Friday, 23 December 2011

What is least worst place to put your dosh?

The answer dear reader is with George Osborne. Now that tells you how bad things really are. I recommended National Savings Index linked certificates about 2 years ago and was taken to task by one of Yeovil UKIP's stalwarts, Michael Canton. Ah Michael I bet you wish you had taken my advice then. Mrs Edmond did and she is now richer than me.

The big boys don't know what to do with their dosh either. The central banks keep printing it, rates keep falling, Gilts now yield 2%! Incredible.Right now its about preserving your dosh so give up any hope of making a real return on your money. If you can just hold onto it you are doing well.

Anyway I am off ski-ing in 15 hours. I may as well spend it now. If I can connect to internet I will try and post from my Alp.

Thursday, 22 December 2011

Send nuclear sub to Falklands says former first sea lord

I was delighted to read in today's DT Lord West, former ruler of the Queen's navy, advocating sending a nuclear sub to the Falklands in response to the Argies latest sabre rattling. I recommended  this action 12 days ago so I feel vindicated.

I picked this up as the certain response to the anti-British propaganda from the BBC on the lines of Britain friendless and isolated in the world as a result of Cameron using the veto in Brussels. The BBC has a lot to answer for. It is institutionally anti-UK and succours and encourages our enemies.

Remember the last Falkand's conflict was triggered by the FCO, the other great anti-UK government institution, withdrawing the one British vessel patrolling off the Falklands and tipping General Galtieri the wink that the UK would not act if he invaded the Falklands. How many lives did that cost?

At least Carrington the Foreign Secretary resigned over the FCO huge mistake but so far no one from the BBC has even hinted they are 'considering' their position. Cameron should be considering it for these overpaid traitors. They do huge damage to our country.

I watch Russia Today and find it gives a more balanced and pro British line than our Brussels Broadcasting Corporation. This evening it ran a twenty minute interview with Dan Hannan where the interviewer asked a question and shut up while Hannan answered and then went on to the next question. A pleasant chnge from the BBC technique of not allowing the interviewee to answer if they are not giving the answer the BBC want. They have the gall to  talk incessantly of their high professional standard of journalism, bollocks I say!

Hannan was excellent. He answered the questions fully and concisely in a pleasant educated style that clearly was winning adherents to the Eurosceptic cause. He is clearly the man to get behind to get us out EU control.

Wednesday, 21 December 2011

ECB lends 489bn€ to banks at 1% for 3 years

It was big bazooka time in Frankfurt this morning. The ECB met huge demand for its 3 year cheap money all 'secured' on some dodgy collateral. The Eurocrats are hoping the banks will rush out and buy PIGS sovereign debt yielding 5% plus tempted by the huge profit this carry trade offers if the sovereign repays in 3 years time!

So this carry trade involves taking on a lot of risk something banks have been keen to reduce recently. Merkel's whizzo haircut threats does not help sentiment either. The banks may therefore choose to use their new found Euros to repay their existing debt when it falls due and shrink their balance sheet.

The market reaction, raising the rate on Italian bonds by around 10 bps after the announcement  today indicates the latter is what the markets think banks will do. We will have to wait and see as this latter move would also signal a bank in trouble.

Tuesday, 20 December 2011

Spain borrowing costs dive, ECB loans seen at work

Thus reads Reuters head line today  reporting a 'successful' Spanish bill auction with 6 month paper going at 2.435% compared with 5.227% last month and 3 month bills going at 1.735% compared with 5.11% last month. This is all new ECB money at work. Draghi cannot admit to it publicly for fear of the Gestapo but the ECB is buying up Eurozone dodgy debt in size with newly minted money. 

Their strategy seems to be to buy just enough toilet paper to keep the PIGS in the market but keep the pressure on the dodgy politicians to push through the much needed tax and spending reforms. Its a nice trick if you can manage it but the markets view is more clear in the Italian 10 year rate of 6.62%, down about 0.5% from its recent high but still in bail out territory. Once the IMF etc have seen the books the truth and the worms will out.

I was going to write about the nauseating letter of self interest supporting the EU in today's DT but this has been adequately dealt with by Richard North in his EU referendum blog. One of the signatories Leon Brittan is still on the EU payroll via his  Commissioner's pension. These signatories  are all people who worship globalisation and have no concern for the ordinary working people of the UK. But as Richard writes, we are going to see a lot more of this in the next 6 months. 

Where is Farage's EUKIP rebuttal?

Monday, 19 December 2011

Mission impossible - save the euro

There is only one way to save the Euro, Germany must leave! This would rebalance the whole EU economy at a stroke as E Heath used to say. It requires political courage and leadership so far conspicuous by its absence and would have to be done quickly and secretly. I can do no better than quote that famous Scotsman MacBeth from the eponymous play.

If it were done when ’tis done, then ’twere well
It were done quickly. If the assassination
Could trammel up the consequence, and catch,
With his surcease, success; that but this blow
Might be the be-all and the end-all here,
But here, upon this bank and shoal of time,
We’d jump the life to come. But in these cases
We still have judgement here, that we but teach
Bloody instructions, which being taught return
To plague the inventor.

The Euro is certainly stuck on the bank and shoal of time with a strong wind from the markets pushing it further on. Ships in that position invariably break up and sink and that will be the Euro's inevitable fate if it does not lighten ship and jettison Germany.

The political elite, Monet's successors, will never allow that to happen. They will ensure the ship goes down with all hands except the EU commission who will be in their escape pod to Switzerland and their stash of loot.

Roger Bootle has an excellent piece in today's DT business on this topic a propos the UK.

"The UK policy establishment is still in the grip of three serious economic delusions which appear to dictate continued membership of the EU: top table syndrome, sizism and proximity fetishism."

The first means only politicians and their hangers on benrfit from the EU.

Second flies in the face of economic facts. The countries with the wealthiest ordinary people are small countries with small government and no political elite eg Switzerland, Norway and Singapore. Bootle discusses the reasons for this.

The third proximity argument may have had some credibility in 1950 but the world has changed dramatically since then What does globalisation mean but that we now trade with the whole world so why as Bootle argues should we be hamstrung by EU regulation when trading within the UK or without the EU!

Sarkozy's problem is not with us but with Germany. It is becoming increasingly obvious to all in the world that France is just a pimple on Germany's bum. Until the French face up to this unpalatable truth we will suffer more unjustified irrelevant attacks from the poison dwarf.

When the Franco Prussian politicians admit the truth in this matter the EU is finished, the Fourth Reich is born and we return to the thirties thanks to the EU. Already right wing neo-nazi parties are growing thanks to the EU Euro fanatics pushing more and more the people of Europe into unemployment. 

EUKIP as presently constituted is one of these parties. Alan Sked warned against it but as AEP notes EUKIP is now seen as a bunch of swivel eyed right wing loons.

EUKIP needed to recruit across the whole left right spectrum to succeed electorally. In stead it is just a dumping ground for failed Tories with huge political baggage like Neil Hamilton. You only have to look at Butcher's forum to see what is happening.

As Jeff Randall writes today the euro turkey is well and truly stuffed bit what comes next?

Friday, 16 December 2011

UKIP save deposit in Feltham & Heston

I woke this morning to the unmistakable tones of Farage on the radio so I knew UKIP must have had an OK result in Fetham an Heston. The full results were:

  • Seema Malhotra, Labour - 12,639 (54.42%, +10.79%)
  • Mark Bowen, Conservative - 6,436 (27.71%, -6.32%)
  • Roger Crouch, Liberal Democrats - 1,364 (5.87%, -7.87%)
  • Andrew Charalambous, UKIP - 1,276 (5.49%, +3.45%)
  • David Furness, BNP - 540 (2.33%, -1.21%)
  • Daniel Goldsmith, Green - 426 (1.83%, +0.74%)
  • Roger Cooper, English Democrats - 322 (1.39%)
  • George Hallam, London People Before Profit - 128 (0.55%)
  • David Bishop, Bus-Pass Elvis Party - 93 (0.40%)

It was a very low turnout of 28.8%, not unexpected on a cold night, in a safe Labour seat and a week before Xmas.

I agree with Farage that it was frustrating to get so close to the LibDems and just not quite manage to push them into 4th place.

I am sure the candidate worked very hard. The UKIP supporters I saw on TV all seemed a bit juvenile but as always it is the dogs that did not bark and were invisible I am concerned about.

Where was Marta Andreasen elected UKIP MEP for the Southern region? Where was Gerard Batten UKIP's London MEP? Where was Paul Nuttall UKIP's deputy leader and MEP? Please post answers on the comments section of this blog. I would love to have my suspicions disproved.

By-elections give small parties a heaven sent opportunity to raise their profile with the great British public. Its how the LibDems started off. I am old enough to remember Lubbock for the LibDems overturning a huge Tory majority in Orpington. It can be done and its one of the the few avenues open to minority parties but it takes a lot of effort and it has to start at the top of the party. UKIP's problem is many of its MEPs are there for the money not the cause. They want support but they don't want to give support.

Its campaigning on cold dark winter nights that tell you who is committed to our cause and who are there for the high life in Brussels and being feted in TV studios surrounded by a bevy of make up girls. UKIP had people who were great campaigners in all weather and all seasons, Alan Wood, Steve Allison, Mike Bridgeman and many others but all of whom are now no longer in UKIP. Too many chiefs, not enough Indians, too many sycophants is UKIP's story now. 

I applaud the candidate and Mr Farage. They have both I feel been let down by our MEPs. Farage is of course culpable as he approved these people as candidates and worse ensured other excellent people like Robin Page who would have been excellent MEPs were not put on the UKIP slate but Bannerman and Agnew were. That is the crucial weakness that makes  Mr Farage a poor leader. He is like Cameron a good PR man. Cameron however is surrounded by good able people, most chosen by their local constituency parties, who can cover up his lack of depth and knowledge. Nigel Farage got rid of such people at the top of UKIP for self serving sycophants of little ability. This has been the downfall of many leaders. I just hope Farage does not take UKIP with him when he falls.

Thursday, 15 December 2011

Spain is now a better credit than Italy

 Last night I strayed onto the Russia Today channel by mistake and guess who was on? Nigel Farage and it was one of his better efforts. Is he now a friend of Putin as well?  I suggest some enthusiastic supporter finds a Youtube link for this interview as it shows the Fuerher at his best.

Spain had a solid result at today's bond auction with the 10 year part of their offering, 1.4 bn€ going at 5.545% compared with 6.975% in November. The market seems more impressed with the democratic Spanish government than the Eurocrat Italian one. Six months ago Italy was the better credit but tonight its 10 year bond closed at 7%.

On the back of this result and some well received steady Eurozone inflation figures equity markets perked up as did the Euro, slightly.  The Greeks are making a start on tax collection with an estimated 45bn€ annual tax being evaded. Only 19% of such debts are deemed recoverable. "Politicians have made us tax evaders. Why should we follow the law when they are stealing? Let the politicians and the rich lead the way." is the quote from one Greek. Its the same in the UK.

In France Sarkozy and his chums are getting exercised about the threatened downgrade by the hated Anglo Saxon ratings agency . Former president Chirac has just received a two  year suspended jail sentence for corruption.  Its the French way.

Peter Oborne in today's DT points out our elected MPs are busy smearing and abusing their expenses watchdog. Things seem to be getting back to normal!  I was amused to see the Daily Mail recommending Cast Iron should send one his dysfunctional family trouble shooters to family Sarkozy, Paris, France. 

I was saddened to read of the death of Graham Booth. We had our differences but I never doubted his commitment to our cause.

Wednesday, 14 December 2011

No treaty means no referendum means another UKIP damaging Farage rant

The cosy relationship between Farage and the Tories has been playing out over the last few days. Rather than attacking the EU actions Farage of course cannot resist a cheap  ad hominem attack on Rumpy, Barroso etc.  Its on Youtube for the whole world to see the EU elite and elected MEPs laughing at EUKIP's leader. He is certainly doing everything he can to endorse Cameron's fruit cakes and loonies description of  EUKIP. His rants damages no one but EUKIP and helps Cameron's Tories no end. Farage knows this. It just makes him look nasty and stupid. So why does he carry on doing it?  The chance of bum on red leather I opine and a chance to participate in the BBC's nightly fandango of three lords a leaping, usually Ashdown plus two other Lords of the BBC's dance.

Several commentators have pointed out how Sarkoy's little plan enabled Cameron to go back waving his fictitious non veto and crying no referendum in our time. Sarky will gain electorally in France for kicking the rosbifs. Always a vote winner in France. Cameron's real problems lie on the home front and keeping Sam Cam in her recently refurbished Downing Street kitchen. Its a wonderful piece of political chicanery. He can now walk tall as Clegg says with the Tory backbenchers with the Lib Dems booing and hissing him like a panto villain. That's exactly what the whole show is, a Xmas pantomime with as little relation to reality as Dick Whittington. Turn again Cleggon Lord Mayor of Brussels town say the bells of Old Bailey and Clegg will certainly do that after a suitable spell in sulking to impress his grass roots. Ah British politics is indeed fortunate to have found two such consummate actors to replace Tony, a thespian par excellence to whose performing expertise all wannabe UK politicians aspire.

The financial marketeers however do not go to pantomimes. Pole dancing clubs are more their line. These rude menials pay no attention to the honeyed words and crocodile tears of our politicians.They are philistines who do not appreciate the beauty and weaving movements of the political dance. None of them would every appear on Strictly like Widdy or Curry! They are baser mortals whose only saving grace is to make money for themselves and if that fails help themselves like politicians try to do, to the money of others. What really annoys our political elite is these crude, rude people are far more successful at robbing the populace than our political elite and unlike our MPs don't get caught. Now how can that be? Only one explanation is possible, they must be smarter than the politicians but as Napoleon Bonoparte pointed out that's not too difficult.

Even as I write the Merkozy deal is unravelling politically. The FT today prints a story picked up by Richard North that several countries, Hungary, Sweden, Denmark, Ireland see problems getting it through their national parliaments. The most damaging comment comes from the Czech PM, 'Right now there
 is not much more than a blank sheet of paper and even the name of the future treaty might change. I think it would be politically short-sighted to come out with strong statements thatr we should sign that piece of paper.'
Possibly Dave no pals might have some pals soon.

On the finance front today's DT business, AEP et al, run a story entitled 'Euro rescue may cost UK extra £30 bn. This seems to be confirmed by an IMF statement which is €50 bn  different from the Merkozy Euroean Council statement to our detriment.

Today's Ipsos Mori poll has Tories at 41%, Labour 39%, Lib Dems 11%. That leaves 9% to be share beteeen the SNP, Plaid, Greens BNP and UKIP. Its not a great result for rant ng Nigel.

Reuters today reports, Italy paid a euro era record yield of 6.47 percent to sell five-year paper at its first auction of longer-term debt after the EU moved towards greater fiscal integration at last week's summit, but failed to convince markets it can solve the debt crisis.

The average yield at Wednesday's sale compares with an auction rate of 6.29 percent Italy paid a month ago, which was also a euro lifetime record high.

Rome sold 3 billion euros (2.5 billion pounds) of the September 2016 BTP 

The difference between a 10 year bond yield and a 5 year bond rate depends on the slope of the yield curve This auction has pushed up the 10 year rate to 7.17% this morning. Investors will be getting very nervous and there is a huge amount of Italian bond out there to be nervous about.

Thus today's  German auction of 2 year bonds went at 0.29% compared with 0.39% at the last two year auction. Put the two results together and the conclusion is investors will pay up for safety. They are scared.

In the UK unemployment has hit a 17 year high in October. Thos Cook is shutting 200 of its 1300 branches. I wonder what Millipede will go on today at PMQs, an embarass du choix as Sarky might say.

I break here to listen to PMQs. Will there be any PM answers? I doubt it.

Cast iron fairly trounced Millipede at PMQs so Labour may be looking for a new leader sooner than expected. I see the Mail is reporting serious unrest in the LibDem ranks over Clegg's terrible performance over the last few days. Huhne the heir apparent is putting the boot in. Evrerything is not quite rosy for the boy however as it seems some Euroseptics may put a motion calling for a referendum. Better make that a vote of confidence Dave. Heads you win and Tails you win.

Tuesday, 13 December 2011

Farage's EUKIP , a me too party

After I wrote yesterdays blog I switched on the C4 news to find some members of the Farage Youth being interviewed on the streets of Feltham allegedly campaigning for UKIP's candidate standing in Thursday's by-election there. They seemed keen to repeat the Labour LibDem line that Cameron had isolated us in Europe lost our voice at the top table etc. Indeed they might as well have been the young LibDems or Labour youth except they are now all on the opposition front bench with Hettie.

So I picked up a few of their Furher's utterances on the same subject  and lo and behold he was parroting the Lib Dem Labour isolation line as well. So what is EUKIP for if all it can do is repeat the LibDemLab slogans|? When the prime minister of our country is under attack from the EU outside the country and fifth column Brussels Broadcasting Corporation inside the UK all Farage can do is join the BBC line.

The youth wing at least know that to get on the EU gravy train and be as wealthy as Nigel its best to say Ja Wohl mein Gruppenfuerher. Thinking is not encouraged in EUKIP. Blind obedience to the leader  is all that is required as it was in a former, but now disbanded thank God, youth organisation.

Where are the other members of the Cabal? They seem to keeping a very low profile or is Nigel as usual hogging all the TV spots!

It was good fun to watch Paxo on Newsnight yesterday making mincemeat of our neighbour Pantsdown. Is he the best the LibDems can find to put up to defend the cowardly Clegg? Paxo was in his best brassed off with another lying politician mode. Pants down is the most pompous man I know. He embodies the political elite. He persistently denigrates all who dare disagree with his EU fantasies. They are people as well you know Paddy entitled to their views and what is more they might just be right!

The BBC are doing their best to undermine our country in the eyes of the world. There are many mentally challenged US politicians who believe what they say. I do hope Obama realises the real threat to world stability an EU empire under Prussian leadership would pose. Sarkozy believes his United States of Europe will be superior to the US. He is a dangerous man, more so when he is behind in the polls.

Meanwhile on the markets yields on Italian and Spanish bonds continue to rise, the Euro continues to fall - good news for those of us going ski-ing. Things are not going to plan. Dr Frau Merkel's solution?  Let us have a another summit before Xmas.

Monday, 12 December 2011

Farage's too, too cosy relationship with the BBC. Why?

It was wall to wall Farage on the BBC over the weekend culminating in his appearance on the LibDem Andrew Marr show on Sunday. The BBC/Lib Dem propaganda lie of Britain now being isolated in Europe was peddled assiduously on the BBC worldwide to the huge detriment of our country. Why did Farage not challenge this patent lie? France and Germany have both put out statements today saying their relations with the UK are intact.

Its the same with the oft repeated claim that 3 million British jobs depend on our EU membership. Farage never asks the basis for this propaganda. Why not?

The answer is Farage and the BBC have a nauseating symbiotic relationship. Farage is free to do his usual monkey on a stick, grandstanding rant on the condition he does not tackle anything that could seriously damage the EU such as addressing the questions above. Nigel Farage is the BBC's Eurosceptic tame poodle. Nigel Farage is not a serious politician. He prefers the cheap shot to the hard work of serious argument. Poor EUKIP to saddle themselves with such a shallow leader.

As I write Cameron is giving a virtuoso performance in the Commons answering over 100 backbench questions on his EU treaty veto statement. Clegg was no where to be seen! A man who talks about walking tall in Europe! A typical slimy Lib Dem tactic!.  It was gratifying to see some Labour MPs, Kate Hooey, Graham Stringer, Frank Field etc supporting the PM. Its a pity the BBC cannot do likewise. Millipede's lack of any alternative policy was cruelly exposed.

On the markets the Italian managed to get a one year bond away at 5.95%.  Their 10 year bond rate closed at 7.11%, bail out territory again. Compare this with the slightly negative rate on a 3 month Dutch bill. This shows the markets are seeking safety and have doubts about the security of their money in Euroland banks.

Equity markets worldwide are down about 2 %.  For us the BBC is now as big a problem as the EU.

Sunday, 11 December 2011

Lessons from our colonial days on how to handle Merkozy

After McMillan made his wind of change in Africa speech in 1957 there was a huge increase in the justified movements for independence. These all followed a pattern of unity until the Brits left and then reversion to tribal boundaries and blood letting. The only thing uniting these movements was a desire to be rid of the Brits. Thus it is in Europe and now the Brits have been excluded from the club and are no longer there to be kicked the mid Europeans will revert to squabbling amongst themselves.

The lesson for Cameron is to do as little as possible ie keep on blocking any attempt to extend EU powers in the UK and wait. Sarkozy will of course blame every setback on the UK and the other Anglo Saxons but all Cameron has to do is smile sweetly and give them his calm down dear line. Doing nowt is the hardest thing to do in politics but it is on this occasion the best policy. The markets will sort out Sarkozy very rapidly.

Terry Smith put it very well , "All the UK is isolated from is an impending disaster; the eurozone will fragment with countries leaving and debt defaults. Its like being as isolated as the man who failed to get on the Titanic before it sailed".

The new . "solution" proposed by Merkozy is identical to the failed stability and growth pact enshrine in the Maastricht treaty. The markets have already sussed this so there will be more grief for Merkozy tomorrow.

Liam Halligan has a good piece in today's Sunday Telegraph. He castigates the 'breakthrough' of round tripping via the IMF to avoid national laws against funding bail outs as "deeply immoral". Sums up the EU. The ECB are at it too taking dodgy collateral and extending repo refinancing secured on such collateral to 3 years!

Merkozy will be held to account in the world's financial markets and in blood on the streets of Eurozone capitals. Already democratic obstacles are emerging to the Franco Prussian plans in Ireland, Holland, Denmark and Austria. Perhaps we will soon see these democratic countries governments replaced by EU bureaucrats. If not the UK may find itself some company sooner than the EU philes think.

Saturday, 10 December 2011

A military angle in Europe and the Falklands

The Argies have been kicking up recently about their claims to the Falklands. The decision by the Coalition to scrap our two serving carriers on the assumption we could borrow one from the French now looks very imprudent. The Argies will have noted the falling out of Cameron and the wannabe Napoleon Sarkozy will not have gone unnoticed in Buenos Aries by the Argies. The British Embassy will of course believe whatever the Argies tell them up to the invasion.

It would be wise to reinforce the Falkland garrison asap and strengthen the RAF presence and anti-aircraft missile defence there also. It is now very unwise to station Wills there. We should also ensure there is always at least one hunter killer British nuclear sub in the area and make sure the Argies no this. All the pro EU propaganda from the BBC will simply encourage the belief in Argentina that Britain is weak and isolated. Best to declare a 150 mile no Argie ships cordon round the Islands now and avoid trouble.

It was also good to see the US military head General Martin Dempsey saying he is concerned about, 'the potential for civil unrest' as Europe's financial crisis unfolds. He went on to say it was unclear the latest steps taken by EU leaders would be enough to hold the Eurozone together adding that a break up would have consequences for the Pentagon.

Wise words! The fatuous claims by the EU that it has kept the peace in Europe are simply lies and propaganda to suit their book. It is the US and NATO that has kept the peace in Europe since 1945, Sarkozy's French pathological  hatred of the Anglo Saxons blinds him to this obvious truth is very dangerous for all the peoples of Europe. The recent Merkozy orchestrated regime change in Greece and Italy has created a fertile breeding ground for political agitators to work in. Merkel and Sarkozy are making the same mistakes as Napoleon and Hitler.

Friday, 9 December 2011

Cast iron Dave plays a solid game

Continuing my cricket metaphor Dave put up a good rearguard action yesterday. It reminded me of a Boycott Atherton batting display, boring but immensely valuable for the side. The value of Dave's performance will only come to be realised in the coming months. I thought the BBC's coverage was unbelievably biased toward the EU. Cameron is our PM and deserves the support of our national broadcaster against EU lies and propaganda. The sooner the BBC is privatised the better.

I was appalled to hear the BBC report the outcome described as being well received by the bond market. Its a lie! Tonight Italian 10 year bonds closed at 6.83%, Greek at 32.62%, Portugal at 13.16%  all in bail out territory!  French bonds were over 1% more expensive than UK gilts. The BBC reporters are obviously totally innumerate.

The idea that there are now 26 countries solidly against the EU is laughable. All Merkozy has done is reiterate the previous growth and stability pact that was breeched in 2005 by France and Germany! They propose fines now for those that breech the rules. There is a saying in Scotland, 'Ye cannae tak the breeks of a Hieland man'. Or to put it in English how do you get money out of bankrupt countries. Surcharge their political elite is the only acceptable possibility but that's against the rules of our poltical rulers.

As with previous summit outcomes the proposals such as they are will fall apart under market scrutiny in next few weeks. Also the 26 will soon be squabbling in the best mid European tradition. Huge resentment will build up against Merkozy and even more against their appointed unelected Gauleitiers  like Monti. (Gauleiter (German pronunciation: [ˈɡaʊlaɪtə]) was the party leader of a regional branch of the NSDAP(more commonly known as the Nazi Party) or the head of a Gau or of a Reichsgau.) It made my blood boil to hear the unelected Monti slagging off Cameron. I hope he remembers what happened to Mussolini.Let them have their Franco Prussian rulers. They will soon want the Brits back. 

Cameron did not come back with anything new. Start with the Working Time Directive and the Common Fisheries policy and salami slice in the best EU manner. We may have just seen the start of the beginning of getting our country back!

Thursday, 8 December 2011

British PMs are the US presidents poodle

It was thus with Bill and Tony and Dubya and Tony/Gord and now Obama and Cast Iron Cameron. You want us to invade Iraq to cover your ass? Yes sir Mr President right away. You want us to go to Afghanistan to get our young people killed in an unwinnable war. Yes sir Mr President. Run the risk of a few Islasmic nutters killing 50 British citizens in London? No problem Mr President.

Thus it goes on and on. When will we learn? The latest series of undisclosed calls to Cameron from Obama order him to help fix the Eurozone. Pay for it out of the box marked British interests and on no account stand up for your own people. If you rock the boat Cast Iron it could cost me my second term as president so don't argue or I will be across the pond to kick ass starting with yours. I guess you know all about that from your days at Eton so I'll use a sharp cricket stump.

The tall guy on the steps of the Elysee with Sarky two days ago, well anybody next to Sarky looks tall even his wife, was Timothy Geitner, US Treasury secretary. He was there to give Sarky the same message. If you don't fix the Eurozone quick Obama is going to lose!

I thought it was great when the US elected Obama, a black man, as president. I changed my mind after his sordid vote seeking performance over the BP oil spill when around 12 guys were killed on the rig BP had hired from the US company Transocean. In Bhopal the American company Union Carbide was responsible for the deaths of around 25000 Indians foollwing a leak of toxic chemicals at its plant there. Funny we never here from Obama about that but you see Indians, especially dead ones, have no votes in US presidential elections.

The US are exerting huge pressure on all concerned to fix the Eurozone before next November's presidential elections. Sorry Mr President but it can't be fixed because of a fundamental design flaw. Still have a nice day and enjoy kicking ass!

Wednesday, 7 December 2011

Cast iron Dave is on a sticky wicket

Just as I finished my blog yesterday Cast Iron came on the TV announcing he was going in to bat for the City on Friday against the demon EU opening bowlers Sarky and Merky with Barroso and Rumpy as first change. Cast Iron has a poor average of zero against EU bowling. He has threatened to use his veto but the EU bowlers know  he is poor against the short pitched stuff so will ensure he gets plenty of it and they will get him out pretty quickly!

Cameron's antics reminds me of that children's party game where you have to keep your hands and feet on widely spaced coloured circles. His circles are his back bench eurosceptics plus BoJo, his back bench Europhiles plus his LibDem 'allies', saving his beloved Eurozone and keeping Tory financial backers in the City onside and writing the cheques. Quite a stretch for the man of iron! No wonder he did not look well today.

On the markets Germany got its 5bn € bund auction away today twice covered. No surprise there as the Gestapo had previously visited the four big players, Dodgy, Comical, Dreadful and Hypothetical with the rubber truncheons so they knew what to do. Its all been stage managed. Merkel could not afford a repeat of the uncovered 23 Nov bund auction fiasco before her great moment when she is crowned the Empress of Europe.

The Tory backbenchers put on a good show today at PMQs. Dave and Pinnochio Clegg could have to concede a referendum on our EU membership. It will be a very dirty fight. I can remember the dirty tricks used in the 1975 Wilson referendum by the Europhiles and the EU.

Is EUKIP prepared for the fight? Of course not! They won't know what has hit them in such a campaign. The Europhile media have a huge amount of unpublished damaging material on EUKIP'S leadership. EUKIP is of course still adding to this pile. Today in the DT Stephen Pollard writing on lobbyists describes EUKIP latest star recruit thus, ' "The cash for questions" scandal in which Neil Hamilton and Tom Smith, two Conservative MPs , were found to have been paid cash by a lobbyist, Ian Greer,to ask questions in Parliament on behalf of Mohammed Fayed was as straightforward an example of tainted politics as you could imagine.'

The Tories ditched Hamilton as an electoral liability. He will be an albatross round EUKIP's neck.  Farage and his MEP cabal will retain their lucrative EU positions either way. Who said there was no money in politics?

Tuesday, 6 December 2011

Dave & Gideon, the markets are watching you!

So far the boy Dave and his oik friend Gideon call me George have escaped the scrutiny of the bond market which had bigger Italian fish to fry. This honeymoon period is now coming to and end signalled by UK 10 year gilt yields starting to creep up 2.30 % tonight. This even with Bank of England  QE support that has so far bought up 200 bn £ of gilts! Gilts have also benefited as a funk hole for money wishing to exit the Eurozone but they may soon realise its out of the frying pan into the fire. I cannot see the UK economy standing up to close scrutiny. So far the incredible incompetence of Merkozy has been the focus of the market's attention but that will pass and it will be on to fresh pasture.

The UK political elite are now in referendum denial mode with Pinnochio Clegg's nose getting longer and longer and Dave's cherry red cheeks blushing even more. They are treating the great British public like idiots to be feted for 3weeks every 5 years and then ignored. Perhaps when Gideon's austerity measures start to bite and unemployment rise the public might become just a little bit angry with LibDem lies. They forced an unwanted AV referendum on us for their own sordid electoral advantage and now deny us the referendum on EU  membership so many of us want. The are neither Liberal or Democratic but I can offer them  a morsel of comfort. As long as Nigel Farage remains EUKIP leader the chance of the UK electorate voting to leave the EU is vanishingly small.

To win such a referendum will take organisation, money and political talent. I am reasonably certain someone like Stuart Wheeler might supply the money and Nikki Sinclaire has shown she can organise a referendum. It will however need a lot of political talent like Daniel Hanaan, IDS and people of similar calibre to campaign for the leave the anti-EU side. EUKIP's fruit cakes and loonies will need to be kept in a dark room for the duration of the campaign along with Fuerher Farage. Make no mistake the LibDems will fight a very dirty campaign. They are renowned for it.

Our best ally in this struggle will be the EU Markozy dictatorship. There is a huge resentment in Europe against The Germans and the French are not liked either. All Dave has to do is not support Merkozy and play the repatriation of powers card for all he is worth. If Clegg opens his mouth just call an election. He won't be around a month later to bother Dave or the UK electorate either.

Monday, 5 December 2011

And for the next Franco Prussian coup d'etat

There can be no doubt now that Germany runs the EU. Following their successful regime change operations in Greece and Italy Merkel and her poison dwarf Sarkozy have expanded their ambitions to the whole Eurozone and will control the budget of all the states who are in the  Euro.

And what did our great political leaders Cameron, Clegg & Millipede have to say about this unprecedented power grab? Well nothing, so no change there then.

The markets desperate for good news rallied with Italian 10 year yields dropping below 6% for the first time for 6 weeks. All helped by the IMF, now run by the fragant frogette Christine, announcing today it  was lending the Greeks 2.2 bn  € most of which will go straight to French banks. Quelle surprise! Unfortunately these Anglo Saxon party poopers the ratings agency S&P put France, Germany, Netherlands, Luxembourg Finalnd & Austria on negative credit watch. Wait and see what happens at the next Eurozone debt auction when bankers have to put up real money. Words are easy but collecting tax in a society whose national sport is tax evasion is very difdicult/impossible I opine rates will rise or the auction will be uncovered.

And where is Farage's EUKIP? Well nowhere as usual.

I had hoped there was a slight chance of a UK referendum on our membership of the EU. That is now less likely. Cameron and Clegg have to hang together or they will hang separately. They know they cannot win a referendum so there will be no referendum. Simples. Sordid party interests trump our countries' needs. Clegg of course has his eye on a lucrative EU position like Kinnock, Mrs Kinnock and Kinnock junior held. The EU is expert at incentivising the political elite and ensuring the real power stays with them not the people of Europe. Its a corrupt system that will eventually lead to a bloody revolution for which of course the ordinary people will be blamed.

As for repatriating powers from the EU its not the right time says CleggCam. Wait for three years until we sort out the Eurozone problems and then we will get our powers back. Listen Dave things are being settled right now. This is exactly the right time to do it. Wait for 3 years and the Eurocrats will laugh at them and say where were you 3 years ago when we were deciding these matters? The ClegCam tale is just a fairy story. I stopped believing in them years ago just as I stopped believing Nigel Farage could get us out of the EU 5 minutes after I met him.

Sunday, 4 December 2011

Watch politicians actions not their lips

There is a rumour current in Brussels that many of the Eurocrats are seeking safe bank funk holes for their money. This follows on the stories of some Euroland banks being in difficulties and leading to the Fed organised dollar easing of swap lines. Its a very indicative development. These people will know more of what is really going on than the journalists. If they are checking out the lifeboats its a sign that the Titanic project may be in real difficulties.

I remember once when I was at the BoE as a result of some research I had done I wrote a note on the parlous state of some UK insurance companies. I was amazed the people who then approached me to say if the insurance office they had their funds with was in trouble! They were not bothered at all about the systemic risk to our financial structures which was why I had written the note!

Alan Wood sent me a copy of a rather amusing variant on the flogging a dead horse syndrome that is currently in vogue in Brussels

 The Dead Horse Theory
The tribal wisdom of the Dakota Indians, passed on from generation to generation, says that; When you discover that you are riding a dead horse, best strategy is to dismount.

However, in our government more advanced strategies are often employed, such as:

?1. Buying a stronger (and more expensive) whip.
?2. Changing riders.
?3. Appointing a committee to study the horse.
?4. Arranging to trips to other countries to see how other cultures ride dead horses.
?5. Lowering the standards so that dead horses can be included.
?6. Reclassifying the dead horse as living-impaired.
?7. Hiring outside contractors to ride the dead horse.
?8. Harnessing several dead horses together to increase efficiency.
?9. Providing additional funding and/or training to increase dead horse's performance.
?10. Doing a productivity study to see if lighter riders would improve the dead horse's performance.
?11. Declaring that as the dead horse does not have to be fed, it is less costly, carries lower overhead and therefore contributes substantially more to the bottom line of the economy than do some live horses.
?12. Rewriting the expected performance requirements for all horses.
?And of course....
?13. Promoting the dead horse to a supervisory position.
Many a true word is spoken in jest! Many horses died in Napoleon's retreat from Moscow but maybe Sarky has not read his history. General Winter defeated Napper and Adolf. I hope the economic winter will defeat Sarky and Merky. 

Saturday, 3 December 2011

Will Merkel succeed where Napoleon and Hitler failed?

Since the reign of Elizabeth I British foreign policy has been based on preventing the rise of a single dominant continental power. To that end we fought with the Germans against Napoleon's French Continental system and with the French against the German armies of the Kaiser and Hitler. It has worked for over 400 years but apparently our political elite know better and are actively encouraging the rise of a continental superpower so that they can  speak with a bigger voice on the world stage and satisfy their pathetic egos. The truth is as Elizabeth I and Pitt knew a continental superpower would extinguish the British voice for ever.

We have a chance to use the current Eurozone financial crisis to start to get back some of our sovereignty given away by Heath and his successors but I fear our political leaders are not what they were. Since Margaret Thatcher we have been led by pygmies. The Irish have already found out the extent of Merkel's power when their latest leader Enda Kenny visited Berlin to members of the Bundestag already studying details of the proposed Irish budget which was not due to announced for a month and had not been shown to the Irish parliament. No one knows how this happened!

Merkel holds all the cards now but it will cost her a lot financially and politically to play them. I think she will push it as hard as he can for Germany's advantage and then play her trump and we may well be living under German rule like the rest of Europe for a very long time. Is this what our fathers and grandfathers fought two world wars for?

The only serious opposition to Merkel will come from the bond market and her own electorate. For our sake I hope the bond market wins but its a hope not an expectation. It s impossible to predict what our craven political elite will do to save their own skins.


Friday, 2 December 2011

Pressure grows on Cameron

The boy is between a rock and a hard place domestically and on the European front. He is not a conviction politician. He is a PR man with no real beliefs in anything but himself. He sounded the retreat from his repatriate powers position on Tuesday with his employment minister Grayling abandoning demands to repatriate employment powers because of 'the urgency of the eurozone crisis'. His fall back position is to protect the position of the non-Eurozone EU powers when the Franco Prussian panzers roll forward. This is clearly an untenable position that will leave Merkozy free to pick of the non-Eurozone countries one by one once the Dr Frau has subdued her rebellious PIGS.

His country is in dire economic straits a large part of which is caused by EU regulatory work time directives strangling British business. As always when the first shots are fired Dave is the first to retreat. He reminds me of my Father's old joke that he joined the infantry not the cavalry so as not to have a horse slowing him down when the retreat sounded. Sarkozy already treats him like shit and Dave just stands there and takes it. Does he not make you ashamed to be British. He will soon be a target for the Berlusconi treatment.

On the home front he faces increasing union and civil unrest. He cannot hope to face down the unions on a field of rising unemployment and declining living standards. The unions will win. The traditional way out for a national leader in this predicament is to blame it on Johnny Foreigner. Dave cannot do this as his propaganda arm the BBC speaks for the EU as does the fifth column Clegg, Huhne, Cable and Alexander in his cabinet who will leak anything he proposes that might damage their beloved EU in the most damaging way.

He will face a series of demands for yet more anti EU referendums. His LibDem arm will of course oppose these demands but his loyal but discontented troops who see the spoils of government going unfairly to the LibDems and not them will support these anti-EU calls for all they are worth. They know the kick Johnny Foreigner tactic works.

His chief technocrat is busily engaged in shooting any slight economic recovery in the foot. Asking the banks to raise yet more capital is insane in the current climate. Banks are uninvestable  right now. No one in their right mind would put more money into banks in the present climate. As for cutting bankers bonuses not even Warren Buffet could make that one stick!

There are one or two glimmers of hope. Labour has its worst leader since Michael Foot. He misses open goals so regularly he really should be playing for England. There is no love lost between Sarky and Merkel and her desire for German hegemony in Europe awakes old memories of the master race syndrome.

The Yanks by flooding the market with dollars have bought the EU a little time  however if the Republicans find themselves a credible presidential candidate then that source of support will quickly dry up.

I cannot see this coalition going the distance. For the first time since 1972 I can smell the possibility of an election or referendum on us leaving the EU. Will EUKIP be mobilised for this great battle? Not while Farage remains as leader. If he stays he will literally piss away in the bars of Brussels the chance to save our country.

Thursday, 1 December 2011

So what did the Yanks do to help out the Eurozone and why?

Formally a consortium of central banks led and organised by the US Fed agreed to lower the cost of existing dollar swap lines by 0.5% from 5th Dec. These central banks were all obviously singing from the same hymn sheet. It looks like a pre-arranged contingency plan agreed by the central bankers club but what was the contingency that triggered their plan? Clearly it was one or more major Eurozone banks could not access dollar liquidity at any price to roll over their dollar positions. Other banks simply did not want to lend to them. This was exactly the scenario that brought down Northern Rock, however as it was a comparatively small bank it posed no major systemic threats to the banking system.

This time it must have been one or more big Eurozone banks most likely French but possibly German that were in real trouble. The Yanks stepped in and not for the first time pulled the Europeans chestnuts out of the fire. They won't get any thanks for this from the EU elite who will continue to blame the failure of their great project not on its flawed design but on the perfidious Anglo Saxons.

This has  been building up for some time. John Redwood points out, " More and more of the business that used to go through the inter-bank market now goes through the Central bank of the system. Commercial banks do not trust each other enough to lend and borrow between themselves on a big enough scale for their needs. The weekly liquidity supplied by the ECB to banks rose to Euro 265 billion." They of course get less interest on their money than they would get on the inter bank market but they are sure they will be repaid in full. They are scared to lend in size to each other so for sure they won't be lending to business either. Bad news for the Eurozone economy.

What the Yanks did has worked at least in the short term.Italian 10 years dropped below 7% to 6.7% with Spanish bonds dropping to 5.8%. Less obvious but I think more significant was the drop in French 10 year rates to 3.1% a spread to gilts of 80 basis points. This spread has been well over 100 basis points for the last month.  It looks like it may have been a French bank that was in difficulties. The French had a relatively successful bond auction today which I suspect was largely French bank activity.

But its only a short term liquidity fix and does nothing to address the underlying insolvency of many Eurozone countries. Tonight Sky reported that the Spanish central bank  expected the crisis to worsen.  A strange statement given Spain had a relatively successful bond auction today. Sure they paid a lot more than last time but they sold €3.5 bn bonds. I suspect banks were coerced into making it a success.

On the home front MAK was putting on his hair shirt and urging banks to conserve capital and cut bonuses. Ask not why MAK is not popular. I wish GB had appointed Andrew Crockett or Howard Davies 8 years ago.

On the UKIP front its good to see John Petley back writing on the EU. He is an able and talented man and like many of that ilk kicked out by the talentless Farage  Cabal.