At times like these I turn to bookies odds. Opinion are just that and opinions fluctuate. Bookie's odds are based on hard cash and are therefore much more reliable. You can see these by clicking on
There you will see UKIP at around 4/1 on ie they have an 80% chance of winning. Also interesting is the popular bets being placed UKIP at 7/2 on with the Tories at 10/3 against.
There are factors which might change things. The Tories seem certain to choose a local woman to cash on the female anti-Farage vote and the Tories are going to put in a lot of people and money as the campaign develops, non-stop cabinet ministers so to speak.
I am sure the bookies will have factored this in but it will be well worthwhile keeping an eye on how the odds change in the run up to polling day.
PS Interesting to read UKIP's council loss in Thurock and early loss by 600 in Heywood & Middleton ascribed to poor organisation on the ground. UKIP suffers from too many chiefs like William Legge and not enough Indians. All Legge and his ilk want to do is make platform speeches. He is an Old Etonian after all! He should take a leaf out of Rees Mogg's book, another OE but he had the good sense to take his old nanny out canvassing with him to talk to the oiks on his behalf.