Sunday, 17 May 2015

Referendum facts

To win the in/out Cameron referendum requres a 51% vote in favour of leaving the EU. Last year in Scotland the SNP under Alex Salmond backed by Nicola Sturgeon and a superb organisation could only get 45% and we all saw how Nicola trounced Cam, Mil and Cleggy in the General Election debate.It shows the  enormity of the task we face to get a leave the EU vote. LibLabCon are not scared of the referndum vote. As things stand they would win it 2 to 1.  Hence Burnham was quite happy today to call for an early referendum vote. This calls Farage's non-bluff like his non-resignation.

On 7th May UKIP won 12.6% of the national vote. To win the referendum they will have to quadruple that vote. That siimply cannot be done on UKIP votes. You need to attract millions of voters who voted LibLabCon.

On  7th May. UKIP got 3.8 million votes. LabCon got 20.6 million, the SNP and LibDems who are EU fanatics together got 3.8 million. So the Out campaign has to pick up roughly 10.5 million votes from LabCon to secure an out vote. That's a big ask.and with Farage anywhere near the campaign its impossible.

If Farage  truely believed in getting us out of the EU he should have stuck to his resignation on that simple point that the coming crucial referendum out campaign could not succeed with him on board. He should have done as Captain Oates and sacrificed himself for the greater good but of course Nigel is not made of Captain Oates material.

Farage and his cabal are now irrelevant. Its the referendum first and last..

So what to do? I suggest Stuart Wheeler, Zac Goldsmith andother wealthy supporters of leaving the EU approach the wizard of Oz, Lynton Crosby and ask him to name his price to organise and run the Out campaign with total control over policy, personnel everything. We could always mount an appeal to bring in the money or as in the Day of the Jackal rob a few banks. Getting rid of a few bankers would go down well with todays voters.

Its the only way we can win. We have to buy this election with mercenaries. Forget principles and scruples just win.That's what the EU will do except they will be using your money to do it.

Be pragmatic as Henry of Navarre was when offered the French crown if he would convert to Catholicism from his Protestant religion. He did saying , "Paris is worth a mass"

We must be pragmatic.We have to buy the best for our children's sake.


Mike Bridgeman said...

In 2014 at the EU elections Ukip got 27% of the vote on a 34% turnout. They were the largest party with most MEPs.
A rather better picture than that painted by the general election and, I suggest, more relevant.

Eric Edmond said...

I don't agree. Europeans are irrelvant, General Elections matter and if you look at the Scottish Referendum people turned out in huge numbers because the kno it was there future. Basing anything on Euro elections is delusional. People don't even know which person they are voting for.

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