Friday, 17 October 2014

UKIP's chances in Rochester & Strood

At times like these I turn to bookies odds. Opinion are just that and opinions fluctuate. Bookie's odds are based on hard cash and are therefore much more reliable. You can see these by clicking on

There you will see UKIP at around 4/1 on ie they have an 80% chance of winning. Also interesting is the popular bets being placed UKIP at 7/2 on with the Tories at 10/3 against.

There are factors which might change things. The Tories seem certain to choose a local woman to cash on the female anti-Farage vote and the Tories are going to put in a lot of people and money as the campaign develops, non-stop cabinet ministers so to speak.

I am sure the bookies will have factored this in but it will be well worthwhile keeping an eye on how the odds change in the run up to polling day.

PS Interesting to read UKIP's council loss in Thurock and early loss by 600 in Heywood & Middleton ascribed to poor organisation on the ground. UKIP suffers from too many chiefs like William Legge and not enough Indians. All Legge and his ilk want to do is make platform speeches. He is an Old Etonian after all! He should take a leaf out of Rees Mogg's book, another OE but he had the good sense to take his old nanny out canvassing with him to talk to the oiks on his behalf.


Edward Spalton said...

Vote Dave, get Ed.

This would seem to have been true in Heywood.
The Conservatives split the UKIP vote and ensured that Labour won.
Perhaps that was the intention.
I suggested to a Conservative a while back that they ought to do a deal,with UKIP in selected Labour areas in exchange for UKIP laying off some of their more trustworthy 'sceptics.
It was treated with scorn but I bet they are thinking about it now.

A 'sceptic friend has pointed out that Conservatives intend an Open Primary to select their candidate in Rochester and Strood. This will ensure that Labour and other non Con voters can pick the most hopeless candidate.

Eric Edmond said...

I spoke to a retired former Tory agent yesterday who said Cameron would be forced into some sort of electoral pact with Farage. I replied I hope Dave has a long spoon.

Mike Bridgeman said...

NF would be mad to do any sort of deal with Cameron.
It would be Neville Chamberlain all over again.
There is no need for Ukip to do anything. If they carry on as they are they could well have the balance of power.
As an aside, how many of the three other leaders (DC, EM and NC) will still be in their current jobs if there is a debate leading up the general election?

Niall Warry said...

Don't you ever tire of banging your Old Etonian versus oiks drum?!

I believe it's the quality of the individual that matters not the school they went to.

Perhaps you would prefer all public school boys and girls were barred from office?

Eric Edmond said...

Major, How many Old Etonians are there in Dave's cabinet? What percentage of the UK population went to Eton?

Niall Warry said...

Far too many and they are mostly ALL complete wankers BUT they are useless because of who they are not where they went to school.

Got it now?!!

Eric Edmond said...

But they are blocking other better people Major