Monday, 31 October 2011

How to save the PIGS bacon

The answer is simple, split the Euro into a Mark area, Germany, Belgium, Holland, Finland and Austria and a Euro area comprising the PIGS and other dodgy European economies. The Euro will then devalue big time boosting the PIGS economies but as their debt will be denominated in Euro they will repaying their debts in a devalued currency.

On the other side the Mark area currency will appreciate from the old Euro rate reducing their debt burden big time. Who loses? Well the PIGS bondholders but this way its perfectly legal and can trigger no nasty CDS inducing credit events ie defaults. Who gains? Holders of bunds who can repay in devalued Euro that they can buy on the open market. You don't  have to redenominate their old Euro debt. Again all strictly kosher.

The observant amongst you will notice France is absent from my list. Its a tricky problem. Economically it belongs in the Mark area which will be politically dominated even more by Germany. A difficult problem for Sarky. Does he want to be the biggest fish in the Euro pond or the number 2 fish in the Mark pond. A  choice  Sarky wants to avoid but as AEP writing in today's business DT a choice that is unavoidable.

You end up with two workable currency areas rather than what we have now, one unworkable area. Will it happen? I doubt it. Much humble pie would need to be eaten by the Eurocrats and they don't do humble pie or common sense either. Like Napoleon they will march on until the onset of the coming freezing economic winter forces a retreat. For students of history that great French military genius Napoleon crossed into Russia with an army of 500,000 and exited with an army of 10,000. The Eurozone, the latter day Grande Armee, might well meet a similar fate unless common sense prevails but pride is a deadly sin with deadly consequences for others not of course the cosseted Eurocrats.

Merkel warns of another conflict in Europe that only the EU can prevent. She has got it the wrong way round. The coming meltdown is an EU creation from start to finish. The hubristic EU is the cause not the cure.

Saturday, 29 October 2011

Eurozone deal starts to unravel

First a clarification on my Commons debate blog which could have been read as Trevor Colman left UKIP. I should have made it clear by adding the words 'MEP group' but as  I was writing in the context of  the European parliament I omitted to add these words. Apologies for any misunderstanding caused. If I post something you think is wrong please post a comment on my blog to that effect.

Yesterday the Italians had to pay 6.06% at their 10 year bond auction. I f you look back at my blog earlier this week you will see then the Italian 10 year was trading around 5.95%! The great deal has been counter productive for the Italians it seems. I expect more of the same for the other PIGS.

I am astounded that the EU are going cap in hand to one of the nastiest most totalitarian regimes in the world and not a squeak from our Lib Dems, Labour and other liberal apologists. Abuse of human rights is a way of government in China but where the great project's survival is concerned all moral scruples are irrelevant. The EU's emissary will have a hard time persuading the Chines to part with their cash to such a bankrupt operation. They will drive a very hard bargain the details of which will be so humiliating they will never be made public.

The whole rescue is full of holes as to where the money is coming from. There is a huge circularity. Banks lend to governments so they can recapitalise ie give money back to the banks. There will be a huge amount of money printed by the ECB and when the Germans realise what is going on Merkel will be toast.

Thursday, 27 October 2011

Eurozone Deal Mark 5

I occasionally get contacted by the Evening Standard for my take on matters financial. I reproduce the content of my email to them below. Whether they use it or not is up to their editor.

(What I find amusing is to hear my neighbour  Ashdown pompously declaiming on TV today that if we were in the inner EU group we could fashion EU rules to suit the UK . I stopped believing in fairy stories many years ago but I guess the sandals, beards and orange anorak brigade,  the Lib Dem's first of foot, still like a nice comforting bedtime fairy tale from Paddy.)

My email:

Your piece covers most of the angles but as always the devil will be in the
detail that has not yet been made public probably because they have not yet
thought it through to a proposal stage.

The Chinese think very long term, 10 years is nothing to them. They will
want a long term lasting solution to the Eurozone crisis before they would
have the confidence to invest. They will demand their pound of flesh which I
opine might be a long term secret most favoured nation status for Chinese
exports to the EU which probably Sarkozy and Merkel can deliver but in the
long run it will be a poor bargain for the EU. Of course the real point is
to save Sarkozy's, election next year, and Merkel's political skins.

The Chinese will of course insist their loan ranks pari passu with the IMF
and ECB so no haircuts for them!

I feel the EU would do better with a mixture involving the Middle East
sovereign oil funds plus possibly some from the Norwegians. The Arabs think
more short term. They bailed out Barclays in 2008 and then exited at a
profit within 18 months. A clean deal. Any Chinese deal will have a very
long tail.

We are deluding ourselves if we think we could have any influence in these
matters. Germany has the money, end of story. Merkel is also rattling the
European nightmare of aother European war. Completely impossible in my view.
The US would never stand for it but I am surprised that Merkel, a Prussian,
raised this. She must be desperate.

On the Eurozone itself I cannot see the other countries being happy long term
with Franco German domination. The Sarkozy Merkel humiliation of Berlusconni
will have been a bit scary for the other Latin countries.

It is of course another sticking plaster job avoiding the real reforms that
Greece etc have to make. It also creates huge moral hazard in that the
Portuguese, Irish, Spanish and Italians will demand the same treatment for
their debts.

It looks like its the private sector that will take the hit when a country
borrows too much. Very bad for a private sector led recovery. Public sector
holders of Greek debt apparently do not face a write off of some of their
holdings. Greek taxpayers will still have to pay interest and repay capital
to the various public sector holders.

Are  Euro area leaders going to say to private sector pension funds and
savers that they should not expect a Euro area government to
honour its debts and repay money borrowed?. It won't just be Athens that will
see street protests but Italy as well given the trouble already raging there on
raising the pension age to 67.

I hope these countries have enough police to provide their elected
representatives with a 24 hour police guard. They may well need it to
protect them from the enraged populace when the ramifications of the 'deal'
sinks in.

Wednesday, 26 October 2011

A referendum to keep up the momentum of Monday's debate

Now the door has opened it is time to keep up the pressure on the EU lovers. The core argument all who want their country back must rebut is that it is an economic benefit to the UK to be in the EU and if we left we would have mass unemployment and a complete economic meltdown in the UK. A I wrote that is bollocks. It is a scare story fabricated by the EU philes and articulated ad nausem by Shirley Williams etc over the last 35 years to keep the UK public believing that without big Daddy EU we will be destroyed. but how do we rebut it?

This morning I found in my email box coming I suspect via Tim Congdon details of another e-petition that has just been started calling for:

" An independent cost benefit analysis of the UK membership of the EEC /EU since 1972. The resulting information to be published before a national referendum on whether to leave or remain a member of the EU."

This is something I have asked for many times since before Heath took us in and has always been refused by the political elite as expensive and pointless as the EU was so self evidently to our benefit. Well now we can force another debate in parliament like Monday's. Click on link to go through to the referendum page. If this link does not connect enter

in your web browser address line

Its the same rules as for Nikki's, we need to get 100000 signatures to force a debate and its all done over the web and by email - dead easy. This is the debate that will kill a lot of the EU lies and propaganda. I urge you to do it if you want your country back.

Tuesday, 25 October 2011

EU Referendum Debate

The result of 81 Tories voting against Cameron can only be a good result for the UK. It however shows just how dependent the boy's government  is on Lib Dem support. Not a nice place to be as they are the most duplicitous and two faced of all UK political parties. If you wanted to pick out the nastiest dictatorships, just choose those with the word Democratic in their title. Pure Dr Goebbels! Thus it is with political parties. The Lib Dems are the most undemocratic and unscrupulous party operating  in the UK, They hide behind weasel words more than the Tories or Labour. Clegg was at it again today saying they would call a referendum if there was a further significant transfer of powers to the EU. Who says what is significant? Why Clegg over of course. I opine there never will be a significant transfer in the LibDem view.

Nikki with support from the Daily Express has put the EU problem  onto the UK political agenda big time for the rest of this parliament. It was amusing to see Farage jumping on the band wagon yesterday. Its available as a YouTube post on the UKIP website. It was a typical Farage rant in front of around 50 or so UKIP supporters. His cry against our MPs of 'Let them not forget' should resonate with these supporters also who should ask Farage, "What did you do to get the great debate dear leader?"

Many of the parliamentarians made excellent speeches raising many good points that Dave wants to ignore. David Nuttall who moved the motion raised an issue close to my heart viz the forced closure of the Bury special care baby unit because of the EU working time directive. This was laughed at by the Labour front bench. They should go up and explain the joke to the mothers who lost their babies in Bury because of the lack of neonatal special care medical staff. Truly those who control all the UK political parties including UKIP are the dregs  of humanity.

The difference between the front bench careerist politician speeches and those from the backbenches, many from MPs with no hope of preferment was obvious. The latter spoke from the heart and had clearly listened to their constituents. The former merely mouthed the party line and their interest was clearly their own political career. Farage's EUkip carries on just like the LibLabCon whips, threatening decent people with de-selection and demotion for not toeing the great leader's moronic line. Its not just boy Dave who has made a big mistake and misjudged the mood of his party and the country.

Things will never be the same for boy Dave. Like Greek debt backbench rebellion is contagious! In politics its not the enemies in front but the ones behind you have to watch out for. Dave has made a lot of enemies in the Tory party in a very short time. He is being propped up by Clegg over, not a prop I would want in my front row! His only positive is he is facing the worst leader of Labour since Michael Foot but it is a truism that oppositions don't win elections, governments lose them. If the next election returns the LibDems to the obscurity they deserve then that will be a positive result for the UK and would make another 5 years of Labour more palatable.

I think we are in for an interesting year politically and I would say its even money that the Coalition wont go the full distance.

Monday, 24 October 2011

Commons Debate will show up EUKIP's failure

Nikki Sinclaire with her hard work has achieved a hit on the EU phile Tories that Farage and his sleazy cabal of EU paid Brussels based drinking cronies could never have achieved. They only pay lip service to leaving the EU and have no intention of doing anything practical to further getting us out of the EU. You only have to look at their hopeless, antiquated web site , proprietor J Arnott, and compare it to the Greens, Lib Dems etc to see how little effort EUKIP makes between MEP elections. This stems from not just a lack of will at the top but a deliberate attempt to sabotage the efforts of those who could articulate the arguments to further our cause, mainly by kicking them out of UKIP leaving only the Farage loyalists who are not up to any serious factual political debate but do ad  hominen attacks ad nauseam. Nikki Sinclaire suffered from this as did I and many others.

It is to Nikki's everlasting credit that she refused to be distracted by these malicious attacks and attempts to sabotage her campaign and pressed on to achieve an outstanding result. There is an excellent post on Butcher's forum which summarise this very well. Click on link to read it

Trevor Colman, Rick Timis and Andrew Fear attempt to rectify some of the information deficiencies of UKIP on their The EUnit web site. Click on link to access. Trevor of course has now left UKIP's MEP group refusing, like Nikki, to associate with Farage's nasty neo-fascist 'colleagues' in the European parliament.

Farage, allegedly for red leather reasons wants to ingratiate himself with Boy Dave and the Tories. Hence his electoral offer reported in Saturday's Daily Telegraph that UKIP will not oppose those Tory MP's who today vote for a referendum on our EU membership. Click on link to read. Sounds a bit like UKIP's last great  Tory leader Pearson who even went out canvassing for the Tories.

Listen Farage if I and most other UKIP activists had wanted to work for the Tories we would have joined the Conservative party.  I don't like being conned.

Ashley Mote in the letter also published in Saturday's DT nails Cameron' undeliverable promise to repatriate powers to the UK from the EU. As Ashley's letter makes clear it can't be done while staying in the EU. its a lie and Cameron knows it!


MPs and others supporting the option of renegotiating British membership of the EU forget one crucial fact.

The process of Asquis Communautaire is embedded in the treaties.  It is a one-way ratchet.  Once the EU has taken “competence” over an area of government, it cannot be returned to the member states.  

Our only realistic alternative to membership is to walk away, take our billions with us, and wish them well.  If that is how Europeans want to govern themselves, that is a matter for them. 

We were far better off as a global player – and can be again. 

Europeans are our neighbours.  They should be our friends.  They cannot be masters in someone else’s house.

Ashley Mote

Precisely!  Ashley was of course kicked out of UKIP by the Farage regime in the usual manner and Andreasen installed as an MEP in Farage's South East region at Farage's behest. Where is Andreasen now? I gather she mainly divides her time between Barcelona and Brussels. Bannerman, another Farage protege, has gone of to the Tories.

But its the dog that will not bark that counts. There are no UKIP MP's in the Commons today to speak for our cause nor will there ever be while Farage controls UKIP. That is EUKIP's eternal shame.

Friday, 21 October 2011

What are the bond markets saying about the Eurozone

It is difficult to know what is going on in Euroland principally because I suspect the Eurocrats themselves have no idea what is happening. Sarky is dancing attendance on Merkel because he wants her money. The lady is not for parting with it because if she did her electorate would crucify her. The Germans are very unhappy. The gave up their excellent currency, the Deutschemark and superb Bundesbank for the dodgy Euro and politically malleable ECB.

The markets views as always are expressed in their pricing of bonds so let me try and update my little table of sovereign bond spreads that I last updated 7 weeks ago:

15th July 18th July 16th August 2nd Sept 21st Oct

Greece 17.71% (15.02) 18.23% (15.57) 15.51 (13.18) 18.28(16.18) 24.7 (22.5)

Ireland 14.27% (11.58) 14.45% (11.79) 10.18 (7.85) 8.73(6.63) 8.23(6.03)

Portugal12.93% (10.24) 12.84% (10.18) 10.90 (8.57) 10.50(8.40) 11.76(9.56)

Spain 6.07% (3.38) 6.32% (3.67) 5.02 (2.69) 5.10(3.00) 5.34(3.15)

Italy 5.77% (3.09) 5.99% (3.34) 5.04 (2.70) 5.20(3.10) 5.84(3.64)

Greece bond yields have increased and Greece is now on ECB life support. Ireland continues to make good progress. The Spanish have improved a bit and the Italians are now slightly worse than 3 months ago despite a huge amount of Euro babble. German rates have hardened but French rates have now softened to a bund spread of 0.96% compared with the UK's 0.41%. Its not just Merkel Sarky is not impressing its also the markets.

I doubt things will be any clearer after the weekend. For sure there will be a huge amount of hot air from the tower of Babel. Greece has to default soon to stop the contagion. The French banks are strapped for cash and will need a bail out. Sarky wants the EU to pay but the Dr Frau says Nien. Use your own dosh Sarky. Never mind Sarky wee George and Cameron are a softer touch!

Thursday, 20 October 2011

The Great Dabate Debacle

UK membership of the Common Market now the EU has been one of history's great con jobs. A disgraceful political argument fighting the last war masquerading as an economic movement. There never were any economic benefits for the UK in 1972. I worked in the Civil Service at that time. There were certainly not any economic benefits to the UK then, only losses like our Fisheries, but fishermen had no votes in Toryland. There are considerably less benefits now especially when you add in the effects of uncontrollable EU immigration.

It was a political project from the start and remains a political project to this day. A desire for a United States of Europe generated by the humiliation the French in particular felt for having to be rescued by the hated Anglo Saxons twice in 25 years from the Huns and then the Russians. That motley incompetent crew of money grabbing mid Europeans who run the EU think they can compete with the USA. God help us if it ever comes to a real shooting war with these people in charge! I don't know what Barroso, Rumpy and Frumpy do to you but the idea they run the EU terrifies me.

Our basic problem is the huge democratic deficit we have in this country that enables the political class to get away with murder. Countries like Switzerland and Norway that have a real democracy have fared much better. Not in the EU, trading with Europe and with a high and rising per capita standard of living.

Our House of Commons is a mid 18th century joke with its nonsensical procedures that the political class exploit to feather their own nests and become Lords eventually. That is the root of our problem which will persist even if we get out of the EU.

The economic benefits claimed by the Europhiles are not because of the EU but despite it! I heard the slimy LibLabCon MacMillan Scott claim today that the EU had kept inflation on target these last 10 years. We achieved the same in the UK for 10 years under Eddie George. As a member of the MPC for most of that time admiited to me, "Is it because we are good? No its because we have been lucky to live in such benign times.

I want to vomit every time I hear a Europhile claiming credit for successes they had nothing to do with. Things are now getting a lot harder! Tell the Greeks about the benefits of EU rule and see the answer you get. When the times get tough the EU crats tell bigger and bigger lies like a collection of Comical Alis.

The other side, the stick, is the claim about how much trade we would lose if we left the EU. Andrew Neil nailed that one yesterday. WTO/GATT agreements cover 93% of our trade with the EU. Its an empty threat!

Still the great debate will expose the Witney Witterer for what he is, a secret Europhile. Funnily enough in 1969 his predecessor as MP for Witney, Old Etoniasn Hurd visited our student house in Oxford with E Heath. Europhilia is endemic in Witney or maybe they contract it at Eton.

Tuesday, 18 October 2011

Well done Nikki & her EU referendum team. Farage should resign

As a result of Nikki Sinclaire's referendum campaign and all the hard work her team put in to get the required 100,000 signatures demanding a parliamentary debate on a national referendum on our continued membership of the EU we have a debate in the Commons on 27th October. Brilliant! It was a terrific effort by Nikki and her loyal team

She achieved this in the teeth of determined attempts to sabotage her campaign by Farage and his political careerist sycophants. She has shown what can be done and what UKIP can achieve if it rids itself of the dead weight of Farage and his odious, self seeking, careerist cabal.

I call for Farage to resign as leader and for Nikki, Trevor Mike Natrass and every one else expelled by the Cabal to be readmitted to UKIP.

We can then have a proper leadership election with candidates who want to leave the EU not those failed Tories like the Hamiltons who have done nothing for UKIP but desperately want to get on the MEP gravy train.

Farage is a loser for our cause surrounded by ex-Tory losers. He has to go.

Now is our hour with the Eurozone in total disarray and a huge ground swell of public opinion against the EU in the UK and Germany.

I watched Nikki on Andrew Neil's politics show today. She was excellent and has correctly positioned her strategy to appeal to all voters across the political spectrum, Tory and Labour. That is what will deliver us out of the EU and return to us our country. Joan of Arc did it for France 500 years ago. Nikki can do it for us today.

Monday, 17 October 2011

EU philes two big lies

To life's great lies, the cheque is in the post, I will still love you in the morning, we must add leaving the EU will cost jobs in the UK and the EU has kept the peace in Europe these last 50 years. Both are the exact opposite of the truth. They are scare stories to frighten the electorate into supporting the EU. UKIP must nail them at every opportunity.

The jobs scare story main proponent over the last 40 years has been the silver spoon in mouth, hypocrite Socialist Shirley Williams who while foisting comprehensive schools on everyone else without her wealth was sending her own children to fee paying schools. A woman who has never done a proper job in her life.

It was great to hear on Radio 4 tonight the BBC at last acknowledge it was possible to leave. A Civitas think tank spokesman told the truth about the job scare. The truth is the EU costs us jobs in the UK, directly in manufacturing and many more indirectly through its suffocating legislation which our own home grown bureaucrats love to gold plate. Any economic recovery in the UK is hindered not helped by our EU membership.

Businessmen who say otherwise are of course talking their own book and self interest. Nothing wrong with that provided their vested interest in the EU is admitted.

I heard one Tory MP at the weekend claim he had been to a meeting of 400 business men at the weekend and not one wanted to leave the EU. What was this meeting in aid of? I doubt if was a random sample. And I seem to recollect UK business was gung ho for UK's disastrous membership of the ERM. Business men speak for themselves not the UK population as any trade unionist will correctly tell you.

As for loss of the EU market, the UK has been trading with Europe long before the Roman's came to Rye and up the Severn strode and will continue to trade with Europe long after the EU has demised. Why? Self interest! And that is why any threats of banning UK goods are empty. The EU would lose twice what the UK did.

The peace claim is laughable. Look how the EU cannot even organise a rescue of a tiny country like Greece. Does anyone seriously believe this dysfunctional, motley crew of dodgy mid-Europeans could organise anything let alone the defence of Western Europe. Clearly the Yanks who did keep the peace in Europe these last 65 years via NATO don't think the Brussels shower can run anything. They are a collection of Tony Blair's. A hot air machine that produces initiative after initiative. Who cares if they work? Just crank up the hot air machine and move on to the next whizzo idea.

Saturday, 15 October 2011

US loses patience with the Eurocrats

The headlines in today's business pages make it clear the US wants action from the Eurozone over its long running Greek debt Eurozone crisis. Its not just the US but also the German banks that want action. The latter arises as the Basle capital adequacy rules assign zero risk weight to any Eurozone sovereign bonds held by Eurozone banks. It is obvious nonsense to assign the same risk free weight to German and Greek bonds but in the calculation of a bank's capital adequacy that is what currently happens.

Bankers know this and that is why they are unhappy about lending to other banks on the unsecured inter-bank market. It is a cardinal rule of banking that if you think there is the slightest risk you will not be repaid then don't lend. That is why the interbank market is virtually closed. To put it in a metaphor some UKIP MEPs will understand its like going into a brothel and not knowing which of the girls, or boys, have nasty sexually transmitted diseases that you wish to avoid contracting. As an old Scottish doctor said to me the only way to be sure in these circumstances is don't go there or as a banker don't lend on the inter-bank market.

There are ways around it. Banks can lend on the inter-bank repo market but this requires sovereign debt transfers as loan collateral. The collateral you would most likely be offered is BTPs, Italian government debt which is less than reassuring to the Anglo Saxons and also the Germans and French.

The relationship between bank lending and sovereign debt is thus the most crucial in finance.

After Lehman in 2008 we had a banking crisis with lots of banks with dodgy mortgage backed securities on their balance sheets to which even today they have not owned up to but the sovereign bond core was solid. Now our Eurozone friends have added sovereign debt risk on top! No wonder the Yanks are unhappy. They have made it clear the Sarky Merkel proposal of expanding the IMF balance sheet is a non-starter and they own the IMF despite the fragrant Frogette MD.

The problem is who pays for this Eurozone cock up. Sarky and his fellow travellers want some one else to pay. The US are having none of it. To repeat and parody what I was told many years ago by an EU DG, its a European problem and requires a European solution but of course that was if no payment was involved. Now there is the latest idea is to make the bond holders pay by taking a 'haircut'. That is what we Anglo Saxons unhelpfully call a default.

Next up is the EU pays but it does not have any money so it wants Sarky to pay. Sacre bleu! Do these fools not realise France is in the EU to take money out not put it in.

I have no idea what the EU will come up with at the G20 but it better be good!

Tuesday, 11 October 2011

Madame LePen shows UKIP how to capitalise on Euro crisis

The most unpopular group in all European countries are the bankers. Every politician worth his salt is trying to cash in on popular anger against the bankers, Milliband, Cameron, Cable etc. In Europe its the same story with Sarkozy and Merkel bashing the bankers for all they are worth. And the reason, because that's where the votes are.

Nothing depresses me more than the complete failure of Farage's EUKIP to capitlalise on the banker's unpopularity and the long running Eurozone crisis. They prefer to attack me with ancient lies  rather than attack the EU. Not so Marine LePen in France who has broadened her father's National Front party's appeal to the extent that she is now a real threat to Sarkozy in the first round of the 2012 French presidential election.

She has added to her father's vote wining anti-immigrant position  strong anti-Euro, anti bank and anti globalisation policies that appeal to France's large group of left wing trade unionist voters. So her party now appeals across the whole political spectrum and in  particular to the blue collar voters sick of shoring up the Euro and the oppressive power of global finance. She now appeals to the little people fed up with losing jobs to global rivals. LePen is promising to pull France out of the Euro, reinstate trade barriers and reassert the state's supremacy over market forces.

She is tapping into the huge anti-EU feeling in the French working class. All UKIP's bunch of old failed Tories will appeal to is a few old Tories who will return to vote Tory when it matter! That is never going to worry Dave and his chums. Who are UKIP's latest star recruits according to their spin machine? Hamilton and Lord Hesketh. Just the sort of people not to appeal to the UK working class and hard pressed middle class. Let them join UKIP by all means but why shout about it?

Marine LePen  has put her parties finances on a sound footing. When will Farage do the same for UKIP? Outside her parties Paris office stands a statue of Joan of Arc who saved France from foreign domination. That is who she is aiming to emulate. She is a true patriot. All UKIP can offer is third rate and defunct ex Tories, juvenile fourth rate political careerists and neo-fascist mid Europeans.

Friday, 7 October 2011

UKIP NEC Ballot guide

Last year I published a marked card of NEC candidates. Many people last year told me they found it helpful to know where candidates loyalties lay.  By overwhelming popular request I repeat this for this years runners and riders.

The two outstanding independent thinking candidates are:

David Rowlands
Mike Smith

both include one MEP , John Bufton and Trevor Colman as seconders. Trevor is now Independent UKIP and John is veering that way. I have worked with John and Trevor in the South West and I can vouch for their honesty, integrity and dedication to our cause. Both Mr Rowlands   and Mr Smith have real experience and are not reliant financially in any way on UKIP.

Then I would put those apparently untainted by Cabal and Young Independence (Farage youth) influence, no MEPs or party paid hacks amongst their proposers,

David Black
Nigel Carter
Charles Dodman
Michael Thomas
Rob McWhirter

The last would raise UKIP's IT quotient/

(The last is seconded by Julia Reid who I know can stand up to Farage)

If you want an independent NEC representing and upholding UKIP's aims and ideals then I suggest you vote for the first two above. Unlike the Cabal they are definitely not in UKIP for personal gain and as such represent the true ethos and spirit of UKIP.

The remainder are tainted by a mixture of MEP  and party hack support and  youth lacking experience. An easy target for Farage dangled Brussels baubles and finance. Most are to a greater or lesser extent Farage sycophants with some indeed supported by Farage himself or his long time associates Nuttall and  Malcolm Wood.

I see D Denny, another long time Farage supporter, boasts of being involved in  altering the party constitution yet again! So if you  want less party democracy in UKIP and more rule from the top think carefully about how you vote.

Neil Hamilton has more political baggage than Jacob Marley's ghost but I can see one good reason for having him on board. He would be a credible alternative leader to Nigel Farage! I anticipate there will be increasing unhappiness in UKIP when Farage pushes on with his pan European party. There will be resulting leadership challenge. UKIP needs a complete clear out at the top and Mr Hamilton and his wife might just do that.

Wednesday, 5 October 2011

Why Nigel Farage needs the BNP

I took a call from a friend today who told me there were anonymous postings on Democracy Forum associating me with the BNP. For the record I have never been a member of the BNP. I have never attended a BNP meeting nor shared a platform with a BNP speaker. I have only ever been a member of one political party, UKIP.

If this anonymous poster cares to put his name to his lies I will sue them for defamation. I know UKIP's lawyer warned all the then UKIP NEC that I would be certain to take court action if they linked me with the BNP directly or indirectly without evidence to support these allegations.

Why when the EU is at its weakest and UKIP has a once in a lifetime to topple the whole edifice does the UKIP spin machine waste its energies in internecine attacks on me and drags in the BNP? The only explanation is the UKIP  hierarchy and wannabe MEPs do not want us out of the EU. They want to get on the EU gravy train. The money that flows from this plus promise of Brussel's jobs sustains the Cabal and its wannabe members and maintains Nigel Farage's grip on UKIP.

Nigel Farage was for the BBC the acceptable face of right wing Eurosceptism keeping  the BNP bogey men off the air. It ensured Nigel a steady flow of appearances on high profile BBC political  programmes with opportunities for Nigel to do what he is good at, promoting Nigel. It also ensured Nigel an easy ride without any real follow up or research by BBC interviewers. Where is Farage's oft claimed web posting of his expenses? Why does he continue to employ his wife?  Why has his claimed former lucrative City business career never been investigated. His interviews are littered with inconsistent answers but these were never followed up. Why?

Compare that to the treatment meted out to Griffin by the BBC at that rigged London Question Time with a carefully selected biased audience. Certainly the BNP has some extremely nasty racist policies and some very unpleasant people but so do Nigel's allies in the EU, the Liga Nord etc. UKIP is also not short of unpleasant people with unedifying habits.

The BNP however is now falling apart. Griffin has been seduced by the EU money and status. It is no longer a credible political force that  the left wing BBC needs to worry about. As a result the BBC no longer feels it has to promote Mr Farage as before . It has been noticeable that in the last year the able, intelligent, articulate Daniel Hannan is now the BBC's Brussels based MEP Eurosceptic interviewee of choice.

The UKIP Cabal are now desperately trying to fan the BNP embers into life to restore the previous
BNP bogey men in the BBC's pantheon of hate figures and restore Nigel to his former most favoured status. That is why I am now being attacked. It's  pathetic and cannot possibly have any effect. It merely shows how inadequate and juvenile are those who spin for UKIP.

Nigel was always very  assiduous in accusing his self perceived enemies of BNP membership or links but things have changed with the BNP crumbling and this tactic will no longer work. Politicians have always needed bogey men to frighten the electorate into voting for them. Its a pity Nigel's one has just died!

Tuesday, 4 October 2011

Lisbon Treaty & Bank Tobin Tax - the same EU winning tactics

Shock, horror at this weeks Tory conference where one of their MEPs, Kay Swinburne, announced that the EU tax commissioner,  Lithuanian Algirdas Semeta, had already started work on presenting this Financial Transaction Tax (FTT) as a Value Added Tax stripping the UK of its right to veto this proposal which will cost the City €50 bn. a year and cost the rest of the EU about €5bn. Now that's the sort of deal Sarkozy can really get behind and support!

If it were presented  as a new tax then of course wee George could veto it. But alas the Tory Europhiles who were quite happy to go along with this deceit over the rejected Constitutional Treaty  rebranding as the Lisbon Treaty  are in Nelsonian terms going to be hoist with their own petard. Giscard d'Estaing author of the Constitutional was quite open about the rebranding, just the same message in a different envelope which the UK electorate could not vote on. I cannot believe the FO did not appreciate this  but of course they represent Johnny Foreigner not the UK taxpayer.

It will be the same with the FTT. The UK will not get to veto the proposal which will be decided by qualified majority voting (QMV) and I opine the UK will be in a minority of one. After all why pay for something yourself if you can make the Brits pick up the tab! The other money grab by the EU concerns settlement systems having to be relocated out of the City into the Eurozone for safe keeping. This will cost the UK ten times the FTT. Its all a bit boring and esoteric but it will cost lots of people their jobs in the City just the same.

Cameron of course has stated he will use the same tactic to deny us a referendum on the EU. The Tories never change. I remember Heath doing the same thing in 1972. Cameron's fatuous claim that it is not the right time for a referendum of course this is because he knows they would lose! That is of course the traditional politicians response. Don't have a referendum if you think you might lose! Cameron was quite happy with the AV referendum because he knew he would win!

I have written little recently on the Greek Eurozone crisis as it is unfolding exactly along the lines I predicted months ago. All I can say is that the longer it goes on the worse and more painful it will be in the end. The Greeks will go on asking for billions more Euros until someone says No when they will default. The EU will want a default which does not hurt the French and German banks ie they will be paid in full and the others will take a big haircut of at least 50%. The legal cases will run and run.

It is a good job that the markets will hold the EU to account. Our elected representatives certainly won't! They have been bought and house trained by the EU for many years. There is no democracy for us and short of a revolution I cannot see us ever getting it back. Our MPs represent their party not their constituents and I can only see this democratic deficit being remedied by a possibly violent revolution.

Saturday, 1 October 2011

Why our elected represenatives love the EU?

Well the short answer is that is where the money is for them. Also, as the EU discourages elections and referendums it provides the political class with secure employment, little risk of redundancy and huge pensions.However in the unlikely event these pensions are not adequate an EU career also provides a host of lucrative quango type appointments to keep our former EU politicians in the style to which they have become adjustment post retirement. In short getting into and supporting the EU is a great career move for politicians who would struggle to earn a crust outside.

Surely by now the UK electorate will have noticed how quickly our elected representatives go native when they arrive in Brussels. Chauffeur driven limos, fact finding trips to such unpleasant places as the West Indies in winter plus a huge amount of flattery which is always very acceptable to a mediocre politicians ego and can turn even hardened Euro sceptics a bit like Karla turned Bill Haydon in Tinker Taylor.

This also affects how national politicians see the EU. After all they might graduate themselves to the gravy train one day! Thus Dr Frau Merkel was able to get through the Bundestag her incredible yet still inadequate 440 bn € Greek rescue package despite opinion polls showing 80% of her electorate were opposed. Surely the Dr Frau deserves the Charlemagne prize for this effort! I remember E Heath treated himself to his yacht Morning Cloud with his Charlemagne prize money. What will the Dr Frau buy herself I wonder?

I was away from home in Oxford until 10:30 last night. On the way down the A303 I listened to Question time on Radio 4 from Liverpool which had Burnham (Lab), Duncan (Tory), Polly Tonybee (Silver spoon in mouth party) and UKIP's scouser Paul Nuttall. Nuttall was introduced as a history lecturer and former professional football player although it later emerged that amounted to being on the books of 4th division (in ranking order) Tranmere Rovers. I would also like to know at which University in Liverpool Nuttall lectured, the premier league Liverpool, the Championship John Moores outfit or a first/second division former teacher training college. There are Universities and Universities!

(It so happens that I was at Oxford many years ago with a historian who was also on Tranmere's books. He never got his blue for soccer something which getting the best first in his year for history never made up for. He considered his University career a failure!)

The audience in Wigan was clearly overwhelmingly opposed to the EU but Nuttall with this home crowd backing did poorly in comparison to the 3 Oxbridge types. He may have been one these  UK footballers who could not put the ball into an open goal. He certainly gave that impression.

When I returned I switched on my recording of Question Time. from Liverpool. The audience again was overwhelmingly anti EU. I suppose  UKIP's spokesman on QT was Mr Oborne famous for his Mr Idiot description of an EU crat Newsnight this week incurring the wrath of  Paxo and Richard Lambert. Again despite the favourable audience Mr Oborne, whose style reminds me of Mr Farage, was out flanked and then proceeded to finish the job himself by praising Mrs Thatcher, a totemic hate figure in Liverpool. Collapse of stout party! It reminded me when Mrs T was PM Patrick Minford, later one of the 'wise' men with Tim Congdon for Norman Lamont  stood for the Tories in Birkenhead and was almost lynched when he went canvassing there.

Well with inadequates like Nuttall and Oborne articulating the anti-EU cause its little wonder that despite I opine an 80% anti EU feeling in the UK electorate boy Dave has no problem in getting his MPs to vote through any EU requests. Which MP in his right mind would wish to be identified with Nuttall or Oborne?

In fairness to UKIP members in the North West I must point out Nuttall was not their choice as MEP. Mr Beaman won the ballot but quickly resigned thereafter in Mr Nuttall's favour. I heard Mr Farage was very pleased  with, and even encouraged, this outcome.

Until UKIP gets some serious intellects representing their views who can hold their own with the Polly Toynbees (silver spoon in mouth party) of this world then the EU will continue to walk all over us. To be fair UKIP did try and recruit a member of the silver spoon in mouth party, William Legge son of Acid Raine, the step mum of Diana Spencer. But like Universities I guess there are silver spoons and silver spoons!