In elections where Nigel Farage's name appears on the ballot paper as a candidate he has been a very expensive failure spending huge amounts of money on his personal campaign to finish most recently a poor third behind an Independent and Bercow in Bucks on 17th May 2010 saying he had underestimated Bercow's popularity. More accurate would be to say he had vastly underestimated his own popularity. Like the fading Hollwood star he had believed his own publicity too much a belief fanned by his many sycophants.
Wikepedia reports his lack of success in first past the post UK elections thus
Farage had unsuccessfully contested British parliamentary elections for UKIP five times, both before and after his election as an MEP in 1999. Under the 2002 European Union decision to forbid MEPs from holding a dual mandate, if he were to be elected to the House of Commons, he would have to resign his seat as MEP.
When he contested the Bromley & Chislehurst constituency in a May 2006 by-election, following the death of Eurosceptic Conservative MP Eric Forth, Farage came third, winning 8% of the vote, beating the Labour Party candidate. This was the second-best by-election result recorded by UKIP out of 25 results, and the first time since the Liverpool Walton by-election in 1991 that a party in government had been pushed into fourth place in a parliamentary by-election on mainland Britain."
He has been a 5 time loser and I opine Thanet will be number 6. He declined to stand in the Eastleigh by-election of 2013 following the conviction of the sitting Lib Dem Huhne. His pleaded overwork. The local party selected Diane James as candidate whose campaign was nothing like as well funded as Farage's failures but she came within 4% of winning the seat. Better organisation of the postal vote would have won the seat for her and UKIP. UKIP under Farage has been poorly managed. Nigel does not do detail. He is a poor electoral organiser and worse so are his placemen who must be careful not to outshine the cult leader under pain of sacking.
There have been people in UKIP who have in the hard years won fptp elections, Alan Wood in the South West for one and more recently Chris Pain in the East Midlands. Where are these former able activists and others like Del Young & Robin Page now. Expelled from the party on trumped up charges and placed like me on the UKIP proscribed list by Comrade Nuttall and his side kick Crowther. Alan Wood and I in 2008 supported by Trevor Colman organised a nationwide poll against the Lisbon Treaty. Farage could not be bothered and his henchman Clarke UKIP MEP when I challeged him said he was to busy with his EU committee work, ie supporting the EU, to do as all our branch members had done and submit evidence to the Lords select committee scrutinisng the Treaty.
I and the others I mention want to work to get us out of the EU but as we are now proscibed by UKIP where do we go? I have no choice but to support an anti EU party like Alan Sked's New Deal or Al Murray's Free UK party. I am not alone . Farage's vindictive behaviour has created many enemies for UKIP who will come back to haunt Farage.
The bottom line is that in a fptp election Farage is a UKIP liability.Women voters don't like him especially wearing his Arthur Daley velvet collared spiv overcoat. I am sure UKIP's many expensive focus groups would tell UKIP that if asked but it is the question that sycophant dare ask for fear of losing their place on the UKIP gravy train. Farage cannot win in South Thanet especially now Al Murray is on the scene to out Farage Nigel. The question, is Farage a certain loser in South Thanet is the question that dare not speak its name on UKIP's NEC..