.

Paul Nuttall did a workmanlike piece in Liverpool last night.
Will the inner cities back UKIP and cause the defeat of Labour ?

With the economy in a mess and the public getting fed up with politicians here and in Brussels there is time for a mini-revolution in favour of UKIP.

Farage just needs to touch the rights chords in his speeches.

Eric Edmond said...

Agreed Alan. The working class might well go for UKIP after all what have they to lose?

They wont vote for the Hamiltons.

woof woof