Friday, 6 June 2014

Newark marks the turn of the UKIP tide

Newark result:

Robert Jenrick (C) 17,431 (45.03%, -8.82%)
Roger Helmer (Ukip) 10,028 (25.91%, +22.09%)
Michael Payne (Lab) 6,842 (17.68%, -4.65%)
Paul Baggaley (Ind) 1,891 (4.89%)
David Kirwan (Green) 1,057 (2.73%)
David Watts (LD) 1,004 (2.59%, -17.41%)
Nick The Flying Brick (Loony) 168 (0.43%)
Andy Hayes (Ind) 117 (0.30%)
David Bishop (BP Elvis) 87 (0.22%)
Dick Rodgers (Stop Banks) 64 (0.17%)
Lee Woods (Pat Soc) 18 (0.05%)
C maj 7,403 (19.13%)
15.46% swing C to UKIP
Electorate 73,486; Turnout 38,707 (52.67%, -18.69%)

A good result for UKIP? Not in my opinion. Mrs James got 28% at Eastleigh. She was on the Andrew Neil results show and was excellent until Farge butted in and screwed things up by his claims Newark would be UKIP's best ever by-election result over 30%. Idiot! Helmer got 26%. UKIP could have had a much better, Diane James type, candidate. See my comments of a month ago:

Second they could got all their MEPs to pitch as the Tories did with their payroll'

Third Farage could have been there all week rather than feathering his own nest in Brussels and Malta

These were simple things that would have given UKIP a better chance of winnning but as always with Farage follow the money.

The Tories knew how crucial this by-election was and threw everything at it. I wrote about this on 3rd of June as below

Ashcroft Newark Poll Has Tories 15 Points Clear

Tories 42
Labour 20
Lib Dems 6

Lord Ashcroft reports:
“A by-election two weeks after the European election means that Newark’s electors have enjoyed the prolonged attention of the parties, a privilege for which they must surely be grateful. The evidence from my poll is that the Tories have had the better of an intense ground war and have by no means taken the seat for granted. More than nine out of ten voters say they have heard from the Conservatives locally, including 81 per cent who have had literature through the door; nearly half have received personally addressed mail. Eight in ten say they have heard from UKIP; the party is reported to be slightly more active than Labour in all elements of the local campaign.
The poll was conducted in the week before polling day, and just under a fifth of voters say they may yet change their mind. Despite this, it looks clear that the next MP for Newark will be Robert Jenrick.”

So small earthquake in Newark, no Tories casualties.

Scarcely surprising after the selection of old Tory Helmer as candidate with all his political baggage. Why vote for an old Tory when you can have a young one?

UKIP's only chance was a charismatic clean skin like Diane James. Little effort seems to have been made to find such a person. A huge chance has been missed. Better one MP from this high visibility election than the dozen dodgy MEPs UKIP has got. Farage chose the latter for EU Euros. This shows he has no wish to get us out of the EU. Don't listen to what he says but look at what he does and always, always follow the money

Note how accurate the Ashcroft poll was.

I quoted Julius Caesar  on 31st June re UKIP's non-effort at Newark.

There is a tide in the affairs of men.
Which, taken at the flood, leads on to fortune;
Omitted, all the voyage of their life
Is bound in shallows and in miseries.
On such a full sea are we now afloat,
And we must take the current when it serves,
Or lose our ventures.

I am afraid UKIP missed the tide. It will not come again in our life time. The cabal have their 30 pieces of silver. The UKIP foot soldiers zilch. 

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